COVID Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[jim mcnamara]

Preprint of case studies, plus review of recent new infections.

"Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2.full.pdf

I am not sure about methods and some claims of multi-reinfections. Before I come to a solid position we need a peer reviewed study. More data and reports are going to start appearing soon, so we can get corroboration that way as well.

Bottom line per report:
Omicron is more transmissible and has a higher reinfection rate than previously seem in other variants.

 

[Astronuc]

Omicron is more transmissible and has a higher reinfection rate than previously seem in other variants.

Nevertheless, the surge around the US at the moment seems to be predominantly Delta variant.

New York State has had a second day over 11,000 new positive cases, and nearly 50 fatalities per day for the last three days.

California reported 7,612 new cases and 127 new fatalities today.

Texas reports 2005 new confirmed cases (and another 1006 probable cases), and 74 new fatalities, however, Texas had some days without reporting.

Similarly, in Florida, some days are missing, and they report on a weekly basis. For the week ending Dec 2, Florida reported 10,892 new positive cases (an increase of ~1250 from the previous week), 35 new deaths.

 

[jim mcnamara]

@Astronuc
My quote was from the paper - your examples show a surge, so do theirs. Let's wait until we get better research results. Or at least a peer review. The reason I posted was to head off chicken little posts. - the sky is not falling. I guess I was not clear

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...common-cold-coronavirus-study-says/ar-AARscA9

The omicron variant is likely to have picked up genetic material from another virus that causes the common cold in humans, according to a new preliminary study, prompting one of its authors to suggest omicron could have greater transmissibility but lower virulence than other variants of the coronavirus.

pre-print
https://osf.io/f7txy/

 

[Evo]

Wow.

• In Norway, a Christmas party turned into an Omicron "super spreader event," with up to 60 possible infections.
• The party on November 26 was organized by renewable energy company Scatec, which also has operations in South Africa.
  
  At least one person who attended the party had recently returned from South Africa, according to multiple reports.
  
  All attendees were fully vaccinated and had tested negative before the event, Reuters said.
  
  Fifty people who attended the party had positive PCR tests for coronavirus, while another ten have tested positive on lateral flow tests, according to the Norwegian state broadcaster NRK.
  
  After sequencing, health authorities have confirmed that 13 of the cases were the Omicron variant, and more are expected to be confirmed, Reuters reported.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/corporate-christmas-party-turned-biggest-132307836.html

 

[Astronuc]

Speaking of spreader events, the gentlemen from Minnesota (fully vaccinated + booster) met up with 30 or so friends at the convention in NY City. The friends came from other locations/states. Now, it appears 15 have tested positive for SARS-Cov-2, but variants are not yet known, so could be Delta or Omicron.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/world/omicron-anime-convention-nyc.html
Also reported by WP - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/03/nyc-anime-covid-omicron/

Questions remain as to who was the initial infection in the group, and did they bring it to NY City, or contract in NY City. Folks traveled on 18 or 19 Nov, convention started 19 Nov and ended 21 Nov, and the Minnesota man presented symptoms and tested positive on 22 Nov, which could mean as little as 3 days or less for incubation. An related attendee has tested positive for SARS-Cov-2, but doesn't know if his sample was tested for variant type.

From NY Times article:

Dr. Ted Long, who oversees the city’s contact tracing program, said that he was aware of five positive cases so far among New York City residents who attended the anime convention. But he said it was not yet known if those people had been infected by Omicron or Delta, nor was the convention known to be the site where they had gotten sick.

Meanwhile, on 2 Dec, the governor and NY City mayor have indicated 5 Omicron cases: 1 in NY City (Manhattan?), 1 in Brookly, 2 in Queens, and 1 in Suffolk County. The last was a 67-year old woman who had recently returned from southern Africa, and she had mild symptoms.

Prof. Anne von Gottberg from S. Africa has indicated a previous infection of SARS-Cov-2 does not provide much protection from infection by the Omicron variant.

A now a twist - The new COVID-19 variant had cases in Europe prior to the South African announcement, and is said to have at least 50 mutations.
https://www.insideedition.com/omicr...ns-and-started-in-europe-before-south-african

The new variant of the coronavirus, called Omicron, was first identified in Europe, according to Dutch health authorities.

The dates on the cases discovered by the RIVM health institute — from November 19 and November 23 — showed that the variant was already spreading by the time the first cases were found from passengers that flew in from South Africa.

 

[valenumr]

Speaking of spreader events, the gentlemen from Minnesota (fully vaccinated + booster) met up with 30 or so friends at the convention in NY City. The friends came from other locations/states. Now, it appears 15 have tested positive for SARS-Cov-2, but variants are not yet known, so could be Delta or Omicron.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/world/omicron-anime-convention-nyc.html
Also reported by WP - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/03/nyc-anime-covid-omicron/

Questions remain as to who was the initial infection in the group, and did they bring it to NY City, or contract in NY City. Folks traveled on 18 or 19 Nov, convention started 19 Nov and ended 21 Nov, and the Minnesota man presented symptoms and tested positive on 22 Nov, which could mean as little as 3 days or less for incubation. An related attendee has tested positive for SARS-Cov-2, but doesn't know if his sample was tested for variant type.

From NY Times article:Meanwhile, on 2 Dec, the governor and NY City mayor have indicated 5 Omicron cases: 1 in NY City (Manhattan?), 1 in Brookly, 2 in Queens, and 1 in Suffolk County. The last was a 67-year old woman who had recently returned from southern Africa, and she had mild symptoms.

Prof. Anne von Gottberg from S. Africa has indicated a previous infection of SARS-Cov-2 does not provide much protection from infection by the Omicron variant.

A now a twist - The new COVID-19 variant had cases in Europe prior to the South African announcement, and is said to have at least 50 mutations.
https://www.insideedition.com/omicr...ns-and-started-in-europe-before-south-african

My impression at this point is that it has been going around for a while, but we only now now what to look for. I'm not at all aware how the variant monitoring works from country to country though. It's just that the current data seems to indicate that current detections abroad don't fit the timeline that the SA case in question is the index case.

 

[kyphysics]

re: spread

At this point, there are too many stories of new cases popping up here and there for me to keep track of. Lots more cases just recently reported within the U.S.

I pretty much assume it's everywhere now (or soon to be). Once it was found on both coasts (NY and CA) and then in the Mid-West, I figured it's just a matter of time before it's in every state.

 

[Twigg]

Age Group of 0-4 years old in a SA metro seeing huge rise in hospitalizations.
3rd Wave: ~15 hospitalizations vs.
4th Wave: ~110 hospitalizations

Age Group of 5-9 years old
3rd Wave: ~7 hospitalizations vs.
4th Wave ~20 hospitalizations

Age Group of 10-19 years old
3rd Wave: ~10 hospitalizations vs.
4th Wave: ~45 hospitalizations

Age Group of 20-29 years old
3rd Wave: ~20 hospitalizations
4th Wave: ~120 hospitalizations

Look at a reversal as you get higher in age? Is it due to the elderly having a higher vaccination rate maybe? Other factors going on? It's interesting.

Just want to point out that these numbers aren't normalized in any way and are just raw numbers of patients admitted. Can't infer anything yet. To make any claim about the effect on different age groups, we'd need these numbers normalized by how many people were exposed per age group. The numbers we see being admitted could just reflect a university outbreak. As you say, it also doesn't indicate anything about vaccination rates in different age groups. This sucks though :/ Stay safe everyone!

 

[jim mcnamara]

One of the problems with similar US data like the above in @Twigg 's post is that the US with similar datasets on average does genomic analysis on less than ~1% of positive tested samples. So we can say little accurately about Omicron variant spread until we do some serious testing.

I do not know why this is true. Data Source: Daniel Webster MD PhD, Optum NYC

 

[kyphysics]

 

[pinball1970]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...common-cold-coronavirus-study-says/ar-AARscA9

pre-print
https://osf.io/f7txy/

That's good news? Spreads very quickly out runs more dangerous variants and is less likely to put you in hospital?

 

[nsaspook]

That's good news? Spreads very quickly out runs more dangerous variants and is less likely to put you in hospital?

Good is relative. This early data could have been a lot worse.
https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

It is essential to recognize that the patient information presented here only represents the first two weeks of the Omicron wave in Tshwane. The clinical profile of admitted patients could change significantly over the next two weeks, by which time we can draw conclusions about the severity of disease with greater precision.

A snapshot of 42 patients in the ward on 2 December 2021 reveals that 29 (70%) are not oxygen dependent. These patients are saturating well on room air and do not present with any respiratory symptoms. These are the patients that we would call ‘incidental COVID admissions’, having had another medical or surgical reason for admission. Thirteen (13) patients are dependent on supplemental oxygen of which nine (21%) have a diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia based on a combination of symptoms, clinical signs, CXR and inflammatory markers. All are being prescribed steroids as the mainstay of therapy. The remaining 4 patients are on oxygen for other medical reasons (2 previously on home oxygen, 1 in heart failure and 1 with a confirmed diagnosis of Pneumocystis Pneumonia).
This is a picture that has not been seen in previous waves. In the beginning of all three previous waves and throughout the course of these waves, there has always only been a sprinkling of patients on room air in the COVID ward and these patients have usually been in the recovery phase waiting for the resolution of a co-morbidity prior to discharge. The COVID ward was recognizable by the majority of patients being on some form of oxygen supplementation with the incessant sound of high flow nasal oxygen machines, or beeping ventilator alarms.

There are only 4 patients in high care and one in the ICU. The numbers of patients in high care on double oxygen, High Flow Nasal Oxygen or non-invasive ventilation (NIV) were noticeably higher in previous waves. This is anecdotal but confirmed by numerous clinicians who have previously worked in the COVID wards in the hospital complex.

Of 38 adults in the COVID wards on 2 December 2021, 6 were vaccinated, 24 were unvaccinated and 8 had unknown vaccination status. Of 9 patients with COVID pneumonia 8 are unvaccinated, 1 is a child. Only a single patient on oxygen was fully vaccinated but the reason for the oxygen was Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

 

[atyy]

The early South Africa cases suggest the Omicron cases are milder than those in previous waves, but that does not mean Omicron is milder for the unvaccinated. Some estimates are that about 80% of South Africa's population has been previously infected, and about 24% of the population vaccinated. So although previous infection or vaccination will protect much less against infection, they are expected to still largely protect against severe illness, which is consistent with the early data out of South Africa.

Even if previous infection or double vaccination largely protect against severe illness, rapid transmission amongst can lead to a surge in hospitalizations among those who have not been infected or vaccinated, and those who remain vulnerable despite vaccination.

So it is important to get eligible people vaccinated and boosted.

 

[pinball1970]

https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1038404/Technical_Briefing_30.pdf

The link above reports 32 Omicron cases on Friday 3rd, 4th Dec Guardian reported 160 cases and Sky 5th Dec yesterday reported 246 so it is living up to its reputation for high transmission.

Summary from Nature below 2nd of Dec on a few of the topics covered.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03614-z

One thing I was not aware of was waste water sampling in England, page 35-36 in the technical briefing.

 

[artis]

One thing I was not aware of was waste water sampling in England, page 35-36 in the technical briefing.

I thought this was common knowledge , it's been going on where I live too and for quite some time, in fact pretty much all this year and started in 2020,

One thing you can do is determine the approximate hospital admission count about 2 weeks ahead of time given how much "Covid piss" is sloshed down the pipes and then divide that concentration by the number of people/age groups in the city from which it was collected
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8421077/

Recently we had a third wave of delta and the labs predicted it would end in about 2 weeks based on the decreasing wastewater levels and "lo and behold" it did just that, now the numbers are back to pre wave levels for winter conditions

There are even studies coming out of how this excreted Covid virus and it's parts affect marine life
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34216962/

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

Latest data, looking good:

 

[Astronuc]

Forbes reports, "California was the first state to report a case of omicron Wednesday, and others have subsequently been found in Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin." The state of Georgia confirmed its first omicron case in an Atlanta resident who had recently traveled from South Africa, according to the newspaper Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Washington Post, NY Times and other news sources also published the same information.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/teakvetenadze/2021/12/05/omicron-detected-in-these-16-states/

The Washington Post reports that the Minnesota man contracted the Omicron variant after returning from NY City convention on 22 Nov. had received the Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) vaccine and Moderna booster. The booster was in early November. He was feeling tired/fatigue and otherwise mild symptoms, but he got a rapid test when a friend (one of the 15 friends?) tested positive.

New York state saw a drop in cases as of yesterday, but new cases are still fairly high compared to a month ago. As 5 Dec, New York state reports Total COVID-19 Patients 3,285 Hospitalized with 621 in ICU.
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary

In our area we see hospitalizations actually falling during the last 4 days after a recent peak, even though positive tests have increased. We expect the Delta variant to be dominant still, but there is no indication of the number of cases of break-through infections. Omicron has not yet been detected, but perhaps not every specimen is tested for type.

 

[kyphysics]

Give it one more week, Astronuc, and we may see the curve rise dramatically for Omicron in the U.S.

If memory serves me correct, we tend to lag Europe by about two weeks (eta: or, was it two months) for each wave (maybe with a few exceptions). As Europe goes, the U.S. often goes ...two weeks later.

Jim Bianco has some interesting charts/data on vax/booster rates:

 

[Astronuc]

USA Today reported, "Studies have shown that people in treatment for cancer, immunosuppressed after an organ transplant or weakened by HIV can remain infected with COVID-19 for months, while the Coronavirus accumulates changes that make it harder to wipe out.

No "patient zero" has been found for omicron or any other variant, but scientists think they likely evolved within a single immunocompromised person."

The headline stated "Where did the Coronavirus omicron variant come from? Scientists suggest it evolved in one person." However, it's clear that the person is unidentified.

Did Omicron incubate and evolve from the original Wuhan strain, or perhaps an alpha variant? Independent of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 (B.1.351)?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01285-x

I was trying to understand its evolution based on the first figure here -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

Sandra Ciesek reports via twitter:

Sandra Ciesek
@CiesekSandra
our first dates for Neutralization of Omicron versus Delta is done: 2x Biontech, 2x Moderna, 1xAZ / 1x Biontech after 6 months 0% neutralization with Omicron, also 3x Biontech 3 months after booster only 25% NT versus 95% with Delta. Up to 37 times the reduction in Delta vs. Omicron

Source:


via Google translate:
https://translate.google.com/?hl=de...ache Reduktion Delta vs. Omicron&op=translate

 

[Astronuc]

Here's another twist. The Omicron variant of SARS-Cov-2 apparently shares genetic code with a common cold coronavirus!

Nference, a biomedical company, released data revealing that omicron shares similar genetic material to HCoV-229E, a human Coronavirus that causes common cold symptoms. Researchers posit that omicron evolved from an individual who was "co-infected" with Sars-CoV-2 and HCoV-229E.

https://thehill.com/homenews/corona...-be-more-transmissible-due-to-sharing-genetic

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7204879/

 

[artis]

It will be interesting to see whether these "genetic adventures" of Covid as it changes more and more away from it's original form make it less severe. From current news I get that although it's different spike mutations make it more effective at evading vaccine and pre infection antibodies the actual infection outcomes seem somewhat promising, and by promising I mean not worse than delta perhaps lighter

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

BionTech held a press conference about vaccine against Omicron:

 

[Rive]

The Omicron variant of SARS-Cov-2 apparently shares genetic code with a common cold coronavirus!

First shift after the slow drift?

We may have lucked out this time, as apparently the key parts are still close enough to the original to leave cross-immunity in play.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.technologynetworks.com/...vs-pfizer-vaccine-first-data-available-356640

Next, the researchers looked at the ability to neutralize Omicron in two groups of individuals:

The individuals that had previously tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection did so in the first wave of the pandemic in South Africa, during which the prominent form of the virus was D614G.

Plasma samples were collected from each of the 12 participants.

“Geometric mean titer (GMT) FRNT50 (inverse of the plasma dilution required for 50% reduction in infection foci number) was 1321 for D614G,” the authors write in the paper. These samples therefore had very strong neutralization capabilities against this variant of SARS-CoV-2.

So what happens when the samples are tested against Omicron?

“GMT FRNT50 for the same samples was 32 for Omicron, a 41-fold decline,” the authors write.

While this figure might seem frightening, the researchers emphasize that neutralization escape by Omicron was not incomplete; five of the participants that had been previously infected – in addition to being vaccinated – demonstrated seemingly high neutralization titers against Omicron.
Click to expand...

Keep calm, get your booster and carry on
“It is important to interpret the data cautiously, as the investigators themselves point out. While the amount of virus-killing observed in the lab is reduced markedly – up to 40-times reduction – there is still measurable virus neutralization, especially in those who were vaccinated and previously infected,” Dr. Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular biology at the University of Nottingham, told the SMC. “This group effectively mimics what we would expect in people who had had two doses of vaccine plus a boost.”

https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v1-Sigal.pdf

 

[kyphysics]

It's been interesting to see people's predictive takes/fears/non-fears...

Some think E-Ding is closer to the alarmist side. But, he makes good arguments too.

 

[Astronuc]

New York state has reported as of December 4, 0.6% of new positive Covid-19 cases are of the Omicron variant. Counties with lower vaccination rates report higher rates of infection.

The state of Rhode Island is seeing a high rate of hospitalizations as is the state of Michigan.

The state [of Rhode Island] has one of the highest COVID-19 infection rates in the country, as the Northeast, including Massachusetts and Connecticut, have seen a surge in cases during colder weather.

Nearly 85% of all Rhode Islanders have gotten at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, according to state data. That includes over 96% of adults. While breakthrough cases have steadily increased in recent weeks, the vast majority of new cases are in unvaccinated people, state data shows. Under 7% of all patients hospitalized for COVID-19 have been fully vaccinated, according to state data.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...vid-19-cases-hospitalizations-rise/ar-AARGk2Z

this week Michigan had more patients hospitalized for Covid-19 than ever before. Covid-19 hospitalizations jumped 88% in the past month, according to the Michigan Health & Hospital Association.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c...king-a-toll-on-health-care-workers/ar-AARFiEX

"Since January, we've had about 289 deaths; 75% are unvaccinated people," Dover said. "And the very few (vaccinated people) who passed away all were more than 6 months out from their shot. So we've not had a single person who has had a booster shot die from Covid."

And, Michigan is reporting more cases in younger people.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Here's another twist. The Omicron variant of SARS-Cov-2 apparently shares genetic code with a common cold coronavirus! https://thehill.com/homenews/corona...-be-more-transmissible-due-to-sharing-genetic

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7204879/

The news that the Omicron variant shares genetic code with a seasonal Coronavirus comes from this non-peer reviewed manuscript posted on the website of a company founded by some of the authors:

Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 harbors a unique insertion mutation of putative viral or human genomic origin
https://nference.com/publications/YamgzBMAADIAxXym

Specifically, the claim comes from the fact that a specific 9 nucleotide insertion in the viral genome (ins214EPE) resembles the sequence found in a common cold-causing Coronavirus (specifically HCoV 229E). However, there are some major flaws in the authors' argument:

1. The sequence doesn't actually resemble any extant sequence in the virus genome. Here's the figure that the authors make showing the sequence:

The 9 nucleotide insertion in the Omicron genome matches the backwards sequence of the reverse complement of a sequence from the HCoV 229E genome. However, as anyone who has studied any molecular biology could tell you, 5'-GAGCCAGAA-3' is very different from 3'-GAGCCAGAA-5' and I don't think there would be a way for that backward sequence to recombine with Omicron to insert itself into the Omicron genome.

2. 9 nt is a very short sequence. Given that there are 4 different nucleotides, we would expect GAGCCAGAA to occur once every 4^9 = 262,144 nucleotides. The HCoV 229E genome is 27,271 nucleotides long, so it might be somewhat surprising to see that sequence in the HCoV 229E genome. However, it looks like the authors not only considered the sense strand of the HCoV 229E genome, but also its reverse complement and the backwards forms of each, giving a total of 109,084 nucleotides analyzed. Finding the occurrence of a 9 nt sequence that occurs once every 262,144 nt in 109,084 nt is not too surprising statistically and could reasonably occur by chance. Furthermore, the authors also likely considered the other endogenous common cold-causing coronaviruses, which even further increases the likelihood that they would find a match for the 9 nt insert by chance.

 

[kyphysics]

Thanks for sharing, Astronuc. Good info. to have!

The stat about no deaths from boostered people is pretty amazing.

 

[atyy]

However, as anyone who has studied any molecular biology could tell you, 5'-GAGCCAGAA-3' is very different from 3'-GAGCCAGAA-5' and I don't think there would be a way for that backward sequence to recombine with Omicron to insert itself into the Omicron genome.

That's the politest way I've seen of saying the paper is completely nonsensical.

 

[atyy]

UKHSA has released preliminary estimates of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic illness: 2x AZ ~ 0%, 2x Pfizer ~30%. Boosting AZ/AZ/BNT or 3xBNT ~70%. So boosting helps.

Protection against severe illness can remain high even if there are large falls in protection against symptomatic illness. No numbers yet, but anecdotal reports from South Africa are that Omicron still causes severe respiratory illness requiring ventilation, but that double vaccination is significantly protective against serious illness. Caveats even given that these are anecdotal, is that the likely Omicron cases are probably detected by SGTF in PCR tests, but SGTF is also present in a small percentage of Delta cases.

 

[StevieTNZ]

What about this gronk -- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid...lth-investigating/2ZDJLPLPM2NFG5KW5N4LEGRKWY/ -- who:

... was vaccinated against Covid-19 up to 10 times in one day on behalf of other people ...

Is he well and truly protected against Omicron, or (and I hope) suffer ill-effects of his stupidity?

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.reuters.com/world/afric...s-hospital-data-amid-omicron-wave-2021-12-10/

JOHANNESBURG, Dec 10 (Reuters) - South African scientists see no sign that the Omicron Coronavirus variant is causing more severe illness, they said on Friday, as officials announced plans to roll out vaccine boosters with daily infections approaching an all-time high.

South Africa alerted the world to Omicron late last month, prompting alarm that the highly mutated variant could trigger a new surge in global infections.Hospital data show that COVID-19 admissions are now rising sharply in more than half of the country's nine provinces, but deaths are not rising as dramatically and indicators such as the median length of hospital stay are reassuring.

Although scientists say more time is needed to arrive at a definitive conclusion, Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the signs on severity were positive."Preliminary data does suggest that while there is increasing rate of hospitalisation ... it looks like it is purely because of the numbers rather than as a result of any severity of the variant itself, this Omicron," he said.

 

[kyphysics]

UKHSA has released preliminary estimates of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic illness: 2x AZ ~ 0%, 2x Pfizer ~30%. Boosting AZ/AZ/BNT or 3xBNT ~70%. So boosting helps.

Protection against severe illness can remain high even if there are large falls in protection against symptomatic illness. No numbers yet, but anecdotal reports from South Africa are that Omicron still causes severe respiratory illness requiring ventilation, but that double vaccination is significantly protective against serious illness. Caveats even given that these are anecdotal, is that the likely Omicron cases are probably detected by SGTF in PCR tests, but SGTF is also present in a small percentage of Delta cases.

Hey, atty:

What are the distinctions between symptomatic illness, severe illness, and serious illness? I take the latter two to be synonymous and just two words for one concept.

Are we talking about any hospitalization and above for "severe" or "serious" illness? Or, would it require ICU-level hospitalization, etc.? I take symptomatic illness as just stuff like fatigue, running nose, cough, etc. But just thought I'd check. Thanks.

 

[atyy]

Hey, atty:

What are the distinctions between symptomatic illness, severe illness, and serious illness? I take the latter two to be synonymous and just two words for one concept.

Are we talking about any hospitalization and above for "severe" or "serious" illness? Or, would it require ICU-level hospitalization, etc.? I take symptomatic illness as just stuff like fatigue, running nose, cough, etc. But just thought I'd check. Thanks.

Usually symptomatic illness means testing positive with symptoms, even mild ones. You'd have to read the paper carefully to see how they defined it. It's possible the definition of symptomatic illness changes from study to study, especially if it depends on people figuring out whether they have mild symptoms or not. For example, a study in healthcare workers may pick up more symptomatic cases, because healthcare workers may be more conscientious in picking up their own mild symptoms, whereas others may just think they are a little "off" that day. Probably @berkeman will know better, since he's a healthcare worker :)

For severe illness and serious illness, I was sloppily meaning roughly the same thing in a non-technical sense (so hospitalization or worse). However, these are also technical terms. You can see one definition here: https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/overview/clinical-spectrum/.

 

[kyphysics]

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

UK has Omicron Covid patients in hospital, government confirms
Top UK medical adviser says growing number of people going to emergency departments diagnosed with Omicron
...
No deaths have been reported so far from Omicron, although it is just over two weeks since the variant was first detected in the UK, and there is normally a time lag of three to four weeks between infection and death, should that happen. “I think it’s too early to make any assumption at this point in time,” Hopkins said.

Source:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ovid-patients-in-hospital-government-confirms

 

[AlexCaledin]

Most of the 43 COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant identified in the United States so far were in people who were fully vaccinated, and a third of them had received a booster dose, according to a U.S. report published on Friday.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that of the 43 cases attributed to Omicron variant, 34 people had been fully vaccinated. Fourteen of them had also received a booster, although five of those cases occurred less than 14 days after the additional shot before full protection kicks in.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mo...ses-have-hit-fully-vaccinated-cdc-2021-12-10/

 

[kyphysics]

 

[Astronuc]

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that of the 43 cases attributed to Omicron variant, 34 people had been fully vaccinated. Fourteen of them had also received a booster, although five of those cases occurred less than 14 days after the additional shot before full protection kicks in.

From the same article,

Among the Omicron cases, 25 were in people aged 18 to 39 and 14 had traveled internationally. Six people had previously been infected with the coronavirus.

Most of them only had mild symptoms such as coughing, congestion, and fatigue, the report said, and one person was hospitalized for two days. Other symptoms reported less frequently including nausea or vomiting, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, diarrhea and loss of taste or smell.

Seems most of those cases identified as Omicron are relatively mild compared to Delta cases.

One should ask, 'how frequently are positive cases typed for variant?'

One factor not discussed is whether those infected wore masks to prevent infection and maintained distance in public places. Six of those people had previously been infected with the coronavirus, but the article doesn't indicate which variant(s). So, 'natural immunity' from previous infection doesn't necessarily work too well, eh?

Best to face SARS-Cov-2 with appropriate vaccinations.

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

At least one person in UK has died with Omicron, says Boris Johnson
PM says idea that Omicron is ‘milder version’ of virus should be set aside as he confirms death of patient from Covid variant

Source:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-uk-has-died-with-omicron-says-boris-johnson

 

[pinball1970]

reports suggest mass outbreaks after social gatherings – even among people who have had a Covid booster

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-to-be-infecting-britain-despite-the-vaccine

The vaccine does not stop you getting Covid Omicron or otherwise or passing it on, it reduces the risk of severe disease, hospitalization and death.

 

[kyphysics]

See bottom post 9).

One word: boosters

 

[hutchphd]

Yes it is complicated. This is actually a balanced presentation of the questions involved and concludes that we may need periodic boosters and that they do work. Nowhere does it yell "the sky is falling"

Credit to you for finally providing a reference that actually contains information.
.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

This concern [antibodies against the vaccine] applies only to the adenoviral vector vaccines (AstraZeneca or Johnson & Johnson) and not the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna). Because the AZ and J&J vaccines use viruses to introduce DNA encoding the spike protein into cells, there is a concern that the body could develop antibodies against the adenovirus and prevent subsequent doses of the adenoviral vaccine from delivering sufficient spike protein DNA to generate immunity. The concern is not that a booster dose of an AZ and J&J would reduce existing immunity to the virus, just that the booster dose would not be as effective at increasing the level of immunity.

However, these concerns are hypothetical (though well founded scientifically), and not currently supported by existing data. Studies of COVID booster shots have shown that, for individuals initially immunized with two doses of the AZ adenoviral vaccine, a booster dose of the AZ adenoviral vaccine (or boosting with other types of vaccine) are effective at boosting the levels of neutralizing antibodies (for example, see the study below):

Safety and immunogenicity of seven COVID-19 vaccines as a third dose (booster) following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BNT162b2 in the UK (COV-BOOST): a blinded, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext

Even if it is shown that the effeciveness of repeated boosters with adenoviral vaccines wanes due to immunity against the adenoviral vector, other vaccines are available to use as boosters (e.g. the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer or Moderna).

[Moderator's note: edited since it was an answer to a deleted post.]

 

[pinball1970]

The overwhelming evidence from the greatest mass Vaccine program on the planet says 1/It works (all of them with some variation) 2/ It is safe.
You never cite this part and seem to prefer mine quote and mine ref like a creationist looking for that fringe view, paper, comment.
This is just me as a neutral position, non Scientist. Just an observer. You may well be more qualified or in a Science position work wise rather than periphery than like me.
This is not a personal attack on you. It's a question regarding your ideas/position which is fair game.

[Moderator's note: edited since it was an answer to a deleted post.]

 

[Rive]

The vaccine does not stop you getting Covid Omicron or otherwise or passing it on...

At least a reduced transmission was expected, and as I recall it was observed too.
And this was a key point about keeping the speed new variants emerging with low (due lower number of copies/mutations).
I'll wait for more data, but an outbreak amongst vaccinated would be definitely a concern.

 

[berkeman]

Thread closed temporarily for Moderation...

 

[berkeman]

Thread is reopened. Thank you to @Ygggdrasil for the helpful reply.