When is Global Warming Significant?

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on the significance of global warming, particularly in relation to the Permian mass extinction, where a temperature rise of 10°C is noted as potentially catastrophic. The current rate of warming, approximately 0.2°C per decade, aligns with projections linked to human activities, raising concerns about tipping points that could lead to severe ecological consequences. Participants highlight the variability in temperature impacts across different regions and the potential for significant weather-related disasters, such as droughts and floods, which could exacerbate existing ecological challenges. There is skepticism about the ability of species to adapt quickly enough to these changes, emphasizing the urgency of addressing climate change before it becomes too late. Overall, the conversation underscores the complexity of defining when global warming becomes significant and the need for a nuanced understanding of its impacts.
Ivan Seeking
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This number came up regarding the Permian mass extinction

... The combined temperature rise of 10°C is generally accepted as a figure able to cause truly mass extinction...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2002/da yearthdied.shtml

I never realized that the threshold was so low.

The rapid rate of warming since 1976, approximately 0.2*C per decade, is consistent with the projected rate of warming based on human-induced effects.

...PETER D. EWINS; CEO, UK Meteorological Office

DR. JAMES BAKER; Under Secretary, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"
http://www.solcomhouse.com/metnoaa.htm

This also ignores any potential tipping points which could come much sooner.
 
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Earth sciences news on Phys.org
Ivan Seeking said:
I never realized that the threshold was so low.

I've not read the links yet, but I shall shortly. I just thought I'd add something about this figure. When they state figures like these, they generally refer to a global average, where as a more detailed look may see changes much greater than that in some places than others. It is also averaged over the course of a year, and much greater seasonal variability may occur, with more pronounced temperature change between summer and winter for example. The figure of course does not mention the affects it has on the weather- such a temperature change could have numverous and far reaching knock on effects to atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to drought in some places, and flood in others.

I'd also venture that its a bit speculative to simply say that a rise of Xdegrees could cause mass extinction. It would be hard to gague the effects without putting a timescale on it, as species would be capable to some degree at least to adapt to climate change if it happened slowly enough
 
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Before it will appear significant to the doubters, it will be too late to do anything about it.

juju
 
From a PBS program this weekend entitled: "National Geographic's Strange Days on Planet Earth" (The One Degree Factor)
...An entire population of caribou is declining, while other species are pushed to the limits of their physical survival in the oceans.
Even a slight change in temperature is affecting certain species, which in turn effect other species as a part of the food chain.
 
juju said:
Before it will appear significant to the doubters, it will be too late to do anything about it.

juju

I think it's going to end up being like the evolution/creation debate. Half of Florida could be underwater and they'll still be going on about how nothing's conclusive.
 
So let's keep the discussion on topic by discussing which criteria need to be met in order to speak of global warming. Some suggestions:

Are there local geographical areas that are of particular importance; for instance areas that normally have a very stable temperature profile, where a small deviation can be deemed significant.

Can a defined increase in temperature be used to define global warming, or are the temperatures too variable to draw conclusions.

Is there a certain time frame over which temperatures need to measured, after which conclusions can be drawn.

What would be the design of statistical tests to define significant increases in temperature.
 
Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota

Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Nino -Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable inßuence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact. [continued]
http://www.conservationmedicine.org/papers/Harvell%20et%20al.%202002.pdf
 
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When is Global Warming Significant?

when YOUR HOME IS UNDER WATER

here in south Fla we are low and sinking FIRST
avg elevation under 10 feet [my home is on a ridge at 12+ and that's rare]
 
  • #10
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/earth_energy.html
"Scientists have concluded more energy is being absorbed from the sun than is emitted back to space, throwing the Earth's energy "out of balance" and warming the globe."

When it comes to the original question, all changes are significant. How significant is extremely difficult to decide.
 
  • #11
If anything, I find this extremely encouraging. Why? Two reasons:

1) The discovery of fusion will almost certainly lead to a drop and hopefully an eventual halt to human-induced global warming rates. Even if I were to be extremely pessimistic and say that it's going to take us 100 years to get it working, your quoted rate leads only to a 2 degree rise in temperature, well below the quoted mass extinction level.

2) From what I've heard, humans have already induced a large number of extinctions by way of habitat destruction, hunting, etc. Although I'm never one to celebrate the loss of any life, it seems as if the combined effects of global warming might pale in comparison.

Of course, point 1 assumes that warming rates remain constant, something which is hard to be sure of from either the climatological or sociological standpoint. Even so, however, it seems like there's still quite a lot of breathing room.
 
  • #12
SpaceTiger said:
1) The discovery of fusion will almost certainly lead to a drop and hopefully an eventual halt to human-induced global warming rates.
How about the discovery of fission?
 
  • #13
hitssquad said:
How about the discovery of fission?

Are you nitpicking my wording or being serious? In any case, for those who aren't sure, I'm referring to the use of fusion for power generation, not its discovery as a phenomenon.
 
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  • #14
SpaceTiger said:
I'm referring to the use of fusion for power generation
What advantages might it have over fission?
 
  • #15
hitssquad said:
What advantages might it have over fission?

I think http://www.pppl.gov/fusion_basics/pages/fusion_advantages.html sums it up pretty well.
 
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  • #16
No High-level Nuclear Waste
Similarly, there will be no fission products formed to present a handling and disposal problem. Radioactivity will be produced by neutrons interacting with the reactor structure, but careful materials selection is expected to minimize the handling and ultimate disposal of activated materials.
Remember the caveat!

First of all, we do not yet have a feasible commercial reactor design, so one cannot for now minimize this issue.

As for an accident, the radiological inventory of a fusion reactor certainly appears much less than a typical commercial reactor. On the other hand, after 20 years in the nuclear industry, I hesitate to minimize the issue.

===============================

But this thread is about global warming, specifically "When is Global Warming Significant?". Well it could be significant now - given all the weather related disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes, floods etc that have happened during the last decade. Then consider the droughts and continued desertification in various parts of the world.

Warm weather also allows for more undesirable insects like mosquitos to thrive. I think Ivan's last post is particularly relevant and disconcerting.
 
  • #17
Astronuc said:
As for an accident, the radiological inventory of a fusion reactor certainly appears much less than a typical commercial reactor. On the other hand, after 20 years in the nuclear industry, I hesitate to minimize the issue.

Perhaps this should be a separate thread, but I'm curious about your viewpoint on the safety of nuclear power. Do you think the public is being overly paranoid or do you think the concerns are well justified? I'm not familiar enough with the current safety standards to have a strong opinion on it.
 
  • #18
SpaceTiger said:
Perhaps this should be a separate thread, but I'm curious about your viewpoint on the safety of nuclear power. Do you think the public is being overly paranoid or do you think the concerns are well justified? I'm not familiar enough with the current safety standards to have a strong opinion on it.
It would appear so far that commercial nuclear power is generally safe, with the exception of Chernobyl.

I don't think the general public really understands nuclear power, and for that matter, the general public does really understand most technology.

I simply hesitate to minimize the safety issue. Not long ago, the folks at Davis Besse found that some of the carbon steel pressure vessel head had corroded away, and only a 3/8" stainless steel liner was holding back 2230 psi of reactor coolant water. Had that failed, then we would have had a LOCA event, and then we would have found out how well the safety systems would perform, how well the training prepared everyone involved, and how well the containment would have confined the problem.

http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/ops-experience/vessel-head-degradation.html

I should point out that the plant personnel were aware of a leak and had planned to inpsect the head. Ideally, they should have inspected more thoroughly during the previous refueling outage, but there was a lot of pressure to get the plant back online.

As for fusion reactors, I am not sure how to assess the radiological hazard or an accident scenario. I was trying to think back a couple of decades to the concepts that were proposed and what type of accidents might be of concern, such as a confinement magnet failing and the consequences of such a failure.

I had ordered two books on Fusion Research, but the order was canceled so I will have to look elsewhere for some system designs.

Current nuclear plants have safety systems, such as Emergency Core Cooling Systems (ECCS). Then there are the structure like the containment building, which is designed to withstand postulated accidents.

Then as part of the operation, there is training of personnel, and there are periodic inspections and testing of various systems, much more than was the case when TMI happened, and all as a result of TMI.

Is that enough? Probably. Nevertheless, I simply hesitate to dismiss safety concerns.
 
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  • #19
Astronuc said:
Is that enough? Probably. Nevertheless, I simply hesitate to dismiss safety concerns.

Oh yes, that was very interesting, thank you.
 
  • #20
Oops. SpaceTiger, please excuse me, but when I wrote, "It that enough?", I was referring to the steps taken to ensure safety in commercial nuclear plants:

Current nuclear plants have safety systems, such as Emergency Core Cooling Systems (ECCS). Then there are the structure like the containment building, which is designed to withstand postulated accidents.

Then as part of the operation, there is training of personnel, and there are periodic inspections and testing of various systems, much more than was the case when TMI happened, and all as a result of TMI.

Otherwise, I would have addressed you directly with something like, "Have I answered your question to your satisfaction?"

The key question is - "Has the nuclear industry, specifically the operating utilities, suppliers of the technology and regulators done enough to ensure the safe operation of nuclear power plants?". Obviously, those opposed to nuclear will power will summarily argue, NO. Proponents will argue, YES.

If one argues, YES, then one can ask, "How do know that operating power plants are safe?" Simply saying the event at TMI-2 did not result in harm to the public (other than severe emotional distress for a lot of folks) is not enough to prove that nuclear power is inherently safe, or that other plants are not at risk for a catastrophic event that may compromise the safety of the plant personnel or public.

We demonstrate safety by a sustained program of inspection and training, and monitoring the performance of materials and systems during operation.

Take for example the steam generators (SGs) in many PWRs. The principal material for SG tubing was Inconel 600. The SGs and the tubes were designed with the intent of operating for the lifetime of the plant (40 yrs). However, in the mid 1980's, the rate of failure of SG tubing started to increase, particularly in high temperature PWRs (Thot > ~ 320°C). The Inconel 600 tubing was failing after about 15-20 years, and many PWRs have had to replace the SGs, at costs on the order of $50-100 million/SG. The safety issue was related to the reactor coolant (with some level of radioactivity) escaping from the primary system and entering the secondary system.

On the BWR side, cracks were found in certain internal structures that were supposed to operate for the life of the plant. The cracks were caused by Intergranular Stress Corrosion Cracking (IGSCC), which was related to the electrochemical potential (ECP) and oxygen potential of the reactor coolant environment in which the stainless steel components were operating. Remedial steps have been taken to address this issue.

Many plants still have years, and in some cases decades of operation, even without the industry trend to 'extend' operation of many plants to 60 years. The major issue is "can we ensure 'safe' and reliable operation?"

I am hopeful, but cautious.

========================

Now, the question of this thread, is when is Global Warming Significant? Well, if Global Warming is now the cause of more floods and storms that cause an increase in destruction of property and loss of life, and drought, then it would seem that it is significant now.

There are two questions however:

1) What is the precise cause of global warming - a) is it a natural process? or b) is it due to man-made greenhouse gases?

2) If global warming is a 'significant' problem, what steps 'must' be taken to mitigate / remediate the problem.
 
  • #21
Astronuc said:
Oops. SpaceTiger, please excuse me, but when I wrote, "It that enough?", I was referring to the steps taken to ensure safety in commercial nuclear plants

Ah yes, sorry. I'm a bit sleep deprived. :-p
 
  • #22
With that diversion, come back on topic.
Bjørn Bæverfjord said:
When it comes to the original question, all changes are significant. How significant is extremely difficult to decide.
I don't see how all changes are significant: you first need to establish what range is normal.
 
  • #23
What about now? Well consider -

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20050505/ts_usatoday/fruitfarmswitheringinnorthwestdrought
By John Ritter, USA TODAY
Thu May 5, 6:15 AM ET

To farmers like Ric Valicoff, the economics of drought are depressingly familiar. Four dry years in the past 13 have scorched their balance sheets and got them wondering whether there's something to the global warming hype.

Growers here in apple country are scrambling to find alternative water supplies as a drought that has eased in much of the West lingers in the Pacific Northwest. Even Seattle, capital of wet, urged residents last month to conserve water in case of summer shortages.

"We're all making tough decisions," Valicoff says. "There won't be much of a bottom line this year if you've been following apple prices." He and 1,400 other farmers in the Yakima Valley's Roza Irrigation District will get about a third of their normal water quota.
Is this due to Global Warming? Maybe, maybe not. Is it just random?
 
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  • #24
Astronuc said:
What about now? Well consider -

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20050505/ts_usatoday/fruitfarmswitheringinnorthwestdrought
By John Ritter, USA TODAY
Thu May 5, 6:15 AM ET

Is this due to Global Warming? Maybe, maybe not. Is it just random?

That's the problem. AFAIK, there is no way to tell; and there won't be. We can only say whether or not observations are consisted with the weather models; and apparently they are so far. I also heard recent reports of signficant reductions in the flow of the deep ocean currents. I don't know yet if this is an early unsubstantiated report, or an established fact. But this is certainly one thing to watch.
http://www.firstscience.com/site/articles/gribbin.asp
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/08/980814064519.htm
http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/climatechange_wef.html
 
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  • #25
Ivan Seeking said:
I also heard recent reports of signficant reductions in the flow of the deep ocean currents.
Since when have they been measuring deep ocean currents?
 
  • #26
I don't know.

I don't know yet if this is an early unsubstantiated report, or an established fact. But this is certainly one thing to watch.

This may be related to some recent ocean surveys, but I only know for now what I heard as a news report. I will post anything that I find. Maybe someone else knows about this?
 
  • #27
Ivan Seeking said:
I don't know.
So how significant is the finding, I would take the guess that technology has not been around too long to be able to measure such currents. If you don't know what the background is, you can't interpret the data.
 
  • #28
Monique, I mentioned it as something to look into. You are debunking a clam that hasn't even been made. Your bias is painfully obvious.
 
  • #29
I also suggest that the US Navy [Submarines] probably know quite a bit about deep ocean currents.
 
  • #30
Ivan Seeking said:
Monique, I mentioned it as something to look into. You are debunking a clam that hasn't even been made. Your bias is painfully obvious.
The topic of discussion is about what is significant, excuse me for addressing it.
 
  • #31


Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
Columbia University Record - VOL. 23, NO. 11 DECEMBER 5, 1997

On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases—an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.
Some background -
Ocean Currents and Climate

Deep Water Circulation

Presumably some institutions (e.g. Columbia, USC, Scripps, etc) are measuring the variables such as temperature, salinity, flow, etc in order to determine if the Conveyor system is being undermined (?)
 
  • #32
About ocean currents, the notion of a slowing conveyor belt is not that new. Another idea is the heat storage capacity of the oceans and the long delay caused by the deep circulation in which case the current warming of the ocean is all about natural cycles and nothing about human influence. But whatever the cause of warming is, there may or may not be some significant impact.

Incidentely, someone said:
Your bias is painfully obvious.

I assume that it is an 'ad hominem' to point out that this is an 'ad hominem'. So I'll limit myself to the observation that it appears to be difficult to see any significance of this statement to the current topic.
 
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  • #33
But then again, how much have the oceans warmed?

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf

During 1955–1998 world ocean heat content (0–3000 m) increased 14.5 10^22 J corresponding to a mean temperature increase of 0.037C.

That's a staggering ~0,1C per century. That way it takes another ten millenia (linear extrapolation) before global warming is getting significant.

I wonder why I'm debunking the 7-10 degrees warming-per-decade myth of the ice ages in the other thread.
 
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  • #34
If global temperature(s) continues to rise, does that mean that the troposphere will contain more water vapor?
 
  • #35
I'm afraid that this question is off topic in this thread. But if you start another one we could analyse the different assessments of the role of water vapor on the climate.
 
  • #36
Hi,

A quote from:

http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=4595

"Gulf Stream Scientists from Cambridge University have confirmed that the Gulf Stream is weakening, and this is likely to bring much colder temperatures to Europe within a few years. The weakening is significant: the Gulf Stream is flowing at a quarter of the strength that was present five years ago. This is happening because gigantic chimneys of cold water that were sinking from the surface to the sea bed off Greenland have disappeared."

Just saw this today and thought I'd pass it along.

juju
 
  • #37
Hi Juju,
Thanks for the link. Unfortunately [or perhaps fortunately] this is not a reliable source. I didn't see the original source listed - the Scientists from Cambridge or the paper.
 
  • #38
I want to stress that the motivation for this thread is to discuss the implications of GW, i.e. when is warming significant. This is not a debate about if its happening, or even why.
 
  • #39
After reviewing this thread I can see where there might have been a misunderstanding. So I will assume that the error is mine and hereby apologize to Monique. We had a bit of a spat about all of this, but I can see that we are seeking the middle ground. Thank you.
 
  • #40
Part of the problem of determining when GW is significant is being able to determine that a particular problem can be causally associated with GW.

For instance, in my area, the weather has been wacky the last 15 years. We have had records in drought, temperature highs and low, rain, snow - but does any of have to do with GW?

We had a very dry period a couple of years ago and the crops in the area suffered. That was followed by a very wet fall and more precipitation in the winter. But how can one attribute it to GW.

We have had some flooding problems, but can that be ascribed to GW.

How does one determine that a weather system or a trend is the result of GW?

I suppose if Earth's winds became hurricane force on a regular basis, we might say that we have a problem, but then it would rather late.

Perhaps remedial steps should be taken now, regardless of the cause.

It takes seconds to cut down a tree, but 30-50 years to grow it back.
 
  • #41
Astronuc said:
Part of the problem of determining when GW is significant is being able to determine that a particular problem can be causally associated with GW.

Well, I am trying to look at this the other way around and ask: Are the observed changes consistent the predictions of the best models, or is this almost certainly a transient condition? Then if this is consistent with expectations, what should we expect next, how soon, and what should be or even can be done. I would also think that landmarks could identified. For example, if we see events x, y, and z, this suggests that certain actions should be taken. Here is a specific example. I talked with my sister yesterday. In the Sacramento area where she lives, they had yet another tornado warning. This is historically unusual by human standards, but it may or may not be in terms of climate cycles and the normal aberrations. So, is this a fluke, or is this expected rarely but always, or do GW models suggest that an increase in tornadic activity in the Sacramento valley is a reasonable to expect, even in the short term. If this is almost certainly a complete fluke, then no bid deal. But if this is expected based on GW models and given today's [this decade's] conditions, then it may be reasonable to promote public education about what to do if a tornado warning is issued.
 
  • #42
Concerning modelling global warming, it might be a good idea to review how the idea of "global warming" has emerged. http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-56/iss-8/p30.html gives an excellent overview; it all boils down to the dramatic simultaneous changes in geologic proxies at the end of the last Ice age, known as the boundaries between "the Last Glacial Maximum", the "Bolling Allerod event", the "Younger Dryas" and the "Preboreal", with assumed temperature fluctuations of ~10 degrees C within less than a decade, both up and down. As long as this behavior is "not understood" it seems correct to have sincere considerations for climate changes.

it would be interesting to see if models could "retro-dict" what caused those dramatic palaeo climatic changes and how we would know when another dramatic decade would start yet again.

There is also the possibility that those decades are something completely different.
 
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  • #43
I tend to take a backwards-looking approach because it is most foolproof: take things like that 4 droughts in 13 years and compare it statistically to the previous 13 years, and the previous, and the previous, etc. Take a large enough sample over a long enough time and trends become clear.

There are, of course, three problems (at least) with this approach:

1. If its already happened, its too late to prevent it (though you can maybe keep it from getting worse).
2. This approach requires a lot of data over a long period of time and a good baseline for some such data does not exist.
3. It doesn't tell us anything about causality. But hey - at least we'll know what is happening, if not why.
 
  • #44
juju said:
Hi,

A quote from:

http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=4595
to the sea bed off Greenland have disappeared."

Just saw this today and thought I'd pass it along.

juju

Scientists now have evidence that changes are occurring in the Gulf Stream, the warm and powerful ocean current that tempers the western European climate... Cambridge University ocean physics professor Peter Wadhams points to changes in the waters of the Greenland Sea. Historically, large columns of very cold, dense water in the Greenland Sea, known as "chimneys," sink from the surface of the ocean to about 9,000 feet below to the seabed. As that water sinks, it interacts with the warm Gulf Stream current flowing from the south.

But Wadhams says the number of these "chimneys" has dropped from about a dozen to just two. [continued]
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/05/10/gulfstream/
 
  • #45
It may be not that certain if that's significant of global warming. Let me give the opinion of a British specialist http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=20974&posts=11 on this subject:

He's not said that the GS or that entire NADW has reduced by 75% just that one zone,(not the biggest) has reduced. I think this also goes back to findings from 2004.
No Scientific paper has been published on it, simply because the science is not good enough. These Columns are very variable at best and flucatuate on a seasonal basis.
The initial investigation to find 12 Columns was I believe back in the 70's or 80's and the 2 columns back in 90's or early this decade.
It's quite possible that the 12 Columns was a vast over estimate or that the 2 columns was an understatement as extra columns formed further North.

IMO the Times very belatedly picked this up, with a science editor who wanted a story that just does not exist.

THE GS is very strong if a bit straggly at the moment and I believe that NADW production is running very hard at the moment.

IF NAD Shut off were to occur it would be through overload of the NADW production not through Ice melt freshwater impact.

edit: NADW is North Atlantic Deep Water, GS = Gulf Stream

And then again. What is cause and what is effect? As somebody else remarked. Suppose that for some reason the down flow of the water is blocked, then the shear inertia of the Gulf Stream would continue to push water towards the area and if that relatively warm water can't go down it must continue northwards causing the warming of the pole.

So what is cause and what is effect?
 
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  • #46
Andre, if the Earth is warming, be it a natural cycle or due to increased solar activity, or caused by humans, what effects do you think will be significant to humans, and how soon.
 
  • #47
Well perhaps a change in the http://www.newmediastudio.org/DataDiscovery/Hurr_ED_Center/Easterly_Waves/Trade_Winds/Trade_Winds.html .

When global warming was to be due to increased solar output, you would perhaps expect a pretty even rate of warming simultaneously but this would increase the temperature difference between pole and equator, therefore you would expect perhaps a stronger hadley cell activity, consequently an increase of atmospheric interaction, with perhaps more severe weather.

If increased greenhouse gas forcing was to be the main cause, the cooling of the Earth would be slowing down. That would probably be most notable in areas with high extreme temperature differences like deserts, in the down draft areas of the hadley cells. The lesser cooling would counteract the downdrafts, so the hadley cell activity would weaken. Less downdraft also means less aridity and deserts could get some more precipitation.

But this is most speculative and a lot of secundary effects could spoil those neat hypotheses.
 
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  • #48
Andre said:
If increased greenhouse gas forcing was to be the main cause, the cooling of the Earth would be slowing down. That would probably be most notable in areas with high extreme temperature differences like deserts, in the down draft areas of the hadley cells. The lesser cooling would counteract the downdrafts, so the hadley cell activity would weaken. Less downdraft also means less aridity and deserts could get some more precipitation.


Forgive me if i´m wrong but isn´t the current situation one of increasing aridity and growing deserts?
 
  • #49
I would tend to have that impression too which could point to scenario one (stronger solar input - stronger hadley cells). However you will find that some global warming / IPCC are predicting more precipitation - (due to weakening hadley cells?)
 

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