Massive 8.8 Earth Quake in Chile

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A massive 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck offshore Maule, Chile, resulting in at least 64 reported casualties and significant infrastructure damage, including collapsed buildings and blocked roads. The quake triggered tsunami warnings across the Pacific, affecting countries such as Japan, the Philippines, and the western coasts of North and South America, with Hawaii on high alert. Aftershocks have been frequent, with several recorded at magnitudes above 5.0. The tsunami generated waves that have already impacted locations like Easter Island and are expected to reach Hawaii, prompting evacuations. The situation remains fluid as authorities assess the full extent of the disaster and ongoing risks.
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Breaking news. A massive Earth quake hit Chili in the middle of the night and started a tsunami traveling across the Pacific ocean. I hope the tsunami won't hit the countries like Japan or Philippines.
 
Earth sciences news on Phys.org
At least 64 casualties reported ATM.
 
Tsunami warnings now also issued for the N/S-American western coastal line and even other areas like Russia and Australia.
 
Magnitude 8.8 - OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010tfan.php

Very significant quake, and off-shore means risk of tsunami. Fortunately, it was not too shallow.

Location: 35.846°S, 72.719°W
Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program

Distances:
100 km (60 miles) NNW of Chillan, Chile
105 km (65 miles) WSW of Talca, Chile
115 km (70 miles) NNE of Concepcion, Chile
325 km (200 miles) SW of SANTIAGO, Chile

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles); set by program

Pretty significant swarm and aftershocks.
Feb 27, 2010
Code: 
 MAG  UTC TIME     LAT       LON     DEPTH   
       h:m:s       deg       deg      km       Region
 5.4  10:54:23   -36.828   -73.336    35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.9  10:38:35   -38.019   -73.575    35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.9  10:30:34   -33.559   -72.636    35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
 5.8  09:59:21   -37.991   -73.467    35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.1  09:21:25   -36.609   -73.218    35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.6  09:00:17   -33.425   -71.625    35.0   VALPARAISO, CHILE 
 5.3  08:53:56   -34.447   -73.397    35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
 5.0  08:53:26   -35.073   -71.760    35.0   MAULE, CHILE 
 5.6  08:48:05   -38.584   -75.257    35.0   OFF THE COAST OF ARAUCANIA, CHILE 
 6.1  08:25:29   -34.750   -72.394    35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
 5.5  08:19:23   -33.479   -71.574    35.0   VALPARAISO, CHILE 
 6.9  08:01:24   -37.654   -75.199    39.0   OFF THE COAST OF BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.2  07:56:37   -36.933   -73.240    35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.4  07:51:05   -36.399   -72.498    35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.4  07:46:49   -36.795   -72.924    35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 6.0  07:37:18   -36.837   -72.541    35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.6  07:33:31   -38.007   -73.484    35.7   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
 5.4  07:19:48   -35.811   -72.945    35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
 6.0  07:12:28   -33.807   -71.913    35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
 6.2  06:52:35   -34.735   -72.638    35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
[B] 8.8  06:34:14   -35.846   -72.719    35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE[/B]

Edit: Date-Time: Friday, February 26, 2010 at 20:31:27 UTC
Saturday, February 27, 2010 at 05:31:27 AM at epicenter

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010teb2.php
 
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The NOAA Pacific tsunami warning center is reporting a wave amplitude of 1.1ft at Easter Island. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/messages/pacific/2010/pacific.2010.02.27.134506.txt
 
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My nephew is stationed in Hawaii. He and his wife and daughter are heading for higher land.
 
CNN says the tsunami may reach Hawaii by 12:45 pm local time / 6:45 pm ET (I'm assuming they switched an am/pm):
The earliest estimated arrival for a wave that could affect Hawaii was 12:46 a.m.[sic] local time (6:46 p.m. ET). But evacuations of coastal areas were to begin at 6 a.m. (12 p.m. ET).
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/02/27/chile.quake/index.html?hpt=T1

Here's a link to NOAA's tsunami warning center: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/

Actually, they list an earlier ETA:
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS

1105 AM HST SAT 27 FEB 2010

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
 
Haven't heard back from my nephew in Hawaii yet. It's pretty nice that he was on-shore right now, for the sake of his wife and daughter. He was commissioned as a Chief Warrant Officer (2) last year with a specialty in propulsion systems, and has been spending a lot of time at sea.

Thanks for the report, Russ. I had hoped the Honolulu area might be somewhat sheltered, but didn't know about the wrap-around effect.
 
The latest.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100227/ap_on_re_us/quake_tsunami_9
 
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  • #10
Obviously this is a fast developing story given the magnitude of damage to Chilean infrastructure.

Massive earthquake hits Chile, 147 dead
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100227/ts_nm/us_quake_chile
CONCEPCION, Chile (Reuters) – One of the most powerful earthquakes in decades battered Chile on Saturday, killing at least 147 people, knocking down buildings and triggering a tsunami that rolled menacingly across the Pacific.

Buildings caught fire, major highway bridges collapsed and debris blocked streets across large swathes of central Chile.

A 15-storey building collapsed in Concepcion, the closest major city to the epicenter, and overturned cars lay scattered below a fallen overpass in the capital Santiago. Telephone and power lines went down, making it difficult to assess the full extent of the damage and loss of life.

Chilean President-elect Sebastian Pinera said at least 147 people had died in the 8.8-magnitude quake, which struck at 3:34 a.m. (0634 GMT), sending many people rushing from their beds and onto the streets in fear.

"It came in waves and lasted so long. Three minutes is an eternity. We kept worrying that it was getting stronger, like a terrifying Hollywood movie," said housewife Dolores Cuevas.

. . . .

And this is a really dumb headline - Chile Earthquake: Is Mother Nature Out of Control?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/chileearthquakeismothernatureoutofcontrol

It's just normal behavior - at least one 8 mag earthquake per year, somewhere on the Ring of Fire, Sunda trench and Asia region would be expected.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
 
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  • #11
Tsu just spoke with her cousin in Kuwaii. He and the rest of the local community are parked on high ground with plenty of beer, munchies, and binoculars. The Tsunami is expected in Hilo any minute.
 
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  • #12
The big Island [Hawaii] is officially reporting that the first water-level rise has been observed. So far it is only about three feet, but more is thought to be likely.

Reports from New Zealand suggest that the core of the tsunami should be arriving about an hour late. That would make the eta in Hilo [on the big island] about 2:15 pst.

One spokesman from the Tsunami Center said there are reports of damage from the tsunami in Ventura, California.
 
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  • #13
Wave height prediction animated:

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height"

Here are the buoy locations near Hawaii, they should be able to see incoming surges.

http://www.stormsurf.com/4cast/mht/hiz.html"

Rhody...

Edit: tsunami warning dropped for Hawaii as of 6:45pm EDT from CBS News
 
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  • #14
On Friday (The Day before the Quake) I was looking at the Live http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml" and noticed something strange,
It looked as though the Earth flat-lined (No noise hence a straight line) for several hours. This was very unusual, normally there is always some ripple but on Friday there was none.
I was wondering if anyone else noticed this and is this a normal occurrence before a big quake?
 
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  • #15
sas3 said:
On Friday (The Day before the Quake) I was looking at the Live http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml" and noticed something strange,
It looked as though the Earth flat-lined (No noise hence a straight line) for several hours. This was very unusual, normally there is always some ripple but on Friday there was none.
I was wondering if anyone else noticed this and is this a normal occurrence before a big quake?
Flat-lined where?

About 10 hours before the MAULE, CHILE quake

Magnitude 7.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN February 26, 2010 -
Friday, February 26, 2010 at 20:31:27 UTC

What threshold is one considering? There are mag 3 and lesser quakes all the time.

The following represents two days or 48 hrs of seismic activity of quakes of Mag 2.5 or greater. Lesser quakes are not considered.
Code: 
Mag   UTC time   Lat deg    Long deg  Depth(km)  Location
2010/02/27
5.2   23:35:15   -33.867    -72.226   34.8   OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.7   23:21:13    35.912     70.051  104.9   HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN 
5.8   23:12:35   -34.741    -71.864   35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.8   23:02:01   -37.755    -72.713   35.2   ARAUCANIA, CHILE 
5.2   22:22:33   -34.072    -71.308   35.0   REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE 
4.4   22:22:28    35.623    -96.762    3.8   OKLAHOMA 
5.1   22:20:04   -35.094    -72.712   35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
5.2   22:16:15   -36.491    -73.380   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.0   22:13:52   -34.437    -72.531   35.0   OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.2   21:59:08   -36.794    -73.311   34.8   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
3.0   21:58:47    59.772   -152.899  105.8   SOUTHERN ALASKA 
5.0   21:48:26   -33.968    -72.140   28.6   OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.2   21:43:11   -35.131    -72.450   35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
4.9   21:41:30   -36.564    -73.509   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.2   21:00:37   -33.855    -73.028   35.0   OFF THE COAST OF VALPARAISO, CHILE 
5.0   20:44:34   -37.893    -73.423   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.0   20:29:23   -34.689    -73.621   35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
2.7   20:23:53    36.058   -117.890    2.7   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
4.9   20:05:28   -33.470    -72.470   35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
5.4   19:54:30    10.896    -43.442   10.0   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE 
5.0   19:46:10   -36.090    -73.332   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.2   19:06:18   -37.473    -73.502   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
6.3   19:00:08   -33.425    -71.909   34.8   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
5.1   18:41:51   -37.581    -73.501   34.9   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.3   18:23:12   -37.618    -73.818   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.6   18:15:23   -37.527    -73.696   20.8   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.1   18:12:51   -33.847    -71.577   35.0   REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE 
5.3   17:56:53   -34.688    -71.571   35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.5   17:43:37   -36.453    -72.978   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.6   17:24:34   -36.256    -72.927   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.0   17:22:26   -38.043    -73.629   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.5   17:11:49   -33.953    -71.796   35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.2   16:50:20   -34.162    -72.010   35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.5   16:37:34   -37.509    -73.605   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.2   16:32:21   -34.986    -72.356   35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
5.5   16:27:58   -37.820    -73.404   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.5   16:21:14   -38.266    -73.434   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
6.3   15:45:41   -24.588    -65.432   38.2   SALTA, ARGENTINA 
5.1   15:23:06   -34.528    -74.987   35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
2.7   15:16:06    64.609   -149.293    1.3   CENTRAL ALASKA 
5.2   15:09:08   -33.890    -71.268   35.0   REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE 
3.2   15:01:35    36.066   -117.884    1.9   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
5.0   14:40:53   -31.321    -74.548   35.0   OFF THE COAST OF COQUIMBO, CHILE 
4.9   14:29:10   -35.028    -71.714   35.0   MAULE, CHILE 
5.2   14:23:28   -34.505    -72.596   35.0   OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.0   14:20:00   -37.274    -73.062   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.0   14:06:47   -37.288    -72.835   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
3.1   13:56:38    36.065   -117.885    2.3   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
5.2   13:54:04   -33.269    -71.834   35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
5.0   13:12:52   -35.014    -71.660   35.0   MAULE, CHILE 
5.1   13:07:42   -38.436    -73.254   35.0   ARAUCANIA, CHILE 
4.9   13:04:51   -37.115    -73.325   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.1   12:58:33   -33.443    -70.944   35.0   REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE 
5.1   12:46:19   -37.699    -73.681   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.1   12:44:50   -36.999    -73.038   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
4.9   12:28:48   -34.187    -70.439   35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.0   12:23:06   -36.253    -72.266   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.2   12:19:51    25.979    128.434    9.9   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 
5.5   12:03:27   -34.399    -73.825   35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.4   11:45:03   -36.318    -73.216   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.3   11:27:00   -38.103    -73.587   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.4   10:54:24   -36.828    -73.336   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.9   10:38:36   -38.019    -73.575   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.9   10:30:35   -33.559    -72.636   35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
5.6   10:10:15   -33.701    -72.184   35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
5.8   09:59:21   -37.991    -73.467   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
3.7   09:40:02    61.853   -150.952   59.3   SOUTHERN ALASKA 
5.1   09:21:26   -36.609    -73.218   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.6   09:00:18   -33.425    -71.625   35.0   VALPARAISO, CHILE 
5.3   08:53:57   -34.447    -73.397   35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE 
5.0   08:53:27   -35.073    -71.760   35.0   MAULE, CHILE 
5.6   08:48:05   -38.584    -75.257   35.0   OFF THE COAST OF ARAUCANIA, CHILE 
5.7   08:31:05   -34.820    -72.443   35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
6.1   08:25:30   -34.750    -72.394   35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
5.5   08:19:24   -33.479    -71.574   35.0   VALPARAISO, CHILE 
5.6   08:13:16   -33.062    -71.702   35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
6.9   08:01:24   -37.654    -75.199   39.0   OFF THE COAST OF BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.4   07:59:56   -36.050    -73.562   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.2   07:56:37   -36.933    -73.240   35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.4   07:51:06   -36.399    -72.498   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.4   07:46:50   -36.795    -72.924   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
6.0   07:37:18   -36.837    -72.541   35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.6   07:33:31   -38.007    -73.484  35.7   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 
5.4   07:19:49   -35.811    -72.945  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
6.0   07:12:29   -33.807    -71.913  35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 
3.5   07:10:48    36.062   -117.888   0.6   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
2.9   07:04:24    40.138   -121.317   8.6   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
2.9   06:56:03    36.073   -117.878   2.5   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
6.2   06:52:35   -34.735    -72.638  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
8.8   06:34:15   -35.846    -72.719  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE 
4.8   05:37:30    25.987    128.527  18.3   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 
2.5   05:19:42    58.912   -152.897  71.9   KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 
4.4   05:04:29    -7.196    111.316 246.5   JAVA, INDONESIA 
2.9   01:54:40    62.565   -151.520 105.6   CENTRAL ALASKA 
4.9   01:33:21    25.947    128.384   6.4   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 
4.7   01:17:35    52.229    158.672  53.7   NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA 
5.1   00:48:46    25.989    128.510  32.8   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 

2010/02/26
4.9   23:30:59   -11.431    166.285  91.1   SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS 
4.6   21:37:36    31.247    103.614  22.1   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA 
2.8   21:05:25    34.809   -116.301   4.1   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
7.0   20:31:27    25.902    128.417  22.0   RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 
2.8   20:12:04    36.057   -117.888   2.4   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
2.5   20:11:35    18.716   -155.269  12.5   HAWAII REGION, HAWAII 
2.7   16:49:46    61.996   -150.942  59.5   SOUTHERN ALASKA 
5.1   16:18:57    5.842     125.792  53.7   MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES 
3.7   15:21:59    57.298   -154.890  33.1   KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 
3.9   15:02:32    32.552   -115.257  15.0   BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO 
2.7   13:22:51    36.179   -117.962   5.9   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
2.7   12:46:42    36.051   -117.897   1.0   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
3.1   09:02:08    35.571    -97.094   5.0   OKLAHOMA 
5.7   08:37:03    6.394     126.805 117.3   MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES 
2.7   07:30:59    19.024    -67.465   8.7   PUERTO RICO REGION 
2.5   06:14:09    60.721   -150.042  38.1   KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA 
2.9   05:51:17    39.817   -120.043   9.2   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
4.8   05:38:18    23.758    122.788  37.8   TAIWAN REGION 
5.4   04:42:30    28.432     86.769  10.0   WESTERN XIZANG 
5.0   04:41:29    0.892     123.194  66.6   MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA 
2.7   03:12:35    63.008   -151.024 132.3   CENTRAL ALASKA 
4.3   01:52:20    16.382    -96.533  48.9   OAXACA, MEXICO 
5.5   01:07:58    23.782    122.839  34.7   TAIWAN REGION 
3.4   00:21:20    19.237    -64.527  113.1   VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 
5.5   00:11:51   -55.882    -5.052  6.0   SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
 
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  • #16
Almost all of the seismic displays on this page “http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml" (out of order probably).
Normally they look like the line between 22:00 – 00:00 on this page http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/telemetry_data/MSKU_24hr.html
When there is little activity.
 
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  • #17
sas3 said:
Almost all of the seismic displays on this page “http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml" (out of order probably).
Normally they look like the line between 22:00 – 00:00 on this page http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/telemetry_data/MSKU_24hr.html
When there is little activity.
The NWAO station is in Narrogin, Australia, and it's relatively quite there. Some activity shows up there on other traces, but it's very low. Checking other stations in areas like Alaska, Oregon, California, Washington state, one will see a lot of noise, even noisier than the MSKU (Masuku, Gabon) station example.
 
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  • #18
Well, from the beginning scientists were saying this earthquake was not anticipated to create much of a tsunami at all, (1-6 feet), but then they were silenced and fear mongering began. Now these *scientists* that made a fuss over what appeared to be nothing are saying

Scientists acknowledged they overstated the threat, but defended their actions, saying they took the proper steps and learned the lessons of the 2004 Indonesian tsunami that killed thousands of people who didn't get enough warning.
If I recall correctly, the lack of warning in 2004 was due to the lack of an operating tsunami warning system in that part of the world. It was not the lack of media coverage from scientists.

We need to be alert, but not OVERSTATE or EXAGERATE threats. This is making more and more people ignore warnings from so called scientists that seem to care more about getting their names in the news more than making realistic predictions.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/quake_tsunami;_ylt=Aj5.CDchW_C68pkEtXRhdIEUewgF;_ylu=X3oDMTMybmcxZmhsBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwMjI4L3F1YWtlX3RzdW5hbWkEY2NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwMyBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDc2NpZW50aXN0c2Rl
 
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  • #19
Yes - the nations around the Indian Ocean did not (may still not) have a warning system set up to monitor and warn of tsunamis, as is the case for the nations around the Pacific Ocean.

It's a deficiency of governments, not the scientists.
 
  • #21
Millionths of a second here, millionths of a second there, times 365, times - say - 70 - you can be surprised.
 
  • #22
Evo said:
Well, from the beginning scientists were saying this earthquake was not anticipated to create much of a tsunami at all, (1-6 feet), but then they were silenced and fear mongering began.

What scientists were silenced? This is not an exact science, so there is no way to know just how bad a tsunami might be.

It's a key point to remember that we cannot under-warn. Failure to warn is not an option for us," said Dai Lin Wang, an oceanographer at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii. "We cannot have a situation that we thought was no problem and then it's devastating. That just cannot happen
 
  • #23
Evo said:
Well, from the beginning scientists were saying this earthquake was not anticipated to create much of a tsunami at all, (1-6 feet), but then they were silenced and fear mongering began. Now these *scientists* that made a fuss over what appeared to be nothing are saying
While this might be true for the surrounding countries, Chile does appear to have suffered from the generated tsunami. Many deaths are supposed to be attributed to the lack of warning for a tsunami, but the exact number still need to be evaluated. Here an interview with Chile's president: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1969009,00.html"
 
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  • #24
Monique said:
While this might be true for the surrounding countries, Chile does appear to have suffered from the generated tsunami. Many deaths are supposed to be attributed to the lack of warning for a tsunami, but the exact number still need to be evaluated. Here an interview with Chile's president: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1969009,00.html"

In fact, many people in Chile fled the coast expecting a tsumami, and were then told to go home. Then came the tsunami.

100301-chile-hmed-456p.h2.jpg

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35615455/ns/world_news-chile_earthquake/
 
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  • #25
Monique said:
While this might be true for the surrounding countries,

Really? Scientists were silenced?
 
  • #26
Ivan Seeking said:
Really? Scientists were silenced?
No, I was responding to whether the threat of a tsunami was overstated for regions such as Hawaii. I was watching CNN and the anchors were at one point talking about 30 meter waves, which was quickly identified as misinformation. I didn't really get the impression that the threat of a tsunami was overstated by scientists, but the damage was less severe than expected/feared in countries outside Chili.
 
  • #27
Monique said:
No, I was responding to whether the threat of a tsunami was overstated for regions such as Hawaii. I was watching CNN and the anchors were at one point talking about 30 meter waves, which was quickly identified as misinformation. I didn't really get the impression that the threat of a tsunami was overstated by scientists, but the damage was less severe than expected/feared in countries outside Chili.

Okay, I wasn't sure what you meant to confirm. Also, in some places, esp where funneling occurs, even a six-foot tsunami can be devastating.

These folks have a tough job. Too little information, or a miscalculation based on marginal information, means perhaps thousand of lives lost. Too much warning and they end up with egg on their faces.
 
  • #28
In 1960 an earthquake off the coast of Chile caused a tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii. Issuing warnings in Hawaii in the wake of this quake was not premature nor over-reacting. Monday-morning quarterbacking in the wake of what might have been another disaster is not scientific in the least.
 
  • #29
Ivan Seeking said:
What scientists were silenced? This is not an exact science, so there is no way to know just how bad a tsunami might be.
I can't find the original, but here is basically what it was referring to

The computer model Vasily and his co-workers have been fine-tuning for the past several years predicted maximum surges of about 3 feet in coastal towns across Hawaii. Actual tidal gauge measurements from the islands validate that prediction.

There's still some confusion as to why officials in Hawaii initially warned that waves up to 10 feet were possible.

Staffers at NOAA's Pacific Tsunami Warning System in Hawaii haven't completely integrated the new tsunami model into their operations, said Director Charles McCreery. They also weren't sure how reliable the model would be, he added.

The public warning that led to the evacuation of up to 50,000 people from Hawaii's coastlines was based on many factors — including the state's history of deadly tsunamis originating off Chile and reports that some islands in the tsunami's path were battered by waves up to 12 feet tall, McCreery said.

<snip>Forecasters making life-and-death decisions still need a better understanding of how much confidence they can place in the models, McCreery added. But as use of the system becomes routine, it should lead to more accurate predictions and fewer false alarms, he said.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011228052_tsunamilocal02m.html
 
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  • #30
The 8.8-magnitude earthquake that jolted Chile on Saturday was felt as far away as São Paulo. But NASA scientists are proposing that its repercussions are truly global in a geophysical sense: it likely shifted the Earth's axis by about eight centimeters.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=how-the-earthquake-in-chile-changed-2010-03-02
 
  • #32
Thank goodness I have earthquake insurance. Haven’t had to use it as of yet though I have in the past been through some rollers. It’s frightening! For those people in earthquake areas that have lost their homes and friends/family my sincerest condonlences.

And thank you to everyone who has helped to bring this information to the public and the kind hearts that have come to help the people in Chili and Haiti.

I’ve located Chile Earthquake photos and captions as of 3-1-10 compiled by CSSC Staff.
http://www.eqclearinghouse.org/20100227-chile/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Chile-Earthquake-Images-and-Maps-M8.8-2-27-2010-as-of-3-1-2010.pdf

Here’s a superb website if your interested in keeping abreast about earthquakes. Latest Earthquakes in the World - Past 7 days from the U.S. Department of the Interior | U.S. Geological Survey.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

Lastest earthquake:
Magnitude 6.4 - VANUATU
2010 March 04 14:02:30 UTC
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010tkbu.php#details

I think I best skip over to my last posting on Physicsforums that was in biology before my day ends. It's always nice to return to a pleasant and refreshing place filled with a very warm group of learned and concerned cyber friends. Thank you.
 
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  • #33
Evo said:
I can't find the original, but here is basically what it was referring to

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011228052_tsunamilocal02m.html

I would like to think that none of the scientists wanted merely to have their names put into the news. In fact while I was watching the News they didn't have any scientists names on the news.

I'm pretty sure that the original report by the NOAA was that there would be 'tidal surges' with waves up to 3 feet. So the government issued a warning of waves up to 6 feet to hawaii. I don't see anything wrong with this at all. Predicting tsunamis isn't really an exact science yet and most of the systems in place to measure such activity are in their infancy.

It's much better that the government learned something from the last tsunami caused in the area as well as heed the scientists advice... better then the other option of possibly having a NEW lesson to be learnt.

Would you have rathered that they had just listened to the scientists? They only have to be wrong one time and it's all gone down the drain...
 
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  • #34
zomgwtf said:
I would like to think that none of the scientists wanted merely to have their names put into the news. In fact while I was watching the News they didn't have any scientists names on the news.

I'm pretty sure that the original report by the NOAA was that there would be 'tidal surges' with waves up to 3 feet. So the government issued a warning of waves up to 6 feet to hawaii. I don't see anything wrong with this at all. Predicting tsunamis isn't really an exact science yet and most of the systems in place to measure such activity are in their infancy.

It's much better that the government learned something from the last tsunami caused in the area as well as heed the scientists advice... better then the other option of possibly having a NEW lesson to be learnt.

Would you have rathered that they had just listened to the scientists? They only have to be wrong one time and it's all gone down the drain...
From what I read, there was never anything to indicate that the waves would be able to get any higher than first predicted (very small) due to the circumstances of the earthquake, it was too deep. For NOAA to exaggerate the problem against the scientific evidence was wrong, I agree with the scientists that NOAA went too far overboard. I agree, the next time there is a danger, people are going to be less responsive.
 
  • #35
hypatia said:
The 8.8-magnitude earthquake that jolted Chile on Saturday was felt as far away as São Paulo. But NASA scientists are proposing that its repercussions are truly global in a geophysical sense: it likely shifted the Earth's axis by about eight centimeters.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=how-the-earthquake-in-chile-changed-2010-03-02

I've just seen some interesting work on local displacements. I'm basing this post on the preliminary measurements reported at OSU research news (Ohio State University). Linky: http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/chilequakemap.htm. The greatest displacements measured were near the city of Concepción, which has moved 3.04 meters to the west. Wow!

Here's the displacement field from that link, attached.
Chile_EQ_SAM1a.jpg
 
  • #36
The 8.8 earthquake that struck Chile last month moved the city of Concepcion 10 feet to the west and shifted cities across the continent, according to GPS data.
or about 3.3 m.

http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/digest.msp?id=2312
 
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  • #37
Astronuc said:
or about 3.3 m.

http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/digest.msp?id=2312

10 feet is exactly 3.048 meters. The inch is, by definition, 2.54 centimeters exactly. (Official conversions at NIST)

The original scientific work uses meters, or centimeters. The actual displacement given by the scientists is 3.039 m, at current; though it will continue to be remeasured. If you look at that link you have given, there's a diagram you can click to enlarge. The largest displacement is given there as 303.9 cm.

The American public prefers "feet", so in many releases this is converted to imperial units, and 3.04 m is very close to 10 feet.

Cheers -- sylas
 
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  • #38
Thanks for the correction, I was thinking of the number of 3.28084 ft/m, and flipped the conversion.
 
  • #39
Astronuc said:
Thanks for the correction, I was thinking of the number of 3.28084 ft/m, and flipped the conversion.
C'mon you two. If someone challenges me to a duel at 10 feet, the precision is not much of an issue. What is at issue is how much of the infrastructure is compromised or more prone to failure due to that shift.
 
  • #40
turbo-1 said:
C'mon you two.

But heee started it! :biggrin:

Seriously though, you're right, of course.. although I'll continue to correct mathematical errors like this and I am sure others will do the same for me. I hope so!

Primarily, however, I was amazed at the amount of horizontal displacement involved. Many times earthquakes involve a significant vertical displacement as well, but I have not seen that reported in this case. The magnitude of any associated tsunami is, I would guess, also affected by the kinds of displacement shifts involved with earthquake.

Also interesting... Charles Darwin was in Chile in 1835, and experienced a massive earthquake, which also left Concepción in ruins, and resulted in tsunamis. I read his account of that in "Fossils, Finches and Fuegians", by Richard Keynes; a very readable account of the adventures on the Beagle. Darwin was very interested and competent in geology, and though in those days they did not have the capacity to measure horizontal displacements, they were able to estimate vertical shifts by comparing high water marks before and after. Fitzroy, the captain of the Beagle, was also interested in this, and determined that the Island of Santa Maria (a few miles south of Concepción) had been permanently raised, by about 8ft in the south and 10ft in the north. (Feet were acceptable for scientists in those days.*)

See also http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/02/did-darwin-predict-chilean-quake.html" , by Richard Kerr, in Science Now, February 27, 2010. Lots of interesting technical details.

Cheers -- sylas

*PS. Added in edit. Sorry turbo-1, I'm just teasing here. We tend to do that to mericans in this neck of the woods. This wasn't worth a whole new post, though, hence this edit.[/size]
 
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  • #41
sylas said:
Fitzroy, the captain of the Beagle, was also interested in this, and determined that the Island of Santa Maria (a few miles south of Concepción) had been permanently raised, by about 8ft in the south and 10ft in the north. (Feet were acceptable for scientists in those days.)Cheers -- sylas
Feet are still acceptable for scientists! I prefer moderately fast speeds to be expressed in miles per hour, but if you drop into much smaller speeds, furlongs per fortnight is an acceptable rate of displacement.
 
  • #42
Science (AAAS) has an article, Researchers in Chile Hit Hard by Quake, by Jocelyn Kaiser and Antonio Regalado - March 5, 2010. Very sad news. Makes me cry.

Scientists at research universities in several Chilean cities are reeling from last week's earthquake, which overturned microscopes, set fire to laboratories, washed years of research out to sea, and took the life of a young marine biologist. Aftershocks are still rattling the country.

The worst damage reported was to the University of Concepción, near the epicenter of the 8.8 magnitude quake. There a fire ravaged the building housing one of Chile's leading chemistry centers (see photo), including a lab studying advanced polymers. "It's still standing, but it burned completely," said Jaime Baeza, the university's vice-rector for research, reached by cell phone in Concepción. No injuries were reported because the quake took place early Saturday and most of the 100 or so students and faculty were on vacation. But valuable equipment was lost, Baeza says, and "the quake may have set us back 3 or 4 years, even 10 years."

Because other research buildings may have sustained structural damage, faculty are not yet being allowed back into their labs to rescue what might be left of research projects, Baeza said..

A note on the Web site of CONICYT, Chile's main science funding agency, says (translated): "It is a tremendous loss for us, for the country, and for science to see years of investigation destroyed."

continued...
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2010/03/researchers-in-chile-hit-hard-by.html

Good news is that there was a recent article from March 5, 2010 by Jocelyn Kaiser and Antonio Regalado from Science. A snippet from it.

The ESO [The European Southern Observatory- regarding 'its next giant facility, the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT)] site selection report declared that all of the five short-listed sites had very good seeing conditions and each had particular strengths. But the panel chose to tap Cerro Armazones in Chile because it had good all-around sky quality and could be managed in an integrated fashion with the nearby VLT on Cerro Paranal. The ESO Council will consider the report at its next meeting in June, taking into account its recommendations and "all other relevant factors," ESO says. Supporters of La Palma like to point out a number of relevant factors, including the seismic risk of sites in Chile. Although all of ESO's facilities in Chile came through the recent earthquake unharmed—they are all far from the epicenter—the extra cost of making them earthquake-proof is a substantial proportion of their cost, Burgos says, adding that the seismic risk on La Palma is much lower.
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2010/03/place-mammoth-telescope-on-our-i.html

I really hope Chili is picked! :smile:
 
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  • #43
ViewsofMars said:
I really hope Chili is picked! :smile:

I am thrilled to announce that Chili has been picked! :biggrin:

E-ELT Site Chosen
World’s Biggest Eye on the Sky to be Located on Armazones, Chile
26 April 2010


On 26 April 2010, the ESO Council selected Cerro Armazones as the baseline site for the planned 42-metre European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT). Cerro Armazones is a mountain at an altitude of 3060 metres in the central part of Chile’s Atacama Desert, some 130 kilometres south of the town of Antofagasta and about 20 kilometres from Cerro Paranal, home of ESO’s Very Large Telescope.

“This is an important milestone that allows us to finalise the baseline design of this very ambitious project, which will vastly advance astronomical knowledge,” says Tim de Zeeuw, ESO’s Director General. “I thank the site selection team for the tremendous work they have done over the past few years.”

ESO’s next step is to build a European extremely large optical/infrared telescope (E-ELT) with a primary mirror 42 metres in diameter. The E-ELT will be “the world’s biggest eye on the sky” — the only such telescope in the world. ESO is drawing up detailed construction plans together with the community. The E-ELT will address many of the most pressing unsolved questions in astronomy, and may, eventually, revolutionise our perception of the Universe, much as Galileo's telescope did 400 years ago. The final go-ahead for construction is expected at the end of 2010, with the start of operations planned for 2018.

The decision on the E-ELT site was taken by the ESO Council, which is the governing body of the Organisation composed of representatives of ESO’s fourteen Member States, and is based on an extensive comparative meteorological investigation, which lasted several years. The majority of the data collected during the site selection campaigns will be made public in the course of the year 2010.

[Please read on . . . ]
http://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1018/
 

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