News Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

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The Iraqi government is facing imminent collapse under insurgent pressure, with ISIS reportedly taking control of Mosul. The U.S. has refused military aid to Iraq, primarily to avoid appearing to support Prime Minister al-Maliki, whose Shiite leadership could be seen as backing Iran. Concerns are rising that if insurgents gain control of Baghdad, it could lead to increased conflict with Iran. The Iraqi army, despite being well-trained and outnumbering ISIS, has shown reluctance to engage, leaving military equipment behind in their retreat. The situation is evolving into a civil war, raising fears of broader regional instability and the potential resurgence of terrorism globally.
  • #951
jack476 said:
So what you're saying is, anyone can just go pick up a gun, fly themselves to Syria, and decide that they don't need to obey any sort of chain of command or due process at all?

That mentality is not how you fight terrorists, that's how people become terrorists. It doesn't matter if the vigilantes are right, if everyone decided to take things into their own hands society wouldn't be able to function.

There is no society in IS country. There is just death, destruction and misery.

The West is relying on groups like YPG (and their chain of command!) to do the dirty work on the ground for them. If they are so concerned about these groups' supposed lack of ethics, why don't they send their own terrestrial forces?
jack476 said:
The Amnesty quote is actually from your article.
Yes, it is. I did not suggest that it was not.
jack476 said:
The group itself is being investigated for killing civilians in Syria. He was a member of the group, in Syria, when that happened. Ergo it's not unreasonable to wonder if he may have been involved or, if not, whether he knows anything about the people involved.
I don't think that is what the Dutch justice department is primarily after. In any case, at least part of the investigation is based on the suspicion that Jitse killed IS fighters, see the quote from the article that I gave in post #943
Krylov said:
'Dutch law does not allow citizens to use violence – apart from in extreme circumstances – and certainly not to use deadly force. Killing IS fighters can, therefore, result in a criminal prosecution for murder,’ the prosecution department statement said.
as well as

'Jitse A was picked up in Arnhem and is being investigated for his role in killing Islamic State jihadis while fighting with YPG forces', the public prosecution department said in a statement.
 
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  • #952
Syrians mass on Turkish border as regime advances
http://news.yahoo.com/syria-regime-forces-fresh-gains-south-monitor-103050248.html
Up to 20,000 stranded at Syria border with Turkey: UN
http://news.yahoo.com/20-000-stranded-syria-border-turkey-un-160906682.html

Tens of thousands of civilians have joined an exodus to escape fierce fighting involving government forces who severed the rebels' main supply route into Syria's second city.
Civilians are caught between homicidal Daesh and apparently equally homicidal Syrian government, which has support from Russia.
 
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  • #953
Krylov said:
There is no society in IS country. There is just death, destruction and misery.

Right, and that's exactly the problem. If we stoop to their level and decide that vigilante justice and moral outrage trump due process of the law, then that's where our society is also headed.

It doesn't matter that IS are overwhelmingly in the wrong. If we start to do things their way, then we're going to end up like them.

It's also extremely unethical to be sending civilians who may not have any formal military training and whose preparation no one can be certain of into combat. That could interfere with actual military interventions, or we could just be sending well-meaning civilians to their deaths.

The West is relying on groups like YPG (and their chain of command!) to do the dirty work on the ground for them.

I don't know that throwing more insurgents into the mix is going to be especially helpful. And given that there has been very little attention to groups like YPG recently, I doubt that they're actually doing a whole lot.

If they are so concerned about these groups' supposed lack of ethics, why don't they send their own terrestrial forces?

Are we not? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_Syria
 
  • #954
jack476 said:
Right, and that's exactly the problem. If we stoop to their level and decide that vigilante justice and moral outrage trump due process of the law, then that's where our society is also headed.
There is no law in IS territory, except for the sharia.
jack476 said:
It doesn't matter that IS are overwhelmingly in the wrong. If we start to do things their way, then we're going to end up like them.
I believe there is a big and very essential difference between contributing to halting IS and starting to do things their way.
jack476 said:
It's also extremely unethical to be sending civilians who may not have any formal military training and whose preparation no one can be certain of into combat. That could interfere with actual military interventions, or we could just be sending well-meaning civilians to their deaths.
Jitse Akse is a former Dutch commando, well-trained and with experience that goes back to the Yugoslavian civil war. This is also written in the source article.
jack476 said:
Are we not? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_Syria
As far as I understand, the presence of Western forces is restricted to the airspace, with only a limited number of special forces, "advisors" and intelligence officers on the ground. Most of the actual combat on the ground against IS is done by groups like YPG, among others, often in cooperation with the West.
 
  • #955
Krylov said:
There is no law in IS territory, except for the sharia.

And that's the kind of society you end up with when people start to decide to take the jobs of law enforcement and national security into their own hands.

I believe there is a big and very essential difference between contributing to halting IS and starting to do things their way.

As it stands, what this group has been accused of involvement in is not the sort of thing I would call "contributing". The purpose of this investigation is to clarify whether or not civilians have the right to volunteer to fight for non-government military groups. If they rule in his favor and authorize civilians to join YPG to volunteer to help stabilize Syria (and I'm not necessarily saying that they shouldn't) then no harm done, because that way it's all above-board.

The accusation of involvement with violence against civilians also really should be investigated. Would you prefer that it just go ignored?

Jitse Akse is a former Dutch commando, well-trained and with experience that goes back to the Yugoslavian civil war. This is also written in the source article.

And do you think that's true of the average self-appointed militia fighter? YPG has also been known to recruit children. There's no oversight of their training practices, so we can't know for sure that it's a good idea to be letting them send civilians into combat.

As far as I understand, the presence of Western forces is restricted to the airspace, with only a limited number of special forces, "advisors" and intelligence officers on the ground. Most of the actual combat on the ground against IS is done by groups like YPG, among others, often in cooperation with the West.

In cooperation with, and with the authorization of, those countries.
 
  • #956
Hard to believe no one posted about the "cease fire" "cessation of hostilities":
World powers have agreed to seek a nationwide "cessation of hostilities" in Syria to begin in a week's time, after talks in Munich, Germany.

The halt will not apply to the battle against jihadist groups Islamic State (IS) and al-Nusra Front.

The 17-member International Syria Support Group (ISSG) also agreed to accelerate and expand aid deliveries.

The announcement comes as the Syrian army, backed by Russian air strikes, advances in Aleppo province.

The move threatens to encircle tens of thousands of civilians in rebel-held parts of the major city of Aleppo.

The Syrian government has not yet responded, though a key rebel coalition welcomed the announcement.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35556783
So...near as I can tell, it doesn't involve any of the primary combatants and Russia is accelerating airstrikes since. So.. is this just a deal where everyone agrees to get out of Russia's way while Putin helps Assad defeat the rebels but everyone pretends it is a mutual "cease-fire" so they can quit the fight and save face instead of looking like they are just quitting?

If we never intended to do more than put in a token effort to fight, regardless of if it actually helped or not, just to make it look like we were trying, does it still count as a loss?
 
  • #958
Syrian government and "main opposition" agree to the terms of the cessation of hostilities.

ISIS, Al Nusra, and basically any Islamist group who's too close to Al Nusra are not included.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35639970

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35643151

The Syrian government and the main opposition umbrella group say they accept the terms of a deal to cease hostilities from Saturday.

The government said it would halt "combat operations" in line with the plan announced by the US and Russia.

But the opposition said its acceptance depended on government forces ending sieges and air strikes of civilians.

The deal will not apply to the two main jihadist groups in Syria, Islamic State (IS) and the rival al-Nusra Front.

Do all parties agree with the exclusion list?

No. Russia, Iran and the Syrian government regard Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam as terrorist groups.

Ahrar al-Sham is likely to be excluded from the ceasefire, given its alliance with al-Nusra in Aleppo and Idlib.

But Jaish al-Islam, which controls large areas of the Damascus countryside, has closer ties to the broader Syrian opposition, and any attack on its positions might therefore endanger the ceasefire.
Things seem too fragile for anyone to be optimistic.
 
  • #959
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  • #960
  • #961
  • #962
Istanbul bomber identified as militant with Daesh links
http://news.yahoo.com/israel-confirms-third-citizen-killed-istanbul-attack-100334468.html
ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkey's interior minister on Sunday identified the suicide bomber who killed four foreign tourists in Istanbul as a militant with links to the Islamic State group.

Minister Efkan Ala said the bomber was Turkish citizen Mehmet Ozturk, who was born in 1992 in Gaziantep province, which borders Syria. He said Ozturk wasn't on any list of wanted suspects and five other people were detained as part of the investigation.
Apparently not Kurdish.
 
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  • #965
you got the power when you can decide and ignore the citizens. In France our president was elected after he promised to apply several things. He decided after to apply the opposite. He only said I am elected four 5 years and i will go on. Only 15% would vote for him now. The problem in our democracies is that the candidates are allowed to lie before. I am not sure to vote anymore.
 
  • #966
naima said:
The problem in our democracies is that the candidates are allowed to lie before. I am not sure to vote anymore.

Without a democracy, you would be even less able to effect any change. Kings did not need to care what people want.

BTW, voting is the least effective of the methods available in democracy to effect some changes (one vote is not really important). People who really want something to change start publishing articles about politics, organize demonstrations, join a party, or create a new one.
 
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  • #967
But in the reality those who will decide for you will always belong to the same priviligied clan.
 
  • #968
naima said:
But in the reality those who will decide for you will always belong to the same priviligied clan.

Obama is a counterexample.
I think you are just looking for a way to justify your "I'm unhappy about current situation but won't actually do anything to change it" attitude.
 
  • #969
nikkkom said:
Obama is a counterexample...
No family in politics, but many US Presidents meet that standard, including all three GOP candidates. Otherwise, Obama's background includes elite private prep school, Ivy League college and law school, Chicago machine politician and organizer.
 
  • #970
French journalist infiltrates jihadist cell for six months
https://www.yahoo.com/news/french-journalist-infiltrates-jihadist-cell-six-months-031631439.html
"One of the main lessons was that I never saw any Islam in this affair. No will to improve the world. Only lost, frustrated, suicidal, easily manipulated youths.

"They had the misfortune of being born in the era that the Islamic State exists. It is very sad. They are youngsters who are looking for something and that is what they found."
Interesting how the recruiters who encourage suicide bombing don't practice what they preach.
 
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  • #971
Astronuc said:
Interesting how the recruiters who encourage suicide bombing don't practice what they preach.

There probably aren't any religious elements around because most of them are too functionally illiterate and can't understand their book enough to even preach, even if they wanted to do so. The leaders seem to be educated though and probably count on those young men having low intelligence and little confidence about themselves to begin with.
 
  • #972
Astronuc said:
...

Interesting how the recruiters who encourage suicide bombing don't practice what they preach.
Like the leadership of many cults.
 
  • #973
The war against the Islamic State hits hurdles just as the U.S. military gears up
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...3897f8-10ac-11e6-a9b5-bf703a5a7191_story.html
Muslim leaders deny ISIS’ religious claims, stoking group’s anger
http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...y-isis-religious-claims-stoking-groups-anger/

Death threats are a sign that Muslim religious leaders have antagonized the Islamic State, and their growing influence also contradicts those who claim that Muslim leaders have been silent in the fight against violent extremism.
 
  • #976
Why ISIS Sees an Elderly Priest as a Threat to the Caliphate
http://observer.com/2016/07/why-isis-sees-an-elderly-priest-as-a-threat-to-the-caliphate/
Their targeting of Jews is as clear as it is for any other terror group from Hamas to al-Qaeda to the mullahs in Tehran: they want to wipe Israel off the map and seize Al-Aqsa for Muslims. ISIS’ war in the Sinai, infiltration in Gaza and its goal of carving “pathways” through Jordan and Lebanon are critical cogs in their strategy to be the ones to “liberate” Jerusalem. According to an ISIS e-book, “Black Flags from Palestine,” they think the final confrontation with the antichrist will be at Ben Gurion International Airport.

When noting ISIS’ broader attacks against Christians, recent events have grimly underscored the group’s special targeting of Catholics.

The sacking of Rome and the Holy See, after all, is essential to their apocalyptic game plan.
Daesh and their affiliates achieve new lows in depravity.
 
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  • #977
Reading through old posts in thread ...
TheAustrian said:
Maybe the best solution would be to split Iraq in three. One piece for Kurds, one piece for Sunnis, and one piece for the Shi'ite people. Of course I think it should happen at an international negotiation table with the involvement of: Kurds, Sunni Iraqis, Shi'ite Iraqis, Iran, Syria, USA, Russia and China.
klimatos said:
It worked in India, but it was very, very bloody...
Yes, bloody. One could just as well say the partition of India "is", but that it did not "work".

Estimates of the dead vary from 200,000 (the contemporary British figure) to two million (a later Indian estimate) but that somewhere around a million people died is now widely accepted.

https://www.nytimes.com/books/first/b/butalia-silence.html
 
  • #978
 
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  • #979
What Life is Like for the Children of War-Torn Aleppo
https://www.yahoo.com/news/life-children-war-torn-aleppo-113321765.html
The bloodied, dust-covered face of Omran Daqneesh, the five-year-old Syrian boy recovered from the rubble left by an airstrike this week, has shocked the world.

Omran has become a symbol of the ongoing civil war in Syria, but he is just one of an estimated 75,000 children fighting to survive in eastern Aleppo, the divided and once-great city at the heart of the struggle between the regime of Bashar Assad and the rebels attempting to oust him.
Pro-government forces aided by Russian air support, make life even more difficult for the 300,000 Syrians still living there.

http://time.com/4457417/aleppo-boy-ambulance-omran-syria/
 
  • #980
http://www.wral.com/us-says-it-may-have-struck-syrian-troops-while-targeting-is/16022599/ " ... unintentionally ... ?"
 
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  • #981
The 'ceasefire' is over.

Syrian and Russian warplanes have reportedly mounted the heaviest air strikes in months against rebel-held districts of the city of Aleppo overnight, defying U.S. calls for a halt to flights in order to salvage an all but buried ceasefire. Mana Rabiee reports.
 
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  • #983
nsaspook said:
The 'ceasefire' is over.
A ceasefire that never was. 'Cease fire' means ceasing fire, not a reduction in rate of firing.

A now the Russians (and perhaps Assad's pilots) are apparently using 'bunker busters' or more deeply penetrating bombs to go after residents sheltering in basements. The Syrian regime (and possibly Russian aircraft) have targeted hospitals and ambulances.
 
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  • #984
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/01/politics/kerry-audio-recording-syria/index.html
He later added, "A lot of Americans don't believe that we should be fighting and sending young Americans over to die in another country."

If the reason is to replace Assad with another despot then I totally agree.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37507207
But Russia's military role ensured that the Assad leadership was not going to be removed from the chessboard.

This made Washington revise its own approach and pursue what has largely proved an illusory effort, to develop some kind of partnership with Russia.

The United States was compelled not just to deal with Russia as a diplomatic equal but also to shift its own stance towards the Assad government to one - that for all the obfuscation - falls well short of its long-time insistence that President Assad had to go, as the essential pre-condition for any negotiated settlement.

The indiscriminate nature of the Russian and Syrian air campaigns - exemplified by the current struggle over Aleppo - has certainly not won Russia many friends in the West.

Russia has been accused by several governments of barbarity and potentially committing war crimes.

According to the UK-based monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, almost 4,000 civilians have been killed in one year of Russian strikes.

But Western public opinion seems largely unmoved by the struggle; perhaps to an extent a reflection of war weariness in the wake of the campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq.
 
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  • #986
Some media outlets have been recently noting a history written by former Kennedy School professor Samantha Power. Power won recognition with her 2001 article, Bystanders to Genocide, published in the Atlantic regarding the 1994 genocide in Rwanda which killed an estimated 800,000 people in three months. Power's article cites the relevant history of the Clinton administration and Kofi Annan's UN at the time, and describes a damning story of willful avoidance in the US diplomatic community, the US military, and the White House. Power developed the history into a book which won the Pulitzer prize. The recognition won Power a position in the 2008 Obama campaign.

Power resigned from the Obama campaign after calling the then Senator Clinton a "monster". Now of course Power is United States Ambassador to the United Nations, and there is another mass slaughter underway. The UN as of Feb 2016 estimated 470,000 dead in Syria from the war there, and since then has stopped providing public estimates.
 
  • #987
Russia has clearly committed to Assad. Exactly what end games are we looking at? Either we go to war against Russia or we abandon Syria. It's fairly clear we will abandon Syria because it's less risky than engaging Russia. The strategy of proxy war is lost unless the rebels suddenly get anti air units. Is there another way?
 
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  • #988
Greg Bernhardt said:
abandon Syria
abandon ?
upload_2016-10-3_16-19-3.png
 
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  • #989
jim hardy said:
abandon ?
Still not sure what your question is. Nothing seems to work as long as Russia is actively supporting Assad.
 
  • #990
Greg Bernhardt said:
... It's fairly clear we will abandon Syria because it's less risky than engaging Russia. ...
Plenty of other ways to apply pressure on Russia. But why single out Syria to be abandoned? A real line as to where Russia can't go should be established. Does this apply to Ukraine, eastern Europe? Russia goes into Iraq, or proxies into Israel? Russia attacks a US Navy vessel in the Black Sea?

It's also important to think back about what early intervention could have done in Syria. The US/NATO could have destroyed all of Assad's air power at the beginning of the civil war, air power with which he bombed civilians, well before the Russians were involved. Maintaining a US force in neighboring IRAQ with air assets would have helped. The excuse of no Status of Forces Agreement is now clearly seen as nonsense with 5K troops back in Iraq.
 
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  • #991
mheslep said:
Plenty of other ways to apply pressure on Russia. But why single out Syria to be abandoned? A real line as to where Russia can't go should be established.
Because this thread is about Syria :) Russia won't leave Syria. Assad is unlikely to lose as long as Russia is there.
 
  • #992
Greg Bernhardt said:
Still not sure what your question is.
Based on what I implied in my first Syria threads 3 and 5 years ago, I'm going to guess he means that in order to abandon someone you first have to have some sort of control or influence that you can then give up.

I'm not sure the characterization is completely accurate, since we of course did assert some level of influence...we just knew for years that it was only enough to prolong the war, not to help get the outcome we were looking for.
 
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  • #993
Greg Bernhardt said:
Because this thread is about Syria :) Russia won't leave Syria. Assad is unlikely to lose as long as Russia is there.
Yes. I was addressing the open ended part your comment that engagement of Russia is too risky for the US. Surely this assertion is not meant to be universal and has limits, somewhere before the Russia flag is flown over the US Capital due to risk avoidance.

If there are to be declarations about what is too risky for the US abroad, I think it's also a good idea to declare what the US will defend despite risk, else others will endeavor to make the decision for us.
 
  • #994
Greg Bernhardt said:
Still not sure what your question is. Nothing seems to work as long as Russia is actively supporting Assad.
Abandon i first took as negative, throw them to the sharks.
Then it dawned on me there's more than one sense to the verb and i wasn't sure what was your intended meaning . So i looked it up and that's Webster's #3
Having watched Assad interviewed twice on TV I'm of the opinion 1a is a healthy choice. "Arming moderate rebels" was throwing Syria to the sharks.

I've said it before , we should be helping Putin help Assad kick Isis's butt out of his country.
 
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  • #995
jim hardy said:
1a is a healthyworkable? choice.
jim hardy said:
I've said it before , we should be helping Putin help Assad kick Isis's butt out of his country.
... , or, having "abandoned" all interests in Syria as of 2010, at the least, stop the "show" of PC interference.
 
  • #996
Bystander said:
at the least, stop the "show" of PC interference.
The righteous indignation over hacked emails while we overthrow governments all over mideast seems to me incongruous..
 
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  • #997
jim hardy said:
while we overthrow governments all over mideast

Examples please? You have the 2003 Iraq war, thirteen years ago. Anything else?
 
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  • #998
Vanadium 50 said:
Anything else?
Egypt? Libya? (that's stretching the geographic definition, yes ... but, the spirit of "the Arab spring" is maintained)
 
  • #999
The question was about who or what "overthrow" governments "all over" the ME.. How many US divisions invaded Egypt and Libya?

There are now half a million dead in the Syrian civil war. Can the hand waiving nonsense proceed to the sidelines?
 
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  • #1,000
Vanadium 50 said:
Examples please? You have the 2003 Iraq war, thirteen years ago. Anything else?
Egypt, Libyia, Ukraine, attempts in Syria and Turkey just since i recently started paying attention .
 
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