Saving Ash from a Volcanic Eruption: A Geologist's Perspective

[mheslep]

Yellowstone... that's the one that probably reduced the effective human pop of the world to less than 20K (EDIT: About 80K years ago that is), right? ...

640,000 ya. No Homo sapiens in N. American then, or anywhere else. Early Neanderthals may have seen the funky sunsets in Africa.

 

[Borek]

About ash amount plot:

The biggest recent event was Mt Tambora in 1815, 160 km³.

I am not thinking about single events, I am thinking about average. There is no doubt that ash in the air is an important climate changing factor and I wonder how this factor evolved in time. Sure there will be a spike after huge eruptions so they are important, but they don't tell everything.

About sunset:

Well, it sounds as though this ash and other particulates will be airborne for days... I'd say you'll get some more chances, and it may look more spectacular once the particles settle a bit into the lower atmosphere and mix with water.

Thay said in Polish TV that the amount of ash over Poland is at peak at the moment and weather (wind/air circulation) simulations suggest it should go down in the next few days. Could be you are right about visible effect beinbg more prominent later, no idea.

 

[mheslep]

About ash amount plot:



I am not thinking about single events, I am thinking about average. There is no doubt that ash in the air is an important climate changing factor

I think the ash itself has a very short lived impact on weather. The aerosols, especially SOx, have longer term impacts (couple years) as I understand it.

 

[Andre]

I am not thinking about single events, I am thinking about average. There is no doubt that ash in the air is an important climate changing factor and I wonder how this factor evolved in time. Sure there will be a spike after huge eruptions so they are important, but they don't tell everything.

There would be a lot to tell about, given ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/chem/volcano.txt but that has to wait until these dark ages are over.

 

[Andre]

This was our volcanic ash sunset. Edit: more in this thread

I was not too impressed but the slight haze could have been caused by the volcanic ash

 

[Frame Dragger]

There would be a lot to tell about, given ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/chem/volcano.txt but that has to wait until these dark ages are over.

"The King is dead, long live the King!" Eh? I don't think our age gets lighter from here on... :sad:

Beautiful picture however, whatever the cause.

 

[Galteeth]

Many news reports have been talking about the risk of Katla erupting. How much of a risk/concern is this?

 

[Frame Dragger]

Many news reports have been talking about the risk of Katla erupting. How much of a risk/concern is this?

It's certainly due for an eruption, but I don't know that it means it will soon. This seems to be on the HuffingtonPost, which may be a lot of things, but not a really great source for science. There is no seismological data or gas emissions to indicate increased activity.

Then again, it's either right on time for an eruption, or about 50 years OVERdue. In essence, it's a safe bet for a reporter and a story that will reach print.

 

[ViewsofMars]

Hi everyone. I just wanted to briefly share with PF's audience two recently published pamphlets by The International Volcanic Health Hazard Network . "They are now avaiable in English, Japanese, French Spanish, Portuguese and Swahili with Italian versions being available shortly."
http://www.ivhhn.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=55&Itemid=61

Please note that following at the bottem of the pamplet:
"Document was written by Dr Claire Horwell of the University of Cambridge, UK, with assistance from staff of the United States Geological Survey and GNS Science, New Zealand. The IVHHN is grateful to the Leverhulme Trust, UK, for funding associated meetings, and to the following people for reviewing this guideline document:
- Dr Bob Maynard, Department of Health, London, UK;
- Steve Brantley, USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hawai'i, USA;
- Dr David Johnston, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand;
- Dr Peter Baxter, Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, UK;
- Dr Carol Stewart, Wellington, New Zealand.
- Scott Barnard, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand"

Here are the two pamphlets in English:

1.

GUIDELINES ON PREPAREDNESS BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER AN ASHFALL
This document has been prepared by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network
(IVHHN), Cities and Volcanoes Commission, GNS Science and the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) to promote the safety of those who experience volcanic
ashfall.

It details procedures to follow if warning of a volcanic ashfall is given, recommends
what to do during ashfall, and what methods are most effective for cleaning up
volcanic ash after the event.
[Please read on . . .]
http://www.ivhhn.org/images/pamphlets/Preparedness_Guidelines_English_WEB.pdf

2.

THE HEALTH HAZARDS OF VOLCANIC ASH
A guide for the public
This document has been prepared by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network
(IVHHN), Cities and Volcanoes Commission, GNS Science and the United States Geological
Survey (USGS) to promote the safety of those who
experience volcanic ashfall.

This guide explains the potential health effects of volcanic ash and gives details on how to
protect yourself and your family in the event of a volcanic ashfall.
[Please read on . . .]
http://www.ivhhn.org/images/pamphlets/Health_Guidelines_English_WEB.pdf

A few news articles about the most recent Iceland volcanic erruption that is having a major effect for those who live in Europe. My sincerest and warmest wishes for "better weather" in the near future to those who are affected and take good care of yourself and loved ones.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8624748.stm
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/icelands_disruptive_volcano.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8626765.stm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/17/volcano-disruption-flights-grounded-ash
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/iceland-volcano-plume.html
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/ne...cano-ash-set-to-fall-on-Ireland-91151034.html

 

[tiny-tim]

can't planes fly lower?

Why can't planes fly lower ?

(years ago, a plane flew through an ash cloud, all its engines stopped, it plummeted thousands of feet, and the engines restarted when it reached clear air again)

 

[Matterwave]

Why can't planes fly lower ?

(years ago, a plane flew through an ash cloud, all its engines stopped, it plummeted thousands of feet, and the engines restarted when it reached clear air again)

From my very limited knowledge of planes, I think the air-altitudes are all split up for different purposes. The commercial flights have a specific range of altitudes they fly at, it may not be easy to allow them to fly at different altitudes.

Furthermore, there could be sound pollution from airplanes flying too low...or other safety hazards...

I'm not sure myself haha.

 

[Borek]

Other things ignored - low flight means high fuel consumption, shorter range and higher costs.

 

[Andre]

Optimum flight level is the tropopause. The jets I flew would use typically 2500 lbs/per hour at the tropopause versus maybe 6-7000 lbs/hr at low level to maintain 480 knots true airspeed.

Best cruising speed is a complex function of air density and air temperature. An important parameter for the engines is combination of temperature and the mach number which are directly related and making it perform best at lowest temperature. This is at the tropopause and above, which is typically at some 33,000 feet, however with big variations.

Going higher means less dense air at rougly the same temperature, however the reduction in drag is offset by reduced engine performance due to the lack of oxygen.

So the ash is below the best altitude for cruise flight, however I have no idea about the effects of low concentration ash during climb or descent in those layers.

 

[tomkeus]

I'm watching this entire situation and I'm amazed at incompetence bureaucrats across Europe demonstrated handling this situation.

Apparently, flight bans all over Europe were issued based on computer simulations run by UK Met Office. Although I understand that, because it is better to be safe than sorry I cannot understand why hasn't anyone in Europe took actual measurements or test flights after that. It took initiative of KLM and Lufthansa to get actual planes in the air for people to start talking that ban should be partially lifted based on real and not computer generated data.

Lack of action of flight regulating bodies and meteorological organizations to deploy balloons or flying labs or other measurements across Europe may prove to have cost Europe billions of euros.

Now, office eggheads probably realized that they've dropped the ball handling post-ban situation so they will probably stick with the total ban for some time yet in order to save their public face.

 

[cristo]

Apparently, flight bans all over Europe were issued based on computer simulations run by UK Met Office. Although I understand that, because it is better to be safe than sorry I cannot understand why hasn't anyone in Europe took actual measurements or test flights after that.

Err.. firstly the simulations were not just done by the Met Office in the UK; simulations have been done by many other European equivalents. In fact, once professor whom I saw interviewed yesterday say that there was a remarkable level of agreement between the different simulations. Secondly, planes have been up there collecting data, and test flights continue to be done. However, it makes sense that such flights are done by suitable aircraft to try and gauge the situation, and not by just seeing whether a commercial airliner can fly through the ash.

It took initiative of KLM and Lufthansa to get actual planes in the air for people to start talking that ban should be partially lifted based on real and not computer generated data.

The problem here is that off the back of these flights one can only show that a plane can fly through the ash. However, the KLM test flight was once flight for around one hour. This is not really good enough to say that the European airspace should be opened and service resumed as normal. Aircraft make many journeys in a day, and so will be flying through this ash over and over again, which will presumably bear a toll on the engines. Then there's the issue of how often should the engines be checked: after every flight like with the test flights, or at the end of every day?

Alternatively, you could just stick two fingers up like the Russians and Ukrainians but, well, that's not really too sensible, is it?

 

[sophiecentaur]

Other things ignored - low flight means high fuel consumption, shorter range and higher costs.

That doesn't seem too much of a hardship compared with the Total Loss at the moment. Plenty of people would be prepared to pay a 'low altitude surcharge' in order to get home on time.
It would mean that priority transport could still get through. If long haul were not possible at low altitude, the majority of long haul flights could still be made a full altitude.

It would need the Air Lanes to be temporarily re-planned in the affected area as well but that problem would not be as great if the total number of flights were a lot less during an emergency.
I wonder if this event has prompted anyone to think of devising an emergency low-altitude plan for the eventuality of this happening again - somewhere in the World.

 

[Frame Dragger]

That doesn't seem too much of a hardship compared with the Total Loss at the moment. Plenty of people would be prepared to pay a 'low altitude surcharge' in order to get home on time.
It would mean that priority transport could still get through. If long haul were not possible at low altitude, the majority of long haul flights could still be made a full altitude.

It would need the Air Lanes to be temporarily re-planned in the affected area as well but that problem would not be as great if the total number of flights were a lot less during an emergency.
I wonder if this event has prompted anyone to think of devising an emergency low-altitude plan for the eventuality of this happening again - somewhere in the World.

Did you not read Andre's post? We're not talking about a little boost in fuel, we're talking about a HUGE increase, and a subsequent DECREASE in range. It's cheaper and easier to fly around an ash cloud than below it, not to mention that ANY crash at this point would be instantly blamed on negligence by the airlines.

The difference in fuel is the difference between a profit, and a loss. When you add the HUGE decrease in range, there is no way for it to be feasible. Keep in mind also that people don't want jets roaring overhead at 10-12,000 feet, nor would any government's military allow that.

This has happened, it will happen again, and there is no contingency other than boats. That's real life.

 

[Borek]

I wonder if this event has prompted anyone to think of devising an emergency low-altitude plan for the eventuality of this happening again - somewhere in the World.

1821 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull lasted over half a year.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Did you not read Andre's post? We're not talking about a little boost in fuel, we're talking about a HUGE increase, and a subsequent DECREASE in range. It's cheaper and easier to fly around an ash cloud than below it, not to mention that ANY crash at this point would be instantly blamed on negligence by the airlines.

The difference in fuel is the difference between a profit, and a loss. When you add the HUGE decrease in range, there is no way for it to be feasible. Keep in mind also that people don't want jets roaring overhead at 10-12,000 feet, nor would any government's military allow that.

This has happened, it will happen again, and there is no contingency other than boats. That's real life.

Interesting. I have taken in all you have written. I'm not sure the military would have a say in the matter if the GBP insisted. . . . (LOL).
I searched and scanned through the thread but could find no actual figures and it is the actual number that count in a problem like this. Which number is the post, so I can look at it?

 

[Frame Dragger]

Interesting. I have taken in all you have written. I'm not sure the military would have a say in the matter if the GBP insisted. . . . (LOL).
I searched and scanned through the thread but could find no actual figures and it is the actual number that count in a problem like this. Which number is the post, so I can look at it?

Never underestimate the efficacy of SAMs...

Optimum flight level is thetropopause. The jets I flew would use typically 2500 lbs/per hour at the tropopause versus maybe 6-7000 lbs/hr at low level to maintain 480 knots true airspeed.

Best cruising speed is a complex function of air density and air temperature. An important parameter for the engines is combination of temperature and the mach number which are directly related and making it perform best at lowest temperature. This is at the tropopause and above, which is typically at some 33,000 feet, however with big variations.

Going higher means less dense air at rougly the same temperature, however the reduction in drag is offset by reduced engine performance due to the lack of oxygen.

So the ash is below the best altitude for cruise flight, however I have no idea about the effects of low concentration ash during climb or descent in those layers.

EDIT: For the record, the effect of ascent and descent to form a measure of glass on the engines, and while it may or may not be fatal or damaging (it usually takes quite some time for engines to fail from volcanic ash, and you can get out if it if you're lucky) it would certainly be terrible for the engines in the long run, and any crash would be hailed as grossly negligent. Outrage over a plane crash due to a desire to travel... I can see the news stories, lawsuits, and criminal case now.

 

[ViewsofMars]

I'm adding on to my previous message which I think was extremely important!

I also want to share a wonderful website to explore by John Seach. He has a very impressive bio. I wouldn’t mind going on a trek with him.
http://www.volcanolive.com/john.html

On his website today, Sunday 18th April 2010:

Eyjafjallajokull volcano, Iceland
Ash emissions are continuing from Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland. Winds are blowing the ash over Europe, causing flights to remain grounded. All flights to and from Britain have been canceled until at least 7pm today. Ashfall has been reported in Britain. Five million travelers are stranded, waiting for flights to resume. Some may be waiting for more than a week to find available seats. If flight disruptions continue into this week there will be a shortage of some food products in Britain, which normally come in by air from east Asia and Africa. The grounding of flights has already cost the British economy about £1 billion, with £230m losses for every day of further disruption. The initial eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano last month was basalt, while the new eruption under the glacier last week involved andesite.
http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html

An article on BBC from today which brings added concern:

Ash cloud puts lives of bone marrow patients at risk
The ban on air travel in much of Europe is putting the lives of people waiting for bone marrow transplants at risk.
[Read on . . .]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8628078.stm

More links :
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/world/europe/18ash.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8627720.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8628253.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8627720.stm

They seem to be comparing this event worse than 911 as far as closing
down air space.

 

[Frame Dragger]

I'm adding on to my previous message which I think was extremely important!

I also want to share a wonderful website to explore by John Seach. He has a very impressive bio. I wouldn’t mind going on a trek with him.
http://www.volcanolive.com/john.html

On his website today, Sunday 18th April 2010:



An article on BBC from today which brings added concern:



More links :
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/world/europe/18ash.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8627720.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8628253.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8627720.stm

They seem to be comparing this event worse than 911 as far as closing
down air space.

Oh yeah, nature always wins in those situations. Frankly, this is pretty impressive and clearly medical services have a lot of work to do. Perhaps ground-effect (on water) airplanes can be a viable solution for these kinds of emergencies, but not for mass transit.

 

[sophiecentaur]

@Framedragger

I read that post but the info is very sparse and doesn't really prove anything about low altitude, low speed flight economics. Clearly it's not what modern jets were designed for and their economics are on a bit of a knife edge.
Andre may well know what he's talking about but we normally expect more info or a reference rather than just accepting an 'assurance'.

I can't help thinking that planes stack for an hour or more around Heathrow and Gatwick and that is all accounted for in the flight plan. Is that so very different from a slow trip to Paris or Brussels?
It would be nice to see just how 'unthinkable' it is. The present situation is far from 'thinkable' too.
Is there a knowledgeable Engineer on the forum who can give information (without hyperbole) about this? I'd love to know the real situation.
After all, we wouldn't rely on what the Press have to say about anything else in our lives.

 

[ViewsofMars]

"

After all, we wouldn't rely on what the Press have to say about anything else in our lives.

"

Well sophiecentaur, I'm not Framedagger, but your comment is merely *your* opinion. Many press releases are made by scientists. And, public officials do consult with scientists and engineers as well as with news reporters.

I surely wouldn't wish to dismiss the fact that it wasn't a fabricated story just so the press could impress the public with lies. If planes aren't being flown it's for a darn good reason. Please remember that public safety comes first.

 

[Andre]

About aircraft range and altitude. Maybe this http://selair.selkirk.ca/Training/Aerodynamics/range_jet.htm helps a bit, especially this sixth graph.

[PLAIN]http://selair.selkirk.ca/Training/Aerodynamics/graphics/altitude-jet1.gif

Notice that a fuel flow of 540 lbs/hr generates a max range speed of 200 knots true airspeed (KTAS) at sea level and 440 KTAS at 45,000 feet. Notice also that the sea level curve is much steeper, so flying faster than best range is at a greater penalty than at high altitude.

Also I expect this graph to be based on air density only since -as said- the temperature and related mach number play a big role for engine performance/efficiency and these are not linear in that altutide range due to the tropopause.

The exact numbers are not very relevant but it gives an impression of the rate of changes in range versus altitude.

 

[Frame Dragger]

Thanks Andre, ViewsofMars... I didn't realize that this wasn't very common knowledge re: prop vs. jet engines. *shrug*

 

[ViewsofMars]

"

So the ash is below the best altitude for cruise flight, however I have no idea about the effects of low concentration ash during climb or descent in those layers.

"

Andre, you aren't a pilot are you? A simple yes or no will do. Honestly, I've known a few pilots. They wouldn't risk their life or passengers if there was risk. Have you read any articles where airline pilots are protesting the closure of air space in Europe? I haven't.

"

Thanks Andre, ViewsofMars... I didn't realize that this wasn't very common knowledge re: prop vs. jet engines. *shrug*

"

*Shrug* all you want FrameDragger! I said airline pilots!

 

[Andre]

""

Andre, you aren't a pilot are you? A simple yes or no will do. Honestly, I've known a few pilots. They wouldn't risk their life or passengers if there was risk. Have you read any articles where airline pilots are protesting the closure of air space in Europe? I haven't.

I used to be pilot but it's not a simple yes-no at all.

Obviously there is a lowest concentration at which harm is negliglible and concentrations at which major damage is inevitable. For instance, how many times have aircraft landed in dusty hazy conditions near big cities and that is clearly visible?

So it's rather impossible to say something useful here, but just suppose for arguing that the actual concentration is only 5% or 10% or 30% of the damage threshold in the regions where it counts, why the fuss then?

It's just that these things have probably never been tested because it used to be a non factor in the past, so probably nobody has a clue what the best decision is.

 

[Frame Dragger]

""

Andre, you aren't a pilot are you? A simple yes or no will do. Honestly, I've known a few pilots. They wouldn't risk their life or passengers if there was risk. Have you read any articles where airline pilots are protesting the closure of air space in Europe? I haven't.

I can't speak for Andre, but I'm no pilot, yet I know that volcanic ash is TRICKY. I've been trying to find a citation online, but I recall a NatGeo or Discovery program which described a plane that had flown into volcanic ash. The pilots had no CLUE what was happening, other than intermittant engine failure. They finally figured out that it was the ash vitrifying in the engines, but only once they landed. The pilots were simply bright and lucky enough to realize that they couldn't fly at their normal cruising altitude.

To be blunt, what information do you expect? It takes tiime for the glass to form, it's almost impossible to detect, and then BOOM, your engine can fail. Ascent and Descent are relatively brief compared to the time spend at altitude, and no one is willing to take that kind of risk. You don't crash test passenger jets in volcanic ash, and isolating the effect to a particular period of ascent or descent is pointless outside of a lab.

You don't fly air-breathing engines in ash, period.

@ViewsofMars: *shrug*
@Andre: Sorry if I stepped on your toes with this simul-post. I'll delete it if you prefer.

 

[lisab]

""

Andre, you aren't a pilot are you? A simple yes or no will do. Honestly, I've known a few pilots. They wouldn't risk their life or passengers if there was risk. Have you read any articles where airline pilots are protesting the closure of air space in Europe? I haven't.

""

*Shrug* all you want FrameDragger! I said airline pilots!

Haven't heard of protests, but the pilots who made http://www.cnn.com/2010/TRAVEL/04/18/volcano.ash.test.flights/index.html?hpt=T1" must not have felt they were in danger, otherwise they would not have flown. The test flights, btw, apparently showed no ill effects from the concentrations of ash through which they flew (which I presume were quite low).

I think it's a good bet that there is a concentration of ash which is safe to fly through; what that level is isn't known. Which raises the question: is there a way to measure concentration of airborne ash? Because before we can determine what level is safe to fly through, we need a way to measure it.