PeterDonis,
https://phys.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Relativity/Book:_General_Relativity_(Crowell)/7:_Symmetries/7.3:_Penrose_Diagrams_and_Causality
if you draw the Penrose diagram of a collapsing star, you notice that the falling matter remains in the light cone of a far-away observer. That is, for every future time t of the outside observer, there is a straight line 45 degrees up to the right, such that the line intersects the worldline of the observer at his proper time t. The line, of course, is outside the forming horizon. This means that the mass remains in his light cone.
If the mass inside the horizon keeps decreasing, then the line is not straight, but it nevertheless is a geodesic, a path of light.
The information problem of black holes is this paradox: how can the same matter and information fall behind the horizon in the Penrose diagram and be duplicated in the hypothetical Hawking radiation outside the horizon?
The "backreaction" to Hawking radiation should explain how the mass-energy of the black hole decreases. I will look at the AdS/CFT black hole and try to decipher the backreaction there.
UPDATE: In the Penrose diagram, let us draw the worldlines of baryons B1 and B2 falling toward the horizon. The lines go up left at an angle of, say, 50 degrees from the horizontal line.
horizon
______/ photon
_____/_/_____ F4 folio
_\_\/_/______ F3 folio
__\/\/_______ F2 folio
__/\_\_______ F1 folio
_/ B1 B2
If the baryons happen to collide, then a free falling observer sees them emit a photon and he sees the combined mass-energy of B1 & B2 decrease. A late time observer sees the same thing: he receives the photon and sees the system B1 & B2 lose some kinetic energy or heat.
The geometry of spacetime at the observer is determined from the information within his light cone. The geometry correctly reflects the fact that energy was conserved in the system B1 & B2 & photon.
If B1 and B2 fall uneventfully to the horizon, then the geometry is the classical black hole.
Let us add an energy flux of Hawking radiation. We may imagine a shell around the black hole close to the horizon. The shell collects all positive energy from Hawking radiation.
The observer sees the mass-energy M fall uneventfully to the horizon. He also sees the same mass-energy M collected by the shell. Free falling observers see these same things: the mass M is in the falling matter and the mass M is also in the shell.
General relativity calculates the geometry in the next folio of spacetime from the information in the previous folio. The input is the geometry in the previous folio plus the energy density at each point, measured by a free falling observer.
In the folio F3 of the diagram, the geometry reflects both the mass M which falls to the horizon, and also the same mass M contained in the shell. This contradicts the conservation of energy.