COVID Covid-19 vaccines: excitement or fear?

[Ygggdrasil]

A source that people are speculating?

Is there a reason why people would expect adverse "effects of a vaccine may manifest/increase over time." Certainly we don't have long term data on vaccine safety that goes beyond ~2 months, so we can't say that there are no adverse effects that would manifest over a longer time period. However, this is different than making the claim that we would expect a vaccine that shows good short term safety to have adverse effects that would manifest over a longer time scale. For example, from our experience with many other vaccines, adverse events from vaccines tend to manifest fairly soon after vaccination and are temporary. While the mRNA vaccines are different from other vaccines, there is no reason to think that the technology would be more likely to cause longer-term effects as the mRNAs are quickly degraded in the body.

 

[Rive]

The difference is the long term effects decrease over time...

With that possible damage made to vein walls, I would expect side effects becoming considerably worse over time.

Anyway. The point is, I can't understand why there are such expectations glued to the 'dead' vaccine while seemingly no such fears for the 'wild' virus itself. Beats me.

 

[russ_watters]

[reverse ordered]
However, this is different than making the claim that we would expect a vaccine that shows good short term safety to have adverse effects that would manifest over a longer time scale.

Nobody has made such a claim, that I've seen.

Is there a reason why people would expect adverse "effects of a vaccine may manifest/increase over time." Certainly we don't have long term data on vaccine safety that goes beyond ~2 months, so we can't say that there are no adverse effects that would manifest over a longer time period.

The lack of long-term data is exactly the "problem" for people who have a fear of the unknown. For all we know, everyone who gets the vaccine could drop dead a year after getting it. We have no data to say one way or another whether that is possible, and people fill-up the information gap with wild speculation and fear. Is it even remotely likely? No, but good luck trying to prove it to someone with fear/trust issues.

[edit] I used to have the same argument with people who were afraid of/against genetically modified crops. The question is: how much long-term data is necessary to prove there are no adverse long-term effects? The answer is always: "more".

 

[waternohitter]

Let's put this convo a rest and celebrate the new year with our family. How are you guys doing right now?

 

[Rive]

Why do people think that Covid can't have: won't have long term effects?

Long, bad Covid

And this is just part of the thing. I suppose there will be more coming with long term effect of (parially recovered) blood vessel damages.

Vaccine vs. Covid 'live' - hard to expect worse from a vaccine, yet fear from 'long term vaccine' is driving the refusal, while 'long Covid' is kind of taken as no concern.

Homo Sapiens Weirdos

 

[Motore]

To my (somewhat limited) knowledge of vaccines and the imune system, this mRNA vaccine seems way safer than the inactivated or dead virus vaccines. And way way way way safer then getting the virus. I am super excited to get it. I just hope I get the vaccine before I contract the virus...

 

[fluidistic]

I have read that the spike protein of the sars-cov2 virus can cause brain fog (doesn't sound healthy, isn't it? Source https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201217154046.htm). Does this mean that the vaccine(s) that make our cells make these spike proteins can cause brain fog?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I have read that the spike protein of the sars-cov2 virus can cause brain fog (doesn't sound healthy, isn't it? Source https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201217154046.htm). Does this mean that the vaccine(s) that make our cells make these spike proteins can cause brain fog?

1) The paper cited by the article (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-020-00771-8) shows that the spike protein can cross the blood-brain barrier to enter the brain. Based on this data, the article speculates that the SARS-CoV-2 virus infecting cells in the brain could cause some of the cognitive symptoms associated with COVID-19. They do not argue that is the spike protein alone causing these effects.

2) The mRNA vaccines are injected intramuscularly in the arm and would be expected to act mostly locally in that area (only causing cells in the immediate vicinity to take up the mRNA and begin producing spike protein). The spike proteins produced by the vaccine would be tethered to the membranes of the cells that produced them, so they would not be free to circulate through the blood and enter the brain.

3) From the phase 3 clinical trials of both the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines, we have data on tens of thousands of individuals who have received the vaccine, and researchers have tracked the side effects experienced by those individuals. The side effects are consistent with what one would expect for a vaccine, and researchers do not see lasting cognitive effects similar to those experienced by people with COVID-19.

 

[Frodo]

US Deaths from Covid-19 to 10 Jan 2021: 365,597 CDC COVID Data Tracker

There is no sign of the death rate even slowing - it's now over 3,000 deaths per day.

US soldiers killed in Vietnam war: 58,220 US National Archives

At the current death rate this equates to about 20 days of Covid deaths.

And some people still refuse to think it is a problem ...

Remember every time you see someone without a mask that he or she is endangering everyone in his or her vicinity.

You wear a mask primarily to protect other people. But many people don't care about others and put their trivial inconvenience of wearing one as being more important than potentially killing someone.

 

[bhobba]

The rate of Bell's Palsy in the group was not much different from the rate in the general population, and one person who received the placebo also developed Bell's Palsy. Maybe we should outlaw placebo injections?

That's right. Bell's Palsy is more common than many think. The lifetime risk is about 1 in 50-60. There are two main things if you do get it. Go on prednisone immediately, the quicker the better, and hydrate your eye with a lanolin or gel based eye hydrator to prevent exposure keratopathy. I goofed on the second bit and used a product like liquid tears which is not powerful enough. I ended up with a small corneal ulcer, but saw an opthamologist who got me on the correct stuff. So not only go on the prednisone see an opthamologist. Doing that, while quite an unpleasant experience (mine lasted 6 months) the chance of it not going away and/or causing permanent damage is small.

 

[gmax137]

Remember every time you see someone without a mask that he or she is endangering everyone in his or her vicinity.

You wear a mask primarily to protect other people. But many people don't care about others and put their trivial inconvenience of wearing one as being more important than potentially killing someone.

Just anecdotally, I have not seen anyone in public without a mask in months. Northern Nevada, Reno area. Here's the Washoe county (Reno) data.

 

[bhobba]

And some people still refuse to think it is a problem ...

They are mad and can't do simple math. They claim things like for 99.8% of people that get it, its mild and not life threatening ie about the same as a bad flu season. To be fair until I thought it through carefully I thought so as well. Well here is just one fact. 10% of the population has diabeties, and 10% of those with diabeties that get it die. That means a death rate of at least 1% - and that is just one comorbidity (yes I know it is simplistic - those with comorbidities will take greater precautions). Australia where I am is a bit high at about 3% overall - it was a lot lower before it got into nursing homes in Victoria (due to bonking security guards in hotel quarintine - but that's another story) where death rates are very high:
https://hellocaremail.com.au/austra...d-death-nursing-homes-royal-commission-hears/.

Interestingly India does better than we do as far as death rates go (number of deaths are of course much higher). Why may have something to do with the following:
.

This was after the following conference:
https://www.thehindu.com/news/natio...I_z2QhV0V2Yj2a_f4zqWLxEF2SH5gtMCm6J78GxNu-sv8

Professor Borody is working on a Double Blind study on its effectiveness in the US so it can be FDA and the Australian equivalent (TGA) approved as a Covid treatment/preventative. He is doing it at his own expense which personally makes me mad - he may be wrong and the DBT will show if he is, but the payoff is so big why the government can't pay for it beats me. Professor Borody has been through it all before with his Peptic Ulcer treatment so he is philosophical about it. Anyway we need to await the results. Personally, and this is just me, if I get Covid I will go on the treatment - but then again here in Aus the chance of any single person getting it is virtually zero - virtually all cases we get now are leakages from overseas quarantine facilities - very very little community transmission.

Thanks
Bill

 

[russ_watters]

Just anecdotally, I have not seen anyone in public without a mask in months. Northern Nevada, Reno area.

That's pretty amazing. I was out walking in Philly this weekend and maybe 90% were wearing masks. I was out for maybe 2 hours and saw dozens without masks. Some were exercising (running/biking), but not all.

The outside stuff doesn't concern me though, since transmission outdoors is extremely unlikely unless you are huddled together. What concerns me is that in PA (and NJ), businesses and schools started re-opening on 1/4, despite not yet knowing what the holiday spike was going to look like.

 

[bhobba]

That's pretty amazing. I was out walking in Philly this weekend and maybe 90% were wearing masks. I was out for maybe 2 hours and saw dozens without masks. Some were exercising (running/biking), but not all.

The outside stuff doesn't concern me though, since transmission outdoors is extremely unlikely unless you are huddled together. What concerns me is that in PA (and NJ), businesses and schools started re-opening on 1/4, despite not yet knowing what the holiday spike was going to look like.

True.

The thing that surprised me was when Aussi reporters returned from covering the US election they had to go into 14 days quarantine. While in quarantine they were asked what surprised them most about the US. They nearly all said even in places where it was not required was the high rate of mask wearing. It's not required in Taiwan either, and they are generally considered worlds best practice, but most do it voluntarily.

Here in Aus, at least where I am in Brisbane, unless it is compulsory most do not do it. And yes outdoors it is not that big a risk, not only because you are not as close, but Covid is killed by ultraviolet light. Personally I always wear it - but hardly ever go out.

Thanks
Bill

 

[berkeman]

Personally I always wear it

You wearing a surgical mask protects others. If others are not complying, wear a well-fitting N95 mask to protect you and others. If you want tips on how to get a good N95 fit, PM me.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

You wearing a surgical mask protects others. If others are not complying, wear a well-fitting N95 mask to protect you and others. If you want tips on how to get a good N95 fit, PM me.

According to the CDC, even cloth masks provide some protection to the person wearing the mask (though definitely not as much protection as an N95 mask):

Filtration for Personal Protection
Studies demonstrate that cloth mask materials can also reduce wearers’ exposure to infectious droplets through filtration, including filtration of fine droplets and particles less than 10 microns. The relative filtration effectiveness of various masks has varied widely across studies, in large part due to variation in experimental design and particle sizes analyzed. Multiple layers of cloth with higher thread counts have demonstrated superior performance compared to single layers of cloth with lower thread counts, in some cases filtering nearly 50% of fine particles less than 1 micron .14,17-29 Some materials (e.g., polypropylene) may enhance filtering effectiveness by generating triboelectric charge (a form of static electricity) that enhances capture of charged particles18,30 while others (e.g., silk) may help repel moist droplets31 and reduce fabric wetting and thus maintain breathability and comfort.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

 

[berkeman]

According to the CDC, even cloth masks provide some protection to the person wearing the mask (though definitely not as much protection as an N95 mask):

Sure, but I'm not wearing a surgical mask on any of my shifts.

 

[Jarvis323]

Is there any reliable way to track vaccine related injury/death beyond the trials?

It would be nice to get more data in order to gauge which vaccine is safest.

So far I am thinking that Moderna might be the best bet, since I've heard of no serious complications, Fauci chose Moderna, and the company has a clean (albeit non-existent) record.

Pfizer's vaccine has seemed to cause some allergic reactions, and at least one 55 year old doctor died following taking their vaccine from a type of immune system malfunction.

 

[PeroK]

US Deaths from Covid-19 to 10 Jan 2021: 365,597 CDC COVID Data Tracker

There is no sign of the death rate even slowing - it's now over 3,000 deaths per day.

US soldiers killed in Vietnam war: 58,220 US National Archives

This struck me as odd, given I remember being excoriated by you as a US isolationist:

I think you are, as is so often the case in this forum, US isolationist and US centric - the figures are for the US. Even so, I expect they will vary from state to state and among different indigenous groups for example.

There is a whole other world out there for you to discover when you remove your blinkers.

 

[Nudiko]

I still don't have an exact fixed opinion about vaccine in my head. I am currently at my parent's property in Spain here and a lot of locals are not for vaccine.
I was watching a very interesting TV episode about a plague and a Spanish flu disease which we had in the past and at those times there was almost no medicine and proper doctors, equipment and so on. Huge amount of people died and still somehow population raised and we are now at the stage of 6 billions people. So this virus is not the first and not the last virus on our planet for sure. Will be more and will be different, it's just a question how we get used to it.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Is there any reliable way to track vaccine related injury/death beyond the trials?

It would be nice to get more data in order to gauge which vaccine is safest.

So far I am thinking that Moderna might be the best bet, since I've heard of no serious complications, Fauci chose Moderna, and the company has a clean (albeit non-existent) record.

Pfizer's vaccine has seemed to cause some allergic reactions, and at least one 55 year old doctor died following taking their vaccine from a type of immune system malfunction.

Yes, the US maintains a vaccine adverse event reporting system for all vaccines in use: https://vaers.hhs.gov/

Healthcare providers are required to report to VAERS the following adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination [under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)], and other adverse events if later revised by CDC:

• Vaccine administration errors, whether or not associated with an adverse event (AE)
• Serious AEs regardless of causality. Serious AEs per FDA are defined as:
  1. Death;
  2. A life-threatening AE;
  3. Inpatient hospitalization or prolongation of existing hospitalization;
  4. A persistent or significant incapacity or substantial disruption of the ability to conduct normal life functions;
  5. A congenital anomaly/birth defect;
  6. An important medical event that based on appropriate medical judgement may jeopardize the individual and may require medical or surgical intervention to prevent one of the outcomes listed above.
• Cases of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome
• Cases of COVID-19 that result in hospitalization or death

Healthcare providers are encouraged to report to VAERS any additional clinically significant AEs following vaccination, even if they are not sure if vaccination caused the event.

Also report any additional select AEs and/or any revised safety reporting requirements per FDA’s conditions of authorized use of vaccine(s) throughout the duration of any COVID-19 Vaccine being authorized under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).

https://vaers.hhs.gov/faq.html

These data are used to find warning signs that any vaccines in use could be unsafe: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Pfizer's vaccine has seemed to cause some allergic reactions, and at least one 55 year old doctor died following taking their vaccine from a type of immune system malfunction.

Here's more information of the circumstances of the doctor's death:

A Florida doctor has died several weeks after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, although it's not yet clear whether his death Monday was related to the shot he received on Dec. 18.

Dr. Gregory Michael, 56, an OB-GYN at Mount Sinai Medical Center in Miami Beach, died after suffering a hemorrhagic stroke apparently resulting from a lack of platelets.

Miami medical examiners are investigating his death, the Florida Department of Health said in a statement.

"The CDC and FDA are responsible for reviewing COVID-19 vaccine safety data and presenting that information for federal recommendations on vaccine administration," communications director Jason Mahon said in an email. "The state will continue to provide all available information to the CDC as they lead this investigation."

The condition she said led to his stroke, called thrombocytopenia, results from a lower-than-normal number of platelets, which help the blood clot.

In extremely rare cases, the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine has been linked to thrombocytopenia in children, according to a 2003 study. The condition can also be caused by cancer, anemia, heavy drinking, viruses, some genetic conditions, toxic chemicals and medications such as diuretics and the rarely used antibiotic chloramphenicol.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...der-investigation-gregory-michael/6574414002/

 

[Frodo]

This struck me as odd, given I remember being excoriated by you as a US isolationist:

Where countries are mentioned or can be inferred, posts 3, 7, 9, 10, 16, 20, 51 and 52 talk implicitly about the US (eg Let ten million people - still only 3% of the population in #7) or explicitly about the US (eg all links in #52 are to US sources). No other country is mentioned (apart from Bell's Palsy in Alberta). I am sure other posts too are based on US experience but do not mention it. One post refers to a UK study.

I therefore posted US figures as being relevant to that discussion.

Had posts 3, 7, 9, 10, 16, 20, 51 and 52 talked about, say, France I would have posted French figures.

By the way, thanks for validating my original point. I think even you will agree that this thread is rather US centric.

 

[Jarvis323]

Here's more information of the circumstances of the doctor's death:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...der-investigation-gregory-michael/6574414002/

I read he was diagnosed with immune thrombocytopenia, which is characterized as an auto immune disorder where your immune system attacks your blood. I guess the 'immune' part would be an important distinction, if it is true, as immune malfunction is the kind of thing people are worried about when it comes to these vaccines.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ne...of-taking-and-avoiding-the-covid-vaccine/amp/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immune_thrombocytopenic_purpura

 

[HAYAO]

I'm absolutely thrilled, but I can understand why some people can get paranoid about it.

Public doesn't always think rationally, and neither does the media. People overly fear plane crashes and nuclear power plants (even if they see a data that irrefutably prove their safeness), and the media are quite good at encouraging panic. People in Japan was panicking about 2011 Fukushima accident and how it's going to cause cancer to most people in 5 years or something and kill many people in 10 years, as some media outlet has claimed. I was skeptical ever since I saw the data, and have been telling my parents (who temporarily ran from Tokyo to Nagasaki to prevent exposure to radiation) to stop overreacting and needlessly spending money on things. 10 years has passed and no civilian died by cancer caused by radiation, nor are there any unambiguous study showing that people developed cancer because of it.

Sorry for the digression, but anyhow, any medicine or vaccines are going to have some sort of risks. All human body are not completely identical, but the chance of surviving by taking it is still much better than the chance of dying not taking it. Unless you have a serious medical reasons for not taking the vaccine, it's completely irrational to not take it.

 

[bhobba]

You wearing a surgical mask protects others. If others are not complying, wear a well-fitting N95 mask to protect you and others. If you want tips on how to get a good N95 fit, PM me.

At the moment there is no community transmission here in Brissy. We had a scare and a quick lockdown that has now finished. Believe it or not my psychiatrist said if he thinks things get bad enough he will arrange N95 masks for me. But at the moment he is not worried. Why from all the specialists I see it was my psychiatrist that took the issue up is rather strange.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

One thing I found out last night from an interview with an immunologist about the Oxford vaccine is it is now known to be like the Flu vaccine. It only has about a 60-70% protection rate (maybe 90% if the half dose first then the full dose later is used - but that is still being investigated). We need at least 90% for herd immunity, especially with the more virulent UK strain doing the rounds. But interestingly with the Oxford vaccine, if you are vaccinated and get it, it is of much lower severity, and so far at least has a 100% survival rate. This is similar to the Flu vaccine - if you get the Flu and are vaccinated it is much less severe and your chance of dying is much reduced - I seem to recall reading it reduces deaths by nearly 90%. Here in Aus those in the high risk group (which I am) will be offered the choice - the Pfizer vaccine or the Oxford one. The doctor will probably make the choice for them and give them the Pfizer vaccine. Me - I am not so sure - I want to see the data on what happens if you do manage to get it. If it's not like the Oxford vaccine then I may opt for that. Most here in Aus are up in arms about the limited amount of Pfizer vaccine Australia has secured, wanting herd immunity. Negotiations have failed to get any more than the 10 million doses we previously secured. If the 90% effectiveness for the Oxford vaccine works out we may still get herd immunity. Me - I am not so sure. These are just the first vaccines available. Better ones will likely be available in the next year or so. As long as it significantly reduces severity if you get it and prevents death I am happy with the Oxford vaccine for the time being. And if the Pfizer vaccine does not prevent death if you are unlucky enough to get it - I will discuss it with my doctor and may request the Oxford one. We need to wait an see - which fortuneately Australia is in a good position to do.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ygggdrasil]

One thing I found out last night from an interview with an immunologist about the Oxford vaccine is it is now known to be like the Flu vaccine. It only has about a 60-70% protection rate (maybe 90% if the half dose first then the full dose later is used - but that is still being investigated). We need at least 90% for herd immunity, especially with the more virulent UK strain doing the rounds. But interestingly with the Oxford vaccine, if you are vaccinated and get it, it is of much lower severity, and so far at least has a 100% survival rate. This is similar to the Flu vaccine - if you get the Flu and are vaccinated it is much less severe and your chance of dying is much reduced - I seem to recall reading it reduces deaths by nearly 90%. Here in Aus those in the high risk group (which I am) will be offered the choice - the Pfizer vaccine or the Oxford one. The doctor will probably make the choice for them and give them the Pfizer vaccine. Me - I am not so sure - I want to see the data on what happens if you do manage to get it. If it's not like the Oxford vaccine then I may opt for that. Most here in Aus are up in arms about the limited amount of Pfizer vaccine Australia has secured, wanting herd immunity. Negotiations have failed to get any more than the 10 million doses we previously secured. If the 90% effectiveness for the Oxford vaccine works out we may still get herd immunity. Me - I am not so sure. These are just the first vaccines available. Better ones will likely be available in the next year or so. As long as it significantly reduces severity if you get it and prevents death I am happy with the Oxford vaccine for the time being. And if the Pfizer vaccine does not prevent death if you are unlucky enough to get it - I will discuss it with my doctor and may request the Oxford one. We need to wait an see - which fortuneately Australia is in a good position to do.

Thanks
Bill

Phase 3 clinical trial data has been published for both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines:
Pfizer-BioNTech: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
Oxford-AstraZeneca: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

Both appear to provide protection against severe COVID-19. For the Pfizer vaccine, they observed 1 case of severe COVID-19 in the 21,669 vaccinated individuals versus 9 severe cases in the 21,686 individuals in the placebo group, corresponding to a 89% efficacy in preventing severe COVID-19 (albeit, it's hard to estimate this number with such low counts).

For the Oxford vaccine, they observed no hospitalizations or severe COVID-19 cases in the 12,021 vaccinated individuals versus 5 hospitalizations and 1 severe COVID-19 cases in the 11,724 individuals in the placebo group.

 

[Cobul]

In Norway, could the 26 elderly who died be related to the vaccine?

Norway reviewing Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine deaths of frail and elderly patients - CNN

 

[waternohitter]

Phase 3 clinical trial data has been published for both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines:
Pfizer-BioNTech: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
Oxford-AstraZeneca: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

Both appear to provide protection against severe COVID-19. For the Pfizer vaccine, they observed 1 case of severe COVID-19 in the 21,669 vaccinated individuals versus 9 severe cases in the 21,686 individuals in the placebo group, corresponding to a 89% efficacy in preventing severe COVID-19 (albeit, it's hard to estimate this number with such low counts).

For the Oxford vaccine, they observed no hospitalizations or severe COVID-19 cases in the 12,021 vaccinated individuals versus 5 hospitalizations and 1 severe COVID-19 cases in the 11,724 individuals in the placebo group.

I don't want to take it even if it came out. Staying healthy is our top priority and trying not to be reckless.