1: Note that at the start of the section entitled "What about potential energy?", in the first sentence where that exponential factor is introduced there is an arrow over the v, indicating that it refers to one specific velocity state. The probability to find a particle in that one state of (v
x, v
y, v
z) is indeed just the exponential factor. But this excludes other states with the same velocity magnitude in a different direction. That argument I mentioned before with the sphere doesn't apply because you have nailed down not just the magnitude of the velocity, but all three of its components.
So P(
v) ~ e^(-E/kT), (note that I'm using underline to indicate a vector).
But P(|v|) ~ |v|
2e^(-E/kT), because the area of a sphere of radius |v| is proportional to |v|
2.
As a sort of aside, you may notice that the velocity distribution is proportional to |v|
2 (and therefore E) whereas the energy distribution was proportional to √E. This is because to get from the v distribution to the E distribution, you also need to divide by dE/dv, the details of this will be discussed in a derivation of the maxwell Boltzmann distribution for energy.
Later in that same paragraph, the author is again using just the e^(-E/kT) formula to talk about variation of the density of a gas with height. This works because the potential is just U = mgh, there are the same number of position states at every h, so the density of states is constant with respect to h. If, for example, you were considering a situation where a planet has an extremely thick atmosphere, then you would need to consider it because the number of available position states will scale with (h+R)
2 where R is the planet's radius. In the case of the Earth, R is about 6,000 km and most of the atmosphere is below 10 km, so it's okay to ignore the effect of varying density of states (the fact that temperature goes down with altitude will be more significant anyway).
I think that the final few sentences of that section are a little misleading. The author writes:
That is, the probability of a molecule having total energy E is proportional to e^(-E/kT).
I don't agree with this line, I think it would be more correct to say:
The probability of a molecule being in state X is proportional to e^(-EX/kT), where EX is the energy of state X.
The way it is written suggests that it applies when considering all states with energy E, which I don't think is correct.
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2: In the second link you posted, the author mostly discusses Boltzmann statistics in very general terms (if we are looking at the same part of it). The case of velocities of gas particles is only mentioned quite briefly, and it is explained that the origin of that extra v
2 term is indeed the density of states:
The statistical behavior of many-particle systems is described by the product of the density of states and the distribution function for these states...
For the speed of molecules in a gas, however, the density of states can be modeled as an effective "volume" in "velocity space" which gives it the form...