bohm2 said:
This is one problem with Quantum Bayesianism and relates to this thread:
The puzzle is this: if there are only subjective probabilities, if gathering data does not help us track the extent to which circumstances favour some event over another one (this is the denial of objective single case probability), then why does gathering data and updating our subjective probabilities help us do better in coping with the world (if, that is, it does so)?
Just to make sure we arent disagreeing upon words here:
When i say objective, I mean specifically "observer invariant".You can also include here superficially observer dependent observations that happen to be related by a known objective time indepedent transformation, typically a symmetry group.
With subjective i then mean that the observation is fundamentally defined within the contex of a given observer, and there exists no a priori symmetry that magically can "scale" or "transform" our obsevations to an arbitrary observer.
For certain groups, this problem is solved. But you can go figure that there are MANY more ways to scale observers than just by say poincare transformations of special relativity, then the main problem is not just that of curved space time and diffeomorphism but the bigger problem is the mass and internal structure of the observer. Renormalization of observational scale, is sniffing also ontoi this.This is a deep problem and open problem. If you are really consistent about the inferential and subjective view, you see how many open wires there is in current theories. And it all more or less cleantly suggests that a reconstruction of this "meaurement theory".
I remember reading the introduction of Carlo Rovellis LQG book fir the first time, and for quote some time his reasoning was brillaint, but quote soon he made a logical mistake imo, that lost my interest. The mistake was not to insist that the subjective view is somehow fundamental. The mistake was to assume that there exists a well defined ubersymmetry group. I think this is a fallacy, and also is the reason matter is separated from LQG.
bohm2 said:
This is one problem with Quantum Bayesianism and relates to this thread:
The Bayesian may try to avoid this but as Timpson points out, other problems follow:
here is an immediate reply to this, of broadly Darwinian stripe. That is: We just do look at data and we just do update our probabilities in light of it; and it’s just a brute fact that those who do so do better in the world; and those who don’t, don’t. Those poor souls die out. But this move only invites restatement of the challenge: why do those who observe and update do better? To maintain that there is no answer to this question, that it is just a brute fact, is to concede the point. There is an explanatory gap. By contrast, if one maintains that the point of gathering data and updating is to track objective features of the world, to bring one’s judgements about what might be expected to happen into alignment with the extent to which facts actually do favour the outcomes in question, then the gap is closed. We can see in this case how someone who deploys the means will do better in achieving the ends: in coping with the world. This seems strong evidence in favour of some sort of objective view of probabilities and against a purely subjective view, hence against the quantum Bayesian.
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~bras2317/qb_s.pdf
I can close the gap by considering an emergent and evolving objectivity.It is clear what even without an "effective objectivit" we would see just subjective solipsist chaos, ie. completeley unstable and divergent. This is now how the world looks like.
The next step is hard to explain unfortunately as its an open issue, but i willtry to give the concept:
Instead the observer learns about its environment, but the environment is not static, its composed of a sea of fellow observers that are in the same situation. So what happens is that we have a chaotic interacting mess of subjective observers, and their interactions means they are learning about each other. And this alone brings them together and creates stability. Even the very RULES of the interaction game are developed here, so this connects also to one resolution to Smolings Evolution of law. You may think that this is a circular reasoning, that that is kind of right, but the circular process here has a physical meaning - this is just time. Or to not confuse with clocks, let's think of if as cosmological time. I don't expect you all to get the idea from a simple explanation, but i would say that this is very complex and nonlinear indeed and i wish itwas simpler, but consistency ismply has led me to this conclusion.
These ideas of eternal objectively real supersymmetry that will seal together are forces in a timeless structure, are a fallacious way of thinking. This is explain in many ways in smolins and roberto unders various books, like this one.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1107074061/?tag=pfamazon01-20
But as I've read this i do not think smolin has the right final resolution to the metalaw dliemma.
IMHO, this is conceptually quite clear to me and has been for a some years, but what is the hard part is to find the right mathematical formalism that realizes this, in a practical way. But somehow the starting point is a reconstruction of the basics. Due to the computational comlpexity it is also probably impossible to simulate a sea of interacting observers, as it woudl effectively be a sea of interacting "computing devices". If we from such a simulation could see that the emergent interactions rules, match the standard model, SR and GR, that woudl be the goal.
And I kind of see this vision as an extermal version of epistemological solipsism, where objectivity is emergent, rather than timeless and static.So its not that we do not have any effective objectivity at all, its just that its not "an ontological timeless matematical observer independent truth",
Edit: I just see how tricky it is to explain. what i argue for above is that even given the initial solipsist chais, there will be a self organisation due to evolution of observers that persist. And with this we should think of the the prototype observers as the elementary particles. So i envision that 99% of these negotiations took place in the first fractions of the second after big bang. So i am not envisioning this as interacting brains.
/Fredrik