News Where are the jobs? Perhaps they exist.

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The discussion highlights a significant skills mismatch in the job market, where millions of job openings exist, but many unemployed individuals lack the necessary qualifications to fill them. Bill Clinton emphasizes that over 10 million people are unable to relocate for work due to financial constraints, further complicating the employment situation. The conversation also touches on the concept of a "workerless recovery," suggesting that while jobs are available, they often do not align with the skills of the unemployed. Critics argue that the unemployment rate does not accurately reflect the number of people out of work, as many discouraged workers have exited the labor force. Overall, the dialogue underscores the need for targeted training programs to bridge the skills gap and improve employment rates.
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I thought this was quite interesting. According to this and other reports seen, we should have the employment rate Obama had hoped for. Apparently this informaton came out in the latest jobs report.

[Bill Clinton] For the first time in my lifetime, David, we are coming out of recession with posted job openings. That is, tomorrow, Monday, you could get that job. These jobs have been offered. They're going up twice as fast as job hires in this horrible economy. Why? Because of two things. First, over 10 million of our fellow citizens are living in homes that are worth less than their mortgages, so they can't move or their credit's ruined for life. We still need more efforts to fix that. And second, way the biggest problem, is there's a skills mismatch. The jobs that are being opened don't have qualified people applying for them. We need a system to immediately train them to move into that job. And I hope we'll have some commitments coming out on that. There are five million people who could go to work tomorrow if they were trained to do the jobs that are open, and the unemployment rate in America would immediately drop from 9.6 to about 7 percent or 6.9. That would have a huge impact on America's psyche. That would happen if no bank makes another loan, if none of this other stuff goes on...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39235412/ns/meet_the_press-transcripts/
 
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I don't know how to clean sewers. :cry:
 
Somewhat related, Stephen Colbert appeared before a House committee today, to testify about his one day of experience as a farmworker. This was a tongue-in-cheek answer to a challenge by immigrant farmworkers to come and take their jobs. The farm worker's representitive said on the Colbert show that so far, they have had 16 takers.

SAN FRANCISCO — In a tongue-in-cheek call for immigration reform, farm workers are teaming up with comedian Stephen Colbert to challenge unemployed Americans: Come on, take our jobs.

Farm workers are tired of being blamed by politicians and anti-immigrant activists for taking work that should go to Americans and dragging down the economy, said Arturo Rodriguez, the president of the United Farm Workers of America.

So the group is encouraging the unemployed — and any Washington pundits or anti-immigrant activists who want to join them — to apply for the some of thousands of agricultural jobs being posted with state agencies as harvest season begins.

All applicants need to do is fill out an online form under the banner "I want to be a farm worker" at www.takeourjobs.org, and experienced field hands will train them and connect them to farms...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37906555/

Colbert stated that he never wants to do that again. Now, just the sight of a salad bar causes him to break out in a cold sweat. :smile:
 
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Evo said:
I don't know how to clean sewers. :cry:

We would be in pretty bad shape if no one did.

I assume that you are implying that this is a needed skill with no takers? Is this just wild speculation or is it rooted in fact?

Labor jobs have been some of the hardest hit. People with more advanced skills and more education have done far better.
 
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It's difficult for older people who lost their jobs to learn new skills.
 
I am highly skilled, trained, and experienced. There are jobs in the region and I can get one tomorrow if I chose to. I don't want to. I've had enough with the b.s. and I'm going to finish my BS degree and intern around, let someone else do this blue collar job. I've been kicked around for no good reason by the private companies, and they can suck it.
 
ThomasT said:
What's your point, Ivan?

That some of the discrepancy between the predicted unemployment rate post-stimulus and the current rates can be accounted for as an unaccounted mismatch in skill-sets between available positions and viable workers? I thought that was clear?
 
Hepth said:
That some of the discrepancy between the predicted unemployment rate post-stimulus and the current rates can be accounted for as an unaccounted mismatch in skill-sets between available positions and viable workers? I thought that was clear?
Ok, so some of the discrepancy is going to be accounted for by referring to something that can't be accounted for. I'm sorry, what am I missing here?
 
  • #10
So how many unfilled job openings usually exist? And what kind? This doesn't pass the smell test.
 
  • #11
Hepth said:
That some of the discrepancy between the predicted unemployment rate post-stimulus and the current rates can be accounted for as an unaccounted mismatch in skill-sets between available positions and viable workers? I thought that was clear?

I always thought that all politicians are well aware of structural/frictional unemployment, and that they cannot eliminate them.
 
  • #12
Most of the open jobs up here are telemarketing positions that require little training, and sales openings that will leave the successful applicants under-employed (or badly under-paid) until consumer demand turns around. The jobs that require specialized training/certification like education and healthcare positions can form a longer-term backlog demand. It takes a while to get someone through nursing school and come out with an LPN or RN certification - longer if specialization is required. Still, there are not many jobs going begging here. In today's paper (Saturday is a good day to post openings), there is less than a column and a half of ads, and several of those ads are quite lengthy, so the total number of openings is quite small.
 
  • #13
That is the complaint I've typically heard; that new jobs aren't as good as lost jobs. Clinton is claiming the opposite.
 
  • #14
Time and time again we have been told that many of the jobs lost are never coming back. This has been a part of Obama's message all along. We have to build a new industrial base. It's makes perfect sense that there would be a skills mismatch if the old jobs have to be replaced with entirely new ones. This in turn is driven by globalization, our corporate tax policies, and the cost of energy, not Obamanomics. [Note that high energy prices help to spur domestic manufacturing as some imports become less competitive]

I don't know how significant the mobility issue is, but it does make sense that many people are not in a position to sell their house and move to where the jobs are found. This is not normally a contraint during an economic recovery.

So the implication is that this is not a jobless recovery, it is a workerless recovery. This in turn may also be putting downward pressure on the GDP and sales. Five million jobs not filled are five million salaries not spent.
 
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  • #15
russ_watters said:
That is the complaint I've typically heard; that new jobs aren't as good as lost jobs. Clinton is claiming the opposite.

Clinton has a job.
 
  • #16
Well the unemployment rate is not an accurate metric for measuing the total number of people out of work.

There are many things that will reduce the unemployment rate without creating any jobs.

The real challenge in our economy is that most of the jobs are service based, and until the general economic conditions improve we will not see job growth. Or eventually we will adjust to the changes in the demand curves.

The population distribution has created a permenent contraction in several sectors of the economy.

The real issue is not job skills. And there are jobs, but how many software engineers or people with advanced degrees want to work at Home Depot, or work on a trash truck.
It is the middle class and white collar jobs that have been decimated and they are the driving force of the economy.
 
  • #17
This is complete nonsense, and easily verifiable using the BLS JOLTS report.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

As of July, 2010 there were 3 million "open" jobs in the United States. The unemployment rate is approximately 14 million people (not including the marginal unemployed, underemployed, and part-time employed for economic reasons).

Thats approximately 5 job seekers per open job, and 3 million, not 5, who could "go to work tomorrow" if they could be matched with a suitable open position.

Bill seems to be implying that the only reason these positions are "open" is because no trained unemployed person can be found to fill it. This too is nonsense. Approximately 1/3 of the open positions are in technically non-skilled (non-professional) sectors, construction, manufacturing, retail, and lesiure & hospitality. Theoretically, anybody could do these jobs, with minimal training. The other 2/3 are technically skilled (professional) sectors, healthcare, business, professional services, education. This analysis excludes the public sector.

So Bill Clinton is seriously suggesting we cannot find 2 million qualified candidates in the 14 million directly unemployed?

Nonsense. It isn't a question of "skill set"; due to labor market inefficiencies there are always job openings as recruiters and job seekers try to find their respective best matches. The problem is that the number of job creations (opened and filled) is often below the rate of replacement (more jobs eliminated than created) and always below the rate of population growth. The only reason the unemployment rate isn't growing is that discouraged workers are leaving the labor force. In 2006, there were 4.8 million discouraged workers in the United States. This year, the average is around 6 million. Thats a growth of 25% in 4 years. Over the prior 6 years, the same figure grew by just 11%.

Note that population growth rate in the United States is about 1%/year, so real growth rates in the number of job-seekers not in the labor force is nominal minus 1. That gives us less than 1% growth rate between 2000-2006, versus a greater than 5% growth rate for 2006-2010.

These discouraged workers are the technical class most likely to meet Bill's hypothesis - efficiently task-trained workers unwilling to learn new skill sets but unable to find work in old positions due to the permanent removal of production capacity from the economy. This metric is therefore quite useful for measuring long-term economic harm done by a recession. The 2001 tech bubble probably didn't permanently remove much production capacity, because the number of discouraged workers stopped falling but didn't grow, either. On the other hand, this most recession cause a return to peak levels last observed in 1994, before the tech boom restructured a large chunk of the US domestic ecoonmy, probably reflecting a permanent loss of jobs in the financial services sector.
 
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  • #18
mugaliens said:
Clinton has a job.
Clinton and Bush have decent pensions. :rolleyes:
http://www.ipl.org/div/farq/pensionFARQ.html
The retirement benefits received by former Presidents include a pension, Secret Service protection, and reimbursements for staff, travel, mail, and office expenses. The Presidential pension is not a fixed amount, rather it matches the current salary of Cabinet members (or Executive Level I personnel), which is $191,300/year as of March, 2008 (but see "Salary Info" section above for advice on how to track increases in this figure).
They can get huge speaking fees too. :rolleyes:
 
  • #19
Not to mention book advances.
 
  • #20
talk2glenn said:
This is complete nonsense, and easily verifiable using the BLS JOLTS report.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

As of July, 2010 there were 3 million "open" jobs in the United States. The unemployment rate is approximately 14 million people (not including the marginal unemployed, underemployed, and part-time employed for economic reasons).

You are citing a jobs report from July. Clinton was resonding to the one that came out last week. All that you have shown is that we have added 2 million unfilled jobs to the market since July.

Big surprise, we need skilled and unskilled labor, as well as college grads. If we have people to fill these 5 million jobs, and we must if we have 9.6% unemployment, then clearly we have a problem with the people trying to fill these jobs.

Many people in the trades make as much or more more than most scientists. If the objection is that industry is outsourcing good jobs, you can hardly blame Obama. Welcome to a global economy. Obama has longed to increase taxes on companies that outsource our jobs. Do we have any supporters? No doubt the Republicans would do their best to block any such effort.
 
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  • #21
There are people in Maine that have been unemployed or underemployed for years. With the collapse of the housing industry, the lumber industry disappeared practically overnight, along with the equipment operators, wood harvesters, skidder operators, truck drivers, etc, etc, that are necessary for getting trees from the forest to the mill, processed, and delivered for sale. These are hard-working people who often work sun-to-sun (at least in the harvesting operations) and they live all over this state. Can they sell their house, uproot their family, and move 200 miles to chase a job bagging groceries?

Numbers don't tell the story.
 
  • #22
Turbo, the question is not whether people are having a hard time. That's a given. Remember, I work in the manufacturing sector. I see the demise of our manufacturing base first hand [of course Russ keeps telling me that I don't]. I've had one large customer go bankrupt, another all but fell off the face of the earth, and another just moved operations to Mexico.

The point is that we aren't filling the jobs that are open.
 
  • #23
Once again, many of the jobs lost will never come back. Is this a surprise to anyone here? If so, then you really shouldn't have an opinion on this matter.
 
  • #24
Ivan Seeking said:
Turbo, the question is not whether people are having a hard time. That's a given. Remember, I work in the manufacturing sector. I see the demise of our manufacturing base first hand [of course Russ keeps telling me that I don't]. I've had one large customer go bankrupt, another all but fell off the face of the earth, and another just moved operations to Mexico.

The point is that we aren't filling the jobs that are open.
I know that. Maine feels weaknesses in the base sectors of our economy early, suffers deeply, and recovers late. The elites who claim to be able to predict the onset and the end of recessions ought to park their butts here for a few decades to see how stupid their pronouncements are to real people.

Our state relies on natural resources (decline in production when demand falls), fishing (decline when people in other parts of the country feel they have less expendable income), and tourism (tricky, because we might get some increase in short-term tourism from NE when things get bad and people defer long trips, but we can lose the bucks spent by trust-fund babies that defer their Maine vacations when things get tight.)
 
  • #25
You are citing a jobs report from July. Clinton was resonding to the one that came out last week.

The report he's citing clearly shows "September 8" as the release date. It takes time to gather and release data. Newer numbers probably do not exist yet and I have no idea where Clinton got his 5 million.

Big surprise, we need skilled and unskilled labor, as well as college grads. If we have people to fill these 5 million jobs, and we must if we have 9.6% unemployment, then clearly we have a problem with the people trying to fill these jobs. ... The point is that we aren't filling the jobs that are open.

First of all, the keyword is "turnover". Having 5 million job openings does not mean that there are no people to fill them. Every day some job openings are filled and some are created. In any typical non-recession month, 5 million people lose their jobs / quit / retire, and 5 million people get new jobs. The number of job openings simply reflects the time it takes to fill positions that were left open when someone quit or retired.

Secondly, there's this peculiarity of our economy that it's easier to get jobs for intelligent & educated people. Partly because the manufacturing sector has been decimated by welfare expansion and repeated minimum wage hikes, and therefore employment opportunities for high school dropouts are very limited. We probably have a large number of openings for people with IQ over 110 (in fact, those existed all the way through the recession, and they are rising at a faster level than all others), but that does not mean that people currently out of work can be trained to do those jobs.
 
  • #26
No doubt, the technical measure of a recession not representitive of entire state of the economy. We see it here in Oregon as well. We had and still have one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Same with unemployment vs underemployment. In fact the underemployment problem was already present before the economy collapsed, but people were working two or even three part-time jobs because they couldn't get full-time positions.

Part of this underemployment business is a result of the loss of unions. Of course, historically, unions are in part responsible for the outsourcing and loss of industry.
 
  • #27
hamster143 said:
The report he's citing clearly shows "September 8" as the release date. It takes time to gather and release data. Newer numbers probably do not exist yet and I have no idea where Clinton got his 5 million.
Yes but the data was from July.

First of all, the keyword is "turnover". Having 5 million job openings does not mean that there are no people to fill them. Every day some job openings are filled and some are created. In any typical non-recession month, 5 million people lose their jobs / quit / retire, and 5 million people get new jobs. The number of job openings simply reflects the time it takes to fill positions that were left open when someone quit or retired.

His statement was that job postings are rising twice as fast as job hires. This is not a problem of turnover.

Secondly, there's this peculiarity of our economy that it's easier to get jobs for intelligent & educated people. Partly because the manufacturing sector has been decimated by welfare expansion and repeated minimum wage hikes, and therefore employment opportunities for high school dropouts are very limited. We probably have a large number of openings for people with IQ over 110 (in fact, those existed all the way through the recession, and they are rising at a faster level than all others), but that does not mean that people currently out of work can be trained to do those jobs.

Yes, as I said, people with a higher education or an advanced skill set are doing relatively well compared to labor and manufacturing. We need labor jobs, but the complaints posted were that we are getting labor jobs, and not good jobs.
 
  • #28
I love the complaint about minimum wage hikes. Have you ever tried to live on minimum wage? Have you seen all of the old people working at fast food joints, Wal Mart, and the like. These aren't high school kids.

If you can't make a living wage, then a job is no use. You'd probably do better by panhandling.
 
  • #29
... the complaints posted were that we are getting labor jobs, and not good jobs.

Yes, I'm pretty sure that it's the exact opposite. The overall unemployment rate among college educated people never got above 5%. Posting a software engineer resume on Dice tends to yield ten calls from recruiters on the first day. (Although some of them might expect you to work for as little as (gasp) $80k/year.) But try to find a job as an administrative assistant, or a cashier ...

I love the complaint about minimum wage hikes. Have you ever tried to live on minimum wage? Have you seen all of the old people working at fast food joints, Wal Mart, and the like. These aren't high school kids.

Well, there are about 100 million Chinese who work in manufacturing, and they survive just fine making less then the current U.S. minimum wage. Obviously, they don't have cars or iPhones, but it's doable. Prices for many commodities are set based on what people can afford to pay. for example, without a $8/hour minimum wage and the government that is always happy to step in with TANF, section 8 and whatnot, low-end housing would be much cheaper everywhere.

Personally, I lived on $50..$100/month for a few years, not in this country, but with essentially the same prices for necessities such as food and clothing.
 
  • #30
I don't recall ever saying anything about our manufacturing base, Ivan. All I'm saying us that democrats are contradicting themselves/each other, which makes this unsourced claim smell like BS.

How so you not see that your minimum wage lament (which is the typical view of liberals here) contradicts the thesis of the thread?

...er, wait - are you claiming that skilled people are taking minimum wage jobs which has resulted in high skill jobs being unfilled...? REALLY?

What this sounds like is Clinton trying to make excuses for the failure of Obama's jobs view/plan. In fact, he's saying Obama did the right thing and if you're still unemployed its you're fault (so vote democrat!).
 
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  • #31
Ivan Seeking said:
Once again, many of the jobs lost will never come back. Is this a surprise to anyone here? If so, then you really shouldn't have an opinion on this matter.
Um, you claimed in the OP that the jobs HAVE come back - but Americans are not qualified to fill them. Are you now retracting that and claiming the opposite?
 
  • #32
hamster143 said:
Well, there are about 100 million Chinese who work in manufacturing, and they survive just fine making less then the current U.S. minimum wage.
So the plan here is to lower the income for mainstream (blue collar) type workers to that of third world countries where many jobs are being outsourced, but while living in the USA where the cost of living is higher? If enough companies reduces wages to survival level in the USA, which is a 70% consumer based economy, the economy goes downhill, because a huge chunk of the income that was used to buy those consumer products goes away.
 
  • #33
russ_watters said:
Um, you claimed in the OP that the jobs HAVE come back - but Americans are not qualified to fill them. Are you now retracting that and claiming the opposite?
How exactly is 'some of the jobs have returned' contradictory to 'many of the jobs will never return'?
 
  • #34
Gokul43201 said:
How exactly is 'some of the jobs have returned' contradictory to 'many of the jobs will never return'?

Yes, and I never said that all new jobs were once old jobs. The point was that the creation of entirely new jobs [eg buidling wind turbines, or building electric cars] would explain why we don't have qualified applicants for them.
 
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  • #35
Note that I don't know the source of Clinton's information. I saw his interview and heard a few other reports of the same. Presumably the source of his comments will emerge soon enough.

I don't conclude that something is fishy just because I didn't expect it.
 
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  • #36
rcgldr said:
So the plan here is to lower the income for mainstream (blue collar) type workers to that of third world countries where many jobs are being outsourced, but while living in the USA where the cost of living is higher?
It's not just a plan. It's already happening.

Just a few personal facts:

1) I've worked in the electrical / electronics industry for over 35 years.

2) About ten years ago the company I worked for (for almost 25 years) moved all manufacturing operations to Mexico.

3) The company I work for today is the only manufacturing facility left in America that makes our product.

4) Today I earn a little more than one half what I earned ten years ago.

5) About 90% (and that's conservative) of my co-workers are legal immigrants. It's difficult for me because some of them do not speak good English.
 
  • #37
rcgldr said:
So the plan here is to lower the income for mainstream (blue collar) type workers to that of third world countries where many jobs are being outsourced, but while living in the USA where the cost of living is higher? If enough companies reduces wages to survival level in the USA, which is a 70% consumer based economy, the economy goes downhill, because a huge chunk of the income that was used to buy those consumer products goes away.

But why is the cost of living here higher? And in what ways?

Food is not substantially more expensive, especially raw ingredients. In some cases it's cheaper because of government subsidies. Clothing is about the same. Electronics is about the same. Electricity and gasoline are similar. Cars are substantially cheaper, as any European will attest.

There are three reasons why the cost of living appears higher, those are, housing, healthcare, and education. Housing appears to be more expensive, but that is partly because Americans have a different opinion of what's 'normal' (IIRC, Americans have at least double the average square footage per capita vs. most developed countries, to say nothing of China or Brazil), partly because of government subsidies such as section 8, and partly just simply false (the average price of a 2-bedroom apartment in Moscow surpassed $500,000 some time around 2005, and has remained above that level ever since.) Furthermore, getting rid of the minimum wage would allow the cost of construction of new housing to drop dramatically (90% of the cost of new construction is typically labor and permits), making housing more affordable for all.

Healthcare is, indeed, incredibly expensive here, by any reasonable standards, and that is, of course, caused (1) by absurd regulations that require you (or your health insurance company) to pay $100 to your doctor to get a prescription for a bottle of Amoxicillin (market price in India: $0.50) any time you get sick, and (2) by a severe shortage of doctors, caused by more absurd regulations which limit the number of spots in medical schools and residencies, and ensure that the shortage can't be filled by imported doctors. But that is only a factor for the reasonably well-off, because people out of labor force and people working for anything near the minimum wage (and their children) tend to get their healthcare through Medicaid/S-Chip, courtesy of taxpayers.

I don't want to go into education now, that's a complicated problem, but let's just say that we can safely drop the minimum wage to $1/hour (where it should be) while still allowing bright poor students to get college education.

The ultimate objective is to have a healthy economy. In a healthy economy, aggregate output is maximized, there's no such thing as "discouraged workers", and unemployment does not have tendency to stay high at a huge cost to taxpayers. The American economy is not it. Close to 20% of all working-age (25-55) adult males are unemployed at any given moment (and most of them have no interest in working or looking for work). For females that's close to 1/3. Many others only appear to work, while inflating the apparent GDP by far more than their real contribution, the demand for their labor tenuous at best (it's very uncommon outside the U.S. for secretaries/administrative assistants/clerks to make $20/hour). It is no surprise that a shock like the last recession can knock a large segment of population permanently out of labor force, and the national GDP into a lower trajectory.

Fortunately, there are countries that have it worse (France comes to mind), but that's nothing to be proud of.
 
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  • #38
Ivan Seeking said:
I thought this was quite interesting. According to this and other reports seen, we should have the employment rate Obama had hoped for. Apparently this informaton came out in the latest jobs report.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39235412/ns/meet_the_press-transcripts/

Ivan, this is a great find! Really!

There's only one (maybe 2?) problems.

First, what have all of the unemployed people been doing for the past 18 months while on unemployment (and COBRA)? I thought Obama had already encouraged everyone to go back to school. I'll try to find a stat on the amount of funding that has gone to re-training and "skill based" training/trade schools.

Next, the increase in job postings might have something to do with all of the "commission only" sales postings - this Career Builder search shows 100,000+ openings.

http://jobs.careerbuilder.com/jobse...=&as:excn=&as:exnt=True&SearchBtn=Find+Jobs+»

A similar "Work at Home" search demonstrates 22,586 opportunities.
http://jobs.careerbuilder.com/jobse...ExpHigh=gt50;ExpLow=0;MaxLowExp=-1&IPath=QAKV

However, the most telling search might be for "Employment" - 53,950 openings for people to find jobs for other people.
http://jobs.careerbuilder.com/jobse...ExpHigh=GT50;ExpLow=0;MaxLowExp=-1&IPath=ILKV

Sadly, "Construction" only yielded 14,117 results
http://jobs.careerbuilder.com/jobse...ExpHigh=GT50;ExpLow=0;MaxLowExp=-1&IPath=ILKV
 
  • #39
Ivan Seeking said:
Note that I don't know the source of Clinton's information. I saw his interview and heard a few other reports of the same. Presumably the source of his comments will emerge soon enough.

I don't conclude that something is fishy just because I didn't expect it.

Ivan, here is one of the sources for raw quantitative data that I use in some of my econ models. You really want to gauge wages and employment levels, this one is gold.

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0810.pdf

There are a few indicators out there that track employment listings. One of the services has a really good one that is sort of scientific and it does it by metro area and job classification. The problem is that it is not free, and it is very expensive.
 
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  • #40
According to airborne18's post - student loans (year to date) are $36,462 million up from $21,340 million in the prior year. An increase of 70.86%.


Plus, the Department of Labor reported "Total-Employment and Training Administration" outlays increased from $133,414 million to $233,048 million.


Interestingly, the Department of Homeland Security DECREASED spending from $53,126 million to $47,436 million.


A bright spot was that the Small Business Administration increased it's "Business Loans Programs" spending from $1,735 million to $5,226 million...kudos Mr. President.


On the other hand, I still haven't figured out the 2011 Budgeted amount of $200,000 million (up from $5,265 million current year) for "Reduction of Operating Cash, Increase (-)" ...is this the money they plan to print?
 
  • #41
Ok, I was posting this weekend from a blackberry and had to limit my post length, so I coulnd't get too deep into this. So sorry if I'm backtracking a little (and it looks like hamster has done a pretty good job explaining what I could only hint at):
Ivan Seeking said:
I thought this was quite interesting. According to this and other reports seen, we should have the employment rate Obama had hoped for. Apparently this informaton came out in the latest jobs report.
The jobs that are being opened don't have qualified people applying for them. We need a system to immediately train them to move into that job. And I hope we'll have some commitments coming out on that. There are five million people who could go to work tomorrow if they were trained to do the jobs that are open, and the unemployment rate in America would immediately drop from 9.6 to about 7 percent or 6.9.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39235412/ns/meet_the_press-transcripts/
As noted, this is just a politician speaking in politician-BS. There are always a certain number of open jobs and they can't all be immediately filled because, obviously, it takes a finite amount of time to fill a job. For a new job, you have to advertise, collect resumes, interview, then make a decision. Unless you're desperate to fill the job, this process will take weeks or months. So this is obviously just a nonsensical statement. You can't claim credit for something that is an always-existing, structural component of unemployment. However, there is an implied claim behind this that you picked-up on:
Ivan said:
You [hamster] are citing a jobs report from July. Clinton was resonding to the one that came out last week. All that you have shown is that we have added 2 million unfilled jobs to the market since July.
hamster said:
The report he's citing clearly shows "September 8" as the release date. It takes time to gather and release data. Newer numbers probably do not exist yet and I have no idea where Clinton got his 5 million.
In some fairness to Clinton, this was an off-the cuff response in an interview and there is a good chance he just pulled it out of the air. Nevertheless, if jobs were opening at a rate that gave us 2 million more total today than two months ago (I'm not inclined to accept this claimed fact that doesn't exist), because it takes a finite amount of time to fill a job, they can't be filled instantly (as I said above). All this means is that there is a slight lag between job creation and unemployment decreasing. This isn't rocket science, isn't profound, and isn't an excuse for Obama being wrong for the past year. Remember, Ivan - Obama claimed unemployment wouldn't exceed 8% and would drop faster than this. If, as you are claiming, in the past two months the jobs situation has gotten dramatically better, that still makes him wrong for a year -- then suddenly catching up to his prediction.

Now, based on the above and as explained by hamster, this has nothing to do with skills. So even setting aside the unsubstantiated claim of fact, the reason for it is still just BS - and, frankly, is just another unsubstantiated claim of fact.

Slick Willy is pulling your chain and you're buying it because it is something you want to hear.
Ivan said:
Once again, many of the jobs lost will never come back.
Gokul said:
How exactly is 'some of the jobs have returned' contradictory to 'many of the jobs will never return'?
Ivan said:
Yes, and I never said that all new jobs were once old jobs. The point was that the creation of entirely new jobs [eg buidling wind turbines, or building electric cars] would explain why we don't have qualified applicants for them.
Ok, I guess I misunderstood there. As I said, what I'm hearing here is opposite what I typically hear from liberals. The statement that many jobs will never come back has typically implied to me that they will be replaced by lower quality jobs, not that they will be replaced by higher quality jobs (which sounds like a positive thing to me).
 
  • #42
russ watters said:
Slick Willy is pulling your chain and you're buying it because it is something you want to hear.
Yes, this is certainly a possibility. I don't think Ivan Seeking has sufficiently argued his premise yet.

But I do agree with him on this:
Ivan Seeking said:
I love the complaint about minimum wage hikes.
It didn't make any sense to me either.

hamster143 said:
Well, there are about 100 million Chinese who work in manufacturing, and they survive just fine making less then the current U.S. minimum wage. Obviously, they don't have cars or iPhones, but it's doable.
And we can legalize sweat shops and child labor while we're at it.

hamster143 said:
Prices for many commodities are set based on what people can afford to pay. for example, without a $8/hour minimum wage and the government that is always happy to step in with TANF, section 8 and whatnot, low-end housing would be much cheaper everywhere.
I'd be surprised if there's any significant correlation between these programs and housing, or any other, prices. The number of people in these programs is only about 4% to 6% of the adult population. I'd guess that the minimum wage, tanf, section 8, food stamps and public housing have a very small, but positive, effect on the overall economy -- and that increasing any or all of these would have a very small, but positive, effect on the overall economy. The positive effect on the lives of the small percentage of our population that needs this help is, however, relatively large.
 
  • #43
russ_watters said:
Remember, Ivan - Obama claimed unemployment wouldn't exceed 8% and would drop faster than this.
And how do you interpret this failure?

I see it as being, in large part, a failure in Obama's - actually Obama's economic team during his campaign, when this forecast was made - ability to accurately estimate unemployment trends. Basically, his team grossly underestimated how deep a jobless recession he would be inheriting.

After all, if I recall correctly, unemployment was above 8% even as Obama was being sworn into office, and was passing 9% barely three months later (that's before anything significant in ARRA could come into effect; even by the Obama team forecasts, it was expected to take over a year for the job growth effects to fully kick in - Edit: my memory is somewhat off, see figure below).

Edit: Attached below is the picture often cited (see how the real numbers start trending sharply above the expectation even before Obama is in office):

stimulus-vs-unemployment-june-proj-dots.gif


Monthly numbers from BLS: http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000
 
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  • #44
Gokul43201 said:
And how do you interpret this failure?

I see it as being, in large part, a failure in Obama's - actually Obama's economic team during his campaign, when this forecast was made - ability to accurately estimate unemployment trends. Basically, his team grossly underestimated how deep a jobless recession he would be inheriting.

After all, if I recall correctly, unemployment was above 8% even as Obama was being sworn into office, and was passing 9% barely three months later (that's before anything significant in ARRA could come into effect; even by the Obama team forecasts, it was expected to take over a year for the job growth effects to fully kick in - Edit: my memory is somewhat off, see figure below).

Edit: Attached below is the picture often cited (see how the real numbers start trending sharply above the expectation even before Obama is in office):

stimulus-vs-unemployment-june-proj-dots.gif


Monthly numbers from BLS: http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000


The issue with jobs is more complex than a few data points. There are multiple policy decisions that have prolonged the recession, and the blame can be spread out across Obama, Congress, and the Fed.

The real failure was not having a stimulus, but it was having a stimulus that targeted money to the bottom of the economy, and it was not delivered quickly. It almost became a political payback system. When you want to stimulate you throw the money very quickly at the middle and top of the economy where job creation is instant.

The administration took fundamental economic theories and tried to push the outcome. And that is what failed. You cannot really stop a recession by doing X. It is an organic process and you have to allow the curve to hit bottom. All they did is prolong the bottom.

They also banked on the Census jobs to keep the unemployment rate down, and then they figured 3rd and especially 4th qtr hiring would continue where the Census stopped. Well that would have worked if the real estate market would have bottomed out.. And if they didn't burn off pending demand through the random incentives to buy cars and appliances.
 
  • #45
Congress, not the president, is mainly to blame.
 
  • #46
Stating that Obama's economic team underestimated the depth of the recession as inherited is only a possible theory, not economic ground truth. Another, more likely one IMO, is that the recession was correctly assessed and the prescription via a government spending fire hose was flawed and greatly over estimated in its impact.

Edit: with regards to timing, Romer's report containing the chart above was released January 10, 2009 (as indicated by the divergence of the with/without curves), the Recovery Act was passed Feb 19th, and Romer et al should have fully aware of the limitations in the speed of dispersing the stimulus, as those concerns were expressed by Keynes himself.
 
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  • #47
mheslep said:
Stating that Obama's economic team underestimated the depth of the recession as inherited is only a possibly theory. Another, more likely one IMO, is that the recession was correctly assessed and the prescription via a government spending fire hose was flawed and greatly over estimated in its impact.

I'm just going to throw this out here, and it's basically a question: how about barring a stroke of genius or act of pure idiocy... this recession has roughly followed the course it would have with anyone in office?

CRGreathouse is right about congress... very little gets done at this point, so the President (Obama or McCain) could accomplish little. The Dems are just not disciplined enough to break Rep blocks, and the Reps would have been blocked by the Dem majority. The bickering has turned into what seems to be real acrimony, and the only people winning are the ones getting paid to just be in power.
 
  • #48
mheslep said:
Stating that Obama's economic team underestimated the depth of the recession as inherited is only a possibly theory. Another, more likely one IMO, is that the recession was correctly assessed and the prescription via a government spending fire hose was flawed and greatly over estimated in its impact.
Quite likely. Past administrations have vastly overestimated the stimulative effects that they championed.

Still, the right-wingers were in denial for years about the recession as it occurred. We had detailed discussions on this forum years ago regarding the recession that we were falling into (obvious to some) only to be told "don't worry, be happy". My wife and I sold our old house in a nice development over 5 years ago, downsized drastically, and have settled in nicely in a small comfortable place that we can retire in. Lots of our friends said "what the hell are you doing?" and lots of members on PF discounted our choices, with sometimes irrational arguments like "we are not officially in a recession". Guess what? Rear-view pronouncements mean nothing, and nobody makes any money retro-dicting economic or market moves. My wife and I have sheltered our earnings and are not at any risk from financial institutions apart from the creeps that may be gaming some of the funds that we are invested in. There is no way to eliminate that, unless you are fantastically wealthy.
 
  • #49
airborne18 said:
The issue with jobs is more complex than a few data points. There are multiple policy decisions that have prolonged the recession, and the blame can be spread out across Obama, Congress, and the Fed.

The real failure was not having a stimulus, but it was having a stimulus that targeted money to the bottom of the economy, and it was not delivered quickly. It almost became a political payback system. When you want to stimulate you throw the money very quickly at the middle and top of the economy where job creation is instant.

The administration took fundamental economic theories and tried to push the outcome. And that is what failed. You cannot really stop a recession by doing X. It is an organic process and you have to allow the curve to hit bottom. All they did is prolong the bottom.

They also banked on the Census jobs to keep the unemployment rate down, and then they figured 3rd and especially 4th qtr hiring would continue where the Census stopped. Well that would have worked if the real estate market would have bottomed out.. And if they didn't burn off pending demand through the random incentives to buy cars and appliances.

Part of the problem was the size of the Stimulus - didn't anyone in the Administration see the movie "Brewster's Millions"(?) - it's hard to spend large sums of money - the whole notion that nearly $1 trillion of projects could be "shovel ready" is nonsense.

That criticism aside, I agree that the spending targeted the wrong ENDS of the economy. First the banks, auto industry and unions were bailed out (we won't even discuss the damage done to overall confidence in the US when the bond holders were robbed)- then the bottom of the economy via the states.

Completely overlooked was micro, small, and mid-sized businesses - the 2 to 500 employee type businesses. These businesses are the ones that sustain the job market. These businesses aren't operating manufacturing facilities in China, Mexico, or on ships off the coast (garments).
 
  • #50
mheslep said:
Stating that Obama's economic team underestimated the depth of the recession as inherited is only a possibly theory, not economic ground truth.
I can see no other way to explain a graph that shows late 2008 and early 2009 unemployment numbers significantly lower than they really were. Can you? How could they have gotten the historical record wrong?

The only possibilities I can conceive of (besides, just being so doped up they didn't know what the current unemployment numbers were) are:

1. The graph was made back in mid-2008, when the records still matched the plot, or more likely,

2. The unemployment numbers were revised upwards by BLS at a later date (I imagine this is verifiable).

Both of these scenarios indicate that Romer & Bernstein had underestimated the rate at which unemployment was growing in late 2008. In fact, if they believed their graph was accurate in at least the historical record, they HAD to have been underestimating the unemployment growth in late 2008.

Another, more likely one IMO, is that the recession was correctly assessed and the prescription via a government spending fire hose was flawed and greatly over estimated in its impact.
If the recession was correctly assessed, and the stimulus had no effect, then we wouldn't have seen unemployment greater than 9%. So you must admit that either their assessment was low, or the stimulus bill worsened unemployment to the tune of an additional 1% - that's not an overestimate, it's a sign error!
 
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