COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

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Containment efforts for the COVID-19 Coronavirus are facing significant challenges, with experts suggesting that it may no longer be feasible to prevent its global spread. The virus has a mortality rate of approximately 2-3%, which could lead to a substantial increase in deaths if it becomes as widespread as the flu. Current data indicates around 6,000 cases, with low mortality rates in areas with good healthcare. Vaccine development is underway, but it is unlikely to be ready in time for the current outbreak, highlighting the urgency of the situation. As the outbreak evolves, the healthcare system may face considerable strain, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and response efforts.
  • #151
OmCheeto said:
There are 9 provinces with 2600 confirmed cases, yet no deaths.
...And I have a bridge I’d like to sell you!
 
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  • #152
chemisttree said:
...And I have a bridge I’d like to sell you!
No thanks.

Btw, did you notice that if you ignore the numbers out of Hubei, the mortality rate in China and the rest of the world matches very closely. I found that interesting.

Screen Shot 2020-02-13 at 11.56.09 PM.png


This is also interesting. In wiki's "List of human disease case fatality rates", they've got lots of "tildes". I'm guessing that means there's some variability to be expected.
CFRDisease
~1%Mumps encephalitis
~1%Pertussis

Ha! I just noticed COVID-19 already has an entry:

CFR: 2% according to China's Ministry of Health. Other estimates range from 0.1% to 15%.

I guess my new 0.5% estimate fits in there.
 
  • #153
OmCheeto said:
There are 9 provinces with 2600 confirmed cases, yet no deaths.
At the Hubei rate of 1 death per 37 cases, 70 of those people should be dead.
The mortality rate in the remaining 20 provinces, is about 1 death per 160 confirmed cases.
I was thinking about death cases. Perhaps the virus spread by animals? The high fatalities on animal-human infection, less fatalities on Human-human infection. And human-animal reversal infection impossible?
 
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  • #154
Instead of those speculations I would rather suspect the local authorities first: nobody wants to end like Wuhan (city), so things will be kept under the rug as long as possible.
 
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  • #155
OmCheeto said:
Btw, did you notice that if you ignore the numbers out of Hubei, the mortality rate in China and the rest of the world matches very closely. I found that interesting.

GIGO is GIGO regardless of province. I only believe the numbers that have absolutely no connection to China at this point. And that indicates its easy to transmit, a large fraction of patients have a mild case with minimal symptoms and a fairly low death rate if heroic measures are employed. The first patient in the US was given Remdesivir for crying out loud! How many in China have that level of care?

Mumps and pertussis have effective vaccines. Danger isn’t even in the same league, in my opinion.
 
  • #157
chemisttree said:
...The first patient in the US was given Remdesivir for crying out loud! How many in China have that level of care?
...

I don't know, as they didn't provide a number.

U.S. officials confirmed last week that physicians in Wuhan, China, have begun testing an experimental drug called remdesivir on Coronavirus patients.

[ref: Washington Post]
 
  • #158
kadiot said:
How can "patient zero" be from Singapore? Singapore does not have exotic meats market.

It’s obviously a person to person transmission. There were Wuhan attendees at the conference.
 
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  • #159
chemisttree said:
It’s obviously a person to person transmission. There were Wuhan attendees at the conference.
Thanks. This is understood. However, community outbreak seems inevitable because, look, in the Philippines, the Department of Health (DOH) started the contact tracing coverage (4 seats in front and 4 seats in back of the patient on the plane, which is appropriate for droplet transmission protocols. They contacted 100% of those guys within 48 hours (the 17% of the ENTIRE plane). It was later that they MODIFIED it to include the whole plane in case the patient MAY have walked around. Close contact definitions preclude casual contact but they expanded it TO BE SURE. Problem is how DOH-investigators will be able to trace the movement of infected persons from the time the plane landed to the discovery of infection. This is of course an ideal case scenario, and would never happen in actual reality, but going to fictitious extremes sometimes puts certain things into a better perspective. Any lapses on tracing movement means there is a possibility of spread then it will multiply. Now, let's go back to Singapore setting, why not make it a given that outbreak is inevitable? What would be the next step? I think, that way, we have a better chance of winning this fight. Hunting on a Patient Zero merely distract us from the larger and more important task like containment and treatment.
 
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  • #161
Another positive developments for treating Covid-19

 
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  • #162
kadiot said:
I hope this is already true. But it looks like they already have the vaccine before the virus was released.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/california-lab-coronavirus-vaccine-3-hours
Making a vaccine is pretty easy. Showing that it is safe and effective is the hard part (manufacturing and distributing mass quantities is also hard).

The article says that the company plans to start phase I trials (the shortest and easiest of the three phases of clinical testing) in the summer, when hopefully the outbreak is already abating.
 
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  • #163
Ygggdrasil said:
Making a vaccine is pretty easy. Showing that it is safe and effective is the hard part (manufacturing and distributing mass quantities is also hard).

The article says that the company plans to start phase I trials (the shortest and easiest of the three phases of clinical testing) in the summer, when hopefully the outbreak is already abating.
With AI and other advanced technology, would it be possible to develop vaccines and release them immediately whilst still being safe?
 
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  • #164
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  • #167
BWV said:
a real test will be if the virus established itself in warmer clients like Singapore and India, which would imply that it won't simply go away with spring like a typical flu virus
Looks like the weather factor is not so plausible. A virus can leave only inside an organic cell unlike bacteria which can live in many different environments. A virus can only replicate from inside a human cell it successfully penetrate. A virus cannot live by itself unlike a bacteria.
 
  • #168
kadiot said:
With AI and other advanced technology, would it be possible to develop vaccines and release them immediately whilst still being safe?
How do you think AI would help speed up this process?
 
  • #169
kadiot said:
Looks like the weather factor is not so plausible. A virus can leave only inside an organic cell unlike bacteria which can live in many different environments. A virus can only replicate from inside a human cell it successfully penetrate. A virus cannot live by itself unlike a bacteria.
The flu has clear seasonal patterns in places with seasons. It's not so much how the virus reacts to the temperature, it's how the people react to it: Spend more time indoors, in closer contact with others, and so on.
 
  • #170
I hope the situation improves and the Coronavirus manace disappears by April or May. My nightmare is reading one day this tweet "We are now facing a global threat the likes of which the world has never seen before. But rest assured they will be met by fire and brimstone..."

Can normal fire destroy viruses? what temperature before they are extinguished?
 
  • #171
Author :Dr Takeshi Kasai
Regional Director for the Western Pacific
World Health Organization

Coronavirus outbreak shows Asia needs to step up infection preparation

Region is safer after epidemic lessons but new diseases always arising


15 January 2020

[. . .]

###
https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/commentaries/detail-hq/china-virus-outbreak-shows-asia-needs-to-step-up-infection-preparation
 
  • #172
Singapore appears to be experiencing geometric growth with cases doubling every 6-7 days. Same with Japan but that includes the cases from the cruise ship which complicates things a bit.

If it holds in Singapore, they will be at ~100 cases in 3 or 4 days. If they have an asymptomatic super spreader things will develop quickly. Not good news.
https://www.gov.sg/article/covid-19-cases-in-singapore

I have been so impressed with the Singapore Government’s transparency and flow of information. Really a model for how outbreaks should be handled!
 
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  • #173
Doesn't look very exponential to me. The linear fit is not worse than the exponential one:

singapore.png
 
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  • #174
The first 20 cases were imported and should be excluded from the curve fitting probably.
 
  • #175
If you just take the last 10 days you can fit anything to it. A linear fit works very well for them.
 
  • #177
chemisttree said:
Singapore appears to be experiencing geometric growth with cases doubling every 6-7 days.
13 of the 72 cases are linked to the Grace Assembly of God church. When these 13 sneezed surely no one will say, "God bless you". It's good that the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Singapore, which oversees 32 Catholic churches around the island, advised parish priests and the lay communities that all other public events with large numbers of people attending, such as faith formation sessions, retreats and seminars and the Mass should be suspended. Very wise and timely decision by the Archbishop Goh! Holy water isn’t magic. If it’s contaminated, it’s contaminated.
 
  • #178
chirhone said:
Can normal fire destroy viruses? what temperature before they are extinguished?
I'm not sure what temperature they can't withstand.
 
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  • #179
Did 2019-nCoV originate in a Wuhan government research lab? A new paper by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao points to the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan CDC is just 300 yards from the seafood market and they were studying a SARs type Coronavirus in bats.

The principle investigator participated in a project which generated a chimeric virus using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, and reported the potential for human emergence 10. A direct speculation was that SARS-CoV or its derivative might leak from the laboratory.'

The report here. Get it while you can...
 
  • #180
That paper literally presents no data other than a picture from Google maps showing that the lab is close to the seafood market. Other researchers have reported finding coronaviruses in pangolins that are 99% similar to the 2019-nCov, providing a much more plausible explanation for the current outbreak: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00364-2

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Please exercise more skepticism before posting conspiracy theories here.
 

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