Is Mount St. Helens Ready to Erupt Again?

[enigma]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6092368/

MOUNT ST. HELENS, Wash. - The flurry of earthquakes at Mount St. Helens intensified further Thursday, and one scientist put the chance of a small eruption happening in the next few days at 70 percent.

Interesting.

 

[Janus]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6092368/



Interesting.

A little more than just "interesting" to those of us who live near the mountain.

 

[Locrian]

I've been hearing this, but the description I heard suggested it wasn't going to be a big, big one.

Has anyone heard any good specifics?

 

[Integral]

A little more than just "interesting" to those of us who live near the mountain.

I hear that the information center, which is 5 mi (~ 8km) from the crater is the busiest that it has been in years.

Hummm... Let me think about this...

She's going to blow! Let's go stand in front of it!

Me, I live a comfortable 200mi away, I think I'll watch it on TV!

Edit:From what I saw last night, the 1000' lava dome in the crater has moved 2" (5cm) in the last day or so, there is a nearly continuous Richter 3 earthquake underway. Yeah, they say it is going to be small... What is small, when it comes to volcanic eruptions?

 

[Chrono]

I've been hearing this, but the description I heard suggested it wasn't going to be a big, big one.

That's what I've heard also. That it won't be near as violent as before.

 

[Integral]

It erupted earlier this morning, a pretty good spew of steam an ash, heading to the south west, perhaps we will get some here.

 

[Kerrie]

Just 55 miles away from the mountain myself and it is a bit exciting, but not devastating like the 1980 eruption.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

She's going to blow! Let's go stand in front of it!

No kidding. And many volcanologists have either been killed or had very close calls. I listened to one guy describe his experience in which about six other scientists died. It was like something out of your worst nightmare.

 

[Chrono]

It erupted earlier this morning, a pretty good spew of steam an ash, heading to the south west, perhaps we will get some here.

Nothing very violent, I'm sure.

 

[Janus]

Just a quick update. The Earthquakes, which had subsided after the burst, picked up again earlier this evening.

 

[Kerrie]

as of saturday p.m.-more earthquakes and evacuations for thousands! amazing...interesting to be a part of this!

 

[Moonbear]

Apparently after the second small eruption today of ash and gasses, the tremors intensified, so they're thinking it's going to be much bigger than just these burps.

Where are the closest homes in relation to the mountain? I would think after the 1980 eruption that people would not want to live quite so close to an active volcano.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Today scientists detected volcanic tremors which indicate the flow of lava underneath the dome. There was a steam release and Hydrogen sulfide gas was detected [by nose]. A level 3 alert was issued - the highest level - which indicates that not only is an eruption is imminent, danger to life and property also exists. When asked how large of an eruption we may see, experts indicated that on a scale of 0-5, with the eruption yesterday being a 0, and the one in 1980 being a 5, we may see a 3; potentially greater. So this is getting quite serious.

 

[Tom McCurdy]

Recent Updates:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=519&ncid=716&e=1&u=/ap/20041003/ap_on_re_us/mount_st__helens

hmm
does anyone know where we can see the first blast on video?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Do you mean from 1980?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Plenty of info available...
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/27/tech/main645674.shtml

 

[Tom McCurdy]

I meant from the recent one but 1980 would be nice also

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It looks like you may have missed my last post. They have a nice page set up for this.

 

[Kerrie]

Today scientists detected volcanic tremors which indicate the flow of lava underneath the dome. There was a steam release and Hydrogen sulfide gas was detected [by nose]. A level 3 alert was issued - the highest level - which indicates that not only is an eruption is imminent, danger to life and property also exists. When asked how large of an eruption we may see, experts indicated that on a scale of 0-5, with the eruption yesterday being a 0, and the one in 1980 being a 5, we may see a 3; potentially greater. So this is getting quite serious.

getting serious yes, and interesting...the closest town to st helens is 30 miles away...the biggest problem i think that is a threat is the ashfall...

 

[Moonbear]

I remember the news footage from 1980, seeing ash covering everything the way snow would. Volcanoes seemed even more exciting when I was a kid than they do now, but then I think everything did...the world seemed so much more dramatic even though it's really the same (or maybe it was the way they showed the news).

 

[Kerrie]

what is interesting is, when the public was evacuated from the observatory just 4 miles away, they acted like they were being inconvieneced because they had to leave (according to the what i saw on the news)...i guess some people have no clue how powerful nature is...

 

[Andre]

http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/ it is. Just about life, the Volcano cam.

 

[Andre]

Looking at the 09.44 picture (20 min later).

http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/

Something seems to be going on over there for sure.

 

[Kerrie]

apparently it is just mostly steam due to the glacier coming in contact with a mass of magma...this isn't the big one yet...

 

[chroot]

I wish I were there. I'd probably be one of the tourists who wouldn't leave voluntarily. Damn my scientific curiosity!

- Warren

 

[Integral]

I wish I were there. I'd probably be one of the tourists who wouldn't leave voluntarily. Damn my scientific curiosity!

- Warren

And I was just going to make a comment about Darwin award candiates!

 

[chroot]

Then let's not mention the thing I did that time with the garden hose... (just kidding)[/size] In all honesty, I would find it difficult to pull myself away, but would probably wet myself and flee once I saw an indication that the situation was more dire than just a USGS warning or a plume of steam.

It's a good thing I'm not a volcanologist...

- Warren

 

[Kerrie]

the lates-st helens is gearing up for a real explosion...all of these puffs of ash and steam are most just cracks in the crater opening up and the glacier inside the crater is coming in contact with the hot inside. it truly is exciting to be witnessing this...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

USGS: We should see magma soon.

 

[Chrono]

I just heard that it was quieting down from my geology professor. Who knows what's going to happen.

 

[matthyaouw]

Last time I checked, I thought it'd gone off & taken out /covered the camera... then i realized it was still dark in the U.S.A.
Man I'm having a stupid day today...

 

[Kerrie]

what i heard today is that the USGS said there is a 50/50 chance now that St Helens could erupt like it did in 80 because it is showing similar "behaviors" now as it did in 1980.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

So is now a good time to mention that something like 100,000 years ago, a volcano located in what's now known as the Blue Mountains in NE Oregon had such an energetic release of material that approximately 2/3 of the state was covered with an estimated 6 foot layer of lava and ash [on the average and I would think from a pyroclastic flow], in two hours! It's hard to even imagine such an event happening today, but I'm sure glad I live way, way south of Portland.

I picked this up in a filler class taken in college - A history of Oregon. We have a very rich geologic history around here. For example, look up the Great Missoula Floods.

http://192.211.16.13/curricular/energies/Aprojfolder/missoula/Five.htm

We have some large stones deposited from these around our place. Apparently we live where a large eddy would form and deposit flood debris.

Not to derail the thread but I find this stuff all very fascinating.

 

[thecolor11]

I'm glad the winds aren't blowing south as well. Sorry for all you suckers in SE Washington and NE Oregon.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Vancouver! Vancouver! This is it!

I just heard the last words transmitted by David Johnston; a geologist who was on the north slope monitoring St. Helens when the 1980 eruption began...spooky...

Also, this is a nice site.
http://www.olywa.net/radu/valerie/StHelens.html?

The largest landslide in recorded history swept down the mountain at speeds of 70 to 150 miles per hour and buried the North Fork of the Toutle River under an average of 150 feet of debris. Some areas are covered by as much as 600 feet. I all, approximately 23 square miles of material was removed from the mountain.

Lateral Blast The lateral blast swept out of the north side of MSH at 300 miles per hour creating a 230 square mile fan shaped area of devastation reaching a distance of 17 miles from the crater. With temperatures as high as 660 degrees F and the power of 24 megatons of thermal energy, it snapped 100 year old trees like toothpicks and stripped them of their bark...

...As the north face of the mountain collapsed, expanding gases and steam from the molten rock hurtled rock and ash out across the land at speeds up to 670 miles per hour uprooting trees as far as 6 miles from the mountain. It was impossible to outrun and the searing heat too intense. Reid Blackburn, a photographer with The Columbian newspaper was one of the first victims of the eruption. Blackburn had tried to take shelter in his car but the lateral blast blew in the windows, letting in the hot, choking ash. He was found in his car 7 miles north of the mountain...

much more plus photos and links

 

[Kerrie]

Yes, the Johnston Observatory now stands where he yelled those famous words...

 

[matthyaouw]

Check the volcano cam- Methinks I see lava...

edit- although it now seems to have solidified. there are two lighter grey patches of rock- one immediately to the left of the smoking vent, and one further left & lower than the first. They were a distinct orange colour when first I spotted them.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

we sure do. Magma has hit the surface.

 

[arildno]

The mountain is grumbling again:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/11/06/mount.saint.helens/index.html

 

[Ivan Seeking]

SAN FRANCISCO -- An unusually smooth and swiftly growing lava dome within the crater of Washington state's Mount St. Helens volcano is an extraordinary and perplexing event with an unknown outcome, geologists said Tuesday. [continued]

http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/041215_msh_update.html

 

[wolram]

If this volcano erupts with any magnitude, how many people
are in the danger area, have evacuation plans been made,
how fast can every one evacuate the area.
How does it effect the day to day lives of people knowing
that one day an eruption from this volcano will happen.

 

[Integral]

Wolram,
The mountain is fairly isolated, the nearest major city, Portland (~600.000 population), is about 80km away. It would take a truly massive explosion to need an evacuation of Portland, though if the winds were right it could get a major coating of ash. The mountain is in the middle of a large wilderness area, it is about 20km to the closest town, and that is very small. I doubt that there are 50,000 living within 50km. Though for most of those towns there is just a single road connecting them to the major freeway. So it is conceivable that some could be isolated for extended periods of time if there is significant flow of material from the mountain.

I grew up in what would have been the shadow of Mt Mazama, 5000 yrs ago this was a 14,000ft peak which was one of the highest in the Cascade Mt Range. But, much like St Helens it blew itself up. What remains is called Crater Lake National Park. The road that leads up to the Park passes through several deep cuts where the banks are volcanic ash 20m to 20m deep. This is as much as 50km from the mountain!

 

[wolram]

Thank you Integral ,
I can see now why people are looking at a future event as a
curiosity rather than panicking.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The first eruption pretty much took care of any immediate concerns.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

On a related note, in all likelihood Mt. Rainier will wipe out Seattle. She has been showing signs of activity for some years now but apparently nothing significant as yet.