Probability Question - Need help

  • Thread starter Thread starter firstwave
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability
AI Thread Summary
The probability question involves three boxes with different combinations of chocolate and vanilla cupcakes. After selecting a chocolate cupcake, the focus shifts to determining the probability that the remaining cupcake in the same box is also chocolate. The calculation uses conditional probability, leading to the conclusion that the probability of the second cupcake being chocolate is 2/3. This is derived from the ratio of the probability of selecting the chocolate box given a chocolate cupcake has been picked to the overall probability of picking a chocolate cupcake. The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding conditional probability in solving such problems.
firstwave
Messages
12
Reaction score
0
Probability Question - Need help please!

There are three boxes with 2 cupcakes in each one of them:

First box: 2 chocolate cupcakes
Second box: 1 chocolate, 1 vanilla
Third box: 2 vanilla cupcakes

A person randomly opens up a box and selects one cupcake. It is a chocolate cupcake. She then pulls out the remaining cupcake in the same box. What is the probability that it is a chocolate cupcake?

Ok here is what I think...
Since the question is only asking for the probability that the second cupcake in the box is chocolate, we don't have to worry about the first step of picking the right box. Therefore, the probability should be 1/2 because you can either pick a vanilla or a chocolate, but it doesn't really sound convincing...
 
Last edited:
Physics news on Phys.org
firstwave said:
There are three boxes with 2 cupcakes in each one of them:

First box: 2 chocolate cupcakes
Second box: 1 chocolate, 1 vanilla
Third box: 2 vanilla cupcakes

A person randomly opens up a box and selects one cupcake. It is a chocolate cupcake. She then pulls out the remaining cupcake in the same box. What is the probability that it is a chocolate cupcake?
It's a conditional prob. question, "what is the prob. of the box being the choc. box given a choc cake has been picked?"

P(Choc box|a choc cake has been picked) = P(Choc box and a choc cake has been picked)/P(a choc cake has been picked) = P(Choc box)/(3/6) = (1/3) / (1/2) = 2/3.

See this example.
 
Last edited:
I picked up this problem from the Schaum's series book titled "College Mathematics" by Ayres/Schmidt. It is a solved problem in the book. But what surprised me was that the solution to this problem was given in one line without any explanation. I could, therefore, not understand how the given one-line solution was reached. The one-line solution in the book says: The equation is ##x \cos{\omega} +y \sin{\omega} - 5 = 0##, ##\omega## being the parameter. From my side, the only thing I could...
Back
Top