pervect said:
do you have a reference for this point?
I can try to dig one up, but AFAIK the models that generate the predictions for which Hulse and Taylor won the Nobel prize, and similar predictions for other binary pulsars, assume geodesic orbits, so the fact that they match the data so well is strong evidence that the binary pulsars are in fact traveling on geodesic orbits, at least to a very, very good approximation.
pervect said:
I would think that the momentum and energy carried away by the gravitational radiation would cause departures of the non-test particle from a geodesic.
No, they just mean that the geodesics are geodesics of the full spacetime geometry including the effects of gravitational waves, rather than the geodesics of an idealized Schwarzschild geometry without gravitational waves, which are the kinds of orbits we intuitively think about when we think about orbiting objects.
pervect said:
It's easy enough to come up with a test particle orbit that does not decay
Sure, if you ignore the effects of gravitational waves. But if you include those effects, the spacetime geometry is no longer Schwarzschild, so the non-decaying geodesic orbits you are intuitively thinking of no longer exist.
If, OTOH, you just mean that if all we have is one massive body with test particles orbiting it, there are no gravitational waves period and the geometry is just the static Schwarzschild geometry, that I agree with. But it's irrelevant to the case under discussion.
pervect said:
if a massive body could follow the same non-decaying orbit and still emit gravitational radiation
Which it can't. You are right that this would violate energy conservation. But the energy being conserved here is not what you appear to think it is. See below.
pervect said:
I don't see how energy-at-infinity could be conserved.
Energy at infinity is only a conserved quantity along a geodesic orbit if the spacetime is stationary. If gravitational waves are present, the spacetime is not stationary, so there is no such conserved quantity.
The only conserved energy in the case we are discussing, a spacetime with gravitational waves but which is still asymptotically flat, is the ADM energy of the spacetime as a whole. But that's not the same as energy at infinity for an orbiting object. If an object could follow a non-decaying geodesic orbit in a spacetime containing gravitational waves, then the ADM energy would not be conserved (heuristically, because the non-decaying orbit would be making a constant contribution to the ADM energy, while the gravitational waves would be making an increasing contribution--whereas if the orbit is decaying, its contribution to the ADM energy decreases, by the same amount that the gravitational wave contribution increases).