COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[chemisttree]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00364-2

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Please exercise more skepticism before posting conspiracy theories here.

I would caution you as well. The claims you posted are backed up by... nothing. A press conference. Unpublished research? Maybe they have conducted a pair by pair analysis or maybe they have just looked at it under an electron microscope and judged it to be 99% identical?

“Molecular biological detection revealed that the positive rate of Betacoronavirus in pangolins was 70 percent among the small number of samples analyzed. Researchers further observed its structure with an electron microscope. They found that the sequence of the Coronavirus strain assembled from metagenomes was 99 percent identical to that of infected people in the recent Coronavirus outbreak.”

Huh?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Here's the relevant quote from the Nature article:

Now, the South China Agricultural University in Guangzhou says that two of its researchers, Shen Yongyi and Xiao Lihua, have identified the pangolin as the potential source of nCoV-2019 on the basis of a genetic comparison of coronaviruses taken from the animals and from humans infected in the outbreak and other findings. The sequences are 99% similar, the researchers reported at press conference on 7 February.

I agree that the question of the origin of the Coronavirus is not yet solved and we should await publication of the results suggesting pangolin as an intermediary vector for the present outbreak. However, this finding has been reported on by a reputable scientific news outlet and represents a more plausible explanation in the absence of other data linking the virus to other origins.

 

[OmCheeto]

Here's the relevant quote from the Nature article:

I agree that the question of the origin of the Coronavirus is not yet solved and we should await publication of the results suggesting pangolin as an intermediary vector for the present outbreak. However, this finding has been reported on by a reputable scientific news outlet and represents a more plausible explanation in the absence of other data linking the virus to other origins.

I'm curious, are humans on the list of potential source species?
Or is that a stupid question?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I'm curious, are humans on the list of potential source species?
Or is that a stupid question?

COVID-19 can be transmitted person-to-person, so in that sense, you can consider humans a source of the virus. Most of the new infections occurring around the world are likely due to human-to-human transmission rather than animal-to-human transmission. One worry among epidemiologists is that the virus will become endemic and human hosts will continue to spread the disease in the future.

However, COVID-19 had not been seen in humans before late 2019, so scientists have been trying to understand where the virus responsible for the disease originally came from. Nearly all new human viruses come about from transmission of a virus from animals to humans (e.g. HIV, ebola, bird flu, to name some recent examples). Comparing virus sequences isolated from various individuals shows very little variation among different isolates, suggesting a very recent transmission from animals to humans. Because the virus is a coronavirus, and bats are a known reservoir of coronaviruses, scientists suspected that bats might be an origin, and indeed, the virus looks genetically similar to coronaviruses found in bats (see for example, this Nature paper for comparison of the genetics of the novel Coronavirus outbreak to several bat Coronavirus species).

However, we have observed in previous Coronavirus outbreaks that intermediary species were involved (e.g. in the case of the SARS outbreak, it is thought that a bat Coronavirus infected civet cats and was transferred to humans, and in the MERS outbreak, it is thought that bats infected camels who infected humans). Intermediary species could have allowed the virus to adapt to a host more similar to humans than bats, making it easier for the viruses to infect humans and spread person-to-person (many viruses cannot be spread between species and many of those that do, cannot efficiently be transmitted person-to-person). As mentioned above, preliminary research suggests pangolins as a plausible intermediary species for the COVID-19 coronavirus, though the results have not yet been published in a peer reviewed journal.

 

[OmCheeto]

Intermediary species could have allowed the virus to adapt to a host more similar to humans than bats ...

Ding ding ding ding ding!

Having zero formal training in biology, my knowledge of diseases generally focuses on ones I've been infected with. A while back, I came down with a fungal lung infection. The one I suspected, killed just about every mammal it came in contact with, including dolphins!
Fungi only need to adapt to a warm moist environment, while viruses need a specific cellular host.

Thanks!

 

[StatGuy2000]

I see a lot of panic-sounding messaging regarding COVID-19 (the new coronavirus). Perhaps it's important to see the current epidemic in perspective. Here is an interesting Scientific American article on this topic.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-new-coronavirus-compare-with-the-flu/

 

[chirhone]

I see a lot of panic-sounding messaging regarding COVID-19 (the new coronavirus). Perhaps it's important to see the current epidemic in perspective. Here is an interesting Scientific American article on this topic.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-new-coronavirus-compare-with-the-flu/

Very glad to know the COVID-19 stuff is not an ELE.

Also how come the flu viruses can't be eradicated?

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

I found this interesting:

The International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine

The Novel Coronavirus: A
Bird's Eye View
Parham Habibzadeh1, Emily K. Stoneman2

[ . . .]

The novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, which initially began in China, has spread to

many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day.

With a death toll exceeding that of the SARS-CoV outbreak back in 2002 and 2003 in China,

2019-nCoV has led to a public health emergency of international concern, putting all health

organizations on high alert. Herein, we present on an overview of the currently available in-

formation on the pathogenesis, epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis, and treatment

of this virus.

[. . . ]

Vol 11, Num 2:April 2020
###
https://www.theijoem.com/ijoem/index.php/ijoem/article/view/1921/1195

 

[chemisttree]

I see a lot of panic-sounding messaging regarding COVID-19 (the new coronavirus). Perhaps it's important to see the current epidemic in perspective. Here is an interesting Scientific American article on this topic.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-new-coronavirus-compare-with-the-flu/

China has shut down and quarantined a huge fraction of their population, perhaps 700-800 million people. They did this quite early but probably not early enough. It has spread to dozens of other countries and is seems to be undergoing exponential growth in new cases in at least one and perhaps two of them. Heroic measures of isolation and ICU measures are required for a large fraction of cases, enough to overwhelm the medical system of the advanced health care system in China. The WHO has declared an emergency. China is on a wartime footing fighting this! Our own experts are warning of 60-70% infection rates in the not too distant future worldwide with 70-80 million deaths expected.

Are we not supposed to be concerned because of the flu we know? A virus I can easily innoculate against?

 

[OmCheeto]

...
Our own experts are warning of 60-70% infection rates in the not too distant future worldwide with 70-80 million deaths expected.
...

What article did you read these numbers in?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Also how come the flu viruses can't be eradicated?

Essentially, this happens because the influenza virus mutates fairly rapidly, making it difficult for people to acquire long-term immunity to the disease. This is why you can acquire the flu multiple times throughout your lifetime (compared to some other diseases, like chickenpox, where being infected confers close to life-long immunity to subsequent infection), and why you should get a new flu vaccine every year. Many have worked to try to develop "universal" flu vaccines to counter all strains of influenza, but no one has been successful yet.

Furthermore, influenza can reside in other species (e.g. birds and pigs have spread influenza to humans in the past), so even if we could eradicate influenza from human populations, the possibility of acquiring new influenza strains from wild reservoirs would still exist.

 

[chirhone]

Essentially, this happens because the influenza virus mutates fairly rapidly, making it difficult for people to acquire long-term immunity to the disease. This is why you can acquire the flu multiple times throughout your lifetime (compared to some other diseases, like chickenpox, where being infected confers close to life-long immunity to subsequent infection), and why you should get a new flu vaccine every year. Many have worked to try to develop "universal" flu vaccines to counter all strains of influenza, but no one has been successful yet.

Furthermore, influenza can reside in other species (e.g. birds and pigs have spread influenza to humans in the past), so even if we could eradicate influenza from human populations, the possibility of acquiring new influenza strains from wild reservoirs would still exist.

I remember some microbes are present in our skin or bodies and when our immune system gets weak, it increases in size, is this true for the flu viruses, present in our body?

If the COVID-19 virus becomes as common as the flu. Then it will be part of everyone too? Only the mortality will be 4 times?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I remember some microbes are present in our skin or bodies and when our immune system gets weak, it increases in size, is this true for the flu viruses, present in our body?

No, flu viruses or coronaviruses will not lay dormant in one's body. Some viruses, like HIV, that insert their DNA into the cells they infect, however, can lay dormant in the body and reactivate at a later time.

If the COVID-19 virus becomes as common as the flu. Then it will be part of everyone too? Only the mortality will be 4 times?

COVID-19 has the possibility of becoming quite widespread as it seems to be easily transmitted person-to-person, people have no pre-existing immunity, and no vaccine is available. Current observations suggest that while the vast majority (~80%) of those infected experience only mild symptoms, about 15% require hospitalization and about 2% could die from the disease. These numbers for hospitalizations and mortality are higher than for the typical seasonal flu, and could strain the healthcare resources of even developed nations if faced with outbreaks like those seen in Hubei province.

However, it is worth noting that we have been able to contain outbreaks of viruses that are similarly contagious as COVID-19 (e. g. the
2003 SARS outbreak in China, which was caused by a similar coronavirus), so well executed public health efforts to quarantine the infected and trace contacts can be effective in stopping the spread of the virus.

 

[chirhone]

No, flu viruses or coronaviruses will not lay dormant in one's body. Some viruses, like HIV, that insert their DNA into the cells they infect, however, can lay dormant in the body and reactivate at a later time.
COVID-19 has the possibility of becoming quite widespread as it seems to be easily transmitted person-to-person, people have no pre-existing immunity, and no vaccine is available. Current observations suggest that while the vast majority (~80%) of those infected experience only mild symptoms, about 15% require hospitalization and about 2% could die from the disease. These numbers for hospitalizations and mortality are higher than for the typical seasonal flu, and could strain the healthcare resources of even developed nations if faced with outbreaks like those seen in Hubei province.

However, it is worth noting that we have been able to contain outbreaks of viruses that are similarly contagious as COVID-19 (e. g. the
2003 SARS outbreak in China, which was caused by a similar coronavirus), so well executed public health efforts to quarantine the infected and trace contacts can be effective in stopping the spread of the virus.

2% is quite low fatality rate. If there were 10 billion humans and all got infected. Only 200 million would die. Not even 1 billion. So it's not a global catastrophic event..

Dozens of years back. The scare is ebola that can get airborned. Why didn't ebola become airborne? What's the mortality rate of ebola (this is to get perspective of the Coronavirus thing).

 

[Ygggdrasil]

200 million deaths is quite a lot of people. By comparison, World War II, the deadliest war in human history, killed about 85 million.

The 1918 Spanish flu is often seen as a global catastrophe, and probably killed 1-5% of the Earth's population at the time. Hopefully, this is not a worst case scenario for COVID-19.

For comparison, ebola has close to a 50% mortality rate. See this post for a nice graphic from the New York Times comparing COVID-19 to other viruses: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/wuhan-coronavirus.983707/post-6293570

 

[mfb]

@Chemistree: As this is a recent event we don't require peer review for everything but that doesn't mean every source is equally valid. The daily mail is a tabloid without any measurable quality and researchgate hosts everything without filters. Please don't use them as references here.

China has shut down and quarantined a huge fraction of their population, perhaps 700-800 million people.

Do you have a credible source for that? They have some restrictions in many places now, but that's not "shut down" or a quarantine.

However, it is worth noting that we have been able to contain outbreaks of viruses that are similarly contagious as COVID-19 (e. g. the
2003 SARS outbreak in China, which was caused by a similar coronavirus), so well executed public health efforts to quarantine the infected and trace contacts can be effective in stopping the spread of the virus.

SARS spread much slower.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

According to this infographic from the NYT, SARS has a similar r_0 as COVID-19:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html

However, the graphic is somewhat old, so the r_0 estimate for COVID-19 may be put off date. I agree that the outbreak has seemed to spread more quickly, though this could reflect some of the different circumstances of the outbreaks. SARS was thought to emerge in among farmers in 2003, when China was much less modern and interconnected (both domestically and internationally). In contrast, COVID-19 emerged in a large city of 11 million with travel connections throughout the region and the world. Furthermore, rapid tests for the virus did not exist during the SARS outbreak and it is thought that China hid many of the cases, so it can be difficult to directly compare the numbers from the two outbreaks.

However, I do agree that the current data on COVID-19 present a pessimistic outlook for containment of the virus.

 

[StatGuy2000]

China has shut down and quarantined a huge fraction of their population, perhaps 700-800 million people. They did this quite early but probably not early enough. It has spread to dozens of other countries and is seems to be undergoing exponential growth in new cases in at least one and perhaps two of them. Heroic measures of isolation and ICU measures are required for a large fraction of cases, enough to overwhelm the medical system of the advanced health care system in China. The WHO has declared an emergency. China is on a wartime footing fighting this! Our own experts are warning of 60-70% infection rates in the not too distant future worldwide with 70-80 million deaths expected.

Are we not supposed to be concerned because of the flu we know? A virus I can easily innoculate against?

Of course we should be concerned -- if you think I'm not concerned, then you are resorting to straw-manning.

But frankly, your posts on this thread sound far more like panic. And when has panic ever done any good? Especially for a problem on which we don't have full knowledge of (even the quotes about the 60-70% infection rates are educated guesses, and the 70-80 million deaths are also estimates).

My stance is not to be overly concerned about problems for which we don't have control over, and to stay informed using the most accurate, reputable sources available.

[Aside: even from the information we've gathered thus far, it is far from clear that the growth rate in COVID-19 infections is actually exponential. It is certainly possible that better screening and testing techniques are identifying asymptomatic people or those who are only experiencing mild symptoms. This will also impact what the actual fatality rate of COVID-19]

 

[kadiot]

Of course we should be concerned -- if you think I'm not concerned, then you are resorting to straw-manning.

But frankly, your posts on this thread sounds far more like panic. And when has panic ever done any good? Especially for a problem on which we don't have full knowledge of (even the quotes about the 60-70% infection rates are educated guesses, and the 70-80 million deaths are also estimates).

My stance is not to be overly concerned about problems for which we don't have control over, and to stay informed using the most accurate, reputable sources available.

I agree that panic doesn't solve anything.
However, worry is about the future. Telling people not to worry about an emerging infectious disease because it isn’t a significant risk here and now is foolish. For example ... We want people to worry about measles when there’s very little measles around, so they will take the precaution of vaccinating their children before it’s imminently necessary. We want people to worry about retirement when they’re years away from retiring, so they will start saving now. We should be worst case scenario thinker so we keep the people vigilant through risk communication process . Transparency is equally important so people won’t be surprised with one death. One death is bad enough . A second death would be awful.

 

[StatGuy2000]

I agree that panic doesn't solve anything.
However, worry is about the future. Telling people not to worry about an emerging infectious disease because it isn’t a significant risk here and now is foolish. For example ... We want people to worry about measles when there’s very little measles around, so they will take the precaution of vaccinating their children before it’s imminently necessary. We want people to worry about retirement when they’re years away from retiring, so they will start saving now. We should be worst case scenario thinker so we keep the people vigilant through risk communication process . Transparency is equally important so people won’t be surprised with one death. One death is bad enough . A second death would be awful.

@kadiot, you seem to misunderstand my stance. I am not saying that we should not worry or be concerned at all. What I am saying is that we should conserve our worries and concerns to things that we have actual control over.

The examples you gave above are exactly those situations where we can take specific actions. For example, with measles, a vaccine is available so that we can vaccinate ourselves and our children to prevent outbreaks. Saving money for retirement is an action we have control over.

In the case of the current Coronavirus outbreak, there is very little we can do at an individual level to try to prevent an infection beyond what general hygienic practices to prevent other infections, such as frequent hand-washing and sanitizing door handles. So why should I expend my precious emotional resources in worrying or panicking about this?

BTW, I also fully agree with you that transparency is important to ensure that the public is kept aware of the situation regarding the Coronavirus and ensure public trust, as well as mitigate panic and conspiracy theories which can do far more harm than good.

 

[Rive]

Are there any news/researches/findings about typical secondary infections associated with the disease?

 

[kadiot]

@kadiot, you seem to misunderstand my stance. I am not saying that we should not worry or be concerned at all. What I am saying is that we should conserve our worries and concerns to things that we have actual control over.

The examples you gave above are exactly those situations where we can take specific actions. For example, with measles, a vaccine is available so that we can vaccinate ourselves and our children to prevent outbreaks. Saving money for retirement is an action we have control over.

In the case of the current Coronavirus outbreak, there is very little we can do at an individual level to try to prevent an infection beyond what general hygienic practices to prevent other infections, such as frequent hand-washing and sanitizing door handles. So why should I expend my precious emotional resources in worrying or panicking about this?

BTW, I also fully agree with you that transparency is important to ensure that the public is kept aware of the situation regarding the Coronavirus and ensure public trust, as well as mitigate panic and conspiracy theories which can do far more harm than good.

Got your point. With no vaccine or treatment, the most effective way to stop Covid-19's spread is to limit transmission by identifying infected individuals as quickly as possible and isolating them for treatment before they can infect others.

This strategy worked against the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2003. Global and national health authorities are implementing the approaches used during the SARS crisis, but, other measures also need to be taken because Covid-19 is already on its peak in China.

 

[Rive]

This strategy worked against the SARS...

As far as I know in this case the majority of the infected actually has just relatively mild symptoms, what might even be suppressed (fever).
Also, the routes of infections are not exactly clear, and the illness might be contagious before the first symptoms.
This is not SARS at all in that regard. The chances to suppress the outbreak does not looks very optimistic at this point.

 

[StatGuy2000]

As far as I know in this case the majority of the infected actually has just relatively mild symptoms, what might even be suppressed (fever).
Also, the routes of infections are not exactly clear, and the illness might be contagious before the first symptoms.
This is not SARS at all in that regard. The chances to suppress the outbreak does not looks very optimistic at this point.

We might not be able to "suppress" the outbreak, but it is still possible to identify and isolate infected individuals and slow down the spread, particularly outside China, which should provide us with more time to develop a vaccine, or even to develop anti-viral medications that could either treat the infection, or at the very least mitigate against the most severe symptoms like pneumonia in patients most at-risk.

 

[kadiot]

First antiviral drug approved to fight COVID-19

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1229781/first-antiviral-drug-approved-to-fight-covid-19

 

[kadiot]

I have a feeling the Covid-19 virus can rest in surfaces then we touch it and fly through aircon ducts (cold air) and inhale it...just my gutfeel. Basis is Wuhan is cold and many infected outside, inside bldgs. The cruise ship's high rate of infection...enclosed, confined with limited precautions to protect humans from the virus...because not a hospital. Not only Chinese get hit anymore...also caucasians, Asians too...in the same environement, the ship. What's in the ship that is common for all passengers of different nationalities? And most of the tourists are seniors. The crew are not. And WHO is silent on this or any other institution. Perplex.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

“The disruption is enormous.” Coronavirus epidemic snarls science worldwide

By Robert F. Service Feb. 17, 2020 , 4:35 PM

Normal daily life has come to a virtual standstill in large parts of China as a result of the epidemic of COVID-19—and so has science. Universities across the country remain closed; access to labs is restricted, projects have been mothballed, field work interrupted, and travel severely curtailed. But scientists elsewhere in the world are noticing an impact as well, as collaborations with China are on pause and scientific meetings for the next five months have been canceled or postponed.

The damage to science pales compared to the human suffering; the total number of cases has risen to 71,429, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported today, almost 99% of them in China, and there have been 1775 deaths. Still, for individual researchers the losses can be serious—and stressful. “Basically, everything has completely stopped,” says John Speakman, who runs an animal behavior lab at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in Beijing that has effectively been shut since the Lunar New Year on 25 January. “The disruption is enormous. The stress on the staff is really high.” But Speakman says he understands why the Chinese government took the measures. “It’s annoying, but I completely support what they have done,” he says.

[ . . . ]

###
A MUST READ:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...coronavirus-epidemic-snarls-science-worldwide

It takes my breathe away~

 

[kadiot]

“The disruption is enormous.” Coronavirus epidemic snarls science worldwide

By Robert F. Service Feb. 17, 2020 , 4:35 PM

Normal daily life has come to a virtual standstill in large parts of China as a result of the epidemic of COVID-19—and so has science. Universities across the country remain closed; access to labs is restricted, projects have been mothballed, field work interrupted, and travel severely curtailed. But scientists elsewhere in the world are noticing an impact as well, as collaborations with China are on pause and scientific meetings for the next five months have been canceled or postponed.

The damage to science pales compared to the human suffering; the total number of cases has risen to 71,429, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported today, almost 99% of them in China, and there have been 1775 deaths. Still, for individual researchers the losses can be serious—and stressful. “Basically, everything has completely stopped,” says John Speakman, who runs an animal behavior lab at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in Beijing that has effectively been shut since the Lunar New Year on 25 January. “The disruption is enormous. The stress on the staff is really high.” But Speakman says he understands why the Chinese government took the measures. “It’s annoying, but I completely support what they have done,” he says.

[ . . . ]

###
A MUST READ:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...coronavirus-epidemic-snarls-science-worldwide

It takes my breathe away~

I am skeptic about objective science in a totalitarian state. When national security is at stake, science in China serves the interests of the Party.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

HEALTHCARE
FEBRUARY 16, 2020 / 5:37 AM / 2 DAYS AGO
BRIEF-Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical says receives approval to start selling Coronavirus treatment - company filing
Feb 16 (Reuters) - Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co Ltd :

* RECEIVES APPROVAL TO START SELLING FAVIPIRAVIR AS POTENTIAL TREATMENT FOR NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - COMPANY FILING

* SAYS MUST STILL CONTINUE CLINICAL TRIALS AFTER FAVIPIRAVIR HITS MARKET AS POTENTIAL CORONAVIRUS TREATMENT - COMPANY FILING Source text in Chinese: here Further company coverage: (Reporting by Josh Horwitz; Editing by Alison Williams)

https://www.reuters.com/article/bri...avirus-treatment-company-filing-idUSB9N28T00Z

 

[chirhone]

Regarding https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/17/health/novel-coronavirus-surfaces-study/index.html

1. Children seems to be not affected by the novel-coronavirus. Do you know of a child who does? I know I read about the newly born baby infected with it. But how about older children?

2. It mentioned that "These human coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, have been found to persist on inanimate surfaces -- including metal, glass or plastic surfaces -- for as long as nine days if that surface had not been disinfected, according to research published earlier this month in The Journal of Hospital Infection."

Can anyone share how exactly a virus on a surface behave day by day until it is destroyed? Does ambient heat does it or maybe it starves? But viruses don't need food. How do they die? Illustrations with graphics appreciated. Thanks.