Hurricane Lee, Atlantic Ocean, September 2023

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on Hurricane Lee, a powerful storm in the Atlantic Ocean as of September 2023. Participants explore its current status, projected path, and potential impacts, with a focus on forecasting challenges and uncertainties.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Technical explanation, Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that Hurricane Lee has rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph, with potential for further strengthening to 180 mph.
  • Others express uncertainty about the storm's trajectory, questioning where and when it might turn, with suggestions that it could head towards northern Florida or the coast of Georgia.
  • One participant mentions a long-range forecast indicating the storm might remain offshore, influenced by a high-pressure system in the mid-Atlantic and a low-pressure system approaching the east coast.
  • A later update indicates that Hurricane Lee has weakened to a Category 3 storm, with projections suggesting it may turn north by mid-week.
  • Another participant claims that the storm appears to be heading towards Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the storm's future path and intensity, with no consensus on its trajectory or potential impacts.

Contextual Notes

Forecasts are subject to change, and participants highlight the uncertainty surrounding the storm's movement and strength, indicating reliance on evolving meteorological data.

Astronuc
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Hurricane Lee has quickly grown to a Cat 5 hurricane with sustained wind of 165 mph. It may achieve winds of 180 mph.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/weather/hurricane-lee-path-friday-climate/index.html
Hurricane Lee is expected to continue strengthening Friday after quickly morphing into a powerful Category 5 storm that is now packing destructive maximum sustained winds of 165 mph as it spins hundreds of miles east of the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 a.m. ET advisory.

The question remains, will it turn, where, when and by how much?

At the moment, it seems to be headed to northern Florida (Gainesville) or the coast of Georgia (Savannah). It could turn slightly north toward the Carolinas.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml#Lee
 
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One of the admittedly very long range forcasts that I saw has it staying offshore between a high pressure center in the mid atlantic and a low entering the east coast. We'll see if it's forecast to actually do that in the next few days.
 
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