Statistical model for soccer prediction

[moby_y]

My goal is to implement a web based software to provide a soccer forecast table like http://www.gymex.com/Predictions.html" as an interesting feature for visitors.
I don't have any problem with coding the application but I need a set of clear instructions to start coding. I read an article by "M. J. MAHER" titled "http://footballinvestor.co.uk/default_htm_files/1982%20Maher%20-%20Modelling%20Association%20Football%20Scores.pdf" " which is a little bit old but at least I can understand some parts of it and ask for more clear details about it.

Homework Statement

The author claims that, in a football match, number of goals has a Poisson distribution. In the second paragraph of section "2 The Model" the author says:

and at the end of the same section we have some equations for calculating the mentioned parameters:

I think if I calculate these 4 parameters for each team I would have the lambda parameter of the Poisson distribution. Then I should be able to calculate the probability of x=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. goals by each team and after that I just need to pick the x which has the highest probability as the number of goals by that team. If I am wrong please correct me.

Currently I don't know how to calculate the four mentioned parameters according to the football stats and match tables. http://www.soccerstats.com/ has the stats but I don't know how to use these information to calculate the parameters.

Also in the section "5 A bivariate Poisson model", Author offers a more complex approach to make the model more accurate. I couldn't get this part and I don't know how to use it to make the program's results more accurate.
My math really sucks so I need some help. I would be thankful if you provide at least an example for calculating the mentioned parameters and give a more clear explanation of section "5 A bivariate Poisson model".

Homework Equations

MARK J. DIXON and STUART G. COLES enhanced the MAHER approach to predicting the match results. their article titled "http://isc.temple.edu/economics/wkpapers/airports/mvpoisson/soccer_betting.pdf" " has more details and explanations about MAHER's work.

The Attempt at a Solution

If I gain a good understanding of the MAHER's article, I'll start.


Thanks,
Moby

 

[rootX]

Calculating Sx:

You make two nested iterations:
For first iteration go through all the teams using variable i
For second iteration go through all teams using variable j

If the i != j:
You find the goals scored by the i team against the team j when the team i was home team and add it to var Sx...

Author defines xij and yij here:

In particular, if team i is playing at home against team j and the observed score is (xij, yij)

I have not read all the article. Only the line I quoted above to find what is xij and yij.

 

[moby_y]

Hi rootX,
Thanks for the reply. Actually I know how to code the formulas but as you know, one should have a good understanding and a clear set of instructions to code a program.
I have coded a couple of programs for numerical analysis and discrete event systems courses and I wish I could go back to that time and have my friends and professors support.

If you read my explanation in the first post it would only take a few minutes to scheme the article and I believe reading this article would be fairy easy for those who have a good understanding of Statistics and Numerical calculus.

Thanks,
Moby