Regarding lack of indications, found this, what is your interpretation of this?
A perspective on potential antibody-dependent enhancement of SARS-CoV-2"At present, there are no known clinical findings, immunological assays or biomarkers that can differentiate any severe viral infection from immune-enhanced disease, whether by measuring antibodies, T cells or intrinsic host responses. In vitro systems and animal models do not predict the risk of ADE of disease, in part because protective and potentially detrimental antibody-mediated mechanisms are the same and designing animal models depends on understanding how antiviral host responses may become harmful in humans. The implications of our lack of knowledge are twofold. First, comprehensive studies are urgently needed to define clinical correlates of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2. Second, because ADE of disease cannot be reliably predicted after either vaccination or treatment with antibodies—regardless of what virus is the causative agent—it will be essential to depend on careful analysis of safety in humans as immune interventions for COVID-19 move forward."
Tweet by David Speigelhalter: "Latest PHE data: https://gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 Out of 257 Delta deaths, 118 (46%) fully vaxxed, 92 (36%) unvaxxed. What we would expect with high coverage by very effective – but not perfect – vaccine."Here's data with divided by age (Table 5, p16-17)
Unvaccinated: 71 deaths / 1267 Delta cases = 5.6%
2 doses: 116 deaths / 5234 Delta cases = 2.2%
Vaccine effectivess for preventing deaths ~ 60% (Oh, so low? But doesn't say how many days after 2 doses)
Unvaccinated: 21 deaths / 70664 Delta cases = 0.03%
2 doses: 2 deaths / 5600 Delta cases = 0.036% (OMG I hope I've made absolutely silly mistakes in calculating)
A 90-year-old Belgian woman who died from COVID-19 in March contracted both the UK and South African strain simultaneously, researchers said at a press conference on Sunday.
Her case, which was discussed at this year's European Congress on Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases (ECCMID) as part of Belgian research, is believed to be the first of its kind.
The woman, who reportedly was not vaccinated, got sick in March and was treated at a hospital close to Brussels, according to Belgian broadcaster VRT.
I'm not sure about natural infection, but for the vaccines (say Pfizer) they reduce infection (asymptomatic and symptomatic) by about 85-95% for the alpha variant, and by about 60-80% for the Delta variant.Are the variants so different that you can catch more than one at once, but the same vaccine works to prevent all? So, if you had the UK type, you could then apparently catch another variant because you would not have immunity, or is the difference that the woman caught both at the same time with no prior immunity to either?
We must all get vaccinated. The Delta variant just makes it more urgent. But even before the variant really took off, at least in the UK (and because we use the same vaccines), likely Aus as well. achieving herd immunity was going to be difficult:
I think it may now be out of reach without second-generation vaccines targeting Delta and boosters:
Lots of questions!
A woman in Belgium after simultaneously contracting two different Covid variants.
@Ygggdrasil or @atyy Are the variants so different that you can catch more than one at once, but the same vaccine works to prevent all? So, if you had the UK type, you could then apparently catch another variant because you would not have immunity, or is the difference that the woman caught both at the same time with no prior immunity to either?
It's accepted that this virus spreads through an aerosol - though the particle size is so small (smaller than tobacco smoke), I prefer to call it a "colloidal dispersion". There is every reason to expect that the density of that COVID "smoke" will track the viral load in the index patients respiratory track. And therefore, we should expect that the smoke is 1000 times the "viral load".Viral load is roughly 1,000 times higher in people infected with the Delta variant than those infected with the original coronavirus strain, according to a study in China.
During a June outbreak in Australia, where the virus had been previously well controlled despite an extremely low vaccination rate, New South Wales Health Minister Jeroen Weimar warned that transmission had occurred with only “fleeting contact” between individuals. For example, contact tracing and genomic sequencing showed that a woman in her 70s was infected while sitting outside a cafe visited by “Patient Zero,” an airport limo driver. In another instance, the virus seems to have been transmitted in the time it took for two unmasked strangers to pass each other in a shopping center, an encounter captured by mall security cameras.
When analyzing the number of overall COVID-19 cases reported by the DPH between July 10 and July 16, the breakthrough cases account for 43.4 percent of all new COVID-19 cases.
Massachusetts doctors say the biggest cause is the arrival of the COVID-19 delta variant, which is twice as infectious than the original virus.
Delta is more transmissible, but I'm skeptical of some of these specific ideas, especially the claims of transmission with fleeting contact. We have known since April 2020 that COVID-19 can be spread through aerosols in some circumstances, especially when ventilation is poor (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067728v1). There is not any good evidence that one has to worry about aerosols much more with Delta than with the original strain - ie. all non-pharmaceutical precautions for the original strain (safe distancing, mask wearing, ventilation, hand washing) should still work with Delta, and if you got infected with Delta, it doesn't mean that if you did the same thing, you would not have had a good chance of getting infected with the original strain - take a look at this report: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33732749/. Before believing in the fleeting contact claim, I'd like to see something like sequencing data with good contact tracing.It's accepted that this virus spreads through an aerosol - though the particle size is so small (smaller than tobacco smoke), I prefer to call it a "colloidal dispersion". There is every reason to expect that the density of that COVID "smoke" will track the viral load in the index patients respiratory track. And therefore, we should expect that the smoke is 1000 times the "viral load".
For the original COVID, virus trackers would look for an exposure time of about 15 minutes. If you divide that by 1000, you get an infection from a single breath!
Here is another reason I'm skeptical of the "fleeting contact" claim, which comes mainly from Australia. They made the same hypothesis with B.1.617.1 (Kappa). In fact the link given in the MIT article for the "fleeting contact" hypothesis refers to the Kappa variant, not the Delta variant. However, data suggests that the Kappa variant is not much more transmissible than Alpha (about which one would not take "fleeting contact" claims seriously).For the original COVID, virus trackers would look for an exposure time of about 15 minutes. If you divide that by 1000, you get an infection from a single breath!
There are some indications that it really is that potent.
From a recent MIT article:
Also, there's an estimate that currently 1% of the UK population has the Delta variant. If it could be passed on reliably with fleeting contact, then the numbers would be out of control. Whereas, the numbers appear to be settling down in the UK (to about 50,000 per day). In fact, if anything, the numbers are starting to fall.Here is another reason I'm skeptical of the "fleeting contact" claim, which comes mainly from Australia.
KU has been turning down between one and six acute patients each day. If they had not been doing so, staff would be treating about 100 such patients, Stites said. Increasing COVID-19 infections could exacerbate the problem.
Missouri health officials on Wednesday reported the highest daily increase in infections since mid-January with 2,995 additional cases. The Missouri Independent, a news organization covering the state, reported that the seven-day average of cases rose to 2,144 per day, up “one-third in seven days and more than triple the average of June 21.”
https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/w...uld-i-keep-wearing-my-mask-once-im-vaccinatedSo we should also expect that this variant will be much hard to contain. If you know someone who is immune compromised, it could be very difficult to protect them from exposure.
It also means that anyone who was hoping to ride this out without getting either vaccinated or infected is likely playing a loosing game.
WOW. I would have thought to get both doses and immunity to build will only take a few weeks (I think 5 weeks for Pfizer). You can strongly isolate during that time, so it may still be worth it. Here in Aus, it now is a race. NSW cant get Delta under control and are pushing vaccination hard. It is no surprise - its R0 is 5. So they think it is what should be done. We will need to wait and see.In Alabama, a doctor has been telling her COVID-19 patients that it is too late to get the vaccine, and she tells some before they are intubated.
New Zealand has paused quarantine-free travel between all of Australia from 11.59pm tonight:
In Alabama, a doctor has been telling her COVID-19 patients that it is too late to get the vaccine, and she tells some before they are intubated.
There's important context here. The comment by @Astronuc refers to a doctor addressing patients who are in a very serious condition with COVID-19.WOW. I would have thought to get both doses and immunity to build will only take a few weeks (I think 5 weeks for Pfizer). You can strongly isolate during that time, so it may still be worth it. Here in Aus, it now is a race. NSW cant get Delta under control and are pushing vaccination hard. It is no surprise - its R0 is 5. So they think it is what should be done. We will need to wait and see.
Although Delta appears to be more contagious than other variants, it does not appear to be more severe. One recent study from Scotland suggests the Delta variant is about twice as likely as Alpha to result in hospitalization in unvaccinated individuals, but other data has shown no significant difference.
Patel said research is ongoing to determine whether the strain leads to higher-than-expected deaths or hospitalizations.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/w...tions-after-father-died/ar-AAMtMer?li=BBnb7KzAmanda Beinborn and her family had wanted to investigate vaccines further before deciding whether to get one. However, before she could find out more, the 20-year-old tested positive in June and her family members quickly followed suit.
Beinborn told News4Jax that said she was sick for four days before her parents and brother became ill too. She said her father, Dennis Beinborn, 55, was admitted to the ICU on July 3 and died on July 19 from the disease.
In Arkansas, Angela Morris was left distraught when her 13-year-old daughter, Caia Morris Cooper, was put on a ventilator at Arkansas Children's Hospital in Little Rock, where she is fighting for her life.
She had resisted vaccinations for her and her daughter because she thought that masks and staying at home would suffice.
since when was I a psychiatrist?As explained in the link, a national emergency has been declared here in Aus. We MUST vaccinate as quickly as we can. Preferably with Pfizer, but the AZ vaccine must be used as well. I have no issue with AZ because even getting out of bed has a 2.5 in a million risk of dying - greater than the now 1 in a million risk of dying from AZ. Rational commentators all agree it is plain silly to hold out for Pfizer. The issue is we are now doing over 1 million vaccinations a week, and increasing, so we can expect a death a week. We had 2 in the last week. They naturally get a lot of news coverage that scares the bejesus out of people, and out goes rationality. @StevieTNZ is a psychiatrist and may wish to comment on the psychiatric phenomena involved here.
A Louisiana man who contracted COVID-19 and wound up hospitalized said he would rather be ill than get vaccinated against the coronavirus.
The father and small-business owner recently caught COVID-19 and developed pneumonia, but he said he still would not have gotten vaccinated if that meant he could have prevented the infection.
"I would have gone through this, yes sir," Roe, , told CBS News' David Begnaud. "Don't shove it down my throat. That's what local, state, federal administration is trying to do - shove it down your throat."
When Begnaud asked what was being shoved, Roe said, "Their agenda is to get you vaccinated."