Medical Is this the end of flue pandemics?

[wolram]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/09/160930085814.htm

Scientists have designed a new generation of universal flu vaccines to protect against future global pandemics that could kill millions. Researchers researchers have devised two universal vaccines; a USA-specific vaccine with coverage of 95% of known US influenza strains; and a universal vaccine with coverage of 88% of known flu strains globally.Scientists have designed a new generation of universal flu vaccines to protect against future global pandemics that could kill millions. Researchers researchers have devised two universal vaccines; a USA-specific vaccine with coverage of 95% of known US influenza strains; and a universal vaccine with coverage of 88% of known flu strains globally.Scientists have designed a new generation of universal flu vaccines to protect against future global pandemics that could kill millions. Researchers researchers have devised two universal vaccines; a USA-specific vaccine with coverage of 95% of known US influenza strains; and a universal vaccine with coverage of 88% of known flu strains globally.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Here's the citation for the paper being discussed:
Sheikh et al. 2016. Towards the knowledge-based design of universal influenza epitope ensemble vaccines. Bioinformatics. First published online: July 10, 2016 DOI: 10.1093/bioinformatics/btw399

Abstract:

Motivation: Influenza A viral heterogeneity remains a significant threat due to unpredictable antigenic drift in seasonal influenza and antigenic shifts caused by the emergence of novel subtypes. Annual review of multivalent influenza vaccines targets strains of influenza A and B likely to be predominant in future influenza seasons. This does not induce broad, cross protective immunity against emergent subtypes. Better strategies are needed to prevent future pandemics. Cross-protection can be achieved by activating CD8+ and CD4+ T cells against highly conserved regions of the influenza genome. We combine available experimental data with informatics-based immunological predictions to help design vaccines potentially able to induce cross-protective T-cells against multiple influenza subtypes.

Results: To exemplify our approach we designed two epitope ensemble vaccines comprising highly conserved and experimentally verified immunogenic influenza A epitopes as putative non-seasonal influenza vaccines; one specifically targets the US population and the other is a universal vaccine. The USA-specific vaccine comprised 6 CD8+ T cell epitopes (GILGFVFTL, FMYSDFHFI, GMDPRMCSL, SVKEKDMTK, FYIQMCTEL, DTVNRTHQY) and 3 CD4+ epitopes (KGILGFVFTLTVPSE, EYIMKGVYINTALLN, ILGFVFTLTVPSERG). The universal vaccine comprised 8 CD8+ epitopes: (FMYSDFHFI, GILGFVFTL, ILRGSVAHK, FYIQMCTEL, ILKGKFQTA, YYLEKANKI, VSDGGPNLY, YSHGTGTGY) and the same 3 CD4+ epitopes. Our USA-specific vaccine has a population protection coverage (portion of the population potentially responsive to one or more component epitopes of the vaccine, PPC) of over 96 and 95% coverage of observed influenza subtypes. The universal vaccine has a PPC value of over 97 and 88% coverage of observed subtypes.

A few points:
1) The study does not actually make a real vaccine. It is a computational study about how one might design such a vaccine. There is no evidence such a vaccine would actually work.

2) Vaccines are effective only if people use them. When two of the four major US presidential candidates (Trump & Stein) echo debunked claims that vaccines cause autism, even if such a vaccine existed, it seems unlikely we'd reach the vaccination rates necessary to eradicate the disease.

3) Influenza has natural, non-human reservoirs in birds and other animals. Even if we eradicate all strains circulating in humans, there will be new strains that cross the species barrier that may not be covered by the vaccine. In fact, the strains that cause pandemics are usually those that have not been circulating in human populations (so most people won't have pre-existing immunity based on previous infections).

 

[Asteropaeus]

You mean just Trump?

 

[phinds]

You mean just Trump?

I guess he must since that is not Stein's position, despite his apparently thinking that it is.