Drakkith said:
I'm going to disagree with this and the rest of your post, as I believe this is an open problem in artificial intelligence research and not something that can be confidently said to be possible or not.
If you know of any evidence that any directed efforts are being made to address the specific problem
s I've mentioned, I'd like to hear it. The AGI researchers I've encountered all seem to think that those problems will simply resolve spontaneously as an emergent phenomenon once a machine is equipped with a sufficiently sophisticated automatic learning program. But that sounds like a hand-wave to me.
Mortal incarnate beings possesses innate motivations. Machines don't even know whether they're on or off, much less caring about that state of affairs. There's no evidence that an electric circuit finds being powered up to be a more desirable state than remaining inert. A flatworm exhibits more sensibility than that, despite the fact that it possesses a relatively miniscule amount of complex pattern recognition or memory as compared to AlphaZero.
mfb said:
Assuming growth continues roughly at the same exponential rate supercomputers should get able to mirror all human neurons within the next ~20 years, and vastly exceed the corresponding processing power in 30-40.
That's a faith-based proposition, ultimately.
https://www.cnet.com/news/end-of-moores-law-its-not-just-about-physics/ If you doubt that Moore's Law has adherents who use it as an article of faith, I suggest that you read some of the comments for that article. Fortunately, not every comment writer in the thread is so starry-eyed. As one of them pointed out, there's a Moore's 2nd Law as well: economic constraints eventually begin to come into play
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_second_law
I suspect that an enormous amount of power would also be required in order to keep the super-supercomputers running, once they're built, to say nothing of the challenges of their fabrication. And it should be recognized that there really isn't much further for processing units to shrink; chips built to use 5 nanometer devices- the current state of the art- are awfully small already.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nanometer#cite_note-EndMoores2013-1
mfb said:
We don't know if it is sufficient to look at neurons, but including more cells or more details is just a quantitative problem, not a qualitative one. Scanning a human brain (as one option to get a template) is also a matter of engineering, not a physics problem.
Those are some of the same challenges that I alluded to in my comment. You haven't begun to address them. So you need to realize that your reply is a hand-wave, not an answer.
I guarantee that more will be entailed to model human brains with software than simply "looking at neurons", which are dynamic wetware-based processors, not static hardware like inert VSLIs stamped out in a factory. We don't even have a full grasp of the array of functions for neurotransmitters like serotonin, much less an engineering level of understanding how they're used by our neurons. That current focus of that research isn't in neurology, it's in the pharmaceutical industry, and the results are nowhere near being mapped out comprehensively; they're primarily based on trial and error empiricism, not the certainties of semiconductor doping.
Similarly, I guarantee that there's more involved in "scanning the human brain" to achieve the results required for a computer simulation than what we can achieve with the current state of the art in brain imaging. Compared to the ambitious capabilities required to provide a thorough dynamic mapping of human brain function, we're about one level above using metal detectors on a beach, in terms of imaging sophistication. Although, as I've already noted, I have yet to have any assurance that computer engineering could model the awareness of a living organism as primitive as a flatworm with software, even if a complete outline of its functioning were available.
Hmm, that might make for an interesting challenge- build a robot capable of simulating the functioning of serotonin in flatworms. The everyday routine of flatworms is almost entirely about biosurvival; their neuromuscular activity utilizes serotonin, 5HT, to move toward food or away from noxious substances in their environment. AI researchers should be able to find some useful clues here
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166685107000965 Model that with a software program, and you may begin to gain an appreciation of what's entailed in building a machine that care whether it's on or off.