Japan Earthquake: Nuclear Plants at Fukushima Daiichi

[shogun338]

From TEPCO .

*We found a puddle of water at the main building of the centralized
environmental facility process. We analyzed and detected approximately
1.2 x 101Bq/cm3 of radioactivity in full dose in the Controlled Area and
2.2 x 101Bq/cm3 in full dose in the Non-Controlled Area on March 29.

*A barge of the U.S. Forces with fresh water to be used to cool down
reactors etc. was towed by a ship of Maritime Self-Defense Force and at
3:42 pm on March 31st 2011, came alongside the pier. At 15:38, April 1st,
we started to replenish the fresh water with filtrate tanks.

*At 11:35 am, April 1st, a worker fell into the sea while stepping into
the ship from the pier during the hose laying work of the barge. Other
crew immediately rescued the worker. While no injury or contamination was
confirmed, whole body counter will be implemented to check the
contamination inside the body just in case.

*From 3:00 pm, April 1st, we started spraying inhibitor in order to
prevent diffusion of radioactive materials. This attempt was conducted on
a trial basis at the mountain side area of the common spent fuel pool in
the range of 200m2. The spraying finished at 4:05 pm.

*Monitoring posts (no.1 to no.8) which were installed around the site
boundary have been restored. We will continue monitoring the measured
value and make announcements on those values accordingly.

*We will continuously endeavor to securing safety, and monitoring of the
surrounding environment.

 

[shogun338]

- Presence of 2 TEPCO employees at the site is not confirmed on March
11th.
- On March 24th, it was confirmed that 3 workers from cooperative
companies who were in charge of cable laying work in the 1st floor and
the underground floor of turbine building were exposed to the radiation
dose of more than 170 mSv. 2 of them were confirmed that their skins on
legs were contaminated. After they were decontaminated, since there was
a possibility of beta ray burn injury, they were transferred to
Fukushima Medical University Hospital. The third worker was also
transferred to Fukushima Medical University Hospital on March 25th.
Later, the 3 workers were transferred to National Institute of
Radiological Sciences in Chiba Prefecture. They all left the hospital
on March 28th. Regarding this event, TEPCO has reported to the related
government ministries and agencies on measures to be taken to assure
appropriate radiation dose control and radiation exposure related
operations.
We will inform the related parties of countermeasures and continue to
take all possible measures to future management.

Others
- We measured radioactive materials (iodine etc.) inside of the nuclear
power station area (outdoor) by monitoring car and confirmed that
radioactive materials level is getting higher than ordinary level. As
listed below, we have determined that specific incidents stipulated in
article 15, clause 1 of Act on Special Measures Concerning Nuclear
Emergency Preparedness (Abnormal increase in radiation dose measured
at site boundary) have occurred.
· Determined at 4:17 pm Mar 12th (Around Monitoring Post 4 )
· Determined at 8:56 am Mar 13th (Around Monitoring Post 4 )
· Determined at 2:15 pm Mar 13th (Around Monitoring Post 4 )
· Determined at 3:50 am Mar 14th (Around Monitoring Post 6 )
· Determined at 4:15 am Mar 14th (Around Monitoring Post 2 )
· Determined at 9:27 am Mar 14th (Around Monitoring Post 3 )
· Determined at 9:37 pm Mar 14th (Around main entrance )
· Determined at 6:51 am Mar 15th (Around main entrance )
· Determined at 8:11 am Mar 15th (Around main entrance )
· Determined at 4:17 pm Mar 15th (Around main entrance )
· Determined at 11:05 pm Mar 15th (Around main entrance )
· Determined at 8:58 am Mar 19th (Around MP5)
From now on, if the measured figure fluctuates and goes above and below
500 micro Sv/h, we deem that as the continuous same event and will not
regard that as a new specific incidents stipulated in article 15,
clause 1 of the Act on Special Measures Concerning Nuclear Emergency
Preparedness (Abnormal increase in radiation dose measured at site
boundary) has occurred. In the interim, if we measure a manifestly
abnormal figure and it is evident that the event is not the continuous
same event, we will determine and notify.

- The national government has instructed evacuation for those local
residents within 20km radius of the periphery and evacuation to inside
for those residents from 20km to 30km radius of the periphery, because
it is possible that radioactive materials are discharged.
- At around 10:37 am March 21st, water spraying to common spent fuel pool
and finished at 3:30 pm (conducted by TEPCO).
- At around 3:37 pm, March 24th, electricity supply to common spent fuel
pool has started from external power source. At around 6:05 pm, fuel
pool cooling pump was started to cool the pool.
- We found no signs of abnormal situation for the casks by visual
observation during the patrol activity. A detailed inspection is under
preparation.

 

[ulvy]

Here are some high resolution photos taken from a drone.

http://cryptome.org/eyeball/daiichi-npp/daiichi-photos.htm

and here is a video

 

[|Fred]

Thank you , those HD pics were posted about 20 pages down :)

Here is a photo of the pit allegedly leaking to the sea for Unit 2
I was not able to locate it on the plant.

 

[shogun338]

Thank you , those HD pics were posted about 20 pages down :)

Here is a photo of the pit allegedly leaking to the sea for Unit 2
I was not able to locate it on the plant.

Japan’s nuclear regulator said that workers discovered a crack about eight inches wide in the pit, which lies between the No. 2 Reactor and the sea and holds cables used to power seawater pumps. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/03/world/asia/03japan.html?_r=1&src=twrhp

 

[AtomicWombat]

Thank you , those HD pics were posted about 20 pages down :)

Here is a photo of the pit allegedly leaking to the sea for Unit 2
I was not able to locate it on the plant.

I tried to find it on Google Earth but the resolution is not high enough.

Interestingly Google Earth already has updated its images to post-reactor building 4 explosion.

 

[shogun338]

Tokyo Electric Power is looking to send radiation-hardened robots into the wrecked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, but obstacles literally stand in the way of their use. http://www.pcworld.com/article/223852/debris_prevents_robots_from_entering_stricken_nuclear_plant.html

 

[Borek]

NO AMOUNT OF RADIATION IS SAFE.

How come we are all still alive?

Resistance to some background radiation is built into our biochemistry, we evolved this way as the radiation was always with us. It is dose that makes a poison. I often have a feeling that one of the most important reasons why general public is so afraid of the nuclear energy lies in the fact they were told what you wrote above. Radiation is a not a thing to be treated lightly, but there is no doubt there are levels that are safe. Or at least - their health effect is unmeasurable.

 

[AntonL]

here is a cam picture recorded at 12:00 (japan time) today
[PLAIN]http://pointscope01.jp/data/f1np/f1np1/pic/20110402160059.jpg

 

[clif]

First post, thanks to everyone who has already taught me so much about the tragedy in Japan.

I was not able to locate it on the plant.

As for the location for the pic.

If I am right the place the worker is pointing to is where I located the arrow.

The Tower is the one I circled, and the small Building in the background Behind the railing, is the one I circled.

that is the best location I could come up with.

 

[Borek]

First post, thanks to everyone who has already taught me so much about the tragedy in Japan.

I was not able to locate it on the plant.

As for the location for the pic.

If I am right the place the worker is pointing to is where I located the arrow.

The Tower is the one I circled, and the small Building in the background Behind the railing, is the one I circled.

that is the best location I could come up with.

Clif, you need to be more precise - with almost 2500 posts in the thread we have no idea what you are referring to.

 

[Borek]

There is an are in Africa which has a very unusual distribution of Uranium isotopes, It is deficient in the portion of U235 found in ores in the rest of the world. It has been suggested that at some time in the distant pass the Earth created a natural reactor due to fluctiations in the water table it depleted the U235. The area is several hundred square miles.

I guess you mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklo

 

[clif]

I was referring to the post #2479 about the photo about the water leak.

 

[NUCENG]

How come we are all still alive?

Resistance to some background radiation is built into our biochemistry, we evolved this way as the radiation was always with us. It is dose that makes a poison. I often have a feeling that one of the most important reasons why general public is so afraid of the nuclear energy lies in the fact they were told what you wrote above. Radiation is a not a thing to be treated lightly, but there is no doubt there are levels that are safe. Or at least - their health effect is unmeasurable.

Sorry, I miscommunicated. I was trying to emphasize how much the nuclear power industry tries to minimize any exposure to workers or the public.

Eating fatty foods in excess allegedly causes obesity, heart disease and death. If I eat 10 pounds of chicken fried bacon for every meal, I expect it might cause me a problem. I'm not sure if that damage happens with one pound of chicken fried bacon over a year. But I can be reasonably sure that trying it once won't kill me.

Regulators set limits on radiation exposure based on best understanding of where any changes can be detected. Keeping releases as low as reasobly achievable has resulted in a history of operation that is hard to distinguish from background.

I know we are all focusing on Fukushima. We have seen some injuries. But two people at the site were reportedly washed away during the tsunami and a crane operator was killed. Compare that with possibly 20,000+ dead in Japan from the natural disaster. That is smaller than the death toll on US highways every year. And let,s not even estimate the death toll from malaria and diseases across the world for which cures exist.

 

[geb.es]

There is one thing in the footage of the reactor 3 explosion that I have not seen mentioned. There seems to be a huge recoil component going horizontally northbound. Look at this video, seconds 16 to 30. Apart of the vertical ballistic effect there is a cloud of dust/vapor moving very quickly and very far to the left. By 26'' we cannot even see the leftmost antenna, then the antenna reappears but in the base of it we still see dust moving northbound. Any explanations?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSFQ11_Y2dY

 

[AtomicWombat]

A report using two different risk models to calculate the excess cancers likely in residents within 100km and 100 to 200 km from Fukushima. Both models assume residents not yet evacuated remain where they are for the next year. Many assumptions go into both models (ECRR risk model & the ICRP model) and they produce widely varying results, indicating the science of radiation risk at low-moderate doses is imprecise.

http://www.fairewinds.com/sites/default/files/fukuhealthrept.pdf"

The conclusions are:

"1. The ECRR risk model has been applied to the 3 million people living in the
100km radius of the Fukushima catastrophe. Assuming these people remain
living there for one year the number of excess cancers predicted by the method is
approximately 200,000 in the next 50 years with 100,000 being diagnosed in the
next 10 years. If they are evacuated immediately, the number will fall by a
significant amount. For those 7 million living between 100km and 200km from
the site, the predicted number of cancers is slightly greater with 220,000 extra
cancers in the next 50 years and about 100,000 being expressed in the next ten
years. These predictions are based on the ECRR risk model and also the findings
of cancer risk on Sweden after the Chernobyl accident.

2. The ICRP model predicts 2838 extra cancers in the 100km population. The
eventual yield will therefore be another test of the two risk models.
It is recommended that populations living within the 100km zone to the North
West of the site are immediately evacuated and the zone is made an exclusion
zone.

3. Calculations based on official gamma dose rates published by the Japanese
Ministry MEXT can be used to back calculate surface contamination at the
positions of the measurements using accepted scientific methods. The results
show that the IAEA reports have significantly under reported the contamination
levels.

4. It is recommended that urgent attention is given to making isotope specific
ground contamination measurements.

5. It is recommended that populations living within the 100km zone to the North
West of the site are immediately evacuated and the zone is made an exclusion
zone.

6. The ICRP risk model should be abandoned and all political decisions should
be made on the basis of the recommendations of the European Committee on
Radiation Risk www.euradcom.org This is the conclusion of the eminent
radiation risk experts who signed the 2009 Lesvos Declaration

7. Investigation and legal sanctions should be brought against those who
knowingly held back data from the public

8. Investigation and legal sanctions should be brought against those minimising
the health effects of this event in the media."

The author has a point, but he also has an axe to grind:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Busby"

 

[AtomicWombat]

There is one thing in the footage of the reactor 3 explosion that I have not seen mentioned. There seems to be a huge recoil component going horizontally northbound. Look at this video, seconds 16 to 30. Apart of the vertical ballistic effect there is a cloud of dust/vapor moving very quickly and very far to the left. By 26'' we cannot even see the leftmost antenna, then the antenna reappears but in the base of it we still see dust moving northbound. Any explanations?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSFQ11_Y2dY

The movement of the cloud to the right is almost as far at this time - although the wind is behind it.

The exhaust stack seems to disappear briefly as the shaddow from the large vertical cloud blocks direct sunlight. This is a low contrast video, shot from many km away. Note there is almost no difference in tone between the shaded sides of the builkdings and the background sky.

 

[AtomicWombat]

First post, thanks to everyone who has already taught me so much about the tragedy in Japan.

I was not able to locate it on the plant.

As for the location for the pic.

If I am right the place the worker is pointing to is where I located the arrow.

The Tower is the one I circled, and the small Building in the background Behind the railing, is the one I circled.

that is the best location I could come up with.

Looks about right clif.

 

[Borek]

Many assumptions go into both models (ECRR risk model & the ICRP model) and they produce widely varying results, indicating the science of radiation risk at low-moderate doses is imprecise.

Lies, damned lies and statistics?

 

[geb.es]

The movement of the cloud to the right is almost as far at this time - although the wind is behind it.

The exhaust stack seems to disappear briefly as the shaddow from the large vertical cloud blocks direct sunlight. This is a low contrast video, shot from many km away. Note there is almost no difference in tone between the shaded sides of the builkdings and the background sky.

You are right, that explains the disappearance and reappearance of the stack (what I called the antenna); but what I wanted to draw attention to is the dust cloud moving rapidly northbound, reaching past reactor 1. I would like to see if this fits with TCups "SPF acting as a cannon" hypothesis. Here is a wild guess:

As TCups says, the blast originates in the reactor or at least in the containment vessel. Pressure from it escapes in two opposite directions, to the SF pool(s) and to the utility pool. The SFP acts as a cannon shooting vertically, carrying water, fuel rods, and FHM with it, while the utility pool's north wall collapses and sends a blast horizontally towards the north. This also explains the heavy damage in the small building north of building 3. (Although that damage can also be explained by debris falling there, together with the FHM).

Does that make any sense?

 

[AtomicWombat]

Lies, damned lies and statistics?

Surely too my lives are at stake to take that attitude. This form of modelling is the best means available for estimating radiation risk.

Reading Busby's report, he notes that the ICRP model was developed based on the effects on long-term survivors of Hiroshima and Hagasaki.

"This method cannot apply to internal doses from radioactive substances, called radionuclides, which have been inhaled or ingested in food or water. ... The ICRP method annot either be applied to inhaled or ingested hot particles, which are solid but microscopic and can lodge in tissue delivering high doses to local cells. There is a great deal of evidence that exposure to internal radionuclides is up to 1000 times more harmful than the ICRP model concludes."

"This method [the ECRR model] was applied to the results of the study of Tondel et al 2004 in Sweden who found 11% increase for 100kBqm-2 surface contamination. It almost exactly
predicted what these researchers found. These researchers carried out regressions to correlate cancer increases with area contamination by Cs-137 and other radionuclides from Chernobyl. The error factor relating the ICRP risk model, which employs external radiation, was upwards of 600-fold."

So the ICPR method drastically underestimated cancer rates from Chernobyl because it neglects the effects of inhaled or ingested radionuclides & hot particles.

 

[AntonL]

Lies, damned lies and statistics?

An old saying:
The only statistics you can believe are those you complied yourself

 

[AntonL]

TEPCO published some pics today to celebrate US barge docking with freshwater. It was also reported that one man fell into the water during the docking procedure.
(I now read Japan are asking USA to use this barge to store radioactive water after freshwater has been used)

But look at the last photo - massive ground shifting took place during earthquake - remember this is fill on bedrock.

 

[Borek]

Surely too my lives are at stake to take that attitude. This form of modelling is the best means available for estimating radiation risk.

Agreed, and I am not against trying to model the risk. However, when models give results different by orders of magnitude it is obvious there is something wrong with either one or both approaches. And - as with every loaded subject - experience shows that people involved will do everything to twist the statistics till it becomes damned lies; that's all I was referring to.

Somehow I am reluctant to accept these high numbers. If the effects were really that high they should be easy to see in general demographic statistics (I am thinking about Chernobyl here) - but it seems like they are not higher than the noise. You can't hide additional million deaths, it should be visible in the population growth rate.

 

[AntonL]

The problems Tepco have in moving the basement and trench water are clearly indicated in below slide:

 

[wasteinc]

Borek you are right about how everyone twists everything in order to get his/her point of view. You are also right that that kind of models are at best inaccurate.

but in your second paragraph you don't use what you preach. Demographic statistics in Ukraine are a mess because after 1991, a big chunk of the population left the country. It was estimated that around 1998-2000 nearly 40% of th reproducing capable popolution wasnt living in Ukraine.
Also many of the liquidators came from other parts of USSR that became different states, confusing data even more.
Also the transition from USSR to liberal economies has decreased the life expectancy more than 10 years, in only 10 years. The Chernobyl disaster can mask itself in the economic one.

And to add insult to injury, we have no big epidemiological studies about Chernobyl. It seems that no-one really want to know.

Also the UN report about the chernobyl vastly underestimates everything to a point of becoming upsurd.

and when we are talking about the lives of so many million people the agnostic attitude that most of the industrialized world usually takes is not appropriate.

That also goes to the toxicity of chemical substances, not only radiation exposure. The mantra is that if it is not proven to hurt, it means it can be used. An attitude so much propagated by the tabaco industry.

So the agnostic position "if dose X , is not proven to be hurtful, then we can apply it to everyone reassuring that there is no danger, is quite biased by itself"

sorry if I got carried away, my respects to you and all the other people writing here

 

[NUCENG]

Surely too my lives are at stake to take that attitude. This form of modelling is the best means available for estimating radiation risk.

Reading Busby's report, he notes that the ICRP model was developed based on the effects on long-term survivors of Hiroshima and Hagasaki.

"This method cannot apply to internal doses from radioactive substances, called radionuclides, which have been inhaled or ingested in food or water. ... The ICRP method annot either be applied to inhaled or ingested hot particles, which are solid but microscopic and can lodge in tissue delivering high doses to local cells. There is a great deal of evidence that exposure to internal radionuclides is up to 1000 times more harmful than the ICRP model concludes."

"This method [the ECRR model] was applied to the results of the study of Tondel et al 2004 in Sweden who found 11% increase for 100kBqm-2 surface contamination. It almost exactly
predicted what these researchers found. These researchers carried out regressions to correlate cancer increases with area contamination by Cs-137 and other radionuclides from Chernobyl. The error factor relating the ICRP risk model, which employs external radiation, was upwards of 600-fold."

So the ICPR method drastically underestimated cancer rates from Chernobyl because it neglects the effects of inhaled or ingested radionuclides & hot particles.

Based on a quick read the new method used is taking MEXT measurement data that only goes back to about 10 days after the accident to estimate total effective dose to the population. The readings of contamination may not be adjusted for background radiation. If so the calculated result of a 66% increase in cancer over 50 years would be grossly overstated. Further, if it doesn't account for evacuations that have been performed or may occur within the assumed 1 year exposure period, it would again be overstating the problem.

The latest IAEA updates on Chernobyl that I have read are still unable to demonstrate statistically an increase in latent cancers other than the thyroid cancers and acute dose cases early in the event. If you have later information I'll add it to the list of other new reports I have found while following this thread.

I would characterize this report as a first guesstimate of the worst case. It is the starting point not the final answer.

Please excuse occasional cases of gallows humor. I am pretty sure no one here is making light of the potential consequences of this accident. But it is small compared to the consequences of the earthquake/tsunami.

 

[|Fred]

now back to the pant...
the latest paper 'schematic' from tepco about the trench leak (translated)

ps: http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2011/04/20110402003/20110402003-3.pdf
The temp of the unit 2 pool has been rising all week and now is at 72°.. might become an issue if we can't cool this one or inject water

 

[AntonL]

now back to the pant...
the latest paper 'schematic' from tepco about the trench leak (translated)

The leak must be quiet severe, No sea water analysis available for since 31 March, high levels seemingly are not being published.

550 to 600 m3 or tonnes of water per day are being used "Feed and Bleed" cool the reactors, part of this volume escapes as steam the rest being accumulated in basement, trenches and escaping into the subsoil and sea. This process will continue for weeks and months, it will only stop once secondary cooling can be established and cooling water circulated in a closed system to the reactor.

The pumps to do this circulation all have now been submerged with extreme high radiation water for nearly a week, even if basements are pumped dry it will take time to decontaminate.

Will the solution be in constructing new secondary cooling systems? this will take months.

 

[ZZR Puig]

For those concerned or just curious, it would be worth to have also another perspective about radiation health effects from the hand of one of the best experts in the field, having been chairman of UNSCEAR studying the Chernobyl accident consequences.
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2010/Summer_2010/Observations_Chernobyl.pdf" )

In case you find that paper too long, you may as well get the general idea from a briefer and a somewhat less recent article:
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/chernobyl.html"