Last Year a Snowstorm, This Year a Hurricane? Really?

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The discussion centers on the unusual weather patterns experienced around Halloween, with participants reflecting on last year's October snowstorm and the current threat of Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to transition into a Nor'easter. Concerns about safety and preparedness are prevalent, with individuals sharing personal experiences and advice on how to prepare for severe weather, including stocking up on supplies and securing homes against potential flooding and power outages. The conversation highlights the confusion surrounding the storm's classification as it shifts from a tropical cyclone to a winter storm, referred to as "Frankenstorm." Participants express anxiety about the storm's impact, particularly in urban areas like New York City, and discuss the unpredictability of weather patterns, emphasizing the importance of taking such threats seriously. The discussion also touches on the historical context of late-season hurricanes and the challenges of emergency preparedness in densely populated regions.
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Last year, on the weekend before Halloween, we had about 8 inches of snow. Snow! On Halloween! This year, a hurricane (hurricane??!) is threatening to drive up the coast, hang a left through the barren wasteland and plow through southeastern Pennsylvania.

Last year, I drove through the snowstorm on the way to a friend's wedding in Gettysburg, not taking the snow seriously (how can you take October snow seriously?) and spun my car off the highway. This year, I'm afraid for my life!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812W5_NL+gif/235450W5_NL_sm.gif
 
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Be careful!
 
The apocalypse is nigh!

Last year, I drove through the snowstorm on the way to a friend's wedding in Gettysburg, not taking the snow seriously (how can you take October snow seriously?) and spun my car off the highway. This year, I'm afraid for my life!

you're a good friend.
 
Is it possible to have a hurricane that IS a snowstorm? I would guess yes. Are there any in recorded history?
 
Mentalist said:
The apocalypse is nigh!

How about the earthquake that hit Maine last week? 2012 man...

Ben Niehoff said:
Is it possible to have a hurricane that IS a snowstorm? I would guess yes. Are there any in recorded history?

A Nor'easter is basically that. Wicked bad snow storms that we get to look forward to every year. In fact, winter isn't really winter without one!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nor'easter
 
Ben Niehoff said:
Is it possible to have a hurricane that IS a snowstorm? I would guess yes. Are there any in recorded history?
A nor'easter can have both rain and snow.

The storm russ is referring to is considered a Nor'easter.

Active Weather Threat Halloween Week Nor’easter October 28th – 31st 2012

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf

70MPH winds are common in storms here and no one cares. :(
 
Evo said:
The storm russ is referring to is considered a Nor'easter.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
NHC said:
Hurricane Sandy...
Gale said:
A Nor'easter is basically that [a winter hurricane]. Wicked bad snow storms that we get to look forward to every year. In fact, winter isn't really winter without one!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nor'easter
Gale's Wiki said:
Difference from tropical cyclones
Often, people mistake nor'easters for tropical cyclones and do not differentiate between the two weather systems. Nor'easters differ from tropical cyclones in that nor'easters are cold-core low-pressure systems, meaning that they thrive on cold air. Tropical cyclones are warm-core low-pressure systems, which means they thrive on warm temperatures.
Fed by warm air or cold air?! Oh god, it can't be stopped!
 
Prepare for a long electrical outage, maybe get or arrange to rent a generator (do it now or no amount of money can get you one once the power goes out. If you have a fireplace, stock up on wood and get a few bricks, place a grill over them, even an oven shelf will do and you can cook in the fireplace. Oh, you might have gas, which means it may not even be an issue. Fill you car's gas tank up and make sure you have a car adaptor for your cell phone. Get lots of candles and mirrors. Placing candles on mirrors and in front of them really brightens a room.

Or do what I did during the last blizzard, stay at a hotel.
 
  • #10
Well - I'm on the bad side of that storm. :rolleyes:

Either we'll get a lot of snow followed by rain, or we get a lot of rain. Either way, we get significant flooding.

As long as we have electricity, we'll stay dry. Otherwise, my basement will become an indoor pool.
 
  • #11
Evo said:
Prepare for a long electrical outage, maybe get or arrange to rent a generator (do it now or no amount of money can get you one once the power goes out. If you have a fireplace, stock up on wood and get a few bricks, place a grill over them, even an oven shelf will do and you can cook in the fireplace. Oh, you might have gas, which means it may not even be an issue. Fill you car's gas tank up and make sure you have a car adaptor for your cell phone. Get lots of candles and mirrors. Placing candles on mirrors and in front of them really brightens a room.

Or do what I did during the last blizzard, stay at a hotel.

This will me my first storm in NYC. I'm not really sure how city folk prepare. Does the power ever go out here? I'm more used to the sort of preparations Evo's described. How am I supposed to stay warm without my space heater!?
 
  • #12
Gale said:
This will me my first storm in NYC. I'm not really sure how city folk prepare. Does the power ever go out here? I'm more used to the sort of preparations Evo's described. How am I supposed to stay warm without my space heater!?
Luckily, since it's only October, the weather won't be that cold. You'd be amazed at how much heat candles give off. During one outage in winter, I moved the girls and I into the smallest room, burning every candle I had (dozens), they raised the temp a few degrees, enough to make it comfortable.
 
  • #13
Putting on few extra layers of clothes always works.
 
  • #14
Evo said:
Luckily, since it's only October, the weather won't be that cold. You'd be amazed at how much heat candles give off. During one outage in winter, I moved the girls and I into the smallest room, burning every candle I had (dozens), they raised the temp a few degrees, enough to make it comfortable.

Haha. That actually sounds sort of awesome. But you're right, it shouldn't be too bad right now. I am a little nervous for future storms, I haven't lived in a state that had a winter in years... I'm going to be a miserable kitten.
 
  • #15
Gale said:
This will me my first storm in NYC. I'm not really sure how city folk prepare. Does the power ever go out here? I'm more used to the sort of preparations Evo's described. How am I supposed to stay warm without my space heater!?
The power is usually stable in NYC. I'm in a more rural area, and I've had power go out at home during the winter. The temperature went down to about 35 F in the colder parts of the house.

Others in more rural ares have had power out for days or weeks following severe icestorms - not to mention flooding, which in one case destroyed several hundred homes.

I'd prefer two or three feet of snow (with a slow thaw) as compared to 10 or 12+ inches of rain.
 
  • #16
It appears the pic I linked in the OP is dynamic, updating with the latest projected track every few hours. For reference, all projections are archived here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084338.shtml?gm_track#contents

The track was revised overnight to be slightly south of where it was projected last night, which is good because last night the center was projected to pass slightly north of me.
 
  • #17
russ_watters said:
The track was revised overnight to be slightly south of where it was projected last night, which is good because last night the center was projected to pass slightly north of me.
You might want to revise your "which is good". Passing to the north of you would have put you on the clean side of the hurricane. Now you'll be on the dirty side of the storm.

Good luck, and be safe.
 
  • #18
Evo said:
The storm russ is referring to is considered a Nor'easter.
It's a hurricane right now. It will morph into a hurricane+Nor'easter, the just a Nor'easter.

This has all the makings of a perfect storm: Hurricane, plus Nor'easter, plus a full moon for perfectly bad surge tide, plus perfectly bad steering currents from a Canadian high to the north, plus perfectly bad steering currents from a strong dip in the jet stream in the midwest, plus a track that at least right now takes the storm smack into New York City. That's where the two best hurricane models, the GFS and the UKMET, take the storm as of 6AM Eastern time today.
 
  • #19
Sandy now has a new unofficial name... [eerie music]... Frankenstorm!
 
  • #20
There's one huge difference between the 1991 perfect storm and this Frankenstorm. That difference: The 1991 storm, bad as it was, never made landfall.
 
  • #21
Oi, best of luck with sitting this storm out! I'm so glad that tornados or superstorms are not part of my weather system..
 
  • #23
Russ, are you in danger of flooding? If so, you might want to get a small portable sump pump. I had to get one for my last house because the built in sump could not handle the amount of water the basement would take on. It can be used in any part of the house. They are small, light and easily moved, they just sit on the floor.
 
  • #24
Can't say I have any good advice (that is, I can always play smart aleck and tell you to buy an inflated mattress - it should keep you dry in the night even if the room is flooded), I just hope it won't be as disastrous as it can be. Good luck to you (and all those on the storm path).
 
  • #25
I'm in northern Virginia. I went to the grocery store for a normal stop today and it seemed that everyone was talking about it. However, I've talked to a few people who didn't even know that it was coming. It's predicted to go just north of here but, we're still expecting to get at least 5 inches of rain, 50+ mph winds and gusts in the 70s. Should be an interesting week.
 
  • #26
The models are still all over the map with regard to where this beast will make that sharp left turn to the west, and hence where it will make landfall. Some of the models have it turning post-tropical and turning northeast (the GFS has it doing a loop-de-loop, hitting NYC twice!) to join the cold front, so a true Nor'easter. Others have it making landfall farther south where it will get a nice last minute kick of energy from the Gulf Stream, making it punch through the cold front and turning northeast well inland.Is this the October surprise for this election?
 
  • #27
D H said:
The models are still all over the map with regard to where this beast will make that sharp left turn to the west, and hence where it will make landfall. Some of the models have it turning post-tropical and turning northeast (the GFS has it doing a loop-de-loop, hitting NYC twice!)...

If we get hit twice...

On the bright side, at least school is already talking about cancelling classes.

Ever since moving to New York I've had a mild paranoia that something like "The Day After Tomorrow" was going to happen while I lived here. Big cities are always have really horrible things happen to them in movies... especially New York.
 
  • #28
Gale said:
Ever since moving to New York I've had a mild paranoia that something like "The Day After Tomorrow" was going to happen while I lived here. Big cities are always have really horrible things happen to them in movies... especially New York.
At least you're not in Tokyo, a city well-known to be the most explosive substance on Earth.
 
  • #29
Sandy's landfall is predicted to be somewhere in the People's Democratic Republic of Northern South Jersey on Tuesday around 8 a.m. Irene flooded out our police station and they just got done restoring it.
 
  • #30
Monique said:
Oi, best of luck with sitting this storm out! I'm so glad that tornados or superstorms are not part of my weather system..
It's hard to figure out what might happen. Every summer, now, we get supercells that spawn twisters. The hurricanes are the worst, though. Heavy rains saturate the soil, and the heavy winds topple trees. This time of year is especially bad, since many trees still have most of their leaves.
 
  • #31
Evo said:
Russ, are you in danger of flooding?
I was mostly just being dramatic last night. My house is on the side of a hill, situated in such a way as to have very little risk of flooding. I may have a couple of painful commutes on Monday and Tuesday, but beyond that, not too much to worry about besides power outages...And I have a generator.

My parents' house, on the other hand, will flood (the basement). They have a sump pump and a backup, so they should be set. I'll be over for brunch on Sunday and I'll check it out to make sure it is ready to go.

I do have some great creeks nearby that get pretty exciting when they flood. I may go take some pictures.
 
  • #32
russ_watters said:
My house is on the side of a hill, situated in such a way as to have very little risk of flooding.

Side of a hill can still mean a landslide, especially during heavy rains.

Not that I wish you one, quite the opposite.
 
  • #33
russ_watters said:
Last year, on the weekend before Halloween, we had about 8 inches of snow. Snow! On Halloween! This year, a hurricane (hurricane??!) is threatening to drive up the coast,...

jtbell said:
Sandy now has a new unofficial name... [eerie music]... Frankenstorm!

Hence it sounds like a bit of a suggestion of being unique, a hurricane so late in the season. So I wondered how common late hurricanes are.

So Alice 1954 spawned 30 December. Kate 1932 formed on 30 October and could also be called a Frankenstorm? The oldest mentioning, I found, of an October Hurricane that made landfall was #5 in 1852, followed one year later later by Hurricane #8. There are many more.
 
  • #34
Andre said:
Hence it sounds like a bit of a suggestion of being unique, a hurricane so late in the season. So I wondered how common late hurricanes are.

I thought the "frankenstorm" monicker was in reference to the hurricane merging with a proper winter storm, rather than simply being late in the year.
 
  • #35
Hurkyl said:
I thought the "frankenstorm" monicker was in reference to the hurricane merging with a proper winter storm, rather than simply being late in the year.

Yes, that seems right.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=preepd&version=4&fmt=reg

Sorry for the caps in the quote, but that's the original.

...ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.[sic]
 
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  • #36
Due to the Frankenstorm nature of Sandy, there will be a confusing flow of information as the storm transitions from a tropical storm to a nor'easter:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues advisories, forecasts, and warnings on tropical
cyclones - the generic term for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions. Sometime
prior to making landfall, Hurricane Sandy is expected to lose its characteristics as a tropical
cyclone and take on the structure of a wintertime low-pressure area. Because the National
Hurricane Center only issues advisories on tropical cyclones, there will be changes in the flow of
information coming out of the NWS when this transition occurs...

Because Sandy is expected to make this transition before reaching the coast, the NWS has
been using non-tropical wind watches and warnings, issued by local NWS Weather Forecast
Offices (WFOs), to communicate the wind threat posed by Sandy in the Mid-Atlantic States and
New England. (This is why NHC’s tropical storm warnings extend only into North Carolina.)
The NWS plans to continue using non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local offices in
the Mid-Atlantic States and northward throughout this event. By using non-tropical warnings in
these areas from the start, we avoid or minimize the significant confusion that could occur if the
warning suite changed from tropical to non-tropical in the middle of the event.
When NHC determines that Sandy has become post-tropical, NHC advisory products will cease.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf

They say that by using non-tropical watches and warnings, issued by local offices, they will avoid confusion, but I don't agree. I had already been wondering why the advisories hadn't been extended above North Carolina and the only way to figure out why is by reading this PDF. Worse, if the transition prediction is mis-timed:
In the event Sandy remains a tropical cyclone through landfall, NHC advisories and products
would of course continue. There would be no transition, however, from non-tropical wind
warnings issued by the WFOs back to Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings issued by
NHC, since both sets of warnings describe the same wind hazard.
I'm not clear on what exactly that means, but it implies to me that even if Sandy makes landfall as a tropical storm, the NHC still won't be issuing watches/warnings.

This issue is too bad, IMO, because there is no concise tracking and informational source for just big storms. The NHC is an excellent resource -- I'm not sure what they do in the winter, but perhaps their responsibilities should be extended?
 
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  • #37
russ_watters said:
Due to the Frankenstorm nature of Sandy, there will be a confusing flow of information as the storm transitions from a tropical storm to a nor'easter: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf

This is too bad, IMO, because there is no concise tracking and informational source for just big storms. The NHC is an excellent resource -- I'm not sure what they do in the winter, but perhaps their responsibilities should be extended?
I agree, one of the most devastating floods in the Houston, TX area was caused by a "tropical storm". No one paid much attention to it, heck, not a hurricane. Then people had to be rescued from the second floor windows of their homes by boats, if they were lucky enough to have a second floor.
 
  • #38
yahoo.com said:
"I can be as cynical as anyone," said Christie (NJ Governor Chris Christie), who declared a state of emergency Saturday. "But when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, you're going to wish you weren't as cynical as you otherwise might have been."
I'm not sure what he means, but I have no doubt he means something.
 
  • #39
Take care, Jimmy. You might be in the bullseye.
 
  • #40
turbo said:
Take care, Jimmy. You might be in the bullseye.
I am in the bullseye. I have water, imperishable food, flashlights, batteries, and a radio. My gas tank is full. I can be as safe as anyone, but when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, I'm not going to wish I wasn't as safe as I otherwise might have been.
 
  • #41
Russ and Jimmy are right in the track of the eye, and others are close to it as well. We're further away but on the north - northeast -eastside, so were expecting lots of rain and high wind. We're supposed to prepare for gusts up to 60 mph, or up to 75 mph in higher elevations.

This might be of interest.
http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanebook.pdf
 
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  • #42
Here are some before pictures.
Our police station. It got flooded out by Irene and only just recently opened again. The brown colored buildings on the left of the picture are on the other side of a river that you can't see.
33madrb.jpg


Another view of the police station.
ipmb04.jpg


The river. It overflowed its banks as a result of Irene.
5s9xu.jpg


The pond. During the cold war, it was disguised to look like a parking lot in order to fool the Ruskies. Irene blew our cover and anyone could easily see the true nature of this body of water.
2rzt3js.jpg
 
  • #43
I just got back from the store... ugh it was awful. So packed. Subway closes in a couple hours, then i'll be stuck in my 1bdrm apartment until the storm blows over. I'm not in an area that had to be evacuated, but I can see the Hudson from my window. Hopefully its not really as bad as they're saying though. But hey, at least classes were canceled for tomorrow.
 
  • #44
And now wall street will be closed tomorrow too. Crazy!
 
  • #45
Jimmy Snyder said:
I am in the bullseye. I have water, imperishable food, flashlights, batteries, and a radio. My gas tank is full. I can be as safe as anyone, but when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, I'm not going to wish I wasn't as safe as I otherwise might have been.

No one is not going to wish they weren't as unsafe as they might not have been.
 
  • #46
Hmm. My mom was really freaking about this, but she always freaks out about weather. was planning on staying at her beach house, which is about four blocks from the beach. Maybe I should just go back to my apartment, which is further inland?
 
  • #47
Chi Meson said:
No one is not going to wish they weren't as unsafe as they might not have been.

Say what?
 
  • #48
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
 
  • #49
SHISHKABOB said:
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
Try again. That doesn't parse, at least not to me. I can't make heads or tails of what you typed.
 
  • #50
I hope this topic is not too serious to joke about.

The models have converged, all on Jimmy Snyder's locale.Best of luck, Jimmy. Stay safe.
 

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