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Hello again!

I'm stuck and need a little push.

Referring to the diagram: out of a group of smokers, 20% are heavy smokers, 30% are light smokers, and 50% are non-smokers. A light smoker is twice as likely to die as a non-smoker but half as likely as a heavy smoker.

H: heavy smoker

L: light smoker

N: non-smoker

D: die

So, I created the tree diagram (see attached) and understand the relationship. I come up with the following.

[tex]P(D|L)=2P(D|N)=\frac{1}{2}P(D|H)[/tex]

[tex]P(H|D)=\frac{P(H)P(D|H)}{P(D)}[/tex]

and likewise for P(L|D) and P(N|D)

I need to figure out what P(H|D) is given the info and the tree I created.

Can someone nudge me in the right direction?

Thanks,

dogma

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# Smoker Tree Diagram

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