Understanding Independence in Probability: An Example

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the concept of independence in probability, specifically addressing the condition where P(AB) < P(A)P(B). The example provided involves a coin toss, where A represents the event of obtaining heads and B represents the event of obtaining tails. The confusion arises from the misunderstanding that both events can occur simultaneously, which is impossible; thus, P(AB) equals 0. This clarifies that the product of the individual probabilities does not apply when the events are mutually exclusive.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic probability concepts
  • Familiarity with independent and dependent events
  • Knowledge of mutually exclusive events
  • Basic mathematical operations involving fractions
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the concept of mutually exclusive events in probability
  • Learn about independent events and their properties
  • Explore examples of probability calculations with coin tosses
  • Investigate the implications of conditional probability
USEFUL FOR

Students of probability theory, educators teaching statistics, and anyone seeking to clarify concepts of independence and mutual exclusivity in probability.

mateomy
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The question in my book is posed as:

Find an example in which [itex]P(AB) < P(A)P(B)[/itex].
The answer is given as a coin toss letting A be the event of obtaining heads and B being the even of obtaining tails. I'm confused as to how that's working.

My understanding is no doubt 'off', but I thought it was
[tex] P(\frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{2}) = \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{2}[/tex]
because the probabilities for both are [itex]\frac{1}{2}[/itex]. So they are equivalent at [itex]\frac{1}{4}[/itex]. Clearly I'm incorrect, can someone point out why?

Thanks.
 
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mateomy said:
The question in my book is posed as:

Find an example in which [itex]P(AB) < P(A)P(B)[/itex].
The answer is given as a coin toss letting A be the event of obtaining heads and B being the even of obtaining tails. I'm confused as to how that's working.

My understanding is no doubt 'off', but I thought it was
[tex] P(\frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{2}) = \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{2}[/tex]
because the probabilities for both are [itex]\frac{1}{2}[/itex]. So they are equivalent at [itex]\frac{1}{4}[/itex]. Clearly I'm incorrect, can someone point out why?

Thanks.

AB is shorthand for the cases where A is true AND B is true. Wouldn't it be true that the probability of getting heads AND tails is 0?
 
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That clarifies everything. Thank you.
 

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