Swine Flu: Potential Threat to Human Species?

[russ_watters]

Who pays the WHO to do what they are paid to do?

According to their wiki, it is funded through normal UN operations and voluntary contributions from countries and the public and at the moment the voluntary contributions exceed the set budget.

I'm still not in favor of an international organization with a well-established responsibility following fads for funding. Perhaps they are just doing the best they can with what they have to work with, but this is yet another symptom of people not handling problems correctly. It's a common theme of mine on this forum - people generally agree about what the right thing to do is if they step back and look at it objectively, but in the real world, it doesn't happen that way.

Besides which, if they lost half their funding because they weren't chasing news fads, I bet they'd still save more lives by focusing their smaller resources on the low hanging fruit like malaria. Malaria is easy. It is pathetic that in 2009, a million people die of it a year. [/soapbox]

 

[CRGreathouse]

I believe that you are referring to Tamiflu and Relenza.

Yes, those are both effective. But DO NOT take them unless you have the [swine] flu! They are not vaccines, and in fact taking them will lessen or remove their effectiveness if you contract it.

 

[buffordboy23]

Yes, those are both effective. But DO NOT take them unless you have the [swine] flu! They are not vaccines, and in fact taking them will lessen or remove their effectiveness if you contract it.

I remember back a few years ago when reading a scientific article (of course, I no longer have the source) about strategic plans should the avian flu become a pandemic. One of the main points was that by using Tamiflu as a prophylactic in hard-hit areas (along with other measures), the disease will spread less severely. One subsequent problem is then supply versus demand. Here is link that supports the prophylactic use of Tamiflu: http://www.pandemictoolkit.com/about-tamiflu/about-roletamifluplay.aspx.

I agree that taking it as a prophylactic for long durations (because if the swine flu becomes a pandemic it is likely to persist for months) will decrease it's overall effectiveness later.

 

[hypatia]

Because people at trendy resort hotels in Cancun aren't likely to get it.

We had several confirmed cases here in Michigan, one was a 18 yr old high school student who had taken a trip to Cancun, returned 10 days ago..

 

[Astronuc]

1,000,000 people die from malaria every year. Why isn't the media covering malaria outbreaks?

Probably because malaria is not a threat in the US or other industrialized nations. It is primarily a problem in sub-Saharan Africa and Brazil, mainly in a band 15N - 20S latitude.

http://www.cdc.gov/malaria/facts.htm

Each year 350–500 million cases of malaria occur worldwide, and over one million people die, most of them young children in sub-Saharan Africa.

but

1,337 cases of malaria, including 8 deaths, were reported for 2002 in the United States, even though malaria has been eradicated in this country since the early 1950's

Of the 1,337 malaria cases reported for 2002 in the United States, all but five were imported, i.e., acquired in malaria-endemic countries.

Between 1957 and 2003, in the United States, 63 outbreaks of locally transmitted mosquito-borne malaria have occurred; in such outbreaks, local mosquitoes become infected by biting persons carrying malaria parasites (acquired in endemic areas) and then transmit malaria to local residents.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria

As for the latest variant of swine flu (perhaps now called Mexican swine flu)

The earliest confirmed case of the illness was in the town of La Gloria, Veracruz, Mexico, with 5 year old Édgar Enrique Hernández, considered to possibly be patient zero.

Earliest case of swine flu tucked away in Mexico, officials say
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu/index.html

Mexico outbreak traced to 'manure lagoons' at pig farm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6182789.ece


Since Veracruz is somewhat distant from places like Acapulco and Cancun, tourists in those areas are less likely to contract the flu, particularly if there are direct flights from Acapulco or Cancun to US airports. On the other hand, traveling through Mexico may increase risk of exposure.

 

[mgb_phys]

http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/pr_1241056994692.shtm

"We're also actively monitoring travelers at our land, sea, and air ports. We're watching them for signs of illness, and we have appropriate protocols in place to deal with those who are sick. Anyone exhibiting symptoms is being referred to an isolation room where they can be evaluated by a public health official before proceeding to their destruction."

I'm a little worried - I have hay-fever and I have to visit Houston next week!

 

[gravenewworld]

Malaria is not news. It is not a changing dynamic, so it isn't news worthy. As such, it isn't a commonly salable product--it could harm their Nielsen ratings. Every once and a while some reporter will manage to make news from no news, or introduce a 'special interest story' but it's not the norm. Next time you watch the news, watch for these. As for the rest of the media, who knowns how much is diseminated on this matter? The mass media is too large.

Not true at all, traditional quinolines that were once effective are now ineffective against growing pockets of quinoline resistant malaria sprining up in Asia. Considering the fact that malaria infects 300 million people world wide every year, resistance is growing, and also the fact that spending on R&D for malaria pharmaceuticals is very low, we should all be much more worried about malaria right now.

 

[DaveC426913]

"We're also actively monitoring travelers at our land, sea, and air ports. We're watching them for signs of illness, and we have appropriate protocols in place to deal with those who are sick. Anyone exhibiting symptoms is being referred to an isolation room where they can be evaluated by a public health official before proceeding to their destruction."

OK, now that's a bit draconian...

 

[jreelawg]

They meant destination right?

 

[mgb_phys]

They meant destination right?

You would hope so - but this is the DHS!

How long will it take somebody to notice and update the website?

 

[angak001]

how many people would approximately die from this? Hundreds of thousands? Millions? Hundreds of Millions? Billions perhaps? What is the kill rate of this virus? Could it threaten the safety of the entire human species? Will I be safe if I stay in my house and stockpile extremely large quantities of food and water?

No the swine flu does not look like a threat at the moment and the swine flu might kill thousands of people before it dies down.
The world has enough drugs to cure more than half the worlds population of this threat so there is not really anything to worry about as far as you are cautious of the people around you when you are in a public place.

 

[lisab]

You would hope so - but this is the DHS!

How long will it take somebody to notice and update the website?

They changed it...wow, someone at Homeland Security has a really warped sense of humor - that was hilarious!

 

[Count Iblis]

Swine flu will probably decline a bit as summer arrives. It will only cause mild problems just like the 1918 Spanish flu did during the summer. Then, in the fall, just like in 1918, the flu will return and cause big problems.

Flu is contageous before it causes illness. So, if you are infected and you will become ill in a few days from now, you can already spread the disease to others. But this happens more easily in the winter because then you tend to sneeze and cough more if you are not ill. You can have a cold or you can simpy cough/sneeze due to exess mucus in your nose due to simply a reaction to cold weather.

So, when cold weather arrives, you can expect an explosion in the number of flu cases.

 

[Ukitake Jyuushirou]

Can anyone explain the mechanism of how 4 viruses come together into one? Is it rare for this happen?

Second, we seem to have been anticipating or at least concerned about a possible devastating avian flu outbreak. What is the basis for this concern? What in recent times happened to make the risk of mutated flu greater?

Third, does anyone know why common forms of the flu happen every year, but deadly forms like the 1918 form die out? Is this new virus going to come and go quickly, or will it be something new that people get every year?

Fourth, why is this virus rampant when it isn't flu season? If this were to happen in the winter would it be much worse? And are we now going to have to worry about the flu year round?

4 viruses? Are you referring to the H1N1 and H5N1 influenza virus? If so it is just 2 strains of virus from the Orthomyxoviridae family. The influenza viruses are divided into 3 groups A, B and C. Usually only influenza A is of concern since it is the one that causes pandemics.

The H in H1N1 refers to haemagglutinin, there are 14 of them (H1-14) and N refers to neuraminidase, there are 9 of them (N1-9). The action of neuraminidase allows virius to elute from red blood cells while the action of haemagglutinin allow the virus to attach itself to the host cell.

Every now and then the avian influenza virus and the human influenza virus come together in a single host and usually it is the pig because their tracheal have sialic acid (SA) receptor alpha 2,3 (for avian influenza virus) and alpha 2,6 (for human influenza virus) in 1:1 ratio so it makes them a very good mixing pot for the virus. When that happens we get what is called an antigenic shift in which RNA segments are swapped in cells infected with 2 different viruses, the virus change to a new subtype (eg H1N1 to H1N2). Antibodies that recognize the old subtype will not recognize the new subtype hence the immune system cannot react to the virus and a major epidemic/pandemic is born...

 

[ViewsofMars]

A quote from the April 29, 2009 statement by WHO Director-General, Dr Margaret Chan on swine influenza.

Based on assessment of all available information, and following several expert consultations, I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.

Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world. On the positive side, the world is better prepared for an influenza pandemic than at any time in history.

Preparedness measures undertaken because of the threat from H5N1 avian influenza were an investment, and we are now benefitting from this investment.

For the first time in history, we can track the evolution of a pandemic in real-time.

I thank countries who are making the results of their investigations publicly available. This helps us understand the disease.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090429/en/index.html

A quote from April 29, 2009 transcript of Virtual Press conference with Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General ad. Interim for Health Security and Environment World Health Organization. Please be sure to read the entire document.

It would be very interesting to be able to trace back and find out where the origin of this virus came from. This is one of the things that everyone is always interested about with a new disease. But I would say that at this point we have higher priorities. The most important priority in terms of investigations is to document what is going on now, how is the picture evolving: are we seeing infections in severe cases that are not being detected, are we seeing infection established itself in areas in which it has not yet been documented… this are the kind of investigations that are really critical right now to answer the most urgent issues of how is this evolving, where is it going, what is the impact on people, what steps might be taken to protect people. Nonetheless, I believe that at some point we should come back and try to understand what are the origins of this virus, both in terms of how it moved from pigs to people, where that might have happened. Very interesting questions but maybe not the highest priorities right now.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/swineflu_presstranscript_2009_04_29.pdf

 

[jreelawg]

4 viruses? Are you referring to the H1N1 and H5N1 influenza virus? If so it is just 2 strains of virus from the Orthomyxoviridae family. The influenza viruses are divided into 3 groups A, B and C. Usually only influenza A is of concern since it is the one that causes pandemics.

The H in H1N1 refers to haemagglutinin, there are 14 of them (H1-14) and N refers to neuraminidase, there are 9 of them (N1-9). The action of neuraminidase allows virius to elute from red blood cells while the action of haemagglutinin allow the virus to attach itself to the host cell.

Every now and then the avian influenza virus and the human influenza virus come together in a single host and usually it is the pig because their tracheal have sialic acid (SA) receptor alpha 2,3 (for avian influenza virus) and alpha 2,6 (for human influenza virus) in 1:1 ratio so it makes them a very good mixing pot for the virus. When that happens we get what is called an antigenic shift in which RNA segments are swapped in cells infected with 2 different viruses, the virus change to a new subtype (eg H1N1 to H1N2). Antibodies that recognize the old subtype will not recognize the new subtype hence the immune system cannot react to the virus and a major epidemic/pandemic is born...

"Genetics and effects


Negative stain electronic microscope image of a reassorted A(H1N1) flu virus
The CDC has confirmed that U.S. cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses – North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe – "an unusually mongrelised mix of genetic sequences."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak#Genetics_and_effects

 

[jreelawg]

From January 1997 until being sworn in as the 21st Secretary of Defense in January 2001, Rumsfeld served as Chairman of Gilead Sciences, Inc. Gilead Sciences is the developer of Tamiflu (Oseltamivir), which is used in the treatment of bird flu.[27]As a result, Rumsfeld's holdings in the company grew significantly when avian flu became a subject of popular anxiety during his later term as Secretary of Defense. Following standard practice, Rumsfeld recused himself from any decisions involving Gilead, and he directed the Pentagon's General Counsel issue instructions outlining what he could and could not be involved in if there were an avian flu pandemic and the Pentagon had to respond.[28][29][30]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Rumsfeld

A lot of people are making money off of a good scare.

 

[ViewsofMars]

World Health Organization lastest update (#6) on Influenza A(H1N1)

30 April 2009 -- The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 17:00 GMT, 30 April 2009, 11 countries have officially reported 257 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.

The United States Government has reported 109 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Mexico has reported 97 confirmed human cases of infection, including seven deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (19), Germany (3), Israel (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (3), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (8).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_30_a/en/index.html

Look at WHO's website for latest updates:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html

 

[Evo]

Apparently the number of cases has gone down according to authorities.

Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova told The Associated Press new cases have leveled off and the death rate has been nearly flat for several days.

The health ministry, which earlier said 168 people were believed killed by swine flu in Mexico, on Thursday would only confirm 12 of those deaths

So they've basically reported deaths from the flu that might not actually be related.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090430/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

Is this going to turn out to be one huge false alarm?

 

[The_Absolute]

About how many casualties are expected from the worst case scenario of this disease?

 

[Evo]

The virus didn't turn out to be that bad. It's thought that the deaths in Mexico were largely attributed to poor medical care and getting care too late, not that the virus was that severe. The fact that cases that were properly treated resulted in the patient recovering quickly seems to support that.

 

[lisab]

I'm not sure if this has already been asked, but guessing by the name of the flu I'm sure it has, if you eat pig products i.e. bacon, or ham, are you more susceptible to getting the swine flu.

I'm kind of paranoid right now as I usually eat a slice of ham or bacon at least twice a week for breakfast.

I heard a CDC scientist say tonight that not one pig has been found to have this virus, anywhere in the world!

So eat your bacon, pork chops, ham, pork roast, or sausage without the slightest worry.

 

[turbo]

I heard a CDC scientist say tonight that not one pig has been found to have this virus, anywhere in the world!

So eat your bacon, pork chops, ham, pork roast, or sausage without the slightest worry.

Is "long pig" a danger? I have a neighbor past her breeding years that may need to be culled.

 

[Ukitake Jyuushirou]

"Genetics and effects


Negative stain electronic microscope image of a reassorted A(H1N1) flu virus
The CDC has confirmed that U.S. cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses – North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe – "an unusually mongrelised mix of genetic sequences."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak#Genetics_and_effects

Interesting, that is unusual. Thanks for the article

 

[Count Iblis]

About how many casualties are expected from the worst case scenario of this disease?

We don't know what a realistic model for a worst case scenario is. In 1918 the flu started in a mild form in spring and went on the decline in the summer. It came back in the fall, killing many people (about 50 million).

But the 1918 flu pandemic may not be the worst case scenario. There are people who claim that the Black Death epidemics of the middle ages were not caused by bubonic plage as most scientist believe, but rather by some virus. Black Death killed 10 to 20 percent of the World's population, so if that were to happen again we are looking at more than a billion deaths.

Even if swine flu turns out to be a pandemic without causing large number of deaths, we are still not safe. The virus could mix with other virusses and then some very deadly virus could arise. Pandemic virusses typically infect about 30% of the World's population, so there is a reasonable chance that someone who is infected with bird flu will also be infected with swine flu. Or perhaps someone in Congo will get Ebola and swine flu. Thing is that in recent decades people are more exposed to rare but deadly virusses like Ebola.

Another factor is that the genetic variation of our species is extremely small compared to other animals. Homo Sapiens went through a population bottleneck about 70,000 years ago. Since the last century the World's population has grown exponentially. There are now 6.5 billion people who are genetically very similar to each other. It could be that this combination of the lack of genetic variation and large population size is unstable in the sense that it would allow a deadly virus to mutate into an even more deadly form.

If you have a small population, then a virus can only spread a few generations before it will have infected everyone (or the entire fraction of the population that is genetically susceptible to the virus). In case of a large population the virus has more generations to go before it will have infected everyone who is susceptible to the virus. Also if everyone in the population is genetically similar then a large fraction of the population can be infected. A new virus can thus go on infecting people who haven't been infected before. It can mutate for many generations and therefore it has more opportunity to mutate into a more deadly form.

 

[lisab]

Is "long pig" a danger? I have a neighbor past her breeding years that may need to be culled.

...hey, there are a lot of PF sisters who are past our breeding years !

 

[DaveC426913]

...hey, there are a lot of PF sisters who are past our breeding years !

I for one will be happy to to make an attempt to prove that wrong. One at a time or in groups.

 

[The_Absolute]

How long do pandemics usually last before they die out?

 

[jreelawg]

"WASHINGTON – A security aide helping with arrangements during President Barack Obama's recent trip to Mexico became sick with flu-like symptoms and three members of his family later contracted probable swine flu, the White House said Thursday."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090430/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_swine_flu;_ylt=ArTgnuu.3SbMA_ZJJ2oPAtYDW7oF

 

[Evo]

We don't know what a realistic model for a worst case scenario is.

I think it's time to put the gloom and doom to bed, it's just not happening.

The medical care available to the public in 1918 is like the dark ages in comparison to what we have now.

It's very likely that other widespread diseases such as TB played an important role in deaths back then.

The flu doesn't kill, it's secondary infections such as pneumonia that kill, and treated early, the prognosis is very good.