...And I have a bridge I’d like to sell you!OmCheeto said:
No thanks.chemisttree said:
| CFR | Disease |
| ~1% | Mumps encephalitis |
| ~1% | Pertussis |
I was thinking about death cases. Perhaps the virus spread by animals? The high fatalities on animal-human infection, less fatalities on Human-human infection. And human-animal reversal infection impossible?OmCheeto said:
GIGO is GIGO regardless of province. I only believe the numbers that have absolutely no connection to China at this point. And that indicates its easy to transmit, a large fraction of patients have a mild case with minimal symptoms and a fairly low death rate if heroic measures are employed. The first patient in the US was given Remdesivir for crying out loud! How many in China have that level of care? Mumps and pertussis have effective vaccines. Danger isn’t even in the same league, in my opinion. |
chemisttree said:
kadiot said:
Thanks. This is understood. However, community outbreak seems inevitable because, look, in the Philippines, the Department of Health (DOH) started the contact tracing coverage (4 seats in front and 4 seats in back of the patient on the plane, which is appropriate for droplet transmission protocols. They contacted 100% of those guys within 48 hours (the 17% of the ENTIRE plane). It was later that they MODIFIED it to include the whole plane in case the patient MAY have walked around. Close contact definitions preclude casual contact but they expanded it TO BE SURE. Problem is how DOH-investigators will be able to trace the movement of infected persons from the time the plane landed to the discovery of infection. This is of course an ideal case scenario, and would never happen in actual reality, but going to fictitious extremes sometimes puts certain things into a better perspective. Any lapses on tracing movement means there is a possibility of spread then it will multiply. Now, let's go back to Singapore setting, why not make it a given that outbreak is inevitable? What would be the next step? I think, that way, we have a better chance of winning this fight. Hunting on a Patient Zero merely distract us from the larger and more important task like containment and treatment.chemisttree said:
Making a vaccine is pretty easy. Showing that it is safe and effective is the hard part (manufacturing and distributing mass quantities is also hard).kadiot said:
With AI and other advanced technology, would it be possible to develop vaccines and release them immediately whilst still being safe?Ygggdrasil said:
WHO is saying “do not mislead.”Mary Conrads Sanburn said:
Looks like the weather factor is not so plausible. A virus can leave only inside an organic cell unlike bacteria which can live in many different environments. A virus can only replicate from inside a human cell it successfully penetrate. A virus cannot live by itself unlike a bacteria.BWV said:
How do you think AI would help speed up this process?kadiot said:
The flu has clear seasonal patterns in places with seasons. It's not so much how the virus reacts to the temperature, it's how the people react to it: Spend more time indoors, in closer contact with others, and so on.kadiot said:
13 of the 72 cases are linked to the Grace Assembly of God church. When these 13 sneezed surely no one will say, "God bless you". It's good that the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Singapore, which oversees 32 Catholic churches around the island, advised parish priests and the lay communities that all other public events with large numbers of people attending, such as faith formation sessions, retreats and seminars and the Mass should be suspended. Very wise and timely decision by the Archbishop Goh! Holy water isn’t magic. If it’s contaminated, it’s contaminated.chemisttree said:
I'm not sure what temperature they can't withstand.chirhone said: