Optimizing Expected Cost for Traveling to an Appointment

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on optimizing the expected cost of traveling to an appointment based on arrival time. The cost incurred is $3 per minute for early arrivals and $5 per minute for late arrivals, with travel time modeled as a continuous random variable defined by the probability density function (pdf) f(x) = (1/10)e-x/10 for x ≥ 0. To minimize expected costs, participants emphasize the need to formulate a cost function based on departure time and travel duration, rather than solely calculating expected travel time.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of continuous random variables and probability density functions (pdf)
  • Knowledge of expected value calculations in probability theory
  • Familiarity with cost functions and optimization techniques
  • Basic calculus skills for evaluating integrals
NEXT STEPS
  • Formulate a cost function based on departure time and travel duration
  • Learn about expected value calculations for piecewise functions
  • Study optimization techniques for minimizing functions
  • Explore applications of probability density functions in real-world scenarios
USEFUL FOR

Students in statistics, operations research, or anyone involved in optimizing travel plans and appointment scheduling.

twoski
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Homework Statement



Suppose that if you are s minutes early for an appointment, then you incur cost s * $3,
while if you are s minutes late, you incur cost s * $5. Suppose the travel time from your
present location and the location of the appointment is a continuous random variable with
pdf f(x) such that f(x) = (1/10)e-x/10 if x ≥ 0 and f(x) = 0 if x < 0. How many minutes before your appointment should you depart in order to minimize your expected cost?


The Attempt at a Solution



So i want to find E[X] and then the variance i assume...

E[X] = \int_{0}^{∞} x( 1/10e^{-x/10})

But if i evaluate this I'm going to get either 0 or infinity... So should this just be an indefinite integral?
 
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twoski said:

Homework Statement



Suppose that if you are s minutes early for an appointment, then you incur cost s * $3,
while if you are s minutes late, you incur cost s * $5. Suppose the travel time from your
present location and the location of the appointment is a continuous random variable with
pdf f(x) such that f(x) = (1/10)e-x/10 if x ≥ 0 and f(x) = 0 if x < 0. How many minutes before your appointment should you depart in order to minimize your expected cost?

The Attempt at a Solution



So i want to find E[X] and then the variance i assume...

E[X] = \int_{0}^{∞} x( 1/10e^{-x/10})

But if i evaluate this I'm going to get either 0 or infinity... So should this just be an indefinite integral?

Computing EX has nothing to do with the problem. You want to look at expected COST, which will depend on when you leave. Write a formula for the cost function, given that you leave m minutes before your appointment and the trip takes x minutes. Then take the expected value of that cost function.
 
Last edited:

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