Russian and Chinese military reaching out

[Astronuc]

Chinese warships in first call at an Iran port
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-warships-first-call-iran-port-205315307.htmlU.S., Canadian jets intercept 8 Russian aircraft
http://news.yahoo.com/us-canadian-jets-intercept-8-russian-aircraft-232846452.html
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico...ntercept-russian-aircraft-20140919-story.htmlHere we go again.

 

[nsaspook]

It's strange you never hear about us doing the same thing to test their defenses.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ssian-air-space-day-after-MH17-shot-down.html
http://www.af.mil/AboutUs/FactSheets/Display/tabid/224/Article/104608/rc-135vw-rivet-joint.aspx

 

[qspeechc]

This is news how exactly?

 

[russ_watters]

It's strange you never hear about us doing the same thing to test their defenses.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ssian-air-space-day-after-MH17-shot-down.html
http://www.af.mil/AboutUs/FactSheets/Display/tabid/224/Article/104608/rc-135vw-rivet-joint.aspx

I did hear about that. Context and motive matter, though. Surveilance is surveilance. Provocation is provocation. Neither were "testing defenses" though.

Personally, I think it is rather pathetic for them to flex their muscles that way. It would be much more impressive if they opened the bomb-bay doors on their stealth bombers just offshore -- unkloaking them like a Klingon Birds of Prey...oh, wait...they don't have any.

Given that no conventional weapons display they can offer would garner more than a yawn in reaction and we're already declining to stand-up to them in the Ukraine, I wonder why they bother with such weak displays. If anything it is re-assuring us that they still fear us at least a little, that they feel the need to do it -- while reminding us of just how superior our military is to theirs, should we ever choose to employ it.

 

[qspeechc]

"Declining to stand up to them in the Ukraine". What a laugh.

 

[russ_watters]

"Declining to stand up to them in the Ukraine". What a laugh.

Why is that a laugh?

 

[nsaspook]

I did hear about that. Context and motive matter, though. Surveilance is surveilance. Provocation is provocation. Neither were "testing defenses" though.

Yawn is right, it's a non-story and a one sided view of events. This stuff happens on all sides on the sea and in the air but if you don't push it to the limit and sometimes a little beyond (oops) you don't get the desired result.

 

[Czcibor]

Chinese warships in first call at an Iran port
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-warships-first-call-iran-port-205315307.htmlU.S., Canadian jets intercept 8 Russian aircraft
http://news.yahoo.com/us-canadian-jets-intercept-8-russian-aircraft-232846452.html
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico...ntercept-russian-aircraft-20140919-story.htmlHere we go again.

I would not say "again":
-No ideological struggle (because even if old good fashioned nationalism/imperialism is trendy again, then exporting it to new countries would not make them allies);
-No block is seriously counterbalancing the West;
-In long run China might be interested in Russian natural resources... not in the way that Russians would appreciate.

 

[Monsterboy]

China and Russia pose a futuristic challenge to the West in military terms ,perhaps by the end of this century ,the question is who will join this block ? potential candidates are Iran ,North Korea,Cuba and who else ?Pakistan ? India might avoid joining any of the blocks and maintain ties with both the blocks like it usually does. What are these blocks going to do anyway ? in what areas are they going to compete ? Perhaps over the North pole ,influence over resource rich African countries and South American countries and Space exploration and possibly even space weaponization(hope not).

 

[Czcibor]

China and Russia pose a futuristic challenge to the West in military terms ,perhaps by the end of this century ,the question is who will join this block ? potential candidates are Iran ,North Korea,Cuba and who else ?Pakistan ? India might avoid joining any of the blocks and maintain ties with both the blocks like it usually does. What are these blocks going to do anyway ? in what areas are they going to compete ? Perhaps over the North pole ,influence over resource rich African countries and South American countries and Space exploration and possibly even space weaponization(hope not).

Weak points of such block:
-India really dislikes Pakistan and don't like China too much
-China gets more powerful and looks with some temptation on loosely populated, resource rich Russian Siberia
-North Korea and Cuba economies combined, even after adjusting for PPP are smaller than Ireland

The power that can challenge the West in long run is China. However it has a rare talent to make its neighbours furious (I mean nine-dotted line) so its ability to build wider coalition is limited.

 

[Monsterboy]

Weak points of such block:
-India really dislikes Pakistan and don't like China too much
-China gets more powerful and looks with some temptation on loosely populated, resource rich Russian Siberia
-North Korea and Cuba economies combined, even after adjusting for PPP are smaller than Ireland

The power that can challenge the West in long run is China. However it has a rare talent to make its neighbours furious (I mean nine-dotted line) so its ability to build wider coalition is limited.

If China even wants to challenge the West ,it will realize that it will be very hard or even impossible to do it alone that's why I think the Russia-China alliance is here to stay. China might need Russian technology since the Chinese are currently only good at reverse engineering or stealing Western technology. All this is really far off , what might happen at the end of this century is very difficult predict but the world will be headed for some instability if China and Russia decide to counterbalance the West.

 

[Czcibor]

If China even wants to challenge the West ,it will realize that it will be very hard or even impossible to do it alone that's why I think the Russia-China alliance is here to stay. China might need Russian technology since the Chinese are currently only good at reverse engineering or stealing Western technology. All this is really far off , what might happen at the end of this century is very difficult predict but the world will be headed for some instability if China and Russia decide to counterbalance the West.

At this moment Russia is not specially good source of technology, if I have to guess I'd rather say that in long run it would be Chinese inventing mostly on their own with some help of espionage.

Of course there is one hidden assumption - 100 years. A 100 years ago Japan was clearly not considered as the West, however respected from naval Tsushima battle 1905. In A.D. 2014 it has capitalism, democracy, strong alliance with the USA and weird culture (from perspective of a chauvinistic European :D ). In a century I'd expect that quite many countries would partially westernize / evolve in the same direction that the West would move in the meantime, making the whole idea of anti-West block something hard to build.EDIT: Pending on private opinion drift towards Fukuyama's "end of history" or Borg's "We Are the Borg. You Will be Assimilated. Resistance is Futile." :D

 

[Monsterboy]

At this moment Russia is not specially good source of technology, if I have to guess I'd rather say that in long run it would be Chinese inventing mostly on their own with some help of espionage.

Of course there is one hidden assumption - 100 years. A 100 years ago Japan was clearly not considered as the West, however respected from naval Tsushima battle 1905. In A.D. 2014 it has capitalism, democracy, strong alliance with the USA and weird culture (from perspective of a chauvinistic European :D ). In a century I'd expect that quite many countries would partially westernize / evolve in the same direction that the West would move in the meantime, making the whole idea of anti-West block something hard to build.EDIT: Pending on private opinion drift towards Fukuyama's "end of history" or Borg's "We Are the Borg. You Will be Assimilated. Resistance is Futile." :D

Yes , it is unclear what Russia will become after Putin ,he might get 'elected' for another term or two,will Russia mend it's ways after Putin and stop messing around with Ukraine and other countries ? If so then China might feel isolated and might lay off it's ambition for world domination (if it has such a plan on the first place) or atleast the World will wait a little longer to see the Chinese domination.

 

[mheslep]

Books portraying Putin as a tough guy, a strong leader are best sellers China at t he moment.

 

[Astronuc]

Russian bomber patrols to reach Gulf of Mexico
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-bomber-patrols-reach-gulf-mexico-140508309.html

Fifty years ago, that would have been alarming.

 

[mheslep]

Russian bomber patrols to reach Gulf of Mexico
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-bomber-patrols-reach-gulf-mexico-140508309.html

Fifty years ago, that would have been alarming.

Why is this not alarming now?

 

[russ_watters]

Why is this not alarming now?

Because 50 years ago we thought there was a real chance Russia might invade western Europe, but today Russia is invading western Europe...er, wait, what? That didn't go like I had hoped...let me try again:

50 years ago we were worried that Russia might base bombers in Cuba that could attack the US, but today...er, wait, that won't work either.

I think people are less worried because the bombers Russia is planning to fly over the Caribbean may actually be the same actual planes they tried to send there 50 years ago! We're not worried because Russia is weaker so the threat is lower. Ironically, the fact that Russia is less of a threat is part of what makes it possible for them to project power without us trying to stop them: we're not worried about escalation to WWIII because Russia couldn't even fight a war the size of the Falklands war today.

 

[nsaspook]

I'm personally surprised there are sufficient beer-cans in Russia to keep the TU-95 fleet in the air. It is the top of the line in variable pitch counter-rotation turboprop aircraft from the 50s.

 

[mheslep]

Because 50 years ago we thought there was a real chance Russia might invade western Europe, but today Russia is invading western Europe...er, wait, what? That didn't go like I had hoped...let me try again:

50 years ago we were worried that Russia might base bombers in Cuba that could attack the US, but today...er, wait, that won't work either.

...

:D and other appropriate emoticons here

 

[Astronuc]

Because 50 years ago we thought there was a real chance Russia might invade western Europe, but today Russia is invading western Europe...er, wait, what? That didn't go like I had hoped...let me try again:

I think that's Eastern Europe, although that's certainly western Europe compared to Russia.

. . . because Russia couldn't even fight a war the size of the Falklands war today.

Except perhaps in Ukraine. Their forces stay close to home.

The long range bombers are more show. I don't know if they have many nations willing to host their aircraft, but perhaps a few like Venezuela. They can spend their money on foreign aid.

 

[SteamKing]

I'm personally surprised there are sufficient beer-cans in Russia to keep the TU-95 fleet in the air. It is the top of the line in variable pitch counter-rotation turboprop aircraft from the 50s.

While the design may be old, the TU-95 and its variants were in production until 1994. Only a small fraction of these aircraft produced are still in service, so there may be a large number of hangar queens somewhere in Russia to strip for parts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-95

OTOH, the last B-52 rolled off the production line in 1962, so there's probably no one flying one of these babies for the USAF who was born before that last bird was built.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B-52_Stratofortress

 

[Astronuc]

Why is this not alarming now?

Because - and I can't discuss.

 

[nsaspook]

While the design may be old, the TU-95 and its variants were in production until 1994. Only a small fraction of these aircraft produced are still in service, so there may be a large number of hangar queens somewhere in Russia to strip for parts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-95

I have a huge amount of respect for the air-crews of those old tanks. One of the longest continuous military flight I've been on was a trip from Clark in the Philippines to Diego Garcia in a old Lockheed C-141 in jump-seats. A flying torture chamber.
At least our old planes are being turned into something useful.


Our B-52 and their old 'Bear' aircraft have almost no capability as strategic forces in this era and had little for most of the 20th century. The TU-95 was a good ELINT patrol platform during the cold war because of endurance (~8000 miles) but the planes in isolation were never a threat to our forces. Their deployments to hunt our sea based forces was a game I've played many times long ago. The end game was never them surprising us in some cold-war attack scenario as they only want to analyze and capture the signals of our response to the contacts like they are doing now with the current flights.

 

[SteamKing]

I have a huge amount of respect for the air-crews of those old tanks. One of the longest continuous military flight I've been on was a trip from Clark in the Philippines to Diego Garcia in a old Lockheed C-141 in jump-seats. A flying torture chamber.
At least our old planes are being turned into something useful.


Our B-52 and their old 'Bear' aircraft have almost no capability as strategic forces in this era and had little for most of the 20th century. The TU-95 was a good ELINT patrol platform during the cold war because of endurance (~8000 miles) but the planes in isolation were never a threat to our forces. Their deployments to hunt our sea based forces was a game I've played many times long ago. The end game was never them surprising us in some cold-war attack scenario as they only want to analyze and capture the signals of our response to the contacts like they are doing now with the current flights.

Once ICBMs, IRBMs, and SLBMs were introduced, the strategic bombers had to be relegated to tactical warfare roles or retired altogether. With SAM sites proliferating in the USSR, there was no way a high altitude bomber was going to survive, so the B-52s had to come in low or not at all. Not an easy transition for a large aircraft like the B-52.

 

[nsaspook]

More breathless reports of flying 'beer cans'.
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russian-bombers-threaten-guam/

 

[Astronuc]

Putin in Egypt in bid to expand Russian influence
http://news.yahoo.com/putin-visits-egypt-bid-expand-influence-062310787.html

Cairo (AFP) - President Vladimir Putin arrived on Monday in Egypt as Russia seeks to expand its reach in the Arab world's most populous country at a time when Cairo-Washington ties remain frayed.

Putin's first visit to Egypt in a decade comes after a 2011 popular uprising that ousted ex-strongman Hosni Mubarak, whom he leader met on his previous trip in 2005.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomed Putin on arrival at Cairo's international airport where the two leaders held talks for half an hour, officials said.

 

[SteamKing]

Putin in Egypt in bid to expand Russian influence
http://news.yahoo.com/putin-visits-egypt-bid-expand-influence-062310787.html

Looks like pressing the Reset Button is going to put US-Egypt relations back to the time of Nasser, when Egypt was a client of the Soviet Union.

 

[Astronuc]

Looks like pressing the Reset Button is going to put US-Egypt relations back to the time of Nasser, when Egypt was a client of the Soviet Union.

Yeah - I was thinking the same thing.

 

[Czcibor]

Putin in Egypt in bid to expand Russian influence
http://news.yahoo.com/putin-visits-egypt-bid-expand-influence-062310787.html

Publicity stunt? Except a possibility of a minor arms deal which common interest they may share?

 

[HossamCFD]

Looks like pressing the Reset Button is going to put US-Egypt relations back to the time of Nasser, when Egypt was a client of the Soviet Union.

The atmosphere in the Egyptian media is certainly reminiscent of the Nasser era. However, I don't think there is an indication that the current regime is seeking to significantly harm relations with the US. Russia simply cannot provide the same level of aid the US used to. It looks like they're only trying to play the US against Russia to get the best deals they can get. Afterall, this is exactly what Nasser initially attempted until the west called his bluff.

Other reasons include, as Czcibor mentioned, a publicity show for internal consumption, as well as trying to persuade the west to be less critical of the current regime's strategy of cracking down on dissent.

Except a possibility of a minor arms deal which common interest they may share?

Indeed. It looks like Egypt might be getting some new toys

When the Russian defence and foreign ministers visited Cairo in November, Russian media said the two countries were close to signing a $3bn (£2bn) deal for MiG-29 fighters and attack helicopters.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-31310348