How Probable is the Most Probable Distribution in Statistical Mechanics?

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In statistical mechanics, the most probable distribution does not exclude the existence of less probable distributions, but it is derived from the laws of physics. The probability of a distribution is proportional to the number of ways it can be realized, and for large ensembles, the most probable distribution overwhelmingly dominates. Introductory texts often assert this without thorough justification, typically referencing the binomial distribution. An example using a 3-level system illustrates that as the number of systems increases, the most probable distribution becomes the only significant one. Understanding these concepts is crucial for grasping the foundations of statistical mechanics.
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in stat mechanics we derive most probable distribution .but this does not say any thing about existence of other less probable distributions. is there a way to find out how probable is the most probable
 
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I come to question about these things a lot and I totally agree with what you say and there is a way to find the most propable propability, even though we aren't aware of where stuff is and we don't know their state for sure, we don't know that no matter what they wouldn't (and shouldn't) smash a bunch of laws of physics and the distribution that applies this MIGHT bd the best propability distribution, but for the best not so sure because we cannot know pricesly the state and properly describe the microstates of each little particle (example) this is an artefact of our ignorance !
 
The distribution is derived from the laws of physics. To get a different distribution you need to get a different set of physics laws.
 
Gayle said:
in stat mechanics we derive most probable distribution .but this does not say any thing about existence of other less probable distributions. is there a way to find out how probable is the most probable
It is a probability question. The probability is proportional to number of ways distribution can be realized.
 
Most introductory SM books state without much back-up that the most probable distribution of energy states in a large ensemble of systems is so overwhelmingly the most probable that we can forget about the others. More precisely, they say that for a very large number of systems the logarithm of the number of ways of achieving the most probable distribution is the same as the logarithm of the sum of the numbers of ways of achieving every distribution!

Usually they refer to the binomial distribution for back-up, without properly explaining why the binomial distribution is related to the matter in hand.

I've found the following elementary example useful for clarifying what's going on…

Take an ensemble of N 3-level systems. Let the levels be non-degenerate with energies 0, E, 2E. Let the total ensemble energy be \frac{4}{7}NE. Suppose n1 systems are on the lowest level, n2 systems are on the middle level, n3 systems are on the top level. It's easy to express n1 and n2 in terms of n3 (and the constant, N). So there's only one free variable, n3.
For this simple system it's possible to show by quite elementary means (using Stirling's formula and second order Taylor expansion) that, as N approaches infinity, the most probable distribution is the only one that carries any weight.

There's nothing special about the choice of \frac{4}{7}NE for the total ensemble energy; it just makes the arithmetic slightly neater then many other choices. For example, in the most probable distribution n2 turns out be half n1 and twice n3.
 
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Gayle. It would be nice to know if any of the responses to your question were of any use. If any were impossible to understand, or didn't go far enough towards answering your question, you can ask for clarification.
 
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I am looking at pressure in liquids and I am testing my idea. The vertical tube is 100m, the contraption is filled with water. The vertical tube is very thin(maybe 1mm^2 cross section). The area of the base is ~100m^2. Will he top half be launched in the air if suddenly it cracked?- assuming its light enough. I want to test my idea that if I had a thin long ruber tube that I lifted up, then the pressure at "red lines" will be high and that the $force = pressure * area$ would be massive...
I feel it should be solvable we just need to find a perfect pattern, and there will be a general pattern since the forces acting are based on a single function, so..... you can't actually say it is unsolvable right? Cause imaging 3 bodies actually existed somwhere in this universe then nature isn't gonna wait till we predict it! And yea I have checked in many places that tiny changes cause large changes so it becomes chaos........ but still I just can't accept that it is impossible to solve...

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