The more political thread besides Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants scientific one

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

I am posting a link to an article that discusses the magnitude of the Japanese Disaster from the earthquake and tsunami as compared to the public and media focus on the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

We have discussed a lot of aspects of the nuclear issues and politics. In this forum that is totally justified. The article just brings a little balance to the discussion.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/9094430/The-world-has-forgotten-the-real-victims-of-Fukushima.html [Broken]
Balance from the Telegraph , a novel idea. In the UK it is most commonly referred to as the Torygraph , who knows how such an impartial publication acquired such a reputation for bias
 
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NUCENG

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

Balance from the Telegraph , a novel idea. In the UK it is most commonly referred to as the Torygraph , who knows how such an impartial publication acquired such a reputation for bias
Ad Hominem (Argument To The Man): attacking the person instead of attacking his argument. Does their alleged bias make their facts incorrect? Does their reputation or nickname belie their argument? Do you believe the focus of the media has been balanced in terms of the consequences of the earthquake/tsunami compared to the nuclear consequences? Does the fact that this is a "more political" thread mean our posts do't need to raise valid points?
 
Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

But then something odd happened.
Here I fully agree with the author. It was also odd to me that it was so easy to knock out a nuclear power plant.

The rest of the article I will not comment.
 

tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://mainichi.jp/area/ishikawa/news/20120329ddlk17040634000c.html [Broken] On 28 March, Hokuriku Electric Power announced that it started studying the installation on PCV venting equipments of filters that can reduce the dispersion of radioactive substances. The cost and installation schedule are not planned yet but it is planned to install those at Shika NPP units 1 and 2. Filters can reduce radioactive substances to 100,000th. According to Hokuriku Electric Power, whereas French and Swedish NPPs are equipped with such filters, Japanese ones are not. A Hokuriku Electric Power manager said that (as Japan is a seismic country) earthquake resistance is a problem, but he wants to study the possibility to install such filters, using Europe as a reference.

http://www.rikuden.co.jp/press/attach/12032801.pdf Hokuriku Electric Power's press release. See diagram on attachment 3 page 6/6.
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

The English-language executive summary of The Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission was just released a few minutes ago. You can download it from here:

http://naiic.go.jp/en/ [Broken]
I am glad that at long last an official report from a government body makes the following clear statements on the fact that some people died at Fukushima:

http://naiic.go.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/NAIIC_report_lo_res.pdf [Broken] 19/88: "Others were forced to move multiple times, resulting in increased stress and health risks—including deaths among seriously ill patients." (also quoted by the BBC at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18718486 )
http://naiic.go.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/NAIIC_report_lo_res.pdf [Broken] 38/88 : "60 patients died in March from complications related to the evacuation"

because this exposes the denial/forgetfulness by the IAEA, ANS, NRC, WHO, and others:

Saying "To date no health effects have been reported in any person as a result of radiation exposure from the nuclear accident" (http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima/missionsummary010611.pdf [Broken] 3/5) and "The Japanese Government’s longer term response to protect the public, including evacuation, has been impressive and extremely well organized" (http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima/missionsummary010611.pdf [Broken] 4/5), The IAEA's fact finding mission (24 May - 1 June 2011) was very keen on NOT FINDING THE FACTS concerning the deaths.

In a June 28 2011 presentation at the ANS Annual Meeting, F. Caracappa mentioned "Deaths due to earthquake/tsunami: ~25,000 ; Deaths or serious injuries due to direct radiation exposures: 0 ; Cancer deaths due to accumulated radiation exposures: can’t be ruled out –conservative risk estimates ~100s cases, against an expected ~10 million cases" ( http://fukushima.ans.org/inc/docs/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.pdf 27/27) so he was forgetting the deaths by nuclear evacuation of fragile patients.

The NRC Task Force Report of 12 July 2011 said "The outcome—no fatalities" (http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML1118/ML111861807.pdf page iii - 5/96)

In "Preliminary dose estimation from the nuclear accident after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami" (2012), the WHO mentions radiation exposure by the general population, but forgets about the higher exposure of nuclear workers and the non-radiation related deaths:
http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2012/9789241503662_eng.pdf
They don't seem to take the nuclear workers who worked at the plant into account (although their number is 23,000 http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120508/index.html ).
These deaths were not mentioned either in the Japanese government's first and second reports to the IAEA in June 2011 ( http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima/japan-report/ [Broken] ) and September 2011 ( http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima/japan-report2/ ).

They were reported until now only by Japanese news agencies and newspapers and were little reported abroad. See:
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3351282&postcount=314
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3352403&postcount=320
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3352504&postcount=321
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3404481&postcount=408

The NAIIC report's main text contains detailed explanations on this 60 people death toll and the reasons why it happened over 10 pages. It is available in Japanese only for now, on http://naiic.go.jp/pdf/naiic_honpen_honbun4.pdf [Broken] page 380-389 (34/140 - 43/140).
 
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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

Tsutsuji,

If we take into account the certified "disaster-related deaths" the number is over 500.
This from Feb 2012:

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120204003191.htm [Broken]

"A disaster-related death certificate is issued when a death is not directly caused by a tragedy, but by fatigue or the aggravation of a chronic disease due to the disaster....
...A disaster-related death certificate is issued when a death is not directly caused by a tragedy, but by fatigue or the aggravation of a chronic disease due to the disaster."

I believe the number has climbed since then.
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

Tsutsuji,

If we take into account the certified "disaster-related deaths" the number is over 500.
This from Feb 2012:

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120204003191.htm [Broken]
Thanks. For the record, I extract the figures given in this article: "Of the 634 [applications], 573 deaths were certified as disaster-related, 28 applications were rejected, four cases had to reapply because of flawed paperwork, and 29 remain pending."

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201206300051 [Broken] [30 June 2012] [Yukio Edano's exclusive interview with The Asahi Shimbun on June 29] : "From the outset, I have always called (on TEPCO) to disclose (the videos)," Edano said. "I don't understand why they won't do so." (...) "Matsumoto indicated that TEPCO has the right to erase "in-house material" at its own discretion".

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201207110023 [Broken] [11 July 2012] TEPCO to release teleconference videos after all
 
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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

No, I don't think the author meant anything to imply that the reactor accident was not also a "disaster." Just that the focus has been skewed and fear mongering sells news. Being displace is bad. Billions of dollarslost is bad. Depression, suicide, and worries about future health effects are bad, But 20,000 deaths are also bad and unrecoverably permanent.
I cannot comment on the author's intention, but I disagree with the focus having been skewed.

20,000 deaths due to a natural disaster are indeed absolutely horrible, just as is the fate of many, if not all the survivors. Nonetheless, however tragic the casualties are, one has to accept that it happened and move on - although that is not to say to leave the affected people to their own devices or improved disaster relief and city planning should not take place.

By contrast, the Fukushima NPP accident has posed and continues to pose a threat that affects by far more people for generations to come. In addition, the NPP itself as well as the NPP disaster to a large degree were man-made and hence preventable. People have been mistakenly, if not deliberately for reasons of profit led to believe the NPP poses no threat to them, even if a natural disaster occurs.

Personally, I'm all for the media focusing on the more far-reaching, preventable disaster.
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201206300051 [Broken] [30 June 2012] [Yukio Edano's exclusive interview with The Asahi Shimbun on June 29] : "From the outset, I have always called (on TEPCO) to disclose (the videos)," Edano said. "I don't understand why they won't do so." (...) "Matsumoto indicated that TEPCO has the right to erase "in-house material" at its own discretion".

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201207110023 [Broken] [11 July 2012] TEPCO to release teleconference videos after all
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201207310070 [Broken] "However, TEPCO has no plan to review the ban on video and voice recordings and the ban on reporting the names of individuals other than the senior TEPCO officials..."
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120731/index.html On 31 July, the NISA completed a provisional plan establishing criteria for the relocation of the offsite centers, up to 30 km away from nuclear power plants. During the Fukushima nuclear accident, the offsite center, located within the 5 km range from the plant, had not functioned. As a precaution, backup centers located further than 30km will be provided for the case when the main center is not functional. The revision of the offsite centers won't be implemented until after the new regulatory organisation will be launched.
 

tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

Now an article about a number of victims whose deaths might have resulted of the combination of the natural earthquake/tsunami disaster and the man made nuclear accident:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120809/2140_baisho.html A lawyer representing the families of 164 victims from Namie applied on 9 August at the government's conflict resolution center, requesting Tepco a 10 million yen compensation per deceased or missing person, over the charge that as they were forced to evacuate, the families could not rescue their beloved ones, who were victims of the earthquake and tsunami, and the moral suffering of the families associated with the fact that the bodies were not searched and found until one month after the event.
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120906/index.html Tepco is about to reveal the teleconference videos over the 1st month (11 March - 11 April 2011), instead of the first 5 days only. The same restrictive rules apply (journalists only, restrictions on copying, on revealing peoples' names, etc.)


http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201209050060 [Broken] "TEPCO videos: Sans equipment, staff, Fukushima crisis spun out of control"
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120914/0415_josen.html It was found by the NHK that about 3 months after the accident, when the Nuclear Safety Commission started to study the issuance of an advice to reinstate the original inhabitant decontamination criteria, which had been softened immediately after the accident, it faced opposition from the local response headquarters (a national government administration) and from the Fukushima prefecture administration, and postponed the issuance for 3 months. The opposing administrations said things like "if the criteria becomes more severe, too many cars will need decontamination" or "as there are not enough decontamination facilities, people will need to leave [the restricted zone] without their [contaminated] belongings".
 
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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

The opposing administrations said things like "if the criteria becomes more severe, too many cars will need decontamination" or "as there are not enough decontamination facilities, people will need to leave [the restricted zone] without their [contaminated] belongings".[/QUOTE] I don't understand why the local administration would have any sort of say in this. Japan is kinda weird.
 

tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120927/index.html The Cabinet's investigation committee was officially disbanded as of 28 September. As unclear points are remaining, in its final report (1) it said the investigation must go on. It is viewed that the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) will play a central role, but no concrete framework has been decided yet. It is necessary to urgently decide one.

(1) http://icanps.go.jp/eng/final-report.html [Broken] Full English translation now available.
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://naiic.go.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/NAIIC_report_lo_res.pdf [Broken] 19/88: "Others were forced to move multiple times, resulting in increased stress and health risks—including deaths among seriously ill patients." (also quoted by the BBC at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18718486 )
http://naiic.go.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/NAIIC_report_lo_res.pdf [Broken] 38/88 : "60 patients died in March from complications related to the evacuation"
The Cabinet's investigation committee provides two counts of patients confirmed dead upon reaching evacuation destination:


http://icanps.go.jp/eng/05IVfinal.pdf [Broken] Chapter IV, (d) Rescue on March 15, notes 49 and 50, p. 277:

49 A total of 54 patients transported by the integrated mission unit and the 12th Brigade Medical Squadron, after the screening, headed for Fukushima Prefectural Medical University Hospital in private-sector buses arranged by the Prefecture Nuclear Emergency Response Center. As the hospital refused to accept them, the patients were then carried to the Date Fureai Center at around 1:00 on March 16. At the time, two of the patients were confirmed dead.

50 After the screening, these rescued patients were transported to Kasumiga zyo Park and Azuma Sports Park in private-sector buses arranged by the Prefecture Nuclear Emergency Response Center, but five of them were confirmed dead upon arrival there.
 
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Astronuc

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

because this exposes the denial/forgetfulness by the IAEA, ANS, NRC, WHO, and others:
Yes - these organizations (and the industry) lose credibility when they dismiss the deaths of elderly and ill because they had to be evacuated. I don't think a few 100 (or 1000s) latent cancer deaths should be minimized either. Those folks trusted the government and industry to ensure such an accident wouldn't happen.
 

tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20121003/1720_50km.html In its 3 October meeting, the NRA studied a draft revision of nuclear disaster countermeasure guidelines which proposes to expand evacuation zones from 10 km around plants to 30 km, and to plan distribution of iodine pills within the 50 km range. This would put the number of cities and villages included in an evacuation zone from 45 in 15 prefectures to 135 in 21 prefectures. According to the draft, Offsite Centers should be installed within the 30 km range (instead of 20 km), and excluded from the 5 km range, with several backup institutional sites being secured outside the 30 km range and in different directions. The NRA plans to hear the opinions of local governments in its next meeting.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20121003/index.html Fukushima Daiichi will be designated as "Special nuclear facility". While at present the decommissionning work plans are proposed by Tepco and approved by the government, under the new status, it will be possible for the NRA to become involved in the planning of the decomissionning work. NRA president Shun'ichi Tanaka said "In order to secure Fukushima Daiichi's safety, we must be actively involved". The NRA will not only propose action plans for example regarding stable cooling or preventing contamination spreading, but will also give orders to modify or improve the advancement of works or of technical development. During the press conference, president Tanaka said: "While it can be said that the disaster has been brought under control, I am well aware that an accident happened and that it is unstable. I want to secure safety by regulations that look far ahead, toward a 30 year long decommissionning work".
 

tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20121005/index.html In response to a request by news organizations, Tepco is publicly releasing another compilation of the teleconference videos, consisting of 161 sequences put together and edited in order to hide people's names for a total of 6 hours (the raw footage for the 5 first days after the accident consists of 150 hours). In this new video, it is possible to see on 13 March before dawn how plant manager Yoshida is trying to get in touch with the prime minister's office [is it not the other way round, the cabinet's office trying to get in touch with Yoshida ?], revealing interference from outside hampering onsite crisis management. The video also shows the discussions in the night of 14 March about unit 2, where the Tokyo main office says things like "open that valve quickly!", without sufficiently knowing the onsite situation, and being argued in response by Fukushima Daiichi "Will you please stop disturbing ?". The teleconference videos of the first month after the accident will be available to journalists next month at the earliest.

http://sankei.jp.msn.com/life/news/121005/trd12100515460011-n1.htm On 5 October, Economy and Industry minister Yukio Edano said the Kaminoseki nuclear power plant will not be built, in exact application of the "no new NPP construction principle". [ There is a good article on the Kaminoseki NPP project and the debates among the inhabitants here: http://www.japanfocus.org/-Martin-Dusinberre/3805 ]. See also http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20120926p2a00m0na016000c.html [Broken] "The government is planning to urge power companies to voluntarily withdraw plans to build new nuclear power plants whose construction has not started, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano has revealed in an interview with the Mainichi Shimbun."
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-japan-nuclear-idUKBRE89B0XK20121012 "Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco), the operator of the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant, said on Friday it could have dealt better with the plant's meltdowns if broad preparations were taken, reversing the previous management's view that the disaster was unavoidable due to an unexpected force of nature."

http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/2012/1221806_1870.html Press Release (Oct 12,2012) Document Related to the First Nuclear Reform Monitoring Committee Meeting:The attached is a document created by the Nuclear Reform Special Task Force(Naomi Hirose: TEPCO president, director and the chairman of the Nuclear Reform Special Task Force) and used at the first Nuclear Reform Monitoring Committee Meeting.

http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu12_e/images/121012e0101.pdf Fundamental Policy for the Reform of TEPCO Nuclear Power Organization, October 12 2012, (English, 32 pages)

[Is it a coincidence, or is it related to the fact that Junichi Matsumoto, who had been a constant defender of the former view, doesn't seem to appear any longer at press conferences ? ]


2012101121735.jpg

As a change from Mr Ono, today's conference is done by Mr Fukuda (12 October press conference as reported by http://genpatsu-watch.blogspot.com/2012/10/201210121730-1-apdf4.html )

201210111756.jpg

Mr Ono (at October 11 press conference : http://genpatsu-watch.blogspot.com/2012/10/201210111730-1.html )

2012091112007.jpg

Junichi Matsumoto on his last press conference (11 September 2012: http://genpatsu-watch.blogspot.com/2012/09/20129111750.html) he had been doing the press conference spokesman job since April 1 2011.
 
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Astronuc

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

I attended a presentation by Kiyoshi Kurokawa who was chair of NAIIC. I agree with what I heard from him.

He has written some comments and given other talks on the NAIIC report

http://www.kiyoshikurokawa.com/en/2012/10/national-diet-of-japan-fukushima-nuclear-accident-independent-investigation-commission-naiic-10-talk.html

http://www.kiyoshikurokawa.com/en/2012/10/national-diet-of-japan-fukushima-nuclear-accident-independent-investigation-commissionnaiic-9-contin.html

One has to search his blog for the various talks.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/05/japanese-cultural-traits-fukushima-disaster
 

tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://naiic.go.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/NAIIC_report_lo_res.pdf [Broken] 38/88 : "60 patients died in March from complications related to the evacuation"
The full English translation of the Diet's investigation report is now available at: http://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/3856371/naiic.go.jp/en/report/index.html

Here is an exerpt concerning the 60 deaths :

b. The sixty lives that could not be saved
According to our investigation, at least 60 people died in the seven hospitals and in
long-term care health facilities by the end of March 2011. The numbers of hospitalized
patients who died between “the time after the earthquake and before the evacuation”
and the “completion of transferring the hospitalized patients to different hospitals”
were thirty-eight from Futaba Hospital, four from Futaba Kosei Hospital, three from
Imamura Hospital, and three from Nishi Hospital.[56] The people admitted to the longterm
care health facility affiliated with Futaba Hospital evacuated together with the
hospitalized patients in Futaba Hospital, ten of whom died. More than half of the
deceased people were elderly people 65 years or older. It is apparent that Futaba Hospital,
where more than 40 people died by the end of March 2011, experienced the severest
evacuation situation, since it was relatively slow to secure evacuation shelters with
medical equipment and transportation for evacuation; in addition it had a large number
of hospitalized patients.

http://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/3856371/naiic.go.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/NAIIC_Eng_Chapter4_web.pdf page 30/115
One hundred twenty-nine seriously
ill patients were left behind in the hospital,[59] to whom only six medical professionals
at most, including the employees of the adjacent long-term care health facility
affiliated with Futaba Hospital and the doctors who returned to the hospital, provided
medical treatment and nursing care over the three days it took to complete the
evacuation. There were shortages of both daily commodities and medical supplies,
and they only had candles for lighting. Although the doctors provided the best possible
medical treatment they could at that time, four patients died in the hospital by
March 15, 2011.

http://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/3856371/naiic.go.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/NAIIC_Eng_Chapter4_web.pdf page 32/115
Three patients died in the vehicles during the
evacuation and an additional 11 patients died at the high school by early morning the
following day (refer to Figure 4.2.3-3).

http://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/3856371/naiic.go.jp/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/NAIIC_Eng_Chapter4_web.pdf page 33/115
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20121103/index.html Tepco is going to install a new office, called "Fukushima main office", in Fukushima prefecture with a main office function. It will have a 4000 workforce, including hundreds moved from Tokyo, the personnel that has been in charge of compensation payment, and a vice-president-level top management. The purpose is to better reflect the needs of Fukushima prefecture inhabitants and local government bodies, in response to remarks that it had been insufficient.
 
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tsutsuji

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Re: The "more political thread" besides "Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants" scientific

My opinion at this point is that:

People died.

Tepco was not aware of the tsunami threat.

SBO studies, like the 1993 Japanese one were supposed to be "top of the notch" : https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=3943942&highlight=probabilistic#post3943942

Tsunami science is a young science. Nothing comparable with nuclear physics, which is an old, mathematical science, with largely predictable results when given a realistic set of causal predictions.

Almost nobody was really aware that nuclear plants relied on other sciences beyond nuclear physics. Three Miles Island and Chernobyl were nuclear physics gone wrong. Fukushima was not. Fukushima was tsunami science gone wrong.

The November 2010 IAEA-supported Masao Takao presentation, based on the Chile tsunami of 28 February 2010 saying that "we assessed and confirmed the safety of nuclear power plants" http://www.jnes.go.jp/seismic-symposium10/presentationdata/3_sessionB/B-11.pdf [Broken] 24/25 , was wrong.

Even the groups that are most critical about nuclear plants such as Greenpeace didn't care about scientific presentations like the one by Toshiaki Sakai (Tepco) in a public event in Miami in 2006 : http://www.asmedl.org/getabs/servlet/GetabsServlet?prog=normal&id=ASMECP002006042460000069000001&idtype=cvips&gifs=Yes&ref=no [Broken] "we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena".

Yet, regardless the uncertainties about the 869 Jogan tsunami, the Kamtchatka tsunami of 1952 should have been regarded as relevant for Japan. Even non-specialists like you or I should have known about the Kamtchatka tsunami. Everybody should have known about the Kamtchatka tsunami. Everybody should have understood that Japan was just as vulnerable to tsunamis as Kamtchatka.

This was not so difficult to understand. Just look at a map. Just look how similar Japan and Kamtchatka are.
 
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