Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

July 3rd: Radio blackout going on now (or mainly earlier today) ... Due to significant solar flare from active sunspot region AR2835 ... [In case it could get worse ... watch out for internet too, perhaps, but HOPEFULLY [and most likely] NOT (at this time/point) [unless there will be an X-class flare etc. ...] ... ...]:

Significant M2-class Solar Flare (at 0717 UT) from Active Sunspot Region AR2835 and [AM (MW & SW)] radio blackout ... still going on, just a couple of hours ago ... ...

Time for observational solar astronomy ... (CAUTION: USE FILTERS or Eclipse Solar Glasses to watch etc. ...) + the spot region AR2835 is still huge, even seen with unaided eye (i.e. no magnification necessary), WITH FILTERS of course! ...

{The huge by now sunspot AR2835 is visible even without magnification! ... BUT of course you need protective filter to see it (CAUTION!), e.g. can use solar eclipse glasses etc. ...
But/Also, IN ANY CASE, do not observe for long the domain, even with good filters ... (with or without magnification ...).}

[+
See classification of X-ray Solar Flares: https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html

#solar #spaceweather #sun #solarnews #news ]

P.S. I assume the M2 flare could trigger aurora activity too ... (We'll see)

 

[Astronuc]

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected. Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

I was wondering about the current cycle. My wife had been asking me about radio interference the last several weeks, which I also noticed, and I assumed it was related to solar activity and the ionosphere, and related to the auroral activity.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot
https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle
https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210702.html

AR2835 (captured in a sharp telescopic close-up from July 1 and published on APOD) spans about 150,000 kilometers or over ten Earth diameters. On June 25, AR2835 and AR2836 were just starting to come around to the Earth facing side of the sun.

https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/06/sun-sunspot-ar2835

Since then, AR2835 has grown from three (June 25) to four (June 28) to 12 (June 29) to 16 (June 30) .
Images were taken using the Slooh.com Canary Five solar telescope.

Earlier in May - https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/05/ar2822-and-ar2823

 

[sophiecentaur]

CAUTION: USE FILTERS or Eclipse Solar Glasses to watch etc. ..

If you have somewhere indoors with a long 'throw' between a window and a wall, a pinhole camera can give you a fair sized projected image or, even better, use half a pair or binoculars and (again indoors) you can project a very watchable image on a white sheet of paper (or grey, if the image is too bright for comfort). It's much easier looking down on an image than directly upwards. Experiment!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Will we see more or even worse temporary radio blackouts and/or auroras etc. due to flares the next hours or days?

We might, if we get X-class flares (e.g. X9 would probably do it! ...) ... . However, this active sunspot region (AR2835) may not do it (for now - although you never know) - it's also getting off limb ≥the day after tomorrow, besides winding down now and getting smaller ... .

But there was a new one started out/born overnight (or last night - depending on the region of observance & local time) ..., and that one flared right away!, right after its appearrence, with a C7 fairly strong flare [but still smaller than the M-class of flares though (e.g. the other M2 flare)] which also caused local temporary radio blackouts in some regions (about 8min+ after its origin on the Sun) ... . [Class C flares (weaker than M and that weaker than X ... - see link in the previous post) are in the limit in causing such radio blackouts (smaller or bigger) [and/or auroras/magnetic storms etc. ...] ... ... . M & X class flares are stronger and more likely (to cause such [effects]) and eligible in that respect ... etc. ... ].

Now if that new active spot region fortifies [properly] (we'll see) it might be more "promising" to be eligible to give rise to [M or even] X flares ... (and more Radio Blackouts etc., as well as Auroras etc. ...). We'll see ...
[More details later ... ]

#solar #spaceweather #sun #solarnews #news P.S. (in the process of posting the above ...):

And actually an X1 flare [from a new group] just occurred (a couple of hours ago) from that new spot group/region (born in the early July 3rd am hours) ... Causing NEW & bigger radio blackouts and perhaps bringing auroras too etc. ...
Details later ...
& that was the first X-flare in 4 years (since the "Monster X9 flare of Sept 2017" ...) ! ...
So it turns out I was almost right. That new spot region is indeed in fact more "promising" ... ...

#critical #possiblethreats

 

[Stavros Kiri]

If you have somewhere indoors with a long 'throw' between a window and a wall, a pinhole camera can give you a fair sized projected image or, even better, use half a pair or binoculars and (again indoors) you can project a very watchable image on a white sheet of paper (or grey, if the image is too bright for comfort). It's much easier looking down on an image than directly upwards. Experiment!

That would reduce significantly the radiation too etc. ... (It's actually a lot safer perhaps, if you do it right and be careful ...)
Great ideas ... Thanks!
[Will give it a try perhaps tomorrow - it will be an intersting weekend - and CMEs (minor) arriving on July 3rd & 4th ... – + more flares, radio blackouts perhaps etc. – we'll see)]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I was wondering about the current cycle. My wife had been asking me about radio interference the last several weeks, which I also noticed, and I assumed it was related to solar activity and the ionosphere, and related to the auroral activity.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot
https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle
https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210702.html

AR2835 (captured in a sharp telescopic close-up from July 1 and published on APOD) spans about 150,000 kilometers or over ten Earth diameters. On June 25, AR2835 and AR2836 were just starting to come around to the Earth facing side of the sun.

https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/06/sun-sunspot-ar2835

Since then, AR2835 has grown from three (June 25) to four (June 28) to 12 (June 29) to 16 (June 30) .
Images were taken using the Slooh.com Canary Five solar telescope.

Earlier in May - https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/05/ar2822-and-ar2823

Thanks @Astronuc ! Great input! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Cf. Previous post(s) ...]
#solar #spaceweather #sun #solarnews #news

Actually an X1 new Solar Flare [from a new group] DID IN FACT just occur (a few of hours ago - at 1429 UT) from that new spot group/region (born in the early July 3rd am hours [going to be named after AR2838 ...]) ... Causing NEW & bigger radio blackouts and perhaps bringing auroras too etc. ...
Details later ...
& that was the first X-flare in 4 years (since the "Monster X9 flare of Sept 2017" ...) ! ...
So it turns out I was almost right. That new spot region is indeed in fact more "promising" ... ... . It might even bring stronger X-class flares (+ radio bursts and auroras/magnetic storms etc.) ... ... (who knows – watch this space! ...) [& CAUTION is advised ...]

Supplement:
1)
" X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: X1 1429 UT Jul03
24-hr: X1 1429 UT Jul03
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1815 UT

Daily Sun: 03 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "2) "
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Today's explosion registered X1.5 on the Richter Scale of Solar Flares​

A pulse of X-rays briefly ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean: blackout map. Mariners, aviators, and amateur radio operators may have noticed unusual propagation effects below 30 MHz just after 1429 UT

The source of this flare is an un-numbered sunspot now growing near the sun's northwestern limb. Yesterday it did not even exist, highlighting the unpredictability of solar activity. More flares may be in the offing, so stay tuned."

3) However, notice that the new region is already near the limb! ... Too bad (or lucky too good [?] ...) it will go on the other side soon ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

The Sun now (July 5, 2021, 0404 UT)

Sunspot regions​

The previously newborn AR2838 [group that did the X1.5 flare on July 3rd] is gone behind limb now (on the far side, returning in ~ 2 weaks, if still active ...).

Now there's another new group, AR2839, developing rapidly! ... .

AR2835 M-flared again yesterday on July 4th, with an M1.5 flare (0509 UT). Also there was a B5 at 2127 UT, as well as a C1 at 1813 UT ... (July 4th). Getting close to Limb too ...

Supplement: here's a last view of AR2838 [yesterday (before it was gone off limb), July 4th, early am hours, or early UT hours] (the region that did the X1.5 flare on July 3rd ...):

Daily Sun: 04 Jul 21

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"

Solar wind speed: 339.2 km/sec density: 7.9 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0615 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B5 0511 UT Jul05 24-hr: C1 1813 UT Jul04 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0620 UT Daily Sun: 05 Jul 21 Expand: labels | no labels New sunspot AR2839 is growing rapidly. Credit: SDO/HMI

"Earlier overnight, the proton density (of solar wind) was 12.5 ... [e.g. at some point within arrival of a CME ..., as expected.]

As you see again, new promising group perhaps [AR2839] ...

There was also another [recent] B5 this morning [July 5th - just less than 2 hours ago] (see above) from the old activity region ...

Stay tuned ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Just recently, C1 at 1843 UT, July 5th ... (24 hr max flare, at this point)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

(July 6)
1)
"

Solar wind
speed: 340.0 km/sec
density: 11.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0620 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 0035 UT Jul06
24-hr: C1 1843 UT Jul05
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0625 UT

Daily Sun: 06 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2835 is cracking up. It is now split down the middle, signaling a breakup. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

2)
"FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: On July 3rd, sunspot AR2838 unleashed the first X-flare of Solar Cycle 25. Hours later, the sunspot disappeared--but it hasn't stopped flaring. Two CMEs just flew away from the farside of the sun where AR2838 is now located (stay tuned for movies). If it holds together long enough, the sunspot will return to the Earthside in less than 2 weeks."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I accidentally lost/erased [about an hour ago] a (kind of long) space weather almanac-related post for today July 7, 2021, with update "minute-to-minute" (kind of) interesting solar behavior for today activity ... etc.

While I'm re-writting, I'm posting another relevant [short] one first [that would originally follow] for 1) not missing the essense, at least 2) for preparing at least on time perhaps (almost, ±, ~ ...) ... 3) and mainly (for this post) to serve also as a time reference (almost/approximately) and for the lost next one too (that was supposed to be here instead first ...) ... :

" Summer (in Northern Hemisphere) is currently hot (and expected ..., perhaps more ... etc.) ... ... New Solar cycle (#25) [for some time now, and started out strong, perhaps relatively overperforming] (sunspots, flares etc.) etc. is affecting ... etc.
(Strong Solar Wind now these days, and especially today [July 7, 2021], really high proton density [max ~15.4, at ~1700 UT] etc. ... ...) [and starting ~July 9 new phenomenon & expected high solar wind too, as well as expected auroras etc. ... Coming up ...]

#solar #sun #spaceweather #weather #forecasts "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Interesting days (and the days ahead)July 7:

1) Increased significantly Solar Wind for extended hours (several hours now) [with maximum proton density [reached] 13.8 (just a few minutes ago [now, while setting up this post, the time is ~1430 UT (± ...) ... (and just mentioning a local min now ~11.6 or 11.4 ...)]) (and a local maximum earlier today [13.4] - see below) ... – see ahead], "oscilating" up and down (almost in a wave form) all this time now, between max and min values (but still the minima being significantly high too ... etc.), and with several LOCAL maxima and minima [in between, etc.] ... ... (see ahead):a)

"

​ Solar wind speed: 322.2 km/sec density: 13.4 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1210 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B5 1134 UT Jul07 24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 1215 UT Daily Sun: 07 Jul 21 Expand: labels | no labels Sunspot AR2835 on the sun's western limb where it is magnetically connected to Earth through the Parker spiral. Credit: SDO/HMI

"b)"

Solar wind

speed: 331.0 km/sec
density: 13.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1405 UT

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: B5 1134 UT Jul07

24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06

explanation | more data

Updated: Today at: 1410 UT
...
...
[& sunspot AR2835 on the sun's western limb where it is magnetically connected to Earth through the Parker spiral. Credit: SDO/HMI]

"c) [and in between the two [highest] maxima(/values) ... (as an example of [the highest] local max ...): ]"
Solar wind

speed: 324.1 km/sec
density: 12.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1225

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: B5 1134 UT Jul07

24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06

explanation | more data

Updated: Today at: 1230 UT

"d) [and my first initial observation (starting point - perhaps local max too) earlier today ... :]"
Solar wind

speed: 325.1 km/sec
density: 12.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1105 UT

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: B2 0716 UT Jul07

24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06

explanation | more data

Updated: Today at: 1110 UT

[& Sunspot AR2835 on the sun's western limb where it is magnetically connected to Earth through the Parker spiral. Credit: SDO/HMI]
"e) Other local maxima [in between values] (besides the 13.4 & 13.8 above ...) : 12, another 12.8, 11.9 (x2 [?]), 12.4, 11.8 ...

And local minima: 11.4, 11.6, ... ~11 (or less ... – couldn't tell accurately) and I think even ~10 ... (at some point in between, as the lowest min perhaps of the "oscilation" ... [during this (observation) time [interval] ...]) [I do certainly recall a 10.8 and 10.9 ... ].f) + more recent high max too (13.8, again! ...) [or it may even have been higher (e.g. ~13.9 or even ~14 ... ...)] :

"
Solar wind
speed: 327.6 km/sec
density: 13.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1510 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1134 UT Jul07
24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1515 UT
"g) + New ~significant flare (B7) ... :

"
Solar wind

speed: 323.7 km/sec
density: 12.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1620 UT

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: B7 1551 UT Jul07

24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06

explanation | more data

Updated: Today at: 1625 UT
"
2)
"CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of geomagnetic unrest onJuly 9th when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing CME-like density gradients that can spark auroras."3) Is today's intetesting behavior the result of a CME, or could it be a premature version/behavior or beginning/starting point (etc.) of the above phenomenon expected ~July 9th etc. ? ... [Any ideas, thoughts, questions ? ...]
Even tonight it may be a good oportunity for auroras etc., and in the days ahead (see above) etc. ...4) The major spot groups are gone now [from view] ... (just two in view for now, and relatively quiet ...).
The Sun overall, relatively quiet too (as far as flares etc.), despite the overall still intersting behavior today ... etc. :

Sunspot regions​

Today's Sun​

[Now (fairly recently, still today) – the other groups are gone – cf. above ... etc. .]

5) Another EVEN HIGHER maximum (local and 'localy absolute' [for today etc.] ... etc.) on proton density, while still originally writting this post (before accidental deletion and re-make ...) ... : ... "really high proton density [max ~15.4, at ~1700 UT] etc. ... ..."
Comments? Ideas?

[Post finally restored 2233UT ... √]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Still July 7] Solar Wind (proton density) increased again significantly high (cf. previous post) just now (recently, ~1/2 ago) ... :

"
Solar wind
speed: 344.7 km/sec
density: 15.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2039 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B7 1551 UT Jul07
24-hr: C1 2150 UT Jul06
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2045 UT
"

And then [finally] dropped down at 8.4 just now, at 2110 UT ... (Seems it's winding down now ...).

 

[jim mcnamara]

Check out the Carrington Event of 1859--
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/carrington-event-warning/

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Check out the Carrington Event of 1859--
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/carrington-event-warning/

Regarding that ("
Just and aside - written history documents a monster X class flare in 1859. The Coronal Mass Ejection was aimed right at Earth. It caused fires in telegraph stations in the northern hemisphere, for example. Called the Carrington Event.

It would cripple modern technology unless the grid, satellites, phones, and internet communications systems are able to be protected and powered off.
") Etc.Was that a mini-nova? (If I recall correctly, the terminology/ that term applies in this case, I think - will get back to that later ...)

A similar (at least "symptom-wise" etc.) event happened on May of 1921 [(the) most recent significantly "disasterous" one ...] [May 15 – 100 years ago ...]. See post #82 of this thread ...
https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...ace-weather-update-thread.923468/post-6492918

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Regarding the somewhat long post #113 above:
The post has parts 1) [a), b), ..., g)], 2), ... 5). Pay particular attention on part #2) announcing a significant solar [wind] phenomenon coming up ~July 9 ... (causing perhaps EXTRA magnetic disturbances, auroras, even radio blackouts, may be, etc. – we'll – stay tuned! ...). Interesting days [coming up] ahead! (even [may] have started/happening already ...) ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Thursday July 8 [2021]

The solar wind was relatively stable high overnight around on the 12+ mark for proton density and relatively high speeds. Before that, and in between with the previous posts (earlier above), it had returned to normal levels for a few hours.
Now, after the earlier overnight high and peak, it winded back down again (~low to normal ...) ... :

"

​

Solar wind speed: 327.1 km/sec density: 5.9 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0654 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B2 0416 UT Jul08 24-hr: B7 1551 UT Jul07 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0700 UT Daily Sun: 08 Jul 21 Expand: labels | no labels These sunspots are magnetically simple and pose little threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

"

That was a few minutes ago. And just before posting (this post) it even went down to 5.5 ... (min) [for now ...].

P.S. Now 7:18 UT ..., density at low 4.2 [on ~0710 UT] ... ... ! (and just started rising, 4.4 ... [07:15 UT], and subsequenly further higher ..., but still small or normal ...)
[Thus 4.2 was an overall local min so far ...]

P.S.' : went up to 7.9 ... and just now [0736 UT] down to EVEN LOWER 4.0 ... ! [This latest Posting/Editing started at 0740 UT] ...
And, finaly, now before closing this editing, 3.8 (at 0740 UT), seen at 0745 UT ... Etc.

P.S.'' : continued tracking ... (to find the [overall] local min): 3.2 (at 0745 UT) and 4.0 (at 0750) and rising back up again ...
Thus, min = 3.2 (for now).

Closing editting 0800 UT, with last seen a 3.6 (at 0754) and a 3.4 (at 0800 UT) ... Etc.
Now 0805 to 0808 UT.

It seems the oscillation is on the minimum [side] today ... (Quiet Solar Wind & Sun ...) ...

P.S.''' : 4.2 (at 0805) ..., and 3.8 (at 0810) ... Etc.
Thus: 3.4 above was also a local min, but the global overall min seen so far is/was the 3.2 earlier (see above) ... [for now ...].
Ending post editting at 0830 UT ... (last values seen 3.3 [x2] at 0815 and 0819 UT, 2.8 at 0825 UT ... AND 2.6 at 0830 UT, NEW LOWEST MIN so far, perhaps the overall ...).

End of Live Watch at 0840 (with 2.7 seen at 0835) ... .
[So 2.6 was in fact the min of the watch ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Extra Notes:

1) There was an even lower min of 1.8 protons/cm³ and a local max of 11.7 ... ...

2) The sunspot group AR2840 is relatively new (just appeared yesterday [or better ~ between the 6th and 7th ... (of July [2021])]).

Also AR2839 (still also ~ new), as seen before, appeared bet. the 4th & 5th ...

They both have been relatively quiet ...

3) New group seems to be forming (perhaps - we'll see – OR IS IT the old faded AR2837?! ...) almost between the two and kind of near the west Limb: (July 8)

Sunspot regions​

Today's Sun​

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 9

A) Low Solar Wind (at low normal levels) today so far, despite the announcement for geomagnetic unrest for July 9 (due to phenomenon (*) described briefly on July 7). It could be that that peculiar solar wind was what we experienced the last 2 days (prematurely? ... !?) [as two different wind oscillations (of an almost wave pattern form), one in the maxima domain (July 7) and one in the minima domain (yesterday July 8) ... – see posts] ... ... We'll see how the day unfolds.

(*) See post #113 (part 2) ) and the link following in the short description here: what is a "co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ... : CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing CME-like density gradients that can spark auroras."B)
A CME happened the day before yesterday (July 7 – from equatorial decaying group AR2837) and left the Sun, most part of it though heading originally away from Earth. However a Solar Wind from that Coronal Hole/Ejection will probably hit us in a few days:

"SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A high-speed stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. ETA: July 11-12. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. Minor geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible when the solar wind arrives."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Unexpected C-class flares:

A.
Solar wind
speed: 335.5 km/sec
density: 7.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0745 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0747 UT Jul09
24-hr: C1 0746 UT Jul09
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0750 UT

B.

​

Solar wind speed: 329.4 km/sec density: 6.6 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0819 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: C6 0755 UT Jul09 24-hr: C6 0755 UT Jul09 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0825 UT

Still low (relatively stable) solar wind density (but fast enough).

Possibly limited radio blackouts a few minutes ago ...

P.S. I did indeed observe/detect some interference on frequences below 30Mz (perhaps due to magnetic disturbance-interference due to the recent C6 flare ...) ...Latest edit (~1415 UT): Another Major C-flare, C7 at 1050 UT ... and new temporary magnetic interference ...

Other than that, same conditions (roughly) for the solar wind ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

You expect the one ... the other happens! ... (Typical with this kind of Sun/solar cycle, I think ...):

Totally off the predictions for the solar wind (for today July 9) [still calm and normal], (it probably came earlier) as observed and explained earlier too ... (see previous posts etc.).BUT:

"
TWO SOLAR FLARES, TWO RADIO BLACKOUTS: Departing sunspot AR2840 erupted twice on July 9th, producing a pair of almost-M-class solar flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the two ultraviolet flashes:

Pulses of X-radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere. The result: two minor radio blackouts, one over Asia and another over Europe. Mariners, aviators, and ham radio operators may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below ~15 MHz.
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Totally off the predictions for the solar wind (for today July 9) [still calm and normal], (it probably came earlier) as observed and explained earlier too ... (see previous posts etc.).

Or unless it was just late ... (?)
Solar wind increase overnight (9th to 10th of July) ...:

​

Solar wind speed: 329.4 km/sec density: 13.1 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0244 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B2 0206 UT Jul10 24-hr: C7 1050 UT Jul09 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0250 UT Daily Sun: 09 Jul 21

13.1 was a local max (a few minutes ago)

[It seems something is arriving/has arrived ...]

And the Sun just now:

Sunspot regions​

AR2840 is gone over limb; new group arose (AR2841) ...P.S. Similar oscillation [of Solar Wind Proton density] (on the maxima side) is happening now like on July 7 ...

P.S.' (Latest edit): and a new max 15.9 protons/cm³ just now (0450 UT) [a few minutes ago].
{And 14.8 ... at 0456 UT (and dropping) [while 15.6 earlier at 0445 UT, just before the reported overall [and local] high maximum of 15.9 ...]}
{Closing now at ~0510+ UT, with a local min value of 13.1 ... measured at 0505 UT ..., and subsequently rising again ...}

Seems like almost carbon copy behaviour of July 7 solar wind activity (and the speed too ...) ...

End of Live Watch (for now) [at 0523 UT] (with last value of 15.3 ... seen just 3min ago ...)
[End extra last edit, 14.8 ... at 0525 UT ...] (so another local max of 15.3 ... above)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Now] The density has dropped significantly (to a local [or overall - for the time of observation] minimum 4.2 ...) [and rising back up at this point (10:00 UT, today July 10)], while at the same time the speed of the solar wind has increased significantly (to a local or possibly overall maximum 392.1 Km/sec) [0950 UT] ... :

"

​

Solar wind speed: 392.1 km/sec density: 4.2 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0950 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B1 0356 UT Jul10 24-hr: C7 1050 UT Jul09 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0955 UT Daily Sun: 10 Jul 21 Expand: labels | no labels New sunspot AR2841 is growing and may soon pose a threat for minor flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

"

[& After more observations (of maxima and minima cycles etc. - and density versus speed ...): ] Clearly, there definitely seems to be an inverse correlation between decreasing density and increasing speed ... so it's actually obvious that now (today July 10) is/was the actual time/arrival for/of the announced earlier ([cf.] previous days) CIR ... . And in fact it did cause geomagnetic unrest ..., and still going on. Auroras may be possible too. We'll see the reports later ...P.S. (a bit later): there was some magnetic interference on AM bands (i.e. MW, SW, LW), and even now below ~12MHz (±) ... (with low density/high speed solar wind now) [the cut-off for interference was higher earlier (with higher densities wind), I assume more than 15MHz, possibly even up to 30MHz ... (but I missed looking back then)].

Still "low density – high speed" solar wind, going on now (1105 UT) ...[oscillating (both density and speed) up & down (in the minima and maxima domain respectively [with almost inverse correlation (density vs speed)]) all this time (between local boundary values ... (max, min) vs (min, max) and then (min, max) vs (max, min) ... [i.e. ~oscillation, for (density, speed) (or {density, speed}) ~ inversly ... (etc.)] ) ... ] [due to the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) that finally arrived (overnight or this morning – see earlier posts behaviour etc. – possibly roughly perhaps around 0240 UT and manifesting with a shift around ~0950 UT ... etc.) today July 10 2021 ...]
More live data:

"
Solar wind
speed: 371.3 km/sec
density: 5.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1111 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1026 UT Jul10
24-hr: C4 1725 UT Jul09
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1115 UT
"

AND (Latest, before closing live watch):

"
Solar wind
speed: 377.3 km/sec
density: 4.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1141 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1026 UT Jul10
24-hr: C4 1725 UT Jul09
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1145 UT
"

(Still consistent with the above model of behaviour ...)
End of Live Watch at 11:57 UT (with still a high speed 382 and a density of 6 ...).

P.S.': still further EXTRA look finds at least three or more cases of data (besides the one above) with the inverse correlation to be breaking down, indicating a shift in the behaviour. Now increasing density increases speed too (say ~ proportional, or at least definitaly not inversly ... [let's just say 'directly increasing' ...]). Densities still relatively low (on the low to perhaps rising side) and STILL high speeds of solar wind ... . [Thus] This may just be another shift or phase of the [CIR] phenomenon, or just a different part/domain of its spatial changing wave-like form Distribution ... (etc.).

"
Solar wind
speed: 372.1 km/sec
density: 7.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1224 UT
"

P.S.'': and extra, just now, at least three or more sets of data support another shift back to the inverse correlation behaviour as before (just different parts/phases/domains again of the CIR wave distribution perhaps ...) ... and the phenomenon still going on ...
Latest values (before closing):

"
Solar wind
speed: 373.9 km/sec
density: 5.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1240 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1223 UT Jul10
24-hr: C4 1725 UT Jul09
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1245 UT
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

And just verified myself a radio blackout on SW bands below 15MHz (with a totally wiped out MW band ! ... [not even local stations ...]), in my location at least [~1310 UT ± ...], due to these high speed solar winds of different structures and speeds (CIR) and alternating regions (causing geomagnetic unrest and interference ...) ...

Later look [1340 UT] (update) [edit]:
SW bands fully just recoverd a few minutes ago and the upper bound of interference cut off is now contineously moving to lower frequencies (being at ~1.4 MHz [i.e. 1400 KHz, in the MW band ...] right now and heading lower ...) (in my location) ...

At the same time, still ~low density high speed solar wind (with back to a direct increasing correlation right now on these two variables-parameters ...) [in this region/domain of the CIR] ...

And e.g. 1500UT:
"
Solar wind
speed: 369.9 km/sec
density: 8.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1500 UT
"
And density rising (with speed slowly rising too, for now ...) ...
e.g. : "
speed: 370.0 km/sec
density: 8.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1505 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1223 UT Jul10
24-hr: C4 1725 UT Jul09
"
And

"
speed: 371.3 km/sec
density: 8.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1511 UT
"

And shift (!?) ...:
"
speed: 378.6 km/sec
density: 7.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1515 UT
"

End of Live Watch 1530 UT
[More magnetic interference (/radio blackouts) and perhaps auroras are possible ahead today/tonight (etc). ]
[And CME perhaps arriving tomorrow on the 11th ... Intetesting solar times ...]

P.S. MW band is almost completely subject to interference again, and SW bands up to about ~8MHz at this point (1545 UT) ...
Latest data:
"
speed: 383.7 km/sec
density: 9.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1530 UT
"
(And just before that ~ 8.9 and 391 ...)

And
"
speed: 387.4 km/sec
density: 9.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1545 UT
"
And a crucial last one:
"
speed: 392.5 km/sec
density: 13.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1550 UT
"
Seems it's now moving back to high densities ..., AND speeds this time ... ...
And
"
speed: 394.9 km/sec
density: 11.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1601 UT
"
Maximum seen (by me at least) speed for today ... (remaining up in the higher densities region, for now)
Possibly good opportunity for auroras tonight and more radio interference perhaps ahead on the way ...

End of live watch (for now)

P.S.' : really strong radio blackout just now below ~30MHz and geomagnetic storm, due to even further speed increase a few minutes ago:

"
Solar wind
speed: 395.9 km/sec
density: 12.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1610 UT
"
Dropped a bit
"
Solar wind
speed: 383.2 km/sec
density: 15.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1615 UT
"
And then back up even higher speed etc. ... (And new strong radio blackout just confirmed in my area etc.) [~ >1300KHz up to 30MHz (part of the lower MW band seems to be a little better, but not completely sure ...)]:
"
speed: 396.4 km/sec
density: 11.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1620 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1223 UT Jul10
24-hr: C4 1725 UT Jul09
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1625 UT
"
Then dropped a bit and then back up EVEN HIGHER, to a new record (for now) of speed (400Km/sec) for today etc. ... ... :
"
speed: 400.0 km/sec
density: 11.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1630 UT
"

[High density and speed cause the worst geomagnetic storms ... ...]

Definitely interesting ... Definitely the CIR that was expected ... etc.
End of live watch 16:42 UT.
(
Solar wind
speed: 401.1 km/sec
density: 11.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1635 UT
)

P.S." : speed kept increasing ...

"
Solar wind
speed: 413.4 km/sec
density: 9.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1659 UT
"

[New record of speed – new blackouts & advisory warnings for communications etc. ! ... ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

High speed solar winds due to the CIR (max so far 413.4 Km/sec) and for now still relatively high proton densities may cause more and worse to severe magnetic interference and geomagnetic unrest effects for today July 10. Auroras are possible and likely too.
[New record of speed for today (the value above, just a few minutes ago, at 1700 UT) – new blackouts & advisory warnings for communications etc. ! ... ...]

And newer max (today's record) speed just now (with the density dropping AGAIN! ...) ! :
"
437.3 km/sec
density: 6.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1720 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1223 UT Jul10
24-hr: C4 1725 UT Jul09
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1725 UT
"

Radio bands were just [confirmed] restored ~ fully (in my area at least) [for now], a few minutes ago due to dropping of the density, while still high speeds ... :
"
speed: 431.7 km/sec
density: 5.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1731 UT
"

P.S. Speed down to 390 (local min of the still oscillating wind) and still relatively low densities of 8 ... now just before 1800 UT.

But just now, before closing:
"
Solar wind
speed: 429.9 km/sec
density: 6.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1800 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1223 UT Jul10
24-hr: B5 2041 UT Jul09
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1805 UT
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

It seems it kind of stabilized for now to silmilar like the last one above levels:

Today, July 11:

"

​

Solar wind speed: 427.1 km/sec density: 5.0 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0050 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: A9 2220 UT Jul10 24-hr: B2 0206 UT Jul10 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0055 UT

"

Local maximum (for the speed):

"

​

​ Solar wind speed: 429.7 km/sec density: 5.2 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0055 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: A9 2220 UT Jul10 24-hr: B2 0206 UT Jul10 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0100 UT

"
And still oscilating up and down between max and min local values for this area (speed just dropped a bit on still low densities) ...

The Sun now:

Sunspot regions​

New Spot Group (Active Region), AR2842, forming, seeming developping fast and strong, may be. We'll see how it goes ...
AR2839 is now completely gone.
About 3½ hours later:

"
Solar wind
speed: 402.4 km/sec
density: 4.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0415 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B7 0132 UT Jul11
24-hr: B7 0132 UT Jul11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0420 UT
"
(B7 kind of significant flare ...)Another ~2½ hrs later:
Densities remained low and the wind speed remained at the above levels and slowly dropping for some time now, until it made a major drop right now ... (from ~396 to ~366) :

"
Solar wind
speed: 366.7 km/sec
density: 6.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0640 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B7 0132 UT Jul11
24-hr: B7 0132 UT Jul11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0645 UT
"

And more oscillation up a local max (on previous almost levels and/or less, roughly) and then it just dropped again (from ~391 to ~388 etc.) ... before closing

"
Solar wind
speed: 391.0 km/sec
density: 5.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0644 UT
"

Then oscillated back up on the next set of data:
"
Solar wind
speed: 395.7 km/sec
density: 5.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0656 UT
"

And right after just dropping again before the end of this live watch, with the density showing a rising tendency just now ... :
"
Solar wind
speed: 371.2 km/sec
density: 7.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0700 UT
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Here are some first reports for yesterday's peculiar interesting activity (and, although they were not officially in the forecast [but originally for July 9th, that failed], these and more presented effects (auroras and radio blackouts etc.) WERE actually in our own forecast here (expected) for yesterday (and the days before) ... see all previous posts etc. ... – & stay tuned) :

"
AURORA SURPRISE: There were no auroras in the forecast yesterday, July 10th. MaryBeth Kiczenski saw them anyway. She was on a boat just off Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula when the sky turned red:

"Some friends and I were out there to shoot the stars with that waterfall," explains Kiczenski. "I was so excited and thrilled when the auroras appeared. They were not easy to see with the naked eye, but clear as day on the back of the camera."

What happened? Unexpectedly, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field, not for long, only ~30 minutes. The timing was perfect for Kiczenski's trip to the falls. Solar wind rushed through the gap to fuel the display.
"B) And today (July 11), later on, new incoming solar wind is coming up, from an equatorial CME already announced a few days ago ... (that should be interesting too – watch this space ...). [However, the original expectation was for July 11 to 12 ... (see post #120 part B) ...).
We'll see how it goes! ...]

This time, this one is in the official forecasts too (e.g. see spaceweather.com):
"THE SOLAR WIND IS COMING: Later today, a high-speed stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. Flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere, wind speeds could top 500 km/s. Full-fledged geomagnetic storms are unlikely, but lesser geomagnetic unrest could spark high latitude auroras. "C) The "crack in the magnetic field" mentioned in the earlier quote in A) above does not by itself explain as to why it all happened in the first place! ...

Based on our studying live the phenomenon from early times (yesterday and the days before etc.) we, from this point of view, know that it was due to the CIR mainly and the observed high speed winds, combined with high proton densities, in certain domains of the CIR, e.g. where these plasma protons pile up caught between high and low speed currents of the solar wind ... (and we did in fact observe these low to high density alterations of the overall oscillating wind in fluctuations and in between/& versus high and low speeds of the solar wind ... (obseved√ – see [almost] 5' to 5' min live watch of the solar wind the last few days ... etc.) ...).

That's what (with high enough probability) caused the "crack ..." ... and the overall geomagnetic unrest yesterday (radio blackouts, auroras etc.), though a not fully categorised geomagnetic extensive storm perhaps ...D) For a review of the above (and the predictions etc.) (besides all previous days posts etc.) see first particularly posts #112, 113 [especially part 2)] , 117, 120, 123, 126 ... [and regarding the CIR(s) too ...]
[Reminder: (e.g. see also posts #120, 113(part 2)) ) ... " what is a "co-rotating interaction region(CIR) ... : CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing CME-like density gradients that can spark auroras." "]
(And the same link [as above] explicitly [in full]: http://www.physics.usyd.edu.au/~cairns/teaching/lecture11/node4.html )

Also, finaly, for part B) of this post cf. also post #120 part B) (as already said above).

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 11 (more)

3 more sets of recent data (a few minutes ago), [showing a relatively stable behaviour, for now (with minor oscillations (for speed and density ...) ...) ] ... :

1)
"
Solar wind
speed: 364.3 km/sec
density: 7.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0946 UT
"

2)
"
Solar wind
speed: 364.1 km/sec
density: 8.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1025 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A9 0454 UT Jul11
24-hr: B7 0132 UT Jul11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1030 UT

Daily Sun: 11 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2841 is crackling with B-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

3)
"
Solar wind
speed: 362.1 km/sec
density: 8.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1030 UT
"[And the speeds dropped further after that, with density slightly changing (varying) ... ...]

It seems that overall speeds are dropping though (besides minor oscillations up and down) while densities remain for now to relatively low to normal levels (with minor up and down oscillations too and overall a slight increasing tedency [with an almost inverse perhaps correlation to speed temporarilly at this point (earlier the correlation was direct increasing at some point ... etc. ...) ...].Supplement:
And a bit later on (as roughly predicted above – ~ same behaviour – speed dropped further):

4)

"
Solar wind
speed: 345.5 km/sec
density: 8.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1110 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 1050 UT Jul11
24-hr: B7 0132 UT Jul11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1115 UT
"Latest look: over 3 hours later (1430 UT) almost same picture as the latest values above and relatively stable values remaining in that order/domain ... (but/and a bit earlier speed went as low as ~336 ... etc.), BUT/Thus/and it seems that gradually speeds are overall [Still] DROPPING [further], while density stays almost in the same order etc. ... ... (possibly indicating final subsiding/fading away/receding of the CIR etc. ...) returning gradually and slowly back to normal ...

Before closing this latest look (again a locally (local in time) or even perhaps regionally overall so far new(?) minimum for speed ...):
"
Solar wind
speed: 335.0 km/sec
density: 8.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1435 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 1050 UT Jul11
24-hr: B7 0132 UT Jul11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1440 UT
"

P.S. And a set of {332.4 vs 10.1 ...} (at 1500 UT) [new local speed min, with rising a bit density ...] before final close of this almost live watch, that justifies further the demonstrated picture and agrees with what was said above in our first conclusion about the [gradual and almost there] ending perhaps of the CIR ...
[It should all very soon be back to normal (density and speed etc. ...) ... hopefully before the NEW CME arrives today, tonight or tomorrow etc. ... – it should be interesting to watch! ... ...]

P.S.' : also saw
speed: 328.5 km/sec
density: 10.3 protons/cm3
(observed at 1521 UT) before closing at 1530 UT ... (New local min and overall drop for speed ...) [almost back to normal ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Back to low normal speeds and regular ave densities:

"

​

Solar wind speed: 315.3 km/sec density: 9.4 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1909 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: A6 1752 UT Jul11 24-hr: B7 0132 UT Jul11 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 1915 UT

"
No CME arrival yet (perhaps will come overnight or tomorrow July 12) ...

Note: and the solar wind almost remarkably extremely stable at those regular values (sp. , dens.) for some time now ...
[& one thing is for sure: we can enjoy radio now (even MW or low SW [frequency-wise] ... that very rarely are so clear). The Ionosphere is peffectly reflecting and transmitting far away radio stations and signals so good right now! ... (observed and confirmed! √... )]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Increased proton density [overnight, so far] (even at the 13. ... mark [max] range) at about ~2200 UT ± ... [or a bit less at that point], with increasing static and loss of "perfect clarity" of signal on MW bands observed around 2220 UT (still July 11, UT) [or 01:20 = 1:20am July 12, local time (DST) ...] in my location ..., with speeds still maintaining low values (or overall dropped) (min seen even at 301.6 Km/sec [with a density 13.0 protons/cm³] at 2345 UT) ... ...

July 12
(A few minutes ago):

A.
" Solar wind
speed: 311.2 km/sec
density: 13.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0335 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A6 0255 UT Jul12
24-hr: B3 1050 UT Jul11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0340 UT "

(That was a local max for density, so far ...)B. No significant changes in spot groups (just AR2842 growing a bit more ...):

Sunspot regions​

C. A bit later watch demonstrated further increase in the density (16.3 ... ...) [with speeds practically in the same order of magnitude as before (relatively low) (+small drop)], ... indicating now ARRIVAL of the expected CME (or a first slow part) ... , and definitaly after this data, just now:
"Solar wind
speed: 309.9 km/sec
density: 20.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0605 UT "

P.S. Inverse correlation again observed (by analysing consecutive data etc.) between density and speed (as expected for a slow solar wind, such as this one, as a first perhaps indicating part of the CME ...).
Latest data (15min later, after small oscillation [of values] in between):
"Solar wind
speed: 307.7 km/sec
density: 20.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0620 UT"

And (before closing [for now] this live watch):
"Solar wind
speed: 305.1 km/sec
density: 21.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0630 UT "

(Overall Speed still dropping as density still increases [with minor oscilations up & down (in between) ...] ...)

Solar wind (10 min Later – Max density seen so far! ... and rising ...):
" speed: 306.7 km/sec
density: 24.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0640 UT "

(24.8 vs 304.8 ... 5min later, before closing ...)
[+ minor to small radio interference (no black-out) [for AM bands (SW, MW, LW) [for] ~ below 15MHZ (estimated)] going on for some time now, at least in my region, due to these high (increased) density protons of the [slow (part of the)] solar wind due to the incoming CME ... ...] (Latest: 0710 UT with 24.9 vs 302.5 ... & Just now 0715 UT : 26.3 vs 302.2 ...) [New max density and rising ... ...]

P.S.' : AND at 0730 UT a totally wiped out MW band ! [up to at least 2.5+...MHZ ...] ... (SW still relatively ok though - just minor interference up to ~15MHZ (and very small interference to normal above 15MHZ ...)) [confirmed/observed just now in my location]
[Is it because of the arriving CME too (as said before) or it could also be a [new] significant solar flare?! ... We'll see.]

P.S." : checked flaring data (nothing significant) ... and the two ARs actually are very unlikely for flares anyway ...
So the limited MW + ... blackout, as well as the interference on some AM bands (SW, MW, LW) (now only below ~8MHZ, but constantly changing ...) was probably due to the slow high density solar wind (the first part of the incoming CME). It seems that there will be also a fast moving solar wind part (region/ = the main part) later today perhaps, that might even cause a small geomagnetic storm (stay tuned) ... .
It would also be interesting to see ahead if there will also be another CIR (Co-rotating Interaction Region) between (or after the fast wind) as caught high density protons between slow and fast moving parts of the wind ... etc. . We'll see.
(Latest data before closing/New overall max density/further drastic speed drop ... : "speed: 298.4 km/sec
density: 28.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0800 UT ")

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 12 (continues)

About 1½hr+ later significant drop of density ...:

"Solar wind
speed: 299.3 km/sec
density: 16.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0935 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A9 0807 UT Jul12
24-hr: B3 1050 UT Jul11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0940 UT
"
(Radio interference now only observed [localy] to MW band (± ...) – SW works fine at this point ...)

+
"
Daily Sun: 12 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

These sunspots have stable magnetic fields that pose little threat for strong solar flares.. Credit: SDO/HMI "And the spaceweather.com forecast for today:

"WINDY WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS: Today, a high-speed stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. Wind speeds could top 600 km/s, sparking minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storms and high latitude auroras. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere."

And before closing this almost live watch:
"speed: 301.4 km/sec
density: 15.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1020 UT "
[Further density drop ...]Part B (fast wind) :
Speeds just started increasing [again] [with rising tendency (first derivative ...)] (and the radio interference is leaving the MW band (for now – with still previous-like proton densities) and moving up higher to low SW bands for now ...):

"speed: 330.3 km/sec
density: 15.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1235 UT "

(So the "party" begins ... ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Cf. Previous post ... Speeds just started increasing ... (a few minutes ago), and just now, the density too [again rising] (both rising now with a direct increasing shift correlation at this point, while the wind [still] oscillates up and down too [between local max and min values ...] ...) ...

" Solar wind
speed: 330.9 km/sec
density: 19.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1244 UT "

[As a result (of density [and speed] increase), MW bands are also affected again (almost blocked – started being "blacked out" already again too) and the starting spreading interference goes up to ~22-23MHZ, in SW bands, at this point (in my location), right now at 1310 UT ... ...]

A day to watch out for communications ... Auroras definitely likely tonight too (in higher latitudes, at least ...) ...

Latest update:
"Solar wind
speed: 340.9 km/sec
density: 23.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1354 UT "
[Local overall maxima (for now) for both (and rising, both oscillating ...) ...]

+ (later):
Stable for some time with some drops (at ~328 ± etc.), stable there too for a bit of time but/and a kind of significant drop just now (with rising again density ...) to almost earlier levels for both ... :
"speed: 316.0 km/sec
density: 26.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1618 UT "

[It looks like a CIR, (high protons) caught in between the two parts of the slow and fast moving currents ... – we'll see how it goes ...]

"speed: 313.8 km/sec
density: 27.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1623 UT "

(and oscillating up and down with local maxima and minima, as well as to overall boundary values now ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 13 & 14: It seems that the expected (and announced by spaceweather.com) storm (up to G1) [and/caused by expected really high speeds of solar wind (up to 600 Km/sec)] DID NOT come (as of yet) ... and in fact it may not come at all. But there was actually a kind of significant increase in speed yesterday Monday July 12 (with moderate to low densities ...). I saw a max of 363.5 Km/sec (and/with 7.9 protons/cm3) at 0545 UT and e.g. a local max speed and min density 362.6 ..., 6.1 ... at 0745 UT (+ oscillations in between etc.) ... and then speeds starting dropping gradually and oscillating (with small density rising to normal etc.) ... maintaining those new ~normal to a bit increased (but not really high) speeds and with moderately normal to oscillating (and for both) densities etc., almost all day yesterday and even until now (Wed July 14, ~10:00 UT +or -) ... .

Nevertheless, while I was locally traveling yesterday, I did in fact experience and observed temporary Radio blackout for some or most AM bands (MW, SW, LW) [up to ~23-30 MHZ (upper interference/blackout cut-off)] especially at the time of increased and max speeds etc., as well as strong to medium moderate changing (and locally varying) Radio Interference almost all or most day yesteday etc. for the same bands ... ...

Explanation: it seems that the anticipated incoming CME (see older posts) has already passed us lightly yesterday (and the day before) with minor or moderate to medium phenomena, as it even originally wasn't fully Earth directed (most of it was moving away from Earth anyway, as it did (mostly missed us) ...), however presented some effects (see above and previous etc. ...) as well as a small (2nd recent) CIR in between ... (see earlier/previous posts).

However, with latest data before closing, an increase of speed (another) and density comes to progress ... (so may be there's still "hope" ...):

"
Solar wind
speed: 365.4 km/sec
density: 17.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1029 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A2 0821 UT Jul14
24-hr: B2 1835 UT Jul13
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1035 UT

Daily Sun: 14 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2842 is stable and quiet. Solar flares are unlikely today. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

and 365.9 & 19.2 ... 5 min later ...

And max 367.7 & 16.7 at 1046 UT and then dropping with density rising (seen before closing up to 24.6 ... with a speed of 363.8 ... ...) ... and oscillating, with an overall rising tendency for speed ... ...

P.S. Just observed: similar Radio conditions as yesterday now (even as we speak! ...). Warning for communications today etc. . And Auroras possible too e.g. tonight etc. ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Observed an 184 speed (local max) [with densities a bit lower than earlier above] at 1640 UT and it's been almost that high (with fluctuations & oscillating) until now 1000 UT (e.g. 178.8 & 7.8 at 2144 UT and then dropped until now ... densities relatively low now ...). It seems that this is in fact the arriving of the CME today (+ see earlier ... [in fact may have started with the rising we saw yesterday etc. ...]) as strong geomagnetic unrest and strong to very strong Radio interference and radio blackouts has been going on for some time now today and yesterday (on and off) as already said and documented above ... etc.

At some point earlier today, spaceweather.com also posted the following announcement:
"THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: Earth is entering a dense and strongly magnetized stream of solar wind. We've been waiting for this stream to arrive for 3 days. Better late than never? South-pointing fields in the stream are opening a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, setting the stage for possible high-latitude auroras on July 14-15."

+
"
Daily Sun: 14 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2842 is stable and quiet. Solar flares are unlikely today. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

+ new spot group developping AR2843 (from spaceweatherlive.com):

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 15: e.g. 442.0 & 7.8 at 0620 UT [a few minutes ago] (i.e. further rise of speed and new local max, with fluctuations, oscillating ...)

"DENSE SOLAR WIND SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: A dense and strongly magnetized stream of solar wind enveloped Earth for a few hours on July 14th, unsettling our planet's magnetic field (Kp=4). So far, no auroras have been reported, probably because of northern summer sunlight. Quiet conditions are expected to resume on July 15th."

Radio bands still Strongly affected again ... .+ Correction on the previous post:
"Observed an 184 speed (local max) [with densities a bit lower than earlier above] at 1640 UT and it's been almost that high (with fluctuations & oscillating) until now 1000 UT (e.g. 178.8 & 7.8 at 2144 UT and then dropped until now ... densities relatively low now ...)."

The correct text is:
"Observed an 284 speed (local max) [with densities a bit lower than earlier above] at 1640 UT and it's been almost that high (with fluctuations & oscillating) until now 2200 UT (e.g. 278.8 & 7.8 at 2144 UT and then dropped until now ... densities relatively low now ...)."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 15: e.g. (a few minutes ago) 442.0 & 7.8 at 0620 UT ([i.e.] further rise of speed and new local max, with fluctuations, oscillating ...) [(&) cf. previous post ...]

"DENSE SOLAR WIND SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: A dense and strongly magnetized stream of solar wind enveloped Earth for a few hours on July 14th, unsettling our planet's magnetic field (Kp=4). So far, no auroras have been reported, probably because of northern summer sunlight. Quiet conditions are expected to resume on July 15th."

Radio bands still Strongly affected again ... .

+

"
Daily Sun: 15 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Both of these sunspots are stable and quiet. Solar flares are unlikely today. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

+

"
FARSIDE EXPLOSION TOUCHES EARTH: Imagine an explosion on the farside of the sun so powerful, we could feel it here on Earth. It happened on July 13th. The debris emerged in a circular cloud known as a 'halo CME':

Above: The July 13th CME imaged by SOHO coronagraphs​

When space weather forecasters first saw this explosion, there was a moment of excitement. It appeared to be heading directly toward Earth. However, data from NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft indicated otherwise. In fact, the CME was heading directly away from us--a farside event.

Now for the interesting part: Although the explosion occurred on the farside of the sun, it still peppered Earth with high-energy particles. The Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron (ERNE) detector onboard SOHO recorded a surge in hard radiation not long after the CME appeared:

How did this radiation reach our planet? Rami Vainio, a professor of space physics at the University of Turku (Finland), who works with ERNE data says "it’s not possible to answer that question definitely without a detailed analysis involving multiple spacecraft ." However, she speculates that the lift-off of the CME may have created a global shock wave on the farside of the sun. Particles spilling over the edge might have spiraled toward our planet.

Of particular interest are the green data points in the plot above. These are the most energetic protons ERNE can detect. An uptick in green after the CME indicates unusually "hard" radiation---the kind produced in the leading edge of of a hard-charging CME.

The source of the blast might have been the same sunspot (AR2838) that produced the first X-flare of Solar Cycle 25 on July 3rd. That sunspot is currently transiting the farside of the sun approximately where the CME came from. Within the next week AR2838 is expected to return--and then, maybe, the real fun begins. Stay tuned!
"

(Further Update):
+ Speeds are [almost} constantly dropping [but oscillating in a damping oscillation form ...] after the previous local max above [now 0640 UT ...] ...
E.g. (near, a bit later data): speed 397 (Local min) at 0650 UT ; 422 (local max) at 0710 UT ; and 393.5 & 7.2 at 0745 UT (another, lower, local min of speed, still oscillating ...) ... .
AND 394.9 & 8.6 (local min for speed again, after it had gone above 400 again and just dropped again now ...) just now, minutes ago, at 0856 UT ...
+ with overall (and local) min [seen so far] of 391 (and then it rose again, still oscillating ...), just before closing this live watch at 0901 UT ... ...

Speeds still relatively high though ..., and still geomagnetic unrest etc. and radio interfernce etc. still going on until now, even just now (0928 UT) ... .

P.S. But/And the unrest & phenomenon isn't over yet (despite the drop above). Further watch exibited new increasing tendency for speed since the previous above drop, & with a new significant rise to a locally overall max at 1101 UT of 445.5 & 12.4 ... (and oscillating up and down, but overall still rising, before closing at 1152 UT ... [local and overall so far max of 445.9 & 9.2 at 1129 UT ...]).

P.S.': & New update: dropped to 433.2 ... (local min) & 11.4 (rising density) at 1136 UT ..., and then new local and overall so far max of 451.7 & 7.9 at 1145 UT ... [and then dropped again a bit, still oscillating and still perhaps overall rising ...].
Last values and max (biggest today so far, for speed) seen just before closing at 1205 UT: 457.2 & 7.6.

+ Extensive Radio blackouts right now on AM bands (MW and SW confirmed ...) ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[rest of July 15 and] July 16 ... : speed rose higher oscillating and densities mainly low, oscillating up and down too to higher max values and then back low etc., and so forth ... . On July 16, still high speed solar wind and low densities (e.g. a few minutes ago) 474.4 & 5.3 at 0300 UT ... (and subsequently dropped, oscillating ... [and then rising back up again up to lesser but comparable max values (e.g. local low of about 428 ... at around 0310 UT and subsequently gradually rising (oscillating) reaching a significant local [comperable to previous] max of 473.0 & 5.2 (comperable like before density too) at 0351 UT ...) ...] ).
[With overall a slight perhaps damping tendency ... (we'll see how the phenomenon unfolds or e.g. possibly winds down (or subsides?) perhaps today ... etc.) ]

Radio interference and blackouts still in effect ...

+
"ANOTHER HALO CME: It happened again. For the second time in two days, a halo CME billowed away from the farside of the sun on July 15th. It wasn't as potent as the first CME (described below), but it signals continued activity from a hidden sunspot group. The active region could turn to face Earth within the next week."+ Speed still high (and low density) 4hrs later ..., and/but it did indeed overall drop, with e.g. a local max of 467.4 ... (at 0745 UT):

"
Solar wind
speed: 467.4 km/sec
density: 5.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0745 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0727 UT Jul16
24-hr: C1 0727 UT Jul16
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0750 UT

Daily Sun: 16 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

AND a stronger C1 flare at 0837 UT, with a lower local max of 462.0 ... at 0845 UT ..., and an even lower local max of speed of 456.9 ... (& 5.1 density) now (a few minutes ago) at 0929 UT ... (solar wind still oscillating up and down and overall dropping ...) ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Speed of Solar Wind gradually overall dropping (oscillating) with low densities as before. It closed with about 422.1 & 4.6 ... last night (July 16, e.g. at 2345 UT) and now, July 17, oscillates around 411 ...
Radio interference and blackouts [AM bands (MW, SW, LW) etc. ...] still going on ... (it's been a few days now! ...), due to this relatively high speed magnetized solar wind passing through Earth, above our atmosphere ... etc. (originated from consecutive kind of rare solar phenomena, happening for a few days now ... [CIRs, equatorial CME ejection, another CIR, flares, backside flares and halo CMEs ...]. People have reported problems even in FT8 bands. Limited to low reported Aurora activity though (despite the e.g. Kp4 max[?] index reached a few days ago for the Geomagnetic Unrest ...), mainly due to the increased summer sunlight in higher latitudes ... etc. .

Also (take a look at this [from spaceweather.com]) [still for July 16]:

"ANOTHER MAGNIFICENT HALO CME: It just happened again. On July 16th, a magnificent halo CME billowed away from the farside of the sun. This is the 3rd such explosion in the last three days:

This is a sign of continued activity from a hidden farside sunspot group. The active region could turn to face Earth within the next week. Stay tuned! "July 17:

1.

"
Solar wind
speed: 411.3 km/sec
density: 6.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0744 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B7 0317 UT Jul17
24-hr: C1 0837 UT Jul16
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0750 UT

Daily Sun: 17 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

All three of these sunspots are crackling with minor B-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

2. Speed is currently also still dropping [oscillating] (down to ~ 402 ... now at ~0830 UT ...) at/with still low densities ..., so gradually [overall] still dropping (oscillating up and down ...), for now, today July 17 ...

3. And a local min (for speed)/ the final picture a few minutes after (and in fact a few minutes before next editting) ... :

"
speed: 398.0 km/sec
density: 6.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0846 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B7 0317 UT Jul17
24-hr: B8 1140 UT Jul16
"

4. It seems the phenomenon/a is/are/[have (/show) the tendency of] winding down (gradually) for now, at least temporarilly, perhaps, before the next stream/part of the on-going activity arrives ... etc.
[observed radio interference seems to gradually be decreasing too ...].

5. Stable (almost) at ~398 for some time (~15-20min) and then just now (0925 UT) started dropping further ... .
It seems that hopefully a good enough window for clear communications will open soon today (unless something else happens, & before the next phase of the on-going [or other] phenomena or other ..., etc. ... ..., ...) ...

6. BUT another rise (again) [temporary?] before closing:
speed: 413.5 km/sec
density: 6.3 protons/cm3 (at 0959 UT) ... ...

(and local max 414.1 [&5.9] 5min later at 1004 UT ...)P.S. More oscillating (up and down) and new significant rising and showing of new rising tendency just now (at 1100 UT):
speed: 424.0 km/sec
density: 4.9 protons/cm3 ...
(... then dropped a bit [oscillating ...])

and 426.3 ... & 5.6 ... at 1110 UT ...
(and just now 431.3 & 6.0 ... local max for speed at 1125 UT ... [oscillating with an overall rising tendency again for now ... ...])

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) New look later in the day (July 17) - Geomagnetic and Radio Interference etc. (and strong at times) still going on ... - New major drop and dropping tendency, oscillating ... ... :

"
Solar wind
speed: 375.8 km/sec
density: 5.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2156 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 1714 UT Jul17
24-hr: B7 0317 UT Jul17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2200 UT

Daily Sun: 17 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

All three of these sunspots are crackling with minor B-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

THAT WAS A LOCAL Min for speed (above) ... [still oscillating up and down, with an overall dropping tendency again, at this point, and at this time of the day ... ...]B) Further (Extra) News etc. [from spaceweather.com]:

"
STRONG FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: Since July 13th, NASA and ESA spacecraft have observed multiple CMEs billowing away from the farside of the sun. The latest came today, July 17th, when a CME emerged from behind the sun's eastern limb: movie. It all adds up to an explosive farside sunspot group, which could turn to face Earth early next week. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.


HIGH LATITUDE SUNSPOT: An unusual sunspot has emerged in the sun's southern hemisphere. Located 43 degrees south of the sun's equator, AR2844 is a rare high-latitude sunspot:

Sunspots are a mostly-equatorial phenomenon. According to the Solar-Terrestrial Center of Excellence, 95% of sunspots in the historical record have latitudes less than 30 degrees, and nearly three quarters were crowded within 20 degrees of the sun's equator.


AR2844 is an outlier, located 2 to 3 times as far from the equator as a typical sunspot. Since the Space Age began, only a handful of sunspots have been seen at such high latitudes. Now is the time to look for them. Research shows that high-latitude sunspots appear most often during the early years of solar cycles, and Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started.
"C) New local min for speed 375.3 ... (& 5.4 density ...) just now at 2243 UT ...
[and local maxima in between e.g. 388.8 ... (earlier) and more recently 388.9 ... ...] (oscillating between values etc. ...)D) Later further look shows exhibiting of new rising (again x2 ...) tendency ... (and entering July 18 ...) :
1.
"
Solar wind
speed: 394.4 km/sec
density: 4.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0014 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 2346 UT Jul17
24-hr: B7 0317 UT Jul17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0020 UT
"

2.
"
Solar wind
speed: 395.8 km/sec
density: 4.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0110 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 2346 UT Jul17
24-hr: B7 0317 UT Jul17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0115 UT
"... both local maxima ... (still oscillating in between values etc. ...)

 

[davenn]

I really had to laugh at some of that

Anyone who has been doing solar activity studies for more than a few years and has personally observed
at least a couple of solar cycles, knows that high latitude spots/active regions are not uncommon early in a new cycle

The link provided even states that. Spaceweather, as usual, mis-states the data/info.
Tho they do provide lots of good info, They are regularly incorrect

Simple things like the times they state " no spots visible" and there clearly are spots, even on the images they posted themselves

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I really had to laugh at some of that

Anyone who has been doing solar activity studies for more than a few years and has personally observed
at least a couple of solar cycles, knows that high latitude spots/active regions are not uncommon early in a new cycle

The link provided even states that. Spaceweather, as usual, mis-states the data/info.
Tho they do provide lots of good info, They are regularly incorrect

Simple things like the times they state " no spots visible" and there clearly are spots, even on the images they posted themselves

I don't mean to defend them ... (and we've discussed this exact thing before about new cycle spots etc. ... [in fact one of the criteria for verifying/recognizing new cycle etc. is ... ...] ...), BUT, as you also mention the links ..., through them it sais/explains and emphasizes all that ... agreeing with you ... etc. ...

Also, about e.g. "no spots visible ..." etc., keep in mind that they update their images and/or text not at the same time ... (with lapse of time/ delay ... in between/ between them etc. - for some of them, most of the time etc.) [i.e. they update in their own (peculiar perhaps) way], - that's why the said discrepancy ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 18

Still high speed (and temprarilly subsequently dropping, oscillating ...) and new spot group, AR2845, appeared overnight ... :
"
Solar wind
speed: 402.4 km/sec
density: 5.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0545 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0301 UT Jul18
24-hr: B4 1714 UT Jul17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0550 UT

Daily Sun: 18 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

All of these sunspots are crackling with minor B-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

Geomagnetic unrest conditions and radio interference etc. STILL going on, with this significantly magnetized relatively fast/ low proton density solar wind ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Similar conditions (a bit lower) 6 hrs later ...

@davenn how's the radio interference over there, in Australia?

And a bit less than another 6 hrs later (showing again drop on both density and speed ...) ... :
"
Solar wind
speed: 372.5 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1810 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 1659 UT Jul18
24-hr: B9 0709 UT Jul18
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1815 UT
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

After a subsequent local min for speed on previous low density conditions (speed: 368.8 km/sec
density: 5.4 protons/cm3, at 2034 UT, July 18), now entering in July 19 ... proton density is rising, with e.g. a local seen min for speed (and local max of density at the same time):
381.3 km/sec & density: 12.8 protons/cm3, today July 19 at 0150 UT ... .

And after that (another further local min for speed - still oscillating etc., with perhaps a minor dropping overall tendency at this point, or at least stable ...):
376.5 km/sec & 9.8 protons/cm3, at 0215 UT (July 19).

Still geomagnetic unrest and interference conditions etc. ...

Hours later, rising in density (up to 16.7 or more) with similar levels [order of mafnitude] of speed (both oscillating, with varying correlation between them ...) and just now (a few minutes ago) density drops again low:
"
Solar wind
speed: 373.0 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0749 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0532 UT Jul19
24-hr: B4 0135 UT Jul19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0755 UT

Daily Sun: 19 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

It turns out that the new emerging sunspot is actually the old AR2838 that X-flared on July 3rd, returning ... [~2wks after ...] (see ahead).

Speed rose significantly and gradually throughout the day (with mainly low densities) [oscillating and fluctuating], with e.g. typical values e.g. ~433 ... or more etc. (~ave., etc.) ...
Before that (i.e. before rising), there was actually indeed a window for communications etc. ...

Close to the end of the day now, speed rising escallated further, higher, with actually more abrupt, bigger and faster changes/fluctuations and oscillation ... etc.
It seems the 2nd (or next) halo CME is also here now, after these days ...

1. [local and perhaps overall seen so far (today etc.) max for speed ... : ]
"
Solar wind
speed: 468.2 km/sec
density: 5.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2245 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1907 UT Jul19
24-hr: C1 1907 UT Jul19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2250 UT
"2.
"X-FLARE SUNSPOT RETURNS: On July 3rd, sunspot AR2838 unleashed the first X-flare of Solar Cycle 25, then promptly departed on a 2-week journey around the farside of the sun. It's back. The formerly-flaring sunspot is quietly rotating over the sun's northeastern limb, right here. Has it spent its fury since we last saw it--or does some remain? Stay tuned."

3. [new max]

"
speed: 470.1 km/sec
density: 6.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2334 UT
"

& then abruptly dropping ... :
"
speed: 442.4 km/sec
density: 11.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2340 UT
"

& notice the sudden rise in density ...

4. And, just before closing, EVEN higher Max ... :
"
speed: 476.4 km/sec
density: 7.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2350 UT
"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 20:

Similar conditions ... :

Local [and perhaps locally overall (for today etc.) seen] max for speed etc. :
"
Solar wind
speed: 466.6 km/sec
density: 7.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0703 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0118 UT Jul20
24-hr: C1 1907 UT Jul19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0710 UT
"

Local min for speed and high rising density ... etc. :
"
Solar wind
speed: 426.5 km/sec
density: 20.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0715 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0120 UT Jul20
24-hr: C1 1907 UT Jul19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0720 UT

Daily Sun: 20 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

New sunspot AR2846 is actually an old friend: AR2838, source of an X-flare earlier this month. The sunspot has been re-numbered (per tradition) following a 2-week transit around the far side of the sun. Credit: SDO/HMI
"Extra News from spaceweather.com :
"
SOMETHING FLARE-Y THIS WAY COMES: The southeastern limb of the sun is seething with activity. During the late hours of July 19th, Earth-orbiting satellites detected multiple long-duration solar flares as glowing masses of plasma and magnetic arches surged into view. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action:

The source of the turmoil is one or more sunspots hidden behind the limb of the sun. They won't remain hidden for long. The sun's rotation is turning the 'spots toward Earth, and we should be able to see them in the next day or two.


Update: The eruptions of July 19th also hurled a CME into space: movie. The storm cloud will not hit Earth. Future CMEs might, however, as the underlying blast site rotates in our direction later this week.
"Extra further watch (local min for speed again and perhaps also local temporary max for density - cf. earlier above ... ...):
"
Solar wind
speed: 427.1 km/sec
density: 17.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0815 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0525 UT Jul20
24-hr: C1 1907 UT Jul19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0820 UT
"
And before closing, new Local and overall locally max for speed etc. ... :
"
Solar wind
speed: 468.4 km/sec
density: 8.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0826 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0525 UT Jul20
24-hr: C1 1907 UT Jul19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0830 UT
"

Overall abrupt, variable & relatively fast oscillating behaviour ... still going on, as you can also perhaps see from the above data etc. ... ...P.S. Just now, local and locally overall new max, almost at yesterday's levels, and rising tendency shown ... ... :
"
Solar wind
speed: 471.0 km/sec
density: 3.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0925 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0525 UT Jul20
24-hr: C1 1907 UT Jul19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0930 UT
"

and

"
Solar wind
speed: 471.9 km/sec
density: 4.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0931 UT
"AND rocketting to a NEW max, just now! ... ... :
"
Solar wind
speed: 491.7 km/sec
density: 3.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0940 UT
"

(low densities ... ...)

& then

"
Solar wind
speed: 488.8 km/sec
density: 3.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0945 UT
"AND EVEN higher

"
Solar wind
speed: 497.0 km/sec
density: 3.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0956 UT
"

& NEW MAX just now:

"
speed: 509.5 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0959 UT
"

Really fast moving solar wind ... Still problems with radio communications too etc. ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 21

Similar conditions (almost) continued yesterday July 20 all day (high to very high speed, with drops at times [oscillating], and generally low proton density, with risings at times etc. ...) ... [& problems with communications too, with occational windows, one (the latest) around the end of the day ... (in UT ...)].

Today, July 21, similar conditions too ... with high speeds, but with also really low densities (low generally overall than yesterday ...) ...

1.
"
Solar wind
speed: 507.7 km/sec
density: 1.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0346 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2327 UT Jul20
24-hr: C1 2327 UT Jul20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0350 UT
"

2.
"
Solar wind
speed: 491.1 km/sec
density: 2.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0405 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2327 UT Jul20
24-hr: C1 2327 UT Jul20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0410 UT
"

3. Just now, recent temporary drop (oscillating ...) ... etc. :
"
Solar wind
speed: 449.1 km/sec
density: 2.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0431 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2327 UT Jul20
24-hr: C1 2327 UT Jul20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0435 UT
"4. + new spot group etc.:
"Sunspot regions

"

5. Strong Radio Interference on some AM bands (LW, MW, and low SW up to ~10MHz ...) right now (observed and confirmed in my location, at least) ... [~ 0500 UT]
A few hours later ... (New rise in speed and new local higher max + another new spot group ... See):

"Solar wind
speed: 518.6 km/sec
density: 6.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0825 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 0709 UT Jul21
24-hr: C1 2327 UT Jul20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0830 UT

Daily Sun: 21 Jul 21

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A new as-yet-unnumbered sunspot is growing rapidly at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "Note: the previous image has updated (it is live updated as a function of time, all the time, and in [the] future ahead etc. – showing always "now" ... – i.e. caution, as it is kind of misleading etc. ... – /Updated every hour etc. ...); while this one above is static ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Hours later in the day (July 21) ... New Rise ... :

"speed: 527.8 km/sec
density: 5.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1334 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B8 0958 UT Jul21
24-hr: C1 2327 UT Jul20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1340 UT "+ spaceweather.com news:

"SIDEWAYS SOLAR FLARE: A filament of magnetism near sunspot AR2846 erupted yesterday, sparking a B-class solar flare and hurling a cloud of plasma into space. Normally, the location of the blast site would rule out an impact on Earth. However, the explosion's debris squirted out sideways. See the movie. NOAA analysts are evaluating the possibility of a glancing blow later this week."

P.S. Make sure you see the link-movie above! ... It's impressive! Don't miss out! ...Also, always oscillating, dropped after that and rising back up, staying at the below levels (~1½ hrs later) for 3 consecutive measurements (~5min increments) before this final high one (local max ...):

"Solar wind
speed: 513.7 km/sec
density: 5.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1501 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 1348 UT Jul21
24-hr: C1 2327 UT Jul20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1505 UT "

Then dropped again temporarily, oscillating ...

And just now, back up higher ... (Local Max) :
"speed: 521.5 km/sec
density: 6.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1514 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 1348 UT Jul21
24-hr: C1 2327 UT Jul20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1520 UT "Later edit:
Latest update/supplement on the spaceweather.com news quoted above:
"Update: NOAA analysts say that it will not hit Earth."

Similar conditions continue (1922 UT right now) with a generally high speed/ low density oscillating wind and with a relative drop in speed right now (~max 496 [earlier] and ~479 right now to/–446(min) variations, locally so far [timewise], as of now tonight ...) ... etc.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Still July 21 ...]

Local min right now:

"Solar wind
speed: 446.5 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1956 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1604 UT Jul21
24-hr: C1 1604 UT Jul21 "WINDOW FOR CLEAR COMMUNICATIONS on most bands RIGHT NOW (AM bands back up again – just minor interference perhaps at low MW bands etc. ...) ...Later look:
2150 UT right now and local max ~471.5 ... (Still low density)

Just observed extended radio blackout (for some reason ...) in all AM bands (swept ...) [MW, SW, LW] ...

And another local max 472.1 speed & 4.4 density just now, before closing this update, at 2210 UT ...Dropping tendency detected a bit later ... (for now)A look before the end of the day:

"Solar wind
speed: 435.1 km/sec
density: 2.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2344 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2005 UT Jul21
24-hr: C1 2005 UT Jul21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT "

And closed with about 440 ...Early July 22 hours:

New rise and rising tendency (for speed) ..., e.g. two local max:
1.
" Solar wind
speed: 474.0 km/sec
density: 4.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0025 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2005 UT Jul21
24-hr: C1 2005 UT Jul21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0030 UT "

2.
"Solar wind
speed: 480.7 km/sec
density: 5.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0050 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2005 UT Jul21
24-hr: C1 2005 UT Jul21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0055 UT "And further update on the spaceweather.com news earlier (see previous post) [they changed again the prediction]: now they say it will in fact hit Earth (in a couple of days) with possibly a G1 geomagnetic storm ...P.S. ~ 0150 UT observed that radio bands cleaned up again restored ... (for now, temporarily ..., or we'll see how it goes ...)
New window for communications ...