Taiga or boreal forests advancing north?

[bobbobwhite]

Anyone know of evidence, to which you can refer me, of boreal forests advancing northward due to global warming, along with animal species using that habitat?

Thanks to all.

 

[CRGreathouse]

Forests, especially boreal forests, move too slowly to react to a trend this short (if, in fact, it is a trend at all!). Watching animals is much more likely to find results.

I have heard anecdotal evidence of animals moving south, but I know of no studies.

I also wonder how this can be done fairly, as there will be relocation of habitat without climate change. How do you properly compare the movement of (presumably many) species slightly southward with (presumably few) species moving slightly northward?

 

[turbo]

Watching the animals can be pretty iffy, too. We sometimes have influxes of Snowy Owls in Maine in winter. That doesn't mean that they are moving this way. They may be coming here because lemmings (their staple food) are in short supply, or they may be coming here because a really good lemming population the previous year(s) ensured successful reproduction and resulted in overcrowding and more competition for territory. Without long-term studies on the ground, we'll never know.

 

[Skyhunter]

Changes in the seasons are a robust line of evidence. Springtime is arriving sooner and autumn departing later all over the globe.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940

 

[Evo]

Changes in the seasons are a robust line of evidence. Springtime is arriving sooner and autumn departing later all over the globe.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940

Apparently you have linked to the wrong source. Your link is about wildfires in the Western US and is an examination of land use, temperature and drought.

What does this have to do with the topic of evidence of forests moving north?

Also, your link does not even support your statement.

 

[Andre]

Moreover it seems reasonable to expect that wild fire occurrence is mainly a function of the amount of tinder and wood, or forests maturing.

Anyway advancing boreal forests to way up north has occurred during the Holocene Thermal Optimum ( http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WPN-45BCR6K-M&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=9504121aa5ba4d90684bd3b49e4d3ce0 )

 

[CRGreathouse]

Watching the animals can be pretty iffy, too.

Ah. In that case forget what I said about animals -- I know much more about plants (well, North American biomes) than about animal migratory patterns.

Moreover it seems reasonable to expect that wild fire occurrence is mainly a function of the amount of tinder and wood, or forests maturing.

Surely in modern times it's primarily a function of human fire suppression? Although I suppose it comes to the same thing -- quashing small fires leads to buildup of wood on the forest floor that allows large fires to occur.

 

[Xnn]

Here is a link to a news story of studies detailing migrations due to climate changes:


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/01/02/tech/main534993.shtml

"The climate scientists have really shown that global warming is happening. What we've found is that it's not only happening but it's having a big impact," she said.

In an analysis of 172 species of plants, birds, butterflies and amphibians, Parmesan found that spring events such as egg-laying or flower-blooming advanced 2.3 days on average each decade.

Her analysis of studies of 99 species of birds, butterflies and alpine herbs in North America and Europe found these species' ranges have shifted northward an average of about 3.8 miles per decade.

Most striking, she said, was the case of the sooty copper, a butterfly common near Barcelona until recent decades. These days, however, residents of the Spanish city must travel about 60 miles north to find this butterfly.

Meanwhile, the sooty copper's northern range, which once ended in Austria, has shifted into Estonia during the past five years, Parmesan said. The insect had previously never been seen in that Baltic nation.

 

[Xnn]

A Sooty Copper...

 

[JorgeLobo]

I'm surprised at the claims of cause. You need to remember that coincidence does not = causality.

 

[bobbobwhite]

Grasslands following forests northward where forests previously dominated is also a sign of global temperature change of whatever origin. Although I am totally convinced of human-related global warming, I am aware that it will take much more data and study for many ever to be convinced, and especially those who have vested personal or business interests in global warming NOT being human-related.

The white man's forest fire suppression, of which I know a lot historically, has created a virtual tinderbox of unburned and everpresent understory fuel that was not present in quantity when native americans were the only residents here. By fire, the natives cleared the forest understory of brush, etc. primarily to allow easy usage of trade routes that crisscrossed America, Canada and Mexico north to south and east to west from coast to coast for milennia before the white man. Found evidence is plentiful that central natives traded for items indigenous only to the east and west coasts and the Gulf of Mexico, for thousands of years. Good trading routes were necessary for business and even survival then, and the natives wanted clear roads everywhere as their very existence depended upon these convenient and efficient trade routes being easily traveled at all times. Also, anyone familar with wildlife management knows that new grass and brush growth following fires has the best and most nutrients that allow larger and more healthy animal populations to thrive on which these natives depended for food. Natives regularly cleared huge areas of forest understory by fire that had no trade routes primarily to improve hunting.

The white man coming here fatally upset previous native life and intertribal trade to extinction, so those forests with vast areas cleared of understory brush rapidly grew over with scrub underbrush that we whites thought had to be allowed to grow unabated, as that is the white man's idea of "natural", with all resultant forest fires suppressed. As a result of what has happened since, the best of these two opposing philosophies is plainly evident to me.

 

[turbo]

The National Audubon Society has released their analysis of the changes in bird ranges over the past 40 years. The birds that extended their ranges northward outnumber by 2:1 those that have spread south, an on average, they have moved north about 40 miles in 40 years. Despite some record cold this year, our winters are getting warmer and have been for ever since I was a kid (longer than the Audubon study). We had no turkey vultures when I was in my teens - now they are ubiquitous. Goldfinches were a rare occurrence in the winter months - now large flocks of 20-30 show up at my feeder every day, and they are accompanied by Pine Siskins and Redpolls - birds that normally showed up in early-to-mid spring. I had attributed some of these appearances to human feeding, micro-climates and changes in habitat, but the Audubon folks believe that the weight of the evidence points to warming as the prime factor. We'll see...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090210/ap_on_sc/birds_global_warming;_ylt=ArNloYzV.a1mC48jJXZJL02s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZWk1YWo2BHBvcwMxMDgEc2VjA2FjY29yZGlvbl9zY2llbmNlBHNsawNzdHVkeWJpcmRzc2g-

 

[Skyhunter]

The National Audubon Society has released their analysis of the changes in bird ranges over the past 40 years. The birds that extended their ranges northward outnumber by 2:1 those that have spread south, an on average, they have moved north about 40 miles in 40 years. Despite some record cold this year, our winters are getting warmer and have been for ever since I was a kid (longer than the Audubon study). We had no turkey vultures when I was in my teens - now they are ubiquitous. Goldfinches were a rare occurrence in the winter months - now large flocks of 20-30 show up at my feeder every day, and they are accompanied by Pine Siskins and Redpolls - birds that normally showed up in early-to-mid spring. I had attributed some of these appearances to human feeding, micro-climates and changes in habitat, but the Audubon folks believe that the weight of the evidence points to warming as the prime factor. We'll see...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090210/ap_on_sc/birds_global_warming;_ylt=ArNloYzV.a1mC48jJXZJL02s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZWk1YWo2BHBvcwMxMDgEc2VjA2FjY29yZGlvbl9zY2llbmNlBHNsawNzdHVkeWJpcmRzc2g-

Here is a the map from the Audubon Society showing migration patterns of the species.

 

[CRGreathouse]

Here is a the map from the Audubon Society showing migration patterns of the species.

Curious. Two-thirds is a big fraction, enough to suggest that something serious is going on with North American climate. But why do they 'cook the books' by showing 20 species moving northward and 0 southward? That's nonrandom with confidence 99.97%.

Edit: they picked the species that moved most -- that explains it.

 

[turbo]

Curious. Two-thirds is a big fraction, enough to suggest that something serious is going on with North American climate. But why do they 'cook the books' by showing 20 species moving northward and 0 southward? That's nonrandom with confidence 99.97%.

They are just showing the 20 species with the most movement over that period, and presumably the species with the most movement are the ones moving north. What is surprising is that it appears to be a national trend. I had only considered Maine, and since we have been getting warmer winters for over 40 years, I was not surprised to see winter accidentals getting more and more common. Also, I have not seen a Boreal Chickadee for years - they are staying in Canada, I guess. Still, weather (as opposed to climate) has an effect. We have had a cold winter so far, and unlike previous winters we have not had a single tufted titmouse at the feeders. Usually, one or two of them would flock with the black-capped chickadees in winter.

 

[turbo]

BTW, I routinely see wild turkeys all winter. Since I live in central Maine, the Audubon chart is badly skewed. Since wild turkeys have been re-introduced to Maine, they have thrived and their winter range has been moving farther north over the last couple of decades. I drove into town to buy some gas today and on the way home, I saw a flock of at least 20 of them in somebody's front yard.

We had a LOT of snow last winter. That didn't slow down the wild turkeys. I shot this from the window in back of my computer, and I was standing at the time.

 

[Evo]

The National Audubon Society has released their analysis of the changes in bird ranges over the past 40 years. The birds that extended their ranges northward outnumber by 2:1 those that have spread south, an on average, they have moved north about 40 miles in 40 years. Despite some record cold this year, our winters are getting warmer and have been for ever since I was a kid (longer than the Audubon study). We had no turkey vultures when I was in my teens - now they are ubiquitous. Goldfinches were a rare occurrence in the winter months - now large flocks of 20-30 show up at my feeder every day, and they are accompanied by Pine Siskins and Redpolls - birds that normally showed up in early-to-mid spring. I had attributed some of these appearances to human feeding, micro-climates and changes in habitat, but the Audubon folks believe that the weight of the evidence points to warming as the prime factor. We'll see...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090210/ap_on_sc/birds_global_warming;_ylt=ArNloYzV.a1mC48jJXZJL02s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZWk1YWo2BHBvcwMxMDgEc2VjA2FjY29yZGlvbl9zY2llbmNlBHNsawNzdHVkeWJpcmRzc2g-

Not unusual, since we know forests existed near the north pole in the past.

http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic43-4-331.pdf

I love that turkey picture!

 

[turbo]

Not unusual, since we know forests existed near the north pole in the past.

http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic43-4-331.pdf

I love that turkey picture!

I'd rather not be shooting though a double-pane Harvey window, but that's the best I could do. Notice that I did not completely crop out the window-frame on the right side, thus thus the fade-out.

 

[Astronuc]

They are just showing the 20 species with the most movement over that period, and presumably the species with the most movement are the ones moving north. What is surprising is that it appears to be a national trend. I had only considered Maine, and since we have been getting warmer winters for over 40 years, I was not surprised to see winter accidentals getting more and more common. Also, I have not seen a Boreal Chickadee for years - they are staying in Canada, I guess. Still, weather (as opposed to climate) has an effect. We have had a cold winter so far, and unlike previous winters we have not had a single tufted titmouse at the feeders. Usually, one or two of them would flock with the black-capped chickadees in winter.

We have chickadees, titmice, goldfinches and pine siskins at our feeders. I was really surprised to see them when it was 20°F outside. I would have thought they would have gone south - NJ, Maryland, Virginia or Carolinas for the winter. We're having a more typical winter this year, otherwise our winters have been warmer.

I've seen a nuthatch and a few purple finches during the last couple of weeks. We have at least one pair each of downy and hairy woodpeckers, and a Melanerpes carolinus (Redbellied woodpecker). The downies and haries prefer the suet, while the Redbellied prefers the seed.

 

[CRGreathouse]

turbo-1: Thanks for pointing that out, I missed that. I edited my post to make it clear. And I love the turkey picture!

 

[turbo]

turbo-1: Thanks for pointing that out, I missed that. I edited my post to make it clear. And I love the turkey picture!

Thanks! That picture was a "grab and go" event. I was doing some research work on the PC and suddenly there was a big flock of turkeys marching by the window. I grabbed a camera and captured a couple of the last hens that passed. BTW, did you notice that Audubon places the northern extent of the goldfinch range in west-central Indiana? That's pretty lame, since I have large flocks of those freeloaders every day at my feeders and I live in central Maine. My feeder holds almost 2 quarts of seeds and I load it with black-oil sunflower seeds twice a day. Right now the chickadees are making late-day raids on those seeds, and a white-breasted nuthatch is loading up on suet.

BTW, I can get chickadees to feed from my hands, and they will land on my shoulder/arm/whatever to wait their turn to jump on my hand and pick out a seed. I have never had a single tufted titmouse do the same, despite the fact that they flock with the 'dees. Once I got the 'dees hand-trained, red-breasted nuthatches started taking seeds from my hands, first just hovering and grabbing them, then perching on a finger and picking through them. Nuthatches are not all equal, though. I have never had a white-breasted nuthatch feed from my hands, and they usually fly off as soon as I go out to fill the feeders.

I can only tell long-term chickadee residents from opportunists by their calls. The chickadees that know me don't fly very far away if I startle them and they chirp and trill at me. The strangers get off to a "safe" distance and launch into the "chickadee" song. The more upset they are, the more times they repeat the "dee, dee...".

 

[Skyhunter]

Not unusual, since we know forests existed near the north pole in the past.

http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic43-4-331.pdf

What is unusual is the rate of migration.

The article you cite notes that the summer temperatures there were ~7C higher than 1990 levels. The Arctic could be that warm again in less than a century. Especially if the Arctic ocean becomes ice free in summer.

Then a few million years from now some intelligent species will marvel at all the fossils of extinct species that perished during the current period of rapid climate shift.

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/PDFs/ACIA_Science_Chapters_Final/ACIA_Ch02_Final.pdf