MHB Probability of winning a point on serve in tennis

AI Thread Summary
The discussion focuses on calculating the probability of winning a point on serve (Pwos) in tennis using specific formulas that incorporate the likelihood of a successful first serve, winning a point after a successful serve, and winning on a second serve. An example calculation is provided, resulting in a Pwos of approximately 0.613 based on given probabilities. Additionally, the conversation touches on how to accurately update Pwos when players have faced each other on the same surface, referencing a method from a book on tennis prediction. There is also a query regarding the proper application of formulas for updating Pwos in the context of Betfair betting. Understanding these calculations is crucial for analyzing player performance in matches.
Hrant
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Hello, my question about calculating the probability in tennis
I know that to calculate Pwos (probability of point won on oun serve ) for each player the following formula is used...

# P(no Fault) -The probability a player's first serve not faulting

# P(win/no Fault) -The probability a player will win the point if the first
service does not fault

# P(win/fault) -The probability a player will win the point on his second
serve

formula...
P(win) = P(noFault)P(win/noFault) + (1 - P(noFault))P(win/fault)

For an example
P(noFault) = 0,70
P(win/noFault) = 0,64
P(win/fault) = 0,55

P(win) = (0,70 * 0,64) + (1 - 0,70) *0,55 = 0,613

This is a global method for calculating Pwos for a particular player on a particular surface.
I know that to calculate the most correct (Pwos) for two players, in a particular match, on a particular surface,it is necessary that these players used to have personal meetings on the same surface.
please tell me how to use this fact that they used to play each other on this surface?
Sorry for my English
thanks in advance...
 
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Hrant said:
Hello, my question about calculating the probability in tennis
I know that to calculate Pwos (probability of point won on oun serve ) for each player the following formula is used...

# P(no Fault) -The probability a player's first serve not faulting

# P(win/no Fault) -The probability a player will win the point if the first
service does not fault

# P(win/fault) -The probability a player will win the point on his second
serve

formula...
P(win) = P(noFault)P(win/noFault) + (1 - P(noFault))P(win/fault)

For an example
P(noFault) = 0,70
P(win/noFault) = 0,64
P(win/fault) = 0,55

P(win) = (0,70 * 0,64) + (1 - 0,70) *0,55 = 0,613

This is a global method for calculating Pwos for a particular player on a particular surface.
I know that to calculate the most correct (Pwos) for two players, in a particular match, on a particular surface,it is necessary that these players used to have personal meetings on the same surface.
please tell me how to use this fact that they used to play each other on this surface?
Sorry for my English
thanks in advance...

Hi Hrant,

Welcome to MHB!

This sounds like a real life problem, rather than a problem from a textbook or course. Am I right? If it's from a textbook, are we missing any additional information?
 
hello, I read the book "Prediction of In-Play Tennis" by Michelle Anne Viney. I have a question. this is about "UPDATING THE PWOS USING POINT IMPORTANCE" . the author says that when a player wins his game losing 0 points. his PWOS grows from 600 to 612. this means that the author uses twice the formula " PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ" in one game. initial Pwos=600, optimal(Ɵ)=0.005.
but i calculate with betfair and I see that it uses the formula
" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ" just one time in a game , the rest of the time it uses this formula
" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)±Ip(a,b)×Ɵ"
please tell me how to properly update Pwos with betfair?
I know that very few people can answer to this question...
Sorry for my English
I'm very grateful in advance...
 

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FORMULAS>>>

" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ"

" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)±Ip(a,b)×Ɵ"
 

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