Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[sophiecentaur]

Did you see anything on the low horizon ?
The auroral oval was quite a way north of the UK ( I don't know where in the UK you are ?)

View attachment 284510

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

 

[Ibix]

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

Indeed. I'm about half a degree further south, which is also disappointing - seeing aurorae is on my bucket list.

(The northern tip of mainland UK is about 58.5N, for info.)

 

[davenn]

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

Indeed. I'm about half a degree further south, which is also disappointing - seeing aurorae is on my bucket list.

(The northern tip of mainland UK is about 58.5N, for info.)

Just remember, that this was just a small event. A much stronger event ( much larger CME, equatorial coronal hole) and the auroral oval will come much further south so don't give up hope

 

[sophiecentaur]

so don't give up hope

As they say: "watch this space". Boom boom!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

As they say: "watch this space". Boom boom!

There are many types of "boom boom". Let's "hope for the best but be prepared for the worst ..."

[E.g. what is statistically the expectation for a mini-nova? What are the chances and ~when? ... etc. ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

News for June 30 & July 1, 2021:
(This was not in the forecast)

SHOCKWAVE SPARKS AURORAS: A minor interplanetary shock wave jolted Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of June 30th, sparking rare midsummer auroras over Canada and some northern-tier US states. It might have been the edge of a CME originally expected to arrive on July 1st. If not, another jolt could occur in the next 24 hours.

(See e.g. @ Spaceweather.com. for details etc.)
[Relevant archive links: 1) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=30&month=06&year=2021 , 2) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=01&month=07&year=2021 ]

[Additional impacts are possible on July 1st and July 3rd ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Also [currently] increasing chance of flares due to AR2835 (which has grown really big). That (if it happens [perhaps any minute now, July 1st and forth]) it may cause radio blackouts etc. ...

https://spaceweather.com/images2021/30jun21/sunspot_evolution_strip.gif

"Now twice as wide as Earth, its primary dark core is inset in this magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

As the sunspot has grown, its magnetic structure has become more complex. Note the mixing of north (+) and south (-) magnetic fields in this area. When magnetic fields of opposite polarity bump together, they can explode. The process is known as magnetic reconnection, and it is responsible for solar flares.

Any flares today will be geoeffective as the sunspot is directly faciing Earth."https://spaceweather.com/images2021/01jul21/hmi1898.gif

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Besides, [cf. previous post(s),] AR2835 has already given B2 and C3 flares (but holds dynamics/is a strong canditate even for M-class solar flares ...):

" X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0212 UT Jul01
24-hr: C3 1815 UT Jun30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0715 UT

Daily Sun: 01 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2835 has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Besides, [cf. previous post(s),] AR2835 has already given B2 and C3 flares (but holds dynamics/is a strong canditate even for M-class solar flares ...):

More B-class solar flares only, so far ... (B6 & B3, July 1 & 2, so far ...)

[+ See classification of X-ray Solar Flares: https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html ]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

2 new relative points of interest regarding the recent activity above etc.:
1) A minor CME is expected to hit Earth tomorrow July 3rd (it left the Sun on June 29 ...). The impact is expected minor as well, possibly causing perhaps high latitude auroras if not geomagnetic storms ...
2) The Huge Sunspot AR2835 is even visible with unaided eye (i.e. no magnification necessary) at this point, just by using proper filter protection for the eyes! of course (e.g. eclipse solar glasses or eqivalent ...) ... ... . Don't miss it!
[I just saw it a couple of hours ago ... - it also serves as a good eye test too! ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 3rd: Radio blackout going on now (or mainly earlier today) ... Due to significant solar flare from active sunspot region AR2835 ... [In case it could get worse ... watch out for internet too, perhaps, but HOPEFULLY [and most likely] NOT (at this time/point) [unless there will be an X-class flare etc. ...] ... ...]:

Significant M2-class Solar Flare (at 0717 UT) from Active Sunspot Region AR2835 and [AM (MW & SW)] radio blackout ... still going on, just a couple of hours ago ... ...

Time for observational solar astronomy ... (CAUTION: USE FILTERS or Eclipse Solar Glasses to watch etc. ...) + the spot region AR2835 is still huge, even seen with unaided eye (i.e. no magnification necessary), WITH FILTERS of course! ...

{The huge by now sunspot AR2835 is visible even without magnification! ... BUT of course you need protective filter to see it (CAUTION!), e.g. can use solar eclipse glasses etc. ...
But/Also, IN ANY CASE, do not observe for long the domain, even with good filters ... (with or without magnification ...).}

[+
See classification of X-ray Solar Flares: https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html

#solar #spaceweather #sun #solarnews #news ]

P.S. I assume the M2 flare could trigger aurora activity too ... (We'll see)

 

[Astronuc]

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected. Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

I was wondering about the current cycle. My wife had been asking me about radio interference the last several weeks, which I also noticed, and I assumed it was related to solar activity and the ionosphere, and related to the auroral activity.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot
https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle
https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210702.html

AR2835 (captured in a sharp telescopic close-up from July 1 and published on APOD) spans about 150,000 kilometers or over ten Earth diameters. On June 25, AR2835 and AR2836 were just starting to come around to the Earth facing side of the sun.

https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/06/sun-sunspot-ar2835

Since then, AR2835 has grown from three (June 25) to four (June 28) to 12 (June 29) to 16 (June 30) .
Images were taken using the Slooh.com Canary Five solar telescope.

Earlier in May - https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/05/ar2822-and-ar2823

 

[sophiecentaur]

CAUTION: USE FILTERS or Eclipse Solar Glasses to watch etc. ..

If you have somewhere indoors with a long 'throw' between a window and a wall, a pinhole camera can give you a fair sized projected image or, even better, use half a pair or binoculars and (again indoors) you can project a very watchable image on a white sheet of paper (or grey, if the image is too bright for comfort). It's much easier looking down on an image than directly upwards. Experiment!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Will we see more or even worse temporary radio blackouts and/or auroras etc. due to flares the next hours or days?

We might, if we get X-class flares (e.g. X9 would probably do it! ...) ... . However, this active sunspot region (AR2835) may not do it (for now - although you never know) - it's also getting off limb ≥the day after tomorrow, besides winding down now and getting smaller ... .

But there was a new one started out/born overnight (or last night - depending on the region of observance & local time) ..., and that one flared right away!, right after its appearrence, with a C7 fairly strong flare [but still smaller than the M-class of flares though (e.g. the other M2 flare)] which also caused local temporary radio blackouts in some regions (about 8min+ after its origin on the Sun) ... . [Class C flares (weaker than M and that weaker than X ... - see link in the previous post) are in the limit in causing such radio blackouts (smaller or bigger) [and/or auroras/magnetic storms etc. ...] ... ... . M & X class flares are stronger and more likely (to cause such [effects]) and eligible in that respect ... etc. ... ].

Now if that new active spot region fortifies [properly] (we'll see) it might be more "promising" to be eligible to give rise to [M or even] X flares ... (and more Radio Blackouts etc., as well as Auroras etc. ...). We'll see ...
[More details later ... ]

#solar #spaceweather #sun #solarnews #news P.S. (in the process of posting the above ...):

And actually an X1 flare [from a new group] just occurred (a couple of hours ago) from that new spot group/region (born in the early July 3rd am hours) ... Causing NEW & bigger radio blackouts and perhaps bringing auroras too etc. ...
Details later ...
& that was the first X-flare in 4 years (since the "Monster X9 flare of Sept 2017" ...) ! ...
So it turns out I was almost right. That new spot region is indeed in fact more "promising" ... ...

#critical #possiblethreats

 

[Stavros Kiri]

If you have somewhere indoors with a long 'throw' between a window and a wall, a pinhole camera can give you a fair sized projected image or, even better, use half a pair or binoculars and (again indoors) you can project a very watchable image on a white sheet of paper (or grey, if the image is too bright for comfort). It's much easier looking down on an image than directly upwards. Experiment!

That would reduce significantly the radiation too etc. ... (It's actually a lot safer perhaps, if you do it right and be careful ...)
Great ideas ... Thanks!
[Will give it a try perhaps tomorrow - it will be an intersting weekend - and CMEs (minor) arriving on July 3rd & 4th ... – + more flares, radio blackouts perhaps etc. – we'll see)]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I was wondering about the current cycle. My wife had been asking me about radio interference the last several weeks, which I also noticed, and I assumed it was related to solar activity and the ionosphere, and related to the auroral activity.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot
https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle
https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210702.html

AR2835 (captured in a sharp telescopic close-up from July 1 and published on APOD) spans about 150,000 kilometers or over ten Earth diameters. On June 25, AR2835 and AR2836 were just starting to come around to the Earth facing side of the sun.

https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/06/sun-sunspot-ar2835

Since then, AR2835 has grown from three (June 25) to four (June 28) to 12 (June 29) to 16 (June 30) .
Images were taken using the Slooh.com Canary Five solar telescope.

Earlier in May - https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/05/ar2822-and-ar2823

Thanks @Astronuc ! Great input! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Cf. Previous post(s) ...]
#solar #spaceweather #sun #solarnews #news

Actually an X1 new Solar Flare [from a new group] DID IN FACT just occur (a few of hours ago - at 1429 UT) from that new spot group/region (born in the early July 3rd am hours [going to be named after AR2838 ...]) ... Causing NEW & bigger radio blackouts and perhaps bringing auroras too etc. ...
Details later ...
& that was the first X-flare in 4 years (since the "Monster X9 flare of Sept 2017" ...) ! ...
So it turns out I was almost right. That new spot region is indeed in fact more "promising" ... ... . It might even bring stronger X-class flares (+ radio bursts and auroras/magnetic storms etc.) ... ... (who knows – watch this space! ...) [& CAUTION is advised ...]

Supplement:
1)
" X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: X1 1429 UT Jul03
24-hr: X1 1429 UT Jul03
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1815 UT

Daily Sun: 03 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "2) "
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Today's explosion registered X1.5 on the Richter Scale of Solar Flares​

A pulse of X-rays briefly ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean: blackout map. Mariners, aviators, and amateur radio operators may have noticed unusual propagation effects below 30 MHz just after 1429 UT

The source of this flare is an un-numbered sunspot now growing near the sun's northwestern limb. Yesterday it did not even exist, highlighting the unpredictability of solar activity. More flares may be in the offing, so stay tuned."

3) However, notice that the new region is already near the limb! ... Too bad (or lucky too good [?] ...) it will go on the other side soon ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

The Sun now (July 5, 2021, 0404 UT)

Sunspot regions​

The previously newborn AR2838 [group that did the X1.5 flare on July 3rd] is gone behind limb now (on the far side, returning in ~ 2 weaks, if still active ...).

Now there's another new group, AR2839, developing rapidly! ... .

AR2835 M-flared again yesterday on July 4th, with an M1.5 flare (0509 UT). Also there was a B5 at 2127 UT, as well as a C1 at 1813 UT ... (July 4th). Getting close to Limb too ...

Supplement: here's a last view of AR2838 [yesterday (before it was gone off limb), July 4th, early am hours, or early UT hours] (the region that did the X1.5 flare on July 3rd ...):

Daily Sun: 04 Jul 21

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"

Solar wind speed: 339.2 km/sec density: 7.9 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0615 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B5 0511 UT Jul05 24-hr: C1 1813 UT Jul04 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0620 UT Daily Sun: 05 Jul 21 Expand: labels | no labels New sunspot AR2839 is growing rapidly. Credit: SDO/HMI

"Earlier overnight, the proton density (of solar wind) was 12.5 ... [e.g. at some point within arrival of a CME ..., as expected.]

As you see again, new promising group perhaps [AR2839] ...

There was also another [recent] B5 this morning [July 5th - just less than 2 hours ago] (see above) from the old activity region ...

Stay tuned ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Just recently, C1 at 1843 UT, July 5th ... (24 hr max flare, at this point)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

(July 6)
1)
"

Solar wind
speed: 340.0 km/sec
density: 11.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0620 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 0035 UT Jul06
24-hr: C1 1843 UT Jul05
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0625 UT

Daily Sun: 06 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2835 is cracking up. It is now split down the middle, signaling a breakup. Credit: SDO/HMI
"

2)
"FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: On July 3rd, sunspot AR2838 unleashed the first X-flare of Solar Cycle 25. Hours later, the sunspot disappeared--but it hasn't stopped flaring. Two CMEs just flew away from the farside of the sun where AR2838 is now located (stay tuned for movies). If it holds together long enough, the sunspot will return to the Earthside in less than 2 weeks."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I accidentally lost/erased [about an hour ago] a (kind of long) space weather almanac-related post for today July 7, 2021, with update "minute-to-minute" (kind of) interesting solar behavior for today activity ... etc.

While I'm re-writting, I'm posting another relevant [short] one first [that would originally follow] for 1) not missing the essense, at least 2) for preparing at least on time perhaps (almost, ±, ~ ...) ... 3) and mainly (for this post) to serve also as a time reference (almost/approximately) and for the lost next one too (that was supposed to be here instead first ...) ... :

" Summer (in Northern Hemisphere) is currently hot (and expected ..., perhaps more ... etc.) ... ... New Solar cycle (#25) [for some time now, and started out strong, perhaps relatively overperforming] (sunspots, flares etc.) etc. is affecting ... etc.
(Strong Solar Wind now these days, and especially today [July 7, 2021], really high proton density [max ~15.4, at ~1700 UT] etc. ... ...) [and starting ~July 9 new phenomenon & expected high solar wind too, as well as expected auroras etc. ... Coming up ...]

#solar #sun #spaceweather #weather #forecasts "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Interesting days (and the days ahead)July 7:

1) Increased significantly Solar Wind for extended hours (several hours now) [with maximum proton density [reached] 13.8 (just a few minutes ago [now, while setting up this post, the time is ~1430 UT (± ...) ... (and just mentioning a local min now ~11.6 or 11.4 ...)]) (and a local maximum earlier today [13.4] - see below) ... – see ahead], "oscilating" up and down (almost in a wave form) all this time now, between max and min values (but still the minima being significantly high too ... etc.), and with several LOCAL maxima and minima [in between, etc.] ... ... (see ahead):a)

"

​ Solar wind speed: 322.2 km/sec density: 13.4 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1210 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B5 1134 UT Jul07 24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 1215 UT Daily Sun: 07 Jul 21 Expand: labels | no labels Sunspot AR2835 on the sun's western limb where it is magnetically connected to Earth through the Parker spiral. Credit: SDO/HMI

"b)"

Solar wind

speed: 331.0 km/sec
density: 13.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1405 UT

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: B5 1134 UT Jul07

24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06

explanation | more data

Updated: Today at: 1410 UT
...
...
[& sunspot AR2835 on the sun's western limb where it is magnetically connected to Earth through the Parker spiral. Credit: SDO/HMI]

"c) [and in between the two [highest] maxima(/values) ... (as an example of [the highest] local max ...): ]"
Solar wind

speed: 324.1 km/sec
density: 12.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1225

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: B5 1134 UT Jul07

24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06

explanation | more data

Updated: Today at: 1230 UT

"d) [and my first initial observation (starting point - perhaps local max too) earlier today ... :]"
Solar wind

speed: 325.1 km/sec
density: 12.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1105 UT

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: B2 0716 UT Jul07

24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06

explanation | more data

Updated: Today at: 1110 UT

[& Sunspot AR2835 on the sun's western limb where it is magnetically connected to Earth through the Parker spiral. Credit: SDO/HMI]
"e) Other local maxima [in between values] (besides the 13.4 & 13.8 above ...) : 12, another 12.8, 11.9 (x2 [?]), 12.4, 11.8 ...

And local minima: 11.4, 11.6, ... ~11 (or less ... – couldn't tell accurately) and I think even ~10 ... (at some point in between, as the lowest min perhaps of the "oscilation" ... [during this (observation) time [interval] ...]) [I do certainly recall a 10.8 and 10.9 ... ].f) + more recent high max too (13.8, again! ...) [or it may even have been higher (e.g. ~13.9 or even ~14 ... ...)] :

"
Solar wind
speed: 327.6 km/sec
density: 13.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1510 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1134 UT Jul07
24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1515 UT
"g) + New ~significant flare (B7) ... :

"
Solar wind

speed: 323.7 km/sec
density: 12.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1620 UT

X-ray Solar Flares

6-hr max: B7 1551 UT Jul07

24-hr: C1 1915 UT Jul06

explanation | more data

Updated: Today at: 1625 UT
"
2)
"CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of geomagnetic unrest onJuly 9th when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing CME-like density gradients that can spark auroras."3) Is today's intetesting behavior the result of a CME, or could it be a premature version/behavior or beginning/starting point (etc.) of the above phenomenon expected ~July 9th etc. ? ... [Any ideas, thoughts, questions ? ...]
Even tonight it may be a good oportunity for auroras etc., and in the days ahead (see above) etc. ...4) The major spot groups are gone now [from view] ... (just two in view for now, and relatively quiet ...).
The Sun overall, relatively quiet too (as far as flares etc.), despite the overall still intersting behavior today ... etc. :

Sunspot regions​

Today's Sun​

[Now (fairly recently, still today) – the other groups are gone – cf. above ... etc. .]

5) Another EVEN HIGHER maximum (local and 'localy absolute' [for today etc.] ... etc.) on proton density, while still originally writting this post (before accidental deletion and re-make ...) ... : ... "really high proton density [max ~15.4, at ~1700 UT] etc. ... ..."
Comments? Ideas?

[Post finally restored 2233UT ... √]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

[Still July 7] Solar Wind (proton density) increased again significantly high (cf. previous post) just now (recently, ~1/2 ago) ... :

"
Solar wind
speed: 344.7 km/sec
density: 15.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2039 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B7 1551 UT Jul07
24-hr: C1 2150 UT Jul06
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2045 UT
"

And then [finally] dropped down at 8.4 just now, at 2110 UT ... (Seems it's winding down now ...).

 

[jim mcnamara]

Check out the Carrington Event of 1859--
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/carrington-event-warning/

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Check out the Carrington Event of 1859--
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/carrington-event-warning/

Regarding that ("
Just and aside - written history documents a monster X class flare in 1859. The Coronal Mass Ejection was aimed right at Earth. It caused fires in telegraph stations in the northern hemisphere, for example. Called the Carrington Event.

It would cripple modern technology unless the grid, satellites, phones, and internet communications systems are able to be protected and powered off.
") Etc.Was that a mini-nova? (If I recall correctly, the terminology/ that term applies in this case, I think - will get back to that later ...)

A similar (at least "symptom-wise" etc.) event happened on May of 1921 [(the) most recent significantly "disasterous" one ...] [May 15 – 100 years ago ...]. See post #82 of this thread ...
https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...ace-weather-update-thread.923468/post-6492918

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Regarding the somewhat long post #113 above:
The post has parts 1) [a), b), ..., g)], 2), ... 5). Pay particular attention on part #2) announcing a significant solar [wind] phenomenon coming up ~July 9 ... (causing perhaps EXTRA magnetic disturbances, auroras, even radio blackouts, may be, etc. – we'll – stay tuned! ...). Interesting days [coming up] ahead! (even [may] have started/happening already ...) ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Thursday July 8 [2021]

The solar wind was relatively stable high overnight around on the 12+ mark for proton density and relatively high speeds. Before that, and in between with the previous posts (earlier above), it had returned to normal levels for a few hours.
Now, after the earlier overnight high and peak, it winded back down again (~low to normal ...) ... :

"

​

Solar wind speed: 327.1 km/sec density: 5.9 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 0654 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: B2 0416 UT Jul08 24-hr: B7 1551 UT Jul07 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 0700 UT Daily Sun: 08 Jul 21 Expand: labels | no labels These sunspots are magnetically simple and pose little threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

"

That was a few minutes ago. And just before posting (this post) it even went down to 5.5 ... (min) [for now ...].

P.S. Now 7:18 UT ..., density at low 4.2 [on ~0710 UT] ... ... ! (and just started rising, 4.4 ... [07:15 UT], and subsequenly further higher ..., but still small or normal ...)
[Thus 4.2 was an overall local min so far ...]

P.S.' : went up to 7.9 ... and just now [0736 UT] down to EVEN LOWER 4.0 ... ! [This latest Posting/Editing started at 0740 UT] ...
And, finaly, now before closing this editing, 3.8 (at 0740 UT), seen at 0745 UT ... Etc.

P.S.'' : continued tracking ... (to find the [overall] local min): 3.2 (at 0745 UT) and 4.0 (at 0750) and rising back up again ...
Thus, min = 3.2 (for now).

Closing editting 0800 UT, with last seen a 3.6 (at 0754) and a 3.4 (at 0800 UT) ... Etc.
Now 0805 to 0808 UT.

It seems the oscillation is on the minimum [side] today ... (Quiet Solar Wind & Sun ...) ...

P.S.''' : 4.2 (at 0805) ..., and 3.8 (at 0810) ... Etc.
Thus: 3.4 above was also a local min, but the global overall min seen so far is/was the 3.2 earlier (see above) ... [for now ...].
Ending post editting at 0830 UT ... (last values seen 3.3 [x2] at 0815 and 0819 UT, 2.8 at 0825 UT ... AND 2.6 at 0830 UT, NEW LOWEST MIN so far, perhaps the overall ...).

End of Live Watch at 0840 (with 2.7 seen at 0835) ... .
[So 2.6 was in fact the min of the watch ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Extra Notes:

1) There was an even lower min of 1.8 protons/cm³ and a local max of 11.7 ... ...

2) The sunspot group AR2840 is relatively new (just appeared yesterday [or better ~ between the 6th and 7th ... (of July [2021])]).

Also AR2839 (still also ~ new), as seen before, appeared bet. the 4th & 5th ...

They both have been relatively quiet ...

3) New group seems to be forming (perhaps - we'll see – OR IS IT the old faded AR2837?! ...) almost between the two and kind of near the west Limb: (July 8)

Sunspot regions​

Today's Sun​

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 9

A) Low Solar Wind (at low normal levels) today so far, despite the announcement for geomagnetic unrest for July 9 (due to phenomenon (*) described briefly on July 7). It could be that that peculiar solar wind was what we experienced the last 2 days (prematurely? ... !?) [as two different wind oscillations (of an almost wave pattern form), one in the maxima domain (July 7) and one in the minima domain (yesterday July 8) ... – see posts] ... ... We'll see how the day unfolds.

(*) See post #113 (part 2) ) and the link following in the short description here: what is a "co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ... : CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing CME-like density gradients that can spark auroras."B)
A CME happened the day before yesterday (July 7 – from equatorial decaying group AR2837) and left the Sun, most part of it though heading originally away from Earth. However a Solar Wind from that Coronal Hole/Ejection will probably hit us in a few days:

"SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A high-speed stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. ETA: July 11-12. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. Minor geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible when the solar wind arrives."