What if the swine flu turns out to be the worst pandemic in human history?

[The_Absolute]

Based on what I have read about the swine flu, it could easily mutate into something extremely deadly, or into something less harmful. The Spanish flu of 1918 killed about 100,000,000 people globally. It had the same name (H1N1) as the recent swine flu (H1N1). I am terrified that within the next few years, it could leave more than 1,000,000,000 people dead. The cases worldwide appear to be doubling with each passing day. Is it possible for the entire human population to be infected with this disease? What percentage of them will die? How long does a pandemic virus usually live until it eventually starts to "die down?"

 

[Blenton]

Is it possible for the entire human population to be infected with this disease?

Theres bound to be at least one human on some far away island or isolated underground who wouldn't be infected.

 

[Borek]

Is it possible for the entire human population to be infected with this disease? What percentage of them will die?

100%. Good bye.

There was a similar thread about swine flu and your questions are answered there.

 

[jim mcnamara]

To be fair 'what if' questions like this are speculation at best. In order for a disease to wipe out all humans it would need:

1. 100% fatality rate in all those who contract it. Anything less means the survivors are at least partially immune and will pass the trait on to children. 100% fatal is beyond rare, it only happens in man-made moncultures - vast numbers of genetically identical individuals. Human genetic diversity is at or near an all time high, not an all time low.

2. Assuming number 1 is true, then the period of time when the victim is contagious has to be long, like maybe more than 10 days to allow people to walk into really remote areas. Then die. Most severely fatal diseases like haemorragic fevers, pneumonic black plague, and so on, kill their victims in very short order, often less than 72 hours.

An alternative to this is the situation where the virus becomes windborne and can criculate everywhere on Earth. Windborne virus particles are killed by ambient UV in short order. So for our virus to win completely would require something totally new - a virus with a protein coat that protects it from UV.

3. people everywhere would have to be unaware there is a horrible pandemic looming, so sick strangers would be welcomed into remote villages.

Given that #1 and #2a or #2b happens, what would you do if you lived in Timbuktu, heard horrible pandemic on the radio? Are you going to welcome in people dying of horrible disease? Maybe # 3 is not likely either.

Were you around during the Y2K scare? Same kind of assume-everything-fails logic was going back then. I guess it is fun to contemplate disaster.

You should google 'population bottleneck' and read. Nobody know for sure, but serious consideration has been given to proposing that all humans arose from long period of horrible conditions in sub-saharan Africa. The ideas is: 2000 humans were all there were for perhaps 100+ years. Humans were nearly extinct. We are descended from them.

Another proposed bottleneck is the Toba Catastrophe Theory. Since you seem to like catastrophe try a google for that. It is the proposed near human extinction event from a supervolcano eruption ~70000 you - just like Yellowstone had 600K you - Stanley Ambrose proposed it back in 1998.

Humans have gotten through some really awful things and bounced back into the billions.
I vote for survival. If you are into post-Apocalyptic history - read Barbara Tuchman's ' A Distant Mirror' about the depopulation of Europe in the 1300's And the effects on all phases of human culture.

 

[The_Absolute]

Is there anything both me and my family can do to protect ourselves against this hypothetical apocalypse virus? Should we take as many supplies as possible, get as far away from the city as possible, to some remote location far from any people, and try to hold our own there until the virus has ran it's course and most of the world's population is dead? It could take years, but I have taken into consideration either going into the military, and/or learn to be a survivalist.

 

[CRGreathouse]

Of course as the A/H1N1 virus of interest has essentially none of the required traits, it would be more prudent* to worry about other diseases.

* Do not read as "prudent".

 

[mgb_phys]

Is there anything both me and my family can do to protect ourselves ...get as far away from the city as possible, to some remote location far from any people

If you do, try not to pick a large snow bound hotel - or at least keep your kids out of room 237

 

[russ_watters]

Is there anything both me and my family can do to protect ourselves against this hypothetical apocalypse virus? Should we take as many supplies as possible, get as far away from the city as possible, to some remote location far from any people, and try to hold our own there until the virus has ran it's course and most of the world's population is dead? It could take years, but I have taken into consideration either going into the military, and/or learn to be a survivalist.

Honestly, you'd be better off seeing a psychologist to help prevent this fear from ruining your life than you would be taking such rediculous measures to avoid somthing that doesn't exist.

 

[HeartSoul132]

Is this a joke? Swine flu is literally no different in terms of mortality or damage than the typical seasonal flu that is around yearly. It's already subsided for the most part anyway.

If you really are worried just wash your hands super-often and don't go to super-crowded places.

 

[Moonbear]

Since a bunch of people have already contracted it and survived, they likely have already developed immunity to it now through exposure, as perhaps have those around them who were exposed but did not get sick with it. So, already, we've reduced the likelihood that everyone would contract it at once and die from it. It's probably best to stop getting health information from the popular news media.

Currently, WORLDWIDE, there have been only 70,893 confirmed cases since this strain was identified. Of those, only 311 have died.
http://sharing.govdelivery.com/bulletins/GD/USHHS-7D0C0

Compare that to the seasonal flu that shows up every year:

Worldwide, the annual death toll from the flu is estimated to be between 250,000 and 500,000.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html

So, this current strain of swine flu has not even infected as many people as die from other strains of flu during the normal flu season.

The ONLY thing really significant about this flu is that it is occurring outside the normal flu season, so you can't just totally let your guard down about flu prevention over the summer. But, you probably shouldn't do that anyway, since other illnesses can still be spread year around.

The best way to prevent ANY disease spread is through simple practice of good hygiene. Wash your hands before you eat and after using the restroom. If you're sneezing, cover your mouth and nose with a tissue and dispose of the tissue right away (don't carry around used tissues!) and then wash your hands again. Avoid rubbing your eyes or putting your hands/fingers in your mouth (break the nailbiting habit) and don't pick your nose, since this is the easiest way to introduce bacteria and virii into your body. Don't share cups and utensils with other people. You know, all the basic things they start teaching you in kindergarten.

I would actually caution against OVER washing your hands, though. If you do wash your hands often, use a mild soap. Washing your hands to the point they become dry and chapped only leaves your skin open for other infections, so balance hygiene needs with plain old common sense.

 

[Borek]

Since a bunch of people have already contracted it and survived, they likely have already developed immunity to it now through exposure, as perhaps have those around them who were exposed but did not get sick with it.

Moonie, I have a question that patters on my head for the last few days

Let's assume someone contracts the flu now, and survives.

Let's assume swine flu virus mutates.

What are chances that the person is still immune, at least partially?

Does the current outbreak mean that when the mutated flu hits again later, some will be already immune?

 

[jim mcnamara]

Borek -
There is such a thing as partial immunity. Older people who contracted related influenza strains during some of the long ago flu seasons have shown some partial immunity to swine flu.

Partial immunity == reduced symptoms, less duration of symptoms.

 

[CRGreathouse]

Is this a joke? Swine flu is literally no different in terms of mortality or damage than the typical seasonal flu that is around yearly. It's already subsided for the most part anyway.

I don't know about no different. It seems to be less deadly and less transmissible, but more hardy.

Let's assume someone contracts the flu now, and survives.

Let's assume swine flu virus mutates.

What are chances that the person is still immune, at least partially?

Does the current outbreak mean that when the mutated flu hits again later, some will be already immune?

Of course there is no need to assume the flu mutates -- it's doing that continually.

But yes, people who contract it now are very likely to have at least some immunity to the swine flu. It has been suggested that people who contract it now 'in the wild' will have better immunity (vs. those immunized) to later mutant strains because they will be more similar to those contracted now than those collected early on for the production of vaccines.

So one possible strategy for the paranoid would be to contract the swine flu now rather than risk a (highly unlikely) doomsday version later.

 

[mheslep]

Is there anything both me and my family can do to protect ourselves against this hypothetical apocalypse virus? Should we take as many supplies as possible, get as far away from the city as possible, to some remote location far from any people, and try to hold our own there until the virus has ran it's course and most of the world's population is dead? It could take years, but I have taken into consideration either going into the military, and/or learn to be a survivalist.

Honestly, you'd be better off seeing a psychologist to help prevent this fear from ruining your life than you would be taking such rediculous measures to avoid somthing that doesn't exist.

Yes, or just read XKCD to save the psych fees. New signature candidate:

"More harm has been done by people panicked over societal decline than societal decline ever did"

http://xkcd.com/603/

 

[The_Absolute]

This is a very serious question that deserves a very serious answer. Don't ask me why I am asking this though.

In the United States and elsewhere, are there any plans and preparations underway to physically force the country's entire population to get vaccinated for the swine flu? Will there be severe legal consequences if one refuses to take the vaccine? I heard that some of those vaccines can actually do more harm than good.

 

[CRGreathouse]

In the United States and elsewhere, are there any plans and preparations underway to physically force the country's entire population to get vaccinated for the swine flu? Will there be severe legal consequences if one refuses to take the vaccine?

Not in the US; no.

I heard that some of those vaccines can actually do more harm than good.

What are "those vaccines"?

Generally diseases are orders of magnitude more deadly than their vaccines. You may have a 1e-2 chance of contracting a disease with virulence 1e-2, and the vaccine may have virulence 1e-7. You're a thousand times more likely to die without the vaccine in this example. Of course weighing the cost of the vaccine against a 1e-4 chance of dying is an exercise left for the reader.

 

[russ_watters]

This is a very serious question that deserves a very serious answer.

I gave you a completely serious answer: the others used sarcasm in an attempt to show you just how silly the question is. Maybe you intend it to be serious, but that doesn't make it so.

I heard that some of those vaccines can actually do more harm than good.

Please take a step back and consider just how absurd that statement is.

 

[baywax]

Traffic collisions, auto accidents, road accidents, personal injury collisions, motor vehicle accidents (MVAs), — kill an estimated 1.2 million people worldwide each year, and injure about forty times this number

http://wikicars.org/en/Car_accidents

If there was a vaccine for this, someone would be flogging it through the WHO org or on CNN. But the only vaccine for car accidents is common sense, education and care. Not flashy and not making a lot of money. So we don't get the hype... but, oh my... 372 deaths world wide from a virus of questionable origin... red alert.

 

[Borek]

I heard that some of those vaccines can actually do more harm than good.

Such things are now and then said by people who have never seen kids decimated by infections that are now eliminated by vaccination.

This is sociologically and psychologically interesting, but sad and stupid at the same time.

 

[baywax]

Such things are now and then said by people who have never seen kids decimated by infections that are now eliminated by vaccination.

This is sociologically and psychologically interesting, but sad and stupid at the same time.

Vaccine safety in the United States:

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/

and in Canada

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/ccdr-rmtc/02vol28/dr2809ea.html

 

[Borek]

Vaccine safety in the United States:

Let's face it - no matter how long you will research vaccine safety, it may always happen that someone will get ill because of vaccination. This can't be ruled out. But as CRGreathouse already pointed out, it is all about comparison of probablities - what do I risk during vaccination, what do I risk being not immunized.

 

[baywax]

Let's face it - no matter how long you will research vaccine safety, it may always happen that someone will get ill because of vaccination. This can't be ruled out. But as CRGreathouse already pointed out, it is all about comparison of probablities - what do I risk during vaccination, what do I risk being not immunized.

Depends if you live in a plastic bubble, on a deserted island, or never never land or not. Or, in the case of auto accidents, if you have 16 airbags or none.

It would also appear to depend on how healthy the immune system is. A healthy immune system can do wonders against the polio virus etc... in fact, young children are still developing immunity and they were hard hit during that epidemic. Liken this to the small pox epidemic that practically wiped out the firstnation population in NA. They had absolutely no anti-bodies prepared to fight the small-pox virus.

If anyone noticed, the majority of deaths from this latest viral scare were in Mexico where nutrition and, thus, immunity are lower compared to slightly more affluent nations like the US.

Vaccines aren't the only answer to viral epidemics. But they certainly provide a quick fix and make a quick buck.

 

[Andy Resnick]

It is unconsionable to recommend or advocate that people do not get vaccinated against diseases that have historically decimated whole populations. It is likewise abusive for parents to withold vaccines from their children.

People that use arguments based on "100% safety" are deluded. There is only one 100% guarantee in life- one day you will die.

 

[Borek]

There is only one 100% guarantee in life- one day you will die.

You forgot about taxes.

 

[jim mcnamara]

There are vaccine-deniers. One of the features of the US politcal landscap is that delusional people get equal time expressing their points of view. Delusions are more fun than plain old carefully controlled risks. Delusions get more attention.

US media centers around equal time thing. So does the internet to an unaware surfer.
300K US physicians are 100% behind childhood immunization, but if you google for it about 95% of the sites returned are run by vaccine-deniers. Aspartame gets the same kind of result - the non-science nuts get all the air.

This seems to be true in the on-air media as well. You don't see stories about the FDA asking parents to get their kids vaccinated. But you read/see stories all the time about parents demanding the right to deny vaccinations for their kids. Here in New Mexico they have the legal right to do so.

 

[CRGreathouse]

US media centers around equal time thing. So does the internet to an unaware surfer.
300K US physicians are 100% behind childhood immunization, but if you google for it about 95% of the sites returned are run by vaccine-deniers.

I didn't get any "vaccine-deniers" in the first page of Google results for childhood immunizations: 9 unique pro-vaccine sites and two neutral news articles (mentioning but not advocating or proscribing).

So it may be bad, but not quite that bad.

 

[jim mcnamara]

CR - you are correct - I was wrong. The last time I googled that area was for thimerosal, and got a load of codswaddle. Quite a while ago. There are loads more government sites, CDC.

Thimerosal gives me 4 bogus sites, 2 on autism, and nine good ones. Things are improving. Or search engines are filtering out the junk.

The reverse is true for aspartame - I got 3 "good", 8 bad, and a bunch of google ads on topics like 'why aspartame kills you - all in my new book... ' - eg., the douglassreport.com

I think the CDC et al must be getting the message out - outshout the weirdoes...

Thanks for the correction.

 

[CRGreathouse]

Thanks for the correction.

Thanks for all the followup information! I had no idea there was as much junk out there for aspartame.

 

[Pengwuino]

CR - you are correct - I was wrong. The last time I googled that area was for thimerosal, and got a load of codswaddle. Quite a while ago. There are loads more government sites, CDC.

Thimerosal gives me 4 bogus sites, 2 on autism, and nine good ones. Things are improving. Or search engines are filtering out the junk.

Google has gotten much better. I remember back a few years ago doing searches for various topics that had a lot of cranks behind it and they just outnumbered everything on google. It has to be within the last year or so that they implemented something that really cleared out the junk. I know they've attempted to purge a lot of the exploits that people used in the search algorithms to artificially inflate their page rankings on google.

 

[russ_watters]

Vaccines aren't the only answer to viral epidemics. But they certainly provide a quick fix and make a quick buck.

Vaccines are only part of the puzzle, but they are an absolutely essential part of the puzzle.

 

[Borek]

they implemented something that really cleared out the junk

Trust rank perhaps.

 

[The_Absolute]

You might want to read this...

[crackpot link deleted]

 

[Pengwuino]

You might want to read this...

[crackpot link deleted

Notice the lack of any actual evidence or proof...

 

[russ_watters]

We don't deal in conspiracy theory here. Thread locked.