Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[stoomart]

Yesterday's X8.2 solar flare produced halo CME (partially heading towards Earth ...).

Wow, is this flurry of major flares very unusual? Solar warming perhaps? : )

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wow, is this flurry of major flares very unusual? Solar warming perhaps? : )

I think it's just a final breakout before solar minimum. But rare, indeed!
Or it may be a random, but normal, fluctuation in the solar cycle.

 

[davenn]

Yesterday's X8.2 solar flare produced halo CME (partially heading towards Earth ...).

So far there hasn't been any warnings relating to that flare. I suspect it is just too far around the limb to be significantly geo-effective

On the other hand, there has been a warning released for a CME relating to the coronal hole that will probably cause unsettled to active conditions with probability of some auroral activity

 

[Stavros Kiri]

So far there hasn't been any warnings relating to that flare. I suspect it is just too far around the limb to be significantly geo-effective

On the other hand, there has been a warning released for a CME relating to the coronal hole that will probably cause unsettled to active conditions with probability of some auroral activity

Here is what I found:
1. "S2 Solar Radiation Storm
Infrequent effects on HF radio through polar regions and satellite operations" (as we speak)
2. R2 Radio emission (beginning ~07:29 UTC) [lasting/lasted about an hour or so] ... (I think, because I lost the original alert)
3. Latest news

Monday, 11 September 2017 - 16:42 UTC
X8.2 coronal mass ejection
4. Latest news

Monday, 11 September 2017 - 23:01 UTC
Coronal hole faces Earth

(Source: SpaceWeatherLive.com and spaceweather.com)

What do you make of those?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Here is what is interesting from the CME link (#3 above):
A) "Yesterday's X8.2 (R3-strong) solar flare from sunspot region 2673 was one of the most spectacular solar flares we have ever seen. Not only was this the second strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle, it also launched an extremely fast and broad coronal mass ejection. What a way to say goodbye! Let's hope it survives its 2 week journey on the far side of the Sun!

As a matter of fact, sunspot region 2673 was already behind the western limb when the solar flare erupted. We will never know for sure but this event might have been even stronger than an X8.2 solar flare if sunspot region 2673 was still present on the earth-facing side of the solar disk. You can find more information in yesterday's news article.

Following the flare, we quickly reached the strong S3 solar radiation storm level which only takes place about 10 times during a 11 year solar cycle. Possible effects of the ongoing S3 solar radiation storm are: degraded HF radio propagation at polar regions and navigation position errors, satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents, significant radiation hazard to astronauts on extra-vehicular activity (EVA) and high-latitude aircraft passengers."B) "The flanks of a coronal mass ejection are always a bit slower than the bulk so we can't go with 2.700km/s but the transit time should still be around one and a half day or about 36 to 40 hours (calculated with SARM) which puts the expected impact time of this coronal mass ejection at 06:00 UTC on 12 September 2017 with a plus/minus of 6 hours. Note that the NOAA SWPC has a much later impact time late on September 13 which was a surprise to us.

It remains to be seen how strong the magnetic field will be at impact as this is a value that can disappoint with these glancing blows but a distinct increase in the solar wind speed up to at least 700km/s should be possible. A minor G1 geomagnetic storm will be possible after the plasma cloud arrives."

Personaly I think that chances for aurora are slim this time.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"Latest news

Tuesday, 12 September 2017 - 19:54 UTC
Coronal mass ejection arrival"

G1 minor Geomagnetic storm warning was issued the last hour or so (Kp 5 - Threshold reached 19:49 UTC)

+ (quoting from spaceweather.com):

"THE CME HAS ARRIVED: Arriving earlier than expected, the flank of a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 12th (20:00 UT), and the impact has sparked a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. NOAA forecasters say the storm could intensify to G2-class on Sept. 13th. If so, auroras in the USA could appear as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. This is the CME that was hurled obliquely toward us by the X8-flare of Sept. 10th."

+ Edit (report highlights added from spaceweatherlive.com):

Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm expected
The observed Kp index is 5- but the predicted K-indice of 6- indicates that stronger geomagnetic conditions might occur at this moment.

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (575.7 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.27nT), the direction is North(1.8nT).

S1 Solar Radiation Storm
Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Moderate G2 Geomagnetic storm (Kp 6), Threshold reached 2:59UTC.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

So finally, Tue 12 Sept (and yesterday Wed. etc.), AR2673 did leave behind a last small aurora activity for us [due to its latest close to limb X8.2 monster flare - see earlier above]. (See https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/for-those-aurora-chasers-a-heads-up.923833/page-2#post-5840153)

What a nice way to say goodbuy! May be it will return alive if it survives the approximately 2weeks rotation around our star. But for now the "devil" is gone! ...
Here is a current view of the Sun (relatively quiet - just one group 2680 [current 2 stretch spotless days]):

But currently we have active geomagnetic conditions due to the other factor: the recent coronal hole (see earlier above). [See upcoming post to the above @davenn 's aurora thread]

Here is also a review video for 2673:
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/310/20170914-sunspot-region-2673-youtube-video

 

[Stavros Kiri]

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 6-

The solar wind speed is currently high (714.1 km/sec.)

Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

 

[Stavros Kiri]

The Earth is still inside a stream of solar wind flowing from this northern coronal hole:

(Credit: NASA/SDO)

As a result we've been having, almost continuously since the last post/update, active geomagnetic conditions (max Kp 4-6 per case). The last one today, Sept. 18, which reached threshold 08:56 UTC, and it was a G1 (Kp5) minor geomagnetic storm.

Quiet right now (Kp 2). Only one group of spots AR2680 etc.

And news (from a source that I haven't confirmed yet): AR2673 is still active with recent significant eruptions on the farside ... and due to return around Sept 23. We're waiting! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

New spot group appeared (2681) [~yesterday?]. The old one (2680) is almost getting ready to depart.

Relatevely quiet ... + size 60 for both groups

Note: (to everyone) Anytime an update or alert comes to your attention before me etc. please post. It helps the event to get to our attention ASAP or at least faster. [I of course try to do my best too, but I have also several other projects].
(Relative news, articles, links, pictures and videos are also of course welcome, etc. - see description of thread in the first post ... - almost anything scientific related to Solar Physics, which seems to be getting more and more interest ...)
Also thanks to @davenn (Dave) for his valuable input and for correcting me when/if I am wrong ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Also 2673 is probably just around the corner, if it makes it (a couple of more days?).
Get your cameras, telescopes etc. ready to particularly post photos of the two current groups etc. to the new thread:
"Solar imaging and techniques" (by @davenn )
(https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/solar-imaging-and-techniques.925656/ )

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I received the following alert by spaceweatherlive.com this morning (06:30 UTC): (just got around to it to post it here, since no one else posted it)

"A coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~ 3 days"

(www.spaceweatherlive.com)

 

[davenn]

I received the following alert by spaceweatherlive.com this morning (06:30 UTC): (just got around to it to post it here, since no one else posted it)

yup, been watching it for a few days, it's pretty small. I am not expecting much so didn't bother to report it ...but at this time of the year, we can be surprised

I'm more interested in the much bigger one that will be geo-effective in another couple of days.

Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Is this what I think it is? (left limb)

AR2673 (the "devil") returning!? ...

Yes it is! :
"Latest news

Sunday, 24 September 2017 - 14:09 UTC
Coronal holes faces Earth, AR2673 returns"

So indeed, AR2673 survived the rotation around our star, even being active in the meantime with monster farsided eruptions, and now the "devil" of sunspot activity is back! ... Who knows what to expect ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

But (direct quote from the link above):
"Sunspot region 2673 returns
Bad news! Old sunspot region 2673 has returned on the Earth-facing solar disk. It decayed heavily on the far side and it is now a simple Alpha sunspot region with only one sunspot surrounded by large amounts of faculae. This sunspot region is unlikely to produce strong solar flares. It will likely receive sunspot number 2681 later today or tomorrow."

(Probably they mean 2682 ... [their typo?/ + I fixed two more typos there])

 

[Stavros Kiri]

After some moderately regural Sun activity in the meantime period since the last update (see the other previously quoted threads and links for updates), today (Tue 10 Oct, 2017) there's finally a spotless day (and a new coronal hole):
"

No sunspot regions on the visible disc today

Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
Latest news

Tuesday, 10 October 2017 - 15:46 UTC
Coronal hole faces Earth
More news"

Note: previous spotless days: yesterday and Aug. 1, 2017;
current stretch spotless days: 3;
Number of spotless days in 2017: 58 .

But/and of course we are heading towards a solar minimum ... (after a last [perhaps] random breakout this Summer, with AR2673 the leader ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Still spotless day today (Wed. 11 Oct., 2017).
Number of spotless days in 2017: 59
Current stretch spotless days: 4
Predicted Kp max: 5

(Relevant topic [rel. to recent Space Weather almanac]) Here is something interesting!:
Strong Solar Storm Sparked Planet-Wide Aurora on Mars

(or https://www.space.com/38416-solar-storm-mars-auroras-nasa-maven.html)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Still no spots, today Sat. 14 Oct., 2017. A few regular geomagnetic storms these days (due to sporadic coronal holes (part of the regular sun activity) - not flares this time ...), the latest one (G1, Kp 5), a little less than an hour ago (08:59 UTC). Other than that (or before that):

Latest geomagnetic storms:
1. more storms prior that one (also today, this morning), similar.
2. 2017/10/13 Kp6 (G2).
3. 2017/10/12 Kp5 (G1).

Number of spotless days in 2017: 62
Current stretch spotless days: 7

We'll probably do the spot count next time, but it seems that with no doubt we're now heading straight towards solar minimum.

P.S. Also:
Last day with a spot: Oct 7, 2017 (Group region 2683, on the limb)

First (locally) spotless day: Oct 8 ...

Finally, another storm (G1, Kp5), threshold reached 10:08 UTC (just a few minutes ago - while editing).
[but there was another edit after that, just now, so for time estimates I mention that the previous one was about 50' ago]

 

[davenn]

a large CME was observed on the 18th Oct (UT) originating around the side of the east limb, presumably from a large solar flare
This should be from one of the returning sunspot active regions

The two bright objects to the left are ... upper = Jupiter, lower = Mercury

This is quite a significant CME, but doesn't appear to be Earth directedDave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Spotless Sun these days. Regular and otherwise somewhat expected solar activity in this period since the last posts above. (For some details etc. e.g. cf. davenn's solar-relevant threads already quoted earlier ...). Approaching solar minimum.

I received the following interesting one on my e-mail just a couple of days ago, with title 'The Sun is Dimming as Solar Minimum Approaches':

"Space Weather News for Dec. 15, 2017
http://spaceweather.com
https://www.facebook.com/spaceweatherdotcom

THE SUN IS DIMMING: Today at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, SpaceX launched a new sensor to the International Space Station named "TSIS-1." Its mission: to measure the dimming of the sun. As the sunspot cycle plunges toward its 11-year minimum, NASA satellites are tracking a slight but significant decline in total solar irradiance (TSI). TSIS-1 will monitor this dimming with better precision than previous satellites as Solar Minimum approaches in the years ahead. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com to learn more about TSIS-1 and natural variations in the sun's electromagnetic output."

The Sun is Dimming! ... Sounds "scary" but ... explained.
Any comments?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Here is something interesting (posted today March 5, 2018 on spaceweather.com ):

"THE WORSENING COSMIC RAY SITUATION:Cosmic rays are bad–and they're getting worse. That's the conclusion of a new paperjust published in the research journal Space Weather. The authors, led by Prof. Nathan Schwadron of the University of New Hampshire, show that radiation from deep space is dangerous and intensifying faster than previously predicted.

The story begins four years ago when Schwadron and colleagues first sounded the alarm about cosmic rays. Analyzing data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument onboard NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), they found that cosmic rays in the Earth-Moon system were peaking at levels never before seen in the Space Age. The worsening radiation environment, they pointed out, was a potential peril to astronauts, curtailing how long they could safely travel through space.

This figure from their original 2014 papershows the number of days a 30-year old male astronaut flying in a spaceship with 10 g/cm2of aluminum shielding could go before hitting NASA-mandated radiation limits:

In the 1990s, the astronaut could spend 1000 days in interplanetary space. In 2014 … only 700 days. "That's a huge change," says Schwadron.

Galactic cosmic rays come from outside the solar system. They are a mixture of high-energy photons and sub-atomic particles accelerated toward Earth by supernova explosions and other violent events in the cosmos. Our first line of defense is the sun: The sun's magnetic field and solar wind combine to create a porous 'shield' that fends off cosmic rays attempting to enter the solar system. The shielding action of the sun is strongest during Solar Maximum and weakest during Solar Minimum–hence the 11-year rhythm of the mission duration plot above.

The problem is, as the authors note in their new paper, the shield is weakening: "Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the Space Age. As a result of this remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of cosmic rays."

Back in 2014, Schwadron et al used a leading model of solar activity to predict how bad cosmic rays would become during the next Solar Minimum, now expected in 2019-2020. "Our previous work suggested a ~ 20% increase of dose rates from one solar minimum to the next," says Schwadron. "In fact, we now see that actual dose rates observed by CRaTER in the last 4 years exceed the predictions by ~ 10%, showing that the radiation environment is worsening even more rapidly than we expected." In this plot bright green data points show the recent excess:

The data Schwadron et al have been analyzing come from CRaTER on the LRO spacecraft in orbit around the Moon, which is point-blank exposed to any cosmic radiation the sun allows to pass. Here on Earth, we have two additional lines of defense: the magnetic field and atmosphere of our planet. Both mitigate cosmic rays.

But even on Earth the increase is being felt. Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have been launching space weather balloons to the stratosphere almost weekly since 2015. Sensors onboard those balloons show a 13% increase in radiation (X-rays and gamma-rays) penetrating our planet's atmosphere:

X-rays and gamma-rays detected by these balloons are "secondary cosmic rays," produced by the crash of primary cosmic rays into Earth's upper atmosphere. They trace radiation percolating down toward our planet's surface. The energy range of the sensors, 10 keV to 20 MeV, is similar to that of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

How does this affect us? Cosmic rays penetrate commercial airlines, dosing passengers and flight crews so much that pilots are classified by the International Commission on Radiological Protection as occupational radiation workers. Some research shows that cosmic rays can seed clouds and trigger lightning, potentially altering weather and climate. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias in the general population.

Cosmic rays will intensify even more in the years ahead as the sun plunges toward what may be the deepest Solar Minimum in more than a century. Stay tuned for updates."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Today (this morning, July 9, 2018) [, and ~yesterday July 8,] current stretch spotless days: 13.
The Sun has been relatively quiet, as solar minimum gets even closer ...

 

[davenn]

Today (this morning, July 9, 2018) [, and ~yesterday July 8,] current stretch spotless days: 13.
The Sun has been relatively quiet, as solar minimum gets even closer ...

now home …. the last easily viewable spots were on the 25 June. A couple of spots were almost still visible from the active region on the 26th June, but had diminished greatly. There were a few other isolated spots visible.

25th

26th

The spotted active region on the 25th is the same region as the as the right hand part of the area labelled "couple of spots"
Those other quite small spots across the disk that I have labelled are confirmed when I use other images of the sun to see active regions,
eg, magnetograms and extreme UV imagesDave

 

[davenn]

a really good article is here

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

 

[Stavros Kiri]

the last easily viewable spots were on the 25 June. A couple of spots were almost still visible from the active region on the 26th June, but had diminished greatly. There were a few other isolated spots visible.

Could it be a ±1day error in taking into account/(accounting for) the near limb/ complete disappearance era? I am not sure.

The spotted active region on the 25th is the same region as the as the right hand part of the area labelled "couple of spots"
Those other quite small spots across the disk that I have labelled are confirmed when I use other images of the sun to see active regions,
eg, magnetograms and extreme UV images

Very interesting. At some point perhaps I would like to learn more about those techniques.
The article is good too!

Thanks Dave

 

[davenn]

This new active region that has rotated into view over the last couple of days remains spotless
even tho it looks quite significant in the magnetogram

Visible light

Magnetogram

Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

...
...

Today March 22, 2019

Huge AR2736 ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Sep. 25, 2019
https://spaceweather.com
A SUMMER WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: The sun is undergoing a remarkable period of spotlessness. During northern summer 2019, the face of the sun was blank (no sunspots) more than 89% of the time. This marks it as one of the deepest Solar Minima in a century. Interestingly, the summer of 2019 also brought a sign that Solar Minimum is coming to an end. Visit Spaceweather.com for the full story.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

TWO SOLAR CYCLES ARE ACTIVE AT ONCE: You don't see this every day. There are two sunspots on the sun today, and each one comes from a different 11-year solar cycle. Two solar cycles are active at once. What does it mean? Check out today's edition of Spaceweather.com.