Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[Czcibor]

Al Qaeda Leader Al-Zawahiri Declares War on Daesh 'Caliph' Al-Baghdadi
http://news.yahoo.com/al-qaeda-leader-al-zawahiri-declares-war-isis-151231254--abc-news-topstories.html

I've read a similar story from Libya... and a local person happy that his town was liberated (?) from ISIS by... more moderate Al-quaeda offshoot.
http://www.spiegel.de/international...al-of-life-in-libyan-purgatory-a-1051422.html

 

[Czcibor]

Russia intensified its humanitarian aid for Syria. So far there arrived half dozen of Russian tanks, except from already 200 soldiers to protect Lakatia airport. According to rumours there is more battle ready humanitarian aid to be transported by sea.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/14/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKCN0RE1LH20150914

 

[mheslep]

I'm curious what facts about the Russian arms delivery justify the label "humanitarian" as opposed to, say, "support for Assad"

 

[Czcibor]

I'm curious what facts about the Russian arms delivery justify the label "humanitarian" as opposed to, say, "support for Assad"

I'm kidding a bit because Russians were saying recently somewhat about delivering humanitarian aid to Syria, while now Americans mentioned spotting there Russian forces. The existence of military units is officially denied by Russia.

 

[Astronuc]

Putin's actions certainly add a new dimension to the problem that is Syria.
http://news.yahoo.com/putin-pledges-keep-military-support-syrias-assad-103001576.html

Dushanbe (Tajikistan) (AFP) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday pledged to continue military support for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad after Washington sounded the alarm over an alleged military build-up by Moscow in the war-torn country.

"We support the government of Syria in its fight against terrorist aggression, we provide and will go on providing it with all necessary military assistance," Putin said at a regional security conference in ex-Soviet Tajikistan.
. . .
Putin said that Assad was willing to work with Syria's "healthy" opposition to find a political solution to the four-and-a-half year civil war but insisted that tackling IS was the priority.

 

[Dotini]

Some major developments going on in Syria.

According to Michael R Gordon writing in the NY Times, the US has begun mil-to-mil talks in coordination with Russia's sudden build-up in the Latakia district, a pivot for the administration. The new Russian base is deploying advanced fighters, troop-transport helicopters, helicopter gunships and tanks.

 

[mheslep]

Some major developments going on in Syria.

According to Michael R Gordon writing in the NY Times, the US has begun mil-to-mil talks in coordination with Russia's sudden build-up in the Latakia district, a pivot for the administration.

This coordination must be how Obama interprets the imposition of "greater political and economic isolation" on Putin for invading Ukraine, as Obama put it in the phone call last year. Another U.S. warning against hostile action turned into so much noise.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pres...eadout-president-obama-s-call-president-putin

 

[nsaspook]

Some major developments going on in Syria.

According to Michael R Gordon writing in the NY Times, the US has begun mil-to-mil talks in coordination with Russia's sudden build-up in the Latakia district, a pivot for the administration. The new Russian base is deploying advanced fighters, troop-transport helicopters, helicopter gunships and tanks.

That's understandable when forces are in the field. You need to exchange common IFF and ID codes for tracking systems so 'friendly fire' incidents are reduced. They are there whither we like it or not so you need to make it work at the field operational level even if the political sides are at odds with each other. Same thing happened in the Cold War so I wouldn't read much into it as a change in our policy with Syria.

 

[mheslep]

Russian's armed entry into Syria makes it the regional arbiter. So there's that as a change.

 

[nsaspook]

Russian's armed entry into Syria makes it the regional arbiter. So there's that as a change.

Yes, the change is the Russian military openly using regular forces in Syria. They never left unofficially, used their power in the region to broker a deal on the Chemical weapons mess (actually forced a deal on the US ) since the start of the Syria Civil War. Their policy has changed , not OUR policy IRT Assad and his alliance with Russia to keep him in power. My personal belief is that Assad is better than the alternatives to him as he is beholden to Russia and they are marginally on our side in the fight with IS.

 

[mheslep]

Of course US policy has changed with regard to Russia and its activities in Syria, as the references above indicate. For sometime the Obama administration's policy has been to get rid of Assad. For sometime US policy has been to enforce "greater political and economic isolation" on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, to include sanctions. Now US policy is to allow a major power, Russia, to support Assad with heavy weapons and troops.

 

[Czcibor]

Of course US policy has changed with regard to Russia and its activities in Syria, as the references above indicate. For sometime the Obama administration's policy has been to get rid of Assad. For sometime US policy has been to enforce "greater political and economic isolation" on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, to include sanctions. Now US policy is to allow a major power, Russia, to support Assad with heavy weapons and troops.

I wonder whether it is indeed a policy or just an acceptance of lack of power to force Russians otherwise. Bulgaria just blocked Russian air transport there, it happened on US request. Russians avoided the whole problem through Iran.

Anyway - leading to situation of Russians vs. ISIS, is it really so bad result?

 

[HossamCFD]

Anyway - leading to situation of Russians vs. ISIS, is it really so bad result?

There's a difference between Russians vs ISIS, and Russians putting their weapons at Assad's disposal, who is then free to use them against all his enemies.

 

[nsaspook]

I wonder whether it is indeed a policy or just an acceptance of lack of power to force Russians otherwise. Bulgaria just blocked Russian air transport there, it happened on US request. Russians avoided the whole problem through Iran.

Anyway - leading to situation of Russians vs. ISIS, is it really so bad result?

It's bad for the enemies of Assad. For Russia the importance of keeping him is power overrides US concerns and Russia seems not to care much about the plight of the Syria people at large. Our acceptance of the situation is completely logical given our lack of influence in the region and dealing with the Russian military on ground rules is the smart thing to do.

 

[Czcibor]

There's a difference between Russians vs ISIS, and Russians putting their weapons at Assad's disposal, who is then free to use them against all his enemies.

The problem is that Assad was bright enough to concentrate on eliminating moderate opposition, thus there is not much left out of FSA. It leaves him (and his Russian patrons) on fighting in long run with ISIS.

EDIT: If such plan works out, Obama, to his own surprise, would be remembered as Machiavellian mastermind.

 

[HossamCFD]

If such plan works out, Obama, to his own surprise, would be remembered as Machiavellian mastermind.

I mean even if such plan works out what will it solve? ISIS is defeated (assuming someone will take care of ISIS in Iraq) but Assad is ever more powerful because of the Russian support. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians will still die and millions will still flee.

 

[Czcibor]

I mean even if such plan works out what will it solve? ISIS is defeated (assuming someone will take care of ISIS in Iraq) but Assad is ever more powerful because of the Russian support. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians will still die and millions will still flee.

I do not see in Syria in foreseeable future real chance for any sane and moderate gov. Thus end of civil war and thuggish peace under Assad seem as not too bad result for local population in comparison to other probable scenarios. (I know, a while ago looked as if Iranians toyed with idea to to sacrifice Assad to build wider coalition, but nothing crystallize out of it)

Reminder - I'm Polish, so I consider Gruz 200 (Soviet Union military code name for dead bodies) returning to Moscow as good result on its own. Plus I consider a serious overextension of their power as a situation that can cause a very desirable result already in medium run.

 

[HossamCFD]

Thus end of civil war and thuggish peace under Assad

That's exactly the point I'm contesting. I don't think that even the hypothetical complete defeat of ISIS will bring an end to the civil war. The civil war certainly didn't start with ISIS. They rose to the scene about a year into the civil war. I might be mistaken though.

 

[Czcibor]

That's exactly the point I'm contesting. I don't think that even the hypothetical complete defeat of ISIS will bring an end to the civil war. The civil war certainly didn't start with ISIS. They rose to the scene about a year into the civil war. I might be mistaken though.

I think that you're correct, in the same way as the French Revolution started with quite moderate demands, and genocidal fraction and leaders appeared later, when setbacks let everything radicalise. Same here.

But this part "how it started" is not crucial now, but "who is left standing". When there is not much left of moderate. I know that such clamp down, as in case of Hama massacre of 1982 would leave fully justified level of hate, then would explode sooner or later. But there is no stable solution left.

 

[HossamCFD]

But this part "how it started" is not crucial now, but "who is left standing". When there is not much left of moderate. I know that such clamp down, as in case of Hama massacre of 1982 would leave fully justified level of hate, then would explode sooner or later. But there is no stable solution left.

Yes you're probably right. With ISIS out of the question and the moderates pretty much out of the game at this point, Assad might be able put an end to the war.

 

[Astronuc]

Iran's president claims his military best defense against IS
http://news.yahoo.com/irans-president-claims-military-best-defense-against-073646722.html

US acts to open dialogue with Iran about Syria, Yemen crises
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-administration-wants-talk-iran-syria-065830538.html#

Russia Expands Military Presence in Syria, Satellite Photos Show
https://news.yahoo.com/video/russia-expands-military-presence-syria-015204335.html

Potential collaboration or conflict.

 

[Astronuc]

In contrast - Iraq's stalemate in Ramadi raises doubts about US strategy
http://news.yahoo.com/iraqs-stalemate-ramadi-raises-doubts-us-strategy-122129040.html

 

[mheslep]

What's to doubt? The strategy has been to do nothing of significance in northern Iraq and thus run out the clock on the Obama administration. So far so good.

 

[Astronuc]

After ruinous war, Syria regions may go separate ways
http://news.yahoo.com/ruinous-war-syria-regions-may-separate-ways-061616639.html

In contrast - Syria state media praise Putin's UN speech
http://news.yahoo.com/syria-state-media-praise-putin-speech-un-general-113151540.html

Putin: Russia to help Assad's offensive with airstrikes
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-lawmakers-consider-giving-ok-troops-abroad-073718314.html

The mess just gets messier.

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...of-Russian-troops-in-Syria-approved-live.html

03.30 Russia warned over Syria air strikes, which reportedly target US-backed rebels
Russian air strikes risk driving Syria’s “entire opposition” into the arms of Isil, Britain warned on Wednesday, as President Vladimir Putin's jets bombed targets in three different provinces, report Harriet Alexander in New York and Roland Oliphant in Moscow.

US officials have now said that at least one strike directly targeted rebels that were trained and supported by the US, according to the Wall St Journal.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11903063/Russias-defence-ministry-releases-footage-showing-air-strikes-on-Syria.html. The Russian defence ministry said that 20 sorties were flown against eight targets, described as “military vehicles” along with “arms, ammunition and fuel depots” belonging to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil).

 

[Astronuc]

Messier and messier.
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-lawmakers-consider-giving-ok-troops-abroad-073718314.html

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter also said the Russians appeared to have targeted areas that did not include IS militants and complained Moscow did not use formal channels to give advance notice of its airstrikes to Washington, which is conducting its own airstrikes in Syria against the Islamic State group.
. . . .
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed charges that Russian airstrikes in Syria targeted positions of the Syrian opposition. Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, he said that the Russian Air Forces are cooperating with the Syrian pro-government military to target "exclusively" Islamic State targets.

Russia says Islamic State group not the only target in Syria
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-envoy-syria-needs-free-elections-defeat-073401974.html

 

[Bystander]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/rebel-commander-weighs-in-on-why-u-s-training-program-failed/

 

[Borg]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...of-Russian-troops-in-Syria-approved-live.html

Messier and messier.
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-lawmakers-consider-giving-ok-troops-abroad-073718314.html

When Russia wanted to help protect the rebels in Ukraine from air strikes they supplied them with anti-aircraft weapons. Perhaps Obama should take a page from Putin's playbook. I'm sure that it's not going to happen but, I would love to see the look on Putin's face if it did.

 

[Monsterboy]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/rebel-commander-weighs-in-on-why-u-s-training-program-failed/

As the U.S. has tried to help Syrian rebels, its problem has always been not knowing who to trust. America's $500 million program to train and equip carefully vetted Syrian fighters was supposed to solve that problem. Instead, some of the fighters and their weapons have ended up in the hands of terrorists.

If i recall correctly a similar thing happened in Afghanistan , afghan soldiers trained by the US went and joined the Taliban because they offered better pay! looks like the US doesn't know how to recruit the right fighters , that's why so few of them are trained, I don't think there is any way to know for certain whether the rebel fighters you are training are going to stick to your side ,especially if they get pissed off as explained in the article. A little over a hundred against over 35000 IS fighters? Where is this going ?

 

[nsaspook]

If i recall correctly a similar thing happened in Afghanistan , afghan soldiers trained by the US went and joined the Taliban because they offered better pay! looks like the US doesn't know how to recruit the right fighters , that's why so few of them are trained, I don't think there is any way to know for certain whether the rebel fighters you are training are going to stick to your side ,especially if they get pissed off as explained in the article. A little over a hundred against over 35000 IS fighters? Where is this going ?

We need to improve the recruiting package. 40 acres and a mule sounds pretty good.

 

[mheslep]

If i recall correctly a similar thing happened in Afghanistan , afghan soldiers trained by the US went and joined the Taliban because they offered better pay! looks like the US doesn't know how to recruit the right fighters , ...?

The Afghan army in present form has some 200,000 troops, not a couple hundred.

 

[Monsterboy]

The Afghan army in present form has some 200,000 troops, not a couple hundred.

By the words "looks like the US doesn't know how to recruit the right fighters " I meant in Syria , few years ago I saw an episode of a National Geographic show on TV called "Don't tell my mother" where a french journalist travels to the most dangerous parts of the world to get a first hand experience and tells the producers to not tell his mother that he had been there.When he was in Afghanistan he talked to many soldiers some of whom joined the Taliban a few days later , he also talked to some soldiers who had fought for the Taliban but were on the government's side now ! , they claimed that the Taliban paid them more but they came back because the Taliban were too radical and it scared them.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don't_Tell_My_Mother

 

[mheslep]

The point then is that the US does know how recruit and build a sizable foreign military force, but for some reason the current US leadership has chosen not to do so in the Syrian conflict.

 

[lisab]

The point then is that the US does know how recruit and build a sizable foreign military force, but for some reason the current US leadership has chosen not to do so in the Syrian conflict.

No evidence of that claim here:

https://www.sigar.mil/

 

[mheslep]

I'm missing how SIGAR is relevant to my statement. The Afghan defense force, as created in 2002, has a couple hundred thousand troops (also here). If you mean a lot of money is wasted on missteps, or that creating the force at all may be unwise, or that it may be misused, yes of course, but that's true of any government operation including the operation of the US domestic military.