COVID Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[valenumr]

Latest confirmed count in Hawaii is 12 cases. A 27 case outbreak of general Covid is being investigated as well, from a nightclub. They should be requiring proof of vaccination at the door, and local reporting hasn't indicated that they weren't, so far.

 

[atyy]

At least a reduced transmission was expected, and as I recall it was observed too.
And this was a key point about keeping the speed new variants emerging with low (due lower number of copies/mutations).
I'll wait for more data, but an outbreak amongst vaccinated would be definitely a concern.

Yes. But for Omicron, there's very much reduced antibody neutralization, and reduced protection against symptomatic infection. This is consistent with estimates that Omicron is more able to reinfect, so it's likely there are more breakthrough infections also. But it's possible that the prior infection or double vax still provides high protection against severe disease, which is thought to contribute to the Omicron wave in South Africa resulting in a lower percentage of cases being severe compared to previous waves. The ability to protect against severe disease may remain high even if neutralization is low, because there are other mechanisms involved such as T cells and non-neutralizing antibodies.

 

[jim mcnamara]

An anthropomorphic point about human immunity:

The first cells that act to kill infected cells are not something you want running around forever. Why? They can cause problems like immune diseases because they get "bored" with nothing to kill, and as soon as there is some kind of activity from an unrelated allergen (for example) making inflamed tissue - the lonely cells kick off a stream of chemicals that damages cells. Cells that should not be damaged. They are not the original target cells that should be zapped.

This is a way to think about about allergies and autoimmune responses.

Anyway, the immune system evolved to taper off production of killer cells so that this will not happen. It uses eicosanoids, in part, to do this. When all types of eicosanoids can be produced all is well. But. Eicosanoid production is ultimately dietary because it depends on the presence essential polyunsaturated fatty acids in the diet.

You can think of eicosanoids as the the inflammatory on/off switches at the cellular level.

Most of the "on switch" eicosanoid family derives from omega-6 fatty acids, like vegetable oils. The "off switch" eicosanoids mostly depend on omega-3 fatty acids, found in animal based fats. So, if you consume omega-6 without omega-3 you increase the likelihood of those nasty immune cells not getting the "stop". The reverse is probably true. Anyway. As a result, out of place inflammatory responses result. They are also involved in a lot of other regulatory pathways. Both types of fatty acids are required.

So, there is a LOT more to this:

The eicosanoids include the
prostaglandins (PG),
thromboxanes (TX),
leukotrienes (LT),
lipoxins (LX).

Here is a discussion of more extreme events - Eicosanoid storms

https://www.nature.com/articles/nri3859

 

[pinball1970]

At least a reduced transmission was expected, and as I recall it was observed too.
And this was a key point about keeping the speed new variants emerging with low (due lower number of copies/mutations).
I'll wait for more data, but an outbreak amongst vaccinated would be definitely a concern.

If the growth continues we will hit 1,000,000 cases by xmas (page 28)
https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf

10 in hospital 1 death so far

https://assets.publishing.service.g...0898/20211214_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview-1.pdf

Huge push for the booster programme, 24 million already boosted

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

Cutting out the 15 minute wait to increase flow too.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ith-mrna-vaccine-for-covid-19-uk-cmos-opinion

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...covid19-new-zealands-first-omicron-case-found

The first case of the Omicron Covid-19 variant has been found in New Zealand.
The case is in managed isolation in Christchurch, Stuff understands.
...
The Ministry of Health is expected to issue a statement about the case later on Thursday afternoon.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned Omicron is spreading at an “unprecedented rate” after being reported in 77 countries, and is likely to outpace Delta.

EDIT: further details have emerged: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...h-omicron-had-flown-from-germany-six-days-ago

 

[Astronuc]

New York State just reported the third highest daily number (18,276) of positive SARS-Cov-2 cases since March 2020. The highest daily case numbers were 19942 on 14 Jan 2021 and 18832 on 7 Jan 2021. The daily fatalities have increased from less than 10/day (during the summer) to more than 60/day (during the past week). Yesterday, 74 deaths due to Covid-19 were reported. The total confirmed death toll due to Covid-19 stands at 47370 with another ~13000 probable (those dying outside of a medical or care facility.

New York State will report on the variant distribution on 18 Dec. They report every two weeks.

I just listened to a talk by a pathologist who studies respiratory illnesses, and the doctor indicated that mortality in the US from SARS-Cov-2 is about 10x that of influenza.

Locally, in our county, we've gone from 1 death per month during the past summer to 1 death per day during the past week. Many folks have chosen to go without wearing masks in public, and it is still those 60+, who are immunocompromised, or have one or more comorbidities, who are at most risk for mortality. Locally, those hospitalized tend to be those who are unvaccinated.

 

[kyphysics]

Worrisome paragraph:
https://nypost.com/2021/12/16/columbia-university-finds-omicron-vaccine-resistance/

A new study out of Columbia University says the Omicron variant is “markedly resistant” to vaccines and boosters might not do much to help, spelling bad news for the country as Omicron spreads and COVID-19 cases rise nationally.

“A striking feature of this variant is the large number of spike mutations that pose a threat to the efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines and antibody therapies,” according to the study authored by more than 20 scientists at Columbia and the University of Hong Kong.

 

[atyy]

Worrisome paragraph:
https://nypost.com/2021/12/16/columbia-university-finds-omicron-vaccine-resistance/

I'm pretty sure boosters will help a lot! For 2xRNA vax, there is a major loss of antibody neutralization with Omicron, but protection against severe disease is expected to remain significant. Remarkably, 3xRNA not only increases antibody levels, but also broadens antibody neutralization, so that there is now significant neutralization of Omicron. 3xRNA generates Omicron neutralization that is a significant fraction of, and sometimes even comparable to the "super-immunity" generated by the combination of infection and vaccination. So 3xRNA is in a sense qualitatively better than 2xRNA in generating protection that is resistant to viral mutations.

https://www.medrxiv.org/con.../10.1101/2021.12.12.21267646v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/con.../10.1101/2021.12.14.21267755v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/con.../10.1101/2021.12.14.21267769v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/con.../10.1101/2021.12.13.21267670v1
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.12.472269v1

 

[pinball1970]

New York State just reported the third highest daily number (18,276) of positive SARS-Cov-2 cases since March 2020. The highest daily case numbers were 19942 on 14 Jan 2021 and 18832 on 7 Jan 2021. The daily fatalities have increased from less than 10/day (during the summer) to more than 60/day (during the past week). Yesterday, 74 deaths due to Covid-19 were reported. The total confirmed death toll due to Covid-19 stands at 47370 with another ~13000 probable (those dying outside of a medical or care facility.

New York State will report on the variant distribution on 18 Dec. They report every two weeks.

I just listened to a talk by a pathologist who studies respiratory illnesses, and the doctor indicated that mortality in the US from SARS-Cov-2 is about 10x that of influenza.

Locally, in our county, we've gone from 1 death per month during the past summer to 1 death per day during the past week. Many folks have chosen to go without wearing masks in public, and it is still those 60+, who are immunocompromised, or have one or more comorbidities, who are at most risk for mortality. Locally, those hospitalized tend to be those who are unvaccinated.

A similar story in the UK for cases. Two weeks ago we had a few dozen cases and today over 88,000 cases were reported in 24 hours.
The highest since it started.
Deaths will lag behind by a few weeks so we will have to see if the booster program can out run this surge.

In terms of who is at risk, 25 million boosted already so elderly and vulnerable should be covered. However there is a this missing % that is around the 20-50 group. They are not vaccinated.
As an aside but related, the BBC reported this morning that 25% of premiership footballers are not vaccinated. I was shocked by this, those guys have access to the best, and probably most expensive one to one medical care, advice and technology available in the UK. No jab??

 

[PeroK]

As an aside but related, the BBC reported this morning that 25% of premiership footballers are not vaccinated. I was shocked by this, those guys have access to the best, and probably most expensive one to one medical care, advice and technology available in the UK. No jab??

There have been several premier league matches postponed due to a COVID outbreak in one team or other.

In truth, the vaccination rate is probably not particularly significant, but it's evidence that Omicron is out of control already.

 

[pinball1970]

There have been several premier league matches postponed due to a COVID outbreak in one team or other.

In truth, the vaccination rate is probably not particularly significant, but it's evidence that Omicron is out of control already.

They premiership should insist on it. Not all the players and management are idiots though. (My reason on why they are not vaccinated)

"I follow the advice of smart, educated people who know their field because they've dedicated their lives to it and have studied it," said Klopp.

"Ignore those who pretend to know. Ignore lies and misinformation. Listen to people who know best. If you do that, you end up wanting the vaccine and the booster."

The German revealed on Wednesday that his entire squad has been double-vaccinated and those eligible for a booster had already had it.

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

The German revealed on Wednesday that his entire squad has been double-vaccinated and those eligible for a booster had already had it.

Omicron has a German twitter account
https://twitter.com/realB11529

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

Preliminary experimental data on T cell cross reactivity to Omicron
...
Summary & Conclusion

• T cell responses maintained to Omicron compared to ancestral Spike in Pfizer vaccinees
• Although there is a consistent decrease in the CD4 T cell response to Omicron, 70% of the response is preserved
• The majority of vaccinees mounting a CD8 Spike response are unaffected by Omicron mutations, with a fraction losing their CD8 response
• Infection prior to vaccination gives some advantage
• JnJ vaccinees (1x and 2x) currently being tested

Source:
https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/defa...hoconsulation_15dec2021.pdf?sfvrsn=2a2a7479_7

 

[valenumr]

Im assuming at this point that omicron is as contagious and vaccine resistant as warned. Hawaii reported almost 800 cases today, almost double yesterday's numbers, and near our delta peak. Just two days ago, the speculation was that we might reach 500 cases per day by the end of this month. Yikes!

https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/hawaii-reports-797-covid-cases-2-new-deaths/amp/

 

[StevieTNZ]

Three more cases detected at the border - https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/12/17/three-more-omicron-covid-19-cases-reported-in-miq/

NZ is trying to keep this new variant out of the community for as long as possible.

 

[jim mcnamara]

2 points:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.00438/full
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somatic_hypermutation
First point --
The links explain Somatic Hypermutation (SHM) in the immune system, specifically in antigen-activated germinal center B cells. Germinal centers are in lymph nodes The Bcells there are involved in affinity maturation - a map for antigen Ig synthesis.

What does this mean?
SHM is specifically designed to keep up with possible antigen changes in pathogens. e.g., Delta, Omicron at al.
A. it works well only after maturation - many weeks after exposure. Time required may vary with the pathogen, diet, and other problems like inflammatory diseases example: Lupus, Type II diabetes,
B. function is marked improved with multiple exposures to antigens i.e. boosters. Over extended time.
C. This not like the very first response we see in newly immunized patients.
D. So, after several months the response is to prevent disease even from variants. NOT infection.
E. Immunocompromised patients do not do SHM well, which may be why some physicians may have administered more than three Covid vaccines to this patient population. Second point --
A. Vaccines are designed from the get-go to depend primarily on SHM.
B. Vaccines are unusual if they provide "upfront" protection from infection
C. Covid mRNA vaccines do protect against infection. Upfront. Even though they do the SHM thing as well.
D. Some Covid vaccines (like AstraZeneca) do not use mRNA. So, infection protection is not like mRNA vaccines.
E. Infection protection induced by a few vaccines wanes. But for Covid we are expecting it to do something it was never intended to do: Protect against infection.

So these points explain why we use boosters over time -
example tetanus antitoxin boosters every 10 years or so.
They also explain the why of inoculation strategies for children.
They explain why it may be possible for Omicron to be less pathogenic.

I'll let you work it out...

 

[kyphysics]

Im assuming at this point that omicron is as contagious and vaccine resistant as warned. Hawaii reported almost 800 cases today, almost double yesterday's numbers, and near our delta peak. Just two days ago, the speculation was that we might reach 500 cases per day by the end of this month. Yikes!

https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/hawaii-reports-797-covid-cases-2-new-deaths/amp/

I feel like this is a rerunning movie. We keep underestimating COVID and variants in the media and socially.
I think exponential growth also tricks people's minds. You see just a few cases and think it's nothing. Even a few weeks later, it's just a bit more. But, once you go parabolic, it can explode out of nowhere and now you've got a full blown pandemic. It's frustrating. This wasn't hard to predict. Omicron was known very early on to be much more infectious than the already super infectious Delta. What did people expect?

It's like "out of sight out of mind." ...Exponential growth works that way...flat curve for a while and then an explosion straight up. That's why we needed to be careful early on. Not when it's gone exponential. Kinda too late now as the math takes over.

 

[valenumr]

I feel like this is a rerunning movie. We keep underestimating COVID and variants in the media and socially.
I think exponential growth also tricks people's minds. You see just a few cases and think it's nothing. Even a few weeks later, it's just a bit more. But, once you go parabolic, it can explode out of nowhere and now you've got a full blown pandemic. It's frustrating. This wasn't hard to predict. Omicron was known very early on to be much more infectious than the already super infectious Delta. What did people expect?

It's like "out of sight out of mind." ...Exponential growth works that way...flat curve for a while and then an explosion straight up. That's why we needed to be careful early on. Not when it's gone exponential. Kinda too late now as the math takes over.

Yep. Hawaii dropped basically all gathering restrictions (group sizes, venue capacity limits, etc) December 1st even with omicron in the news. No plans on going back as far as I can see.

 

[collinsmark]

I feel like this is a rerunning movie. We keep underestimating COVID and variants in the media and socially.
I think exponential growth also tricks people's minds. You see just a few cases and think it's nothing. Even a few weeks later, it's just a bit more. But, once you go parabolic, it can explode out of nowhere and now you've got a full blown pandemic. It's frustrating. This wasn't hard to predict. Omicron was known very early on to be much more infectious than the already super infectious Delta. What did people expect?

It's like "out of sight out of mind." ...Exponential growth works that way...flat curve for a while and then an explosion straight up. That's why we needed to be careful early on. Not when it's gone exponential. Kinda too late now as the math takes over.

Yes, I've experienced that with people.

Whenever I'm chatting with someone, and it becomes more and more apparent that they don't understand exponential growth, I'll slyly steer the conversation to this riddle:

A movie at the cinema starts at noon. At 11:45 AM, the first person walks into the theater. It's a very large theater, by the way, if you're curious. A minute later, two people enter. A minute after that 4 people enter. This continues for a while: with each minute, the number of people entering doubles. At exactly 12:00 noon, the last person enters and the theater is completely full. The question is: when is the theater half full?​

A typical question they may ask: "How big is the theater?"
Which I'll answer with: "It doesn't really matter. I could tell you the number*. It's big. But you don't need that to solve the problem. There's an easier way."

The answer to the riddle, of course, is 11:59 AM. A mere 1 minute before noon. That usually gets them to think, particularly with this pandemic going on.

I'll then mention that a mere 3 or 4 minutes or so before noon, it may seem that the theater is almost empty, with 9 out of 10 or so seats open, free for the taking. Then I might sneak in something about how people working at hospitals might feel when exponential growth happens.

*(65535)

 

[Astronuc]

NY State will release the numbers on variants later today. The state reports variant distribution on a two week basis. For two weeks ending 04 Dec, Omicron was reported as 1.1% (up from 0.6%) of infections typed.

CDC reported for Region 2 that Omicron accounted for 2% of infections for the week ending 04 Dec. For the week ending 11 Dec, CDC reports that 13.1% infections are Omicron.

HHS/CDC Region 2 includes New Jersey, New York, The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and The U.S. Virgin Islands (St. Croix, St. Thomas and St. John).

From California - https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-Variants.aspx
Variants being tracked/detected/monitored

• B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variants are associated with approximately 50% increased transmission, and likely with increased disease severity and risk of death. Appears to have minimal impact on the effectiveness of treatments with antibodies.
• B.1.351 (Beta) variants are associated with approximately 50% increased transmission. May have moderately decreased response to antibody treatments.
• P.1 (Gamma) variants may have moderately decreased response to some antibody treatments.
• B.1.526 (Iota) is associated with significantly reduced efficacy of some antibody treatments.
• B.1.525 (Eta), and P.2 (Zeta) variants may have moderately decreased response to some antibody treatments.
• B.1.617.1 (Kappa) may have moderately decreased response to some antibody treatments.
• B.1.427 and B.1.429 (Epsilon) are associated with approximately 20% increased transmission. There is significantly reduced efficacy of some antibody treatments.
• B.1.621 (Mu) may have moderately decreased response to antibody treatments

Two variants of concern

• B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants are associated with approximately 200% increased transmission. May have moderately decreased response to antibody treatments. (Delta totals include all Delta AY sublineages).
• Omicron (B.1.1.529) is a new SARS-CoV-2 variant that was designated as a Variant of Concern by the WHO on November 26, 2021. California reported its first case of Omicron variant on December 1, 2021. As of December 15, 2021, 49 confirmed cases associated with the Omicron variant have been reported to the state.

Importantly, with respect to sequencing variants in California,

As of December 15th 299,708 samples have been sequenced in California. In August 2021, 16% of cases in California were sequenced, and this percent is expected to increase in coming weeks as more data becomes available. In July 2021, 23% of cases in California were sequenced.

In Texas, SARS-Cov-2 is predominantly Delta, with Texas recently indicating 100%.
https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/variants-data/

A more detailed assessment of Central Texas during the past summer and before Omicron.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.27373

 

[kyphysics]

The answer to the riddle, of course, is 11:59 AM. A mere 1 minute before noon. That usually gets them to think, particularly with this pandemic going on.

I'll then mention that a mere 3 or 4 minutes or so before noon, it may seem that the theater is almost empty, with 9 out of 10 or so seats open, free for the taking. Then I might sneak in something about how people working at hospitals might feel when exponential growth happens.

*(65535)

What does the *(65535) represent, collinsmark?

That's a pretty surprising illustration of exponential growth. Very powerful actually. I wouldn't have guessed 11:59 AM myself even! I don't know what I'd guess, but not THAT close to 12 PM. I might borrow this example.

 

[jim mcnamara]

How many minutes? So we double the number of new people every minute. Right? Doubling means two times itself. 4 doubled is 8.

Looking at it another way:
2^x - 1 = 65535. So. x is what number?

Plus you absolutely cannot do that theater trick for an hour, right? Tell us why... Hint: 1152921504606846975

 

[kyphysics]

How many minutes? So we double the number of new people every minute. Right? Doubling means two times itself. 4 doubled is 8.

Looking at it another way:
2^x - 1 = 65535. So. x is what number?

Plus you absolutely cannot do that theater trick for an hour, right? Tell us why... Hint: 1152921504606846975

x= 16
makes sense

Nice reorienting of the calculation there. No matter how much I intuitively recognize the power of exponential growth, seeing it in real examples still stuns me.

U.S. is in bad shape guys...the world is in bad shape. The only positive I can think of is that Omicron might not be any more deadly than Delta. But, that's not great comfort when you've got the beginnings or happenings of parabolic growth (not enough people vaxxed, nor boostered). The next month or two will be absolutely horrible, I'm guessing. After the peak, hopefully we recover okay.

 

[kyphysics]

 

[kyphysics]

Plus you absolutely cannot do that theater trick for an hour, right? Tell us why... Hint: 1152921504606846975

What if these were super midgets?

Interestingly, the reverse of exponential growth can be exponential decline:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/science/coronavirus-math-mitigation-distancing.html
Good article on the power of STOPPING JUST 1 INFECTION.

The only problem is people have abandoned masks in many places. We don't have social cooperation here in the U.S. to leverage the power of exponential decline.

 

[Astronuc]

NY State will release the numbers on variants later today. The state reports variant distribution on a two week basis. For two weeks ending 04 Dec, Omicron was reported as 1.1% (up from 0.6%) of infections typed.

Perhaps the data on variants won't be released until Monday. Today, NY State reported 21,908 positive cases for yesterday, which eclipsed the previous all time high of 21,027 new cases the day before. Fatalities were 62 and 60, respectively. In January of this year, the mortality rates were 2 or more times those numbers, but there may be a lag of a week or two. If the COVID-19 infection is less severe with Omicron, hopefully, NY will not experience the higher levels of mortality experienced earlier this year.

 

[kyphysics]

Perhaps the data on variants won't be released until Monday. Today, NY State reported 21,908 positive cases for yesterday, which eclipsed the previous all time high of 21,027 new cases the day before. Fatalities were 62 and 60, respectively. In January of this year, the mortality rates were 2 or more times those numbers, but there may be a lag of a week or two. If the COVID-19 infection is less severe with Omicron, hopefully, NY will not experience the higher levels of mortality experienced earlier this year.

Mortality could also be lower, b/c the more vulnerable are already fully vaxxed.

Like you said, it'll be interesting in a few weeks. Deaths report with a lag. But, Omicron is also more infectious than Delta, so that could drive things due to high absolute infection rates.

 

[kyphysics]

 

[kyphysics]

 

[Astronuc]

Mortality could also be lower, b/c the more vulnerable are already fully vaxxed.

Like you said, it'll be interesting in a few weeks. Deaths report with a lag. But, Omicron is also more infectious than Delta, so that could drive things due to high absolute infection rates.

Yes, the vaccination of many of 60+ will help, even if Omicron is more infectious. New York has not reported their estimates of Omicron, but CDC has last week at 13% up from ~1-2% in the prior week, so perhaps New York is 20-25% Omicron this past week. Other states seem to be lagging.Edit/update: NY State reported two new deaths in the age range of 10 to 19. One death was reported on 15 Dec and the second on 16 Dec, bring the total to 20, which is low compared to hundreds or thousands in other age groups. The number of death in the 0-9 age group stands at 17, also low, but l think of the parents who lost their child and the grandparents who lost a granchild.

 

[StevieTNZ]

All of NZ's cases of Omicron are being detected at the border, thus it is not in the community. Yet anyway. They're looking at reducing the interval of getting a 2nd dose of Pfizer then a booster from six months to perhaps three. It is expected in early January, 5 - 11 year olds will be able to get vaxxed.

 

[kyphysics]

I promise I'm not Eric Ding.

 

[nsaspook]

I promise I'm not Eric Ding.

I think we need to be careful either way because there is minimal evidence of what 'mild' actually means. If 'mild' means a simple reduction of sickness and death by some set factor that's one thing but if 'mild' really means equivalent to a non-serious 'cold' in most vaccinated people that's a different set of numbers

 

[kyphysics]

I think we need to be careful either way because there is minimal evidence of what 'mild' actually means. If 'mild' means a simple reduction of sickness and death by some set factor that's one thing but if 'mild' really means equivalent to a non-serious 'cold' in most vaccinated people that's a different set of numbers

There's definitely a vaxxed/boostered vs. unvaxxed dichotomy.

There is also a global/poverty vs. G7 divide. Africa has only 10% of its total population vaxxed, for example. If Omicron hits, given its infectiousness, it could be devastating there. This thing has gone global.

Pray for the world. Many are not vaccinated.

 

[valenumr]

There's definitely a vaxxed/boostered vs. unvaxxed dichotomy.

There is also a global/poverty vs. G7 divide. Africa has only 10% of its total population vaxxed, for example. If Omicron hits, given its infectiousness, it could be devastating there. This thing has gone global.

Pray for the world. Many are not vaccinated.

No it's bad. Like really really bad. Here in Hawaii we have around 75 percent vax rate total population, indoor mask mandates, proof of vax requirements for gyms, restaurants, bars, theaters, etc, as well as proof of vax for entering the state. And it is spreading fast here. Faster than Delta when we did not have a lot of vaccines. Many establishments are shutting down because a majority of the staff have covid. Establishments that require their employees to be vaccinated. Time will tell how virulent the strain is in vaxxed and unvaxxed individuals, but it is definitely very infectious. UK reported almost 100k new cases yesterday. That is nuts. The sheer numbers are going to be problematic.

 

[valenumr]

Oops, that was meant in reply of @nsaspook

 

[kyphysics]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/mod...ron-in-tests-will-still-develop-new-shot.html

Moderna said Monday its Covid-19 booster does appear to provide protection against omicron, but the drug company will still be developing a new shot specific to the variant currently surging across the world.

In an announcement early Monday, Moderna said preliminary data from lab testing found the version of its booster currently in use in the United States and elsewhere provided increased antibody levels to neutralize the virus. But it also found that a double dose of the booster shot provided a much greater increase in those levels.

 

[kyphysics]

I am not related to Eric Ding.

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/po...sters-postpones-end-to-miq-because-of-omicron

- boosters now being delivered four months after second doses of Pfizer

It was also planning to allow fully vaccinated Kiwis and residents to travel into the country from Australia without going through managed isolation from mid-January.
That has been pushed back until the end of February to give the country more time to give far more Kiwis time to get their booster shot – with about 82 per cent of over-12s eligible for a booster at that point.
The Government has also announced that vaccinations for 5 – 11-year-olds will begin from January 17.
The suite of measures is designed to combat the newly-dominant Omicron variant, which is not yet been found in the community in New Zealand.

 

[kyphysics]

I promise I'm not Eric Ding's wife.

 

[Astronuc]

The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg had headlines yesterday that indicated that 73% of new Covid infections are Omicron. I'm still waiting to see the different states including NY.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-to-nearly-three-quarters-of-u-s-virus-cases

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicro...73-of-u-s-covid-19-cases-cdc-says-11640040586

 

[pinball1970]

I think we need to be careful either way because there is minimal evidence of what 'mild' actually means. If 'mild' means a simple reduction of sickness and death by some set factor that's one thing but if 'mild' really means equivalent to a non-serious 'cold' in most vaccinated people that's a different set of numbers

12 deaths in the UK so far (EDIT 14 deaths)

https://assets.publishing.service.g...042543/20211220_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdfSouth Africa looking more optimistic

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...9-hospitalisations-fall-sharply-south-africa/

 

[Evo]

So, with so many more people getting Covid now, does this mean that there are so many more opportunities for Covid to mutate into another possibly more lethal variant again?

 

[BillTre]

So, with so many more people getting Covid now, does this mean that there are so many more opportunities for Covid to mutate into another possibly more lethal variant again?

Yes. More virus reproducing, more opportunities for changes to occur.

However, not all opportunities are equally productive in making new versions of virus.
An explanation proposed for new versions (that have accumulated a lot of genetic changes, and thus have new properties), is that they were able to reproduce, for long periods of time, within a single person. South Africa, supposedly, with lots of untreated HIV patients, would have a lot of people with a poorly functioning immune system where a virus could survive a long time.

Some would argue that this would be a more opportune oportunity for a virus to make big genetic changes.

 

[Astronuc]

New York State and CDC (for Region 2) have reported SARS-Cov-2 Variants for two weeks and the week ending 18-Dec, respectively. NY State reports on a two week basis. I'm trying to reconcile the different numbers for Omicron. New York reports 11.1% of cases being Omicron, 88.5% Delta. However, for the week ending 11-Dec, CDC reports Region 2 as 25.4% Omicron, 74.2% Delta and for the week ending 18-Dec, Region 2 has 92% Omicron, 7.9% Delta. Is there are measurement bias?

New York is seeing more deaths in the 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, which have increased during the last month.

 

[Tom.G]

Is there are measurement bias?

I have not looked at the actual numbers but it seems easily explained. As the Omicron variant is becoming dominant, most new infections are Omicron.
∴ Higher percentage of Omicron when ignoring the previous week.

Cheers,
Tom

 

[pinball1970]

I have not looked at the actual numbers but it seems easily explained. As the Omicron variant is becoming dominant, most new infections are Omicron.
∴ Higher percentage of Omicron when ignoring the previous week.

Cheers,
Tom

Less than 2000 cases ten days ago and as of December 19th we have 45,000.
So far the cases in hospital seem to be steady. A slight rise only.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Looking at the numbers, variants, end of/lockdowns and jab % since Jan it looks like two jabs kept Delta at bay in terms of deaths/hospital so three to keep the numbers down with Omicron? Especially if it is not as severe?

44% of population now boosted which is fast, they should have pushed like this for jabs one and two especially for younger adults.

 

[pinball1970]

I have not looked at the actual numbers but it seems easily explained. As the Omicron variant is becoming dominant, most new infections are Omicron.
∴ Higher percentage of Omicron when ignoring the previous week.

Cheers,
Tom

As an aside but also related Spanish flu 1918 had four waves and lasted just over two years.
We are now at wave or rather main variant 5 with COVID19? Two years.

 

[Astronuc]

As the Omicron variant is becoming dominant, most new infections are Omicron.
∴ Higher percentage of Omicron when ignoring the previous week.

Yes, I agree with the dramatic increase, I'm trying to reconcile the CDC Region 2 reporting 92% Omicron as compared to NY State, which heavily weights in Region 2, at 11% Omicron for the two week period ending 18-December. I'd like to know more about the measurements and weighted averaging.

Edit/Update: NY State just reported a new daily record of positive cases: 28924, exceeding the previous record of 23392 set two days ago.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/briefing/omicron-severity-afghanistan-aid-libya.html

Two new studies suggest that Omicron infections more often result in mild illness compared with previous variants of the coronavirus, offering hope that the current surge may be less catastrophic than feared.

The research, conducted in Britain and released on Wednesday, indicated that Omicron was less likely to put people in hospitals. One study looked at hospital admissions for the Delta and Omicron variants in November and December and found a two-thirds reduction in the risk of hospitalization. A separate analysis looked at Omicron and Delta cases in the first two weeks of December and saw a smaller reduction in hospital visits.
...
“What you’ve heard is a qualified good-news story,” said Dr. Jim McMenamin, incident director for Covid-19 at Public Health Scotland. But he warned that hospitals could still be filled because of the rate of transmission.

https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/pu...variant-of-concern-and-vaccine-effectiveness-

Findings
The first case of Omicron confirmed by viral sequencing was recorded in Scotland on November 23, 2021, By December 19, 2021, there were 23,840 S gene negative cases. These S gene negative cases were predominantly in the age group 20-39 (11,732; 49.2%). The proportion of S gene negative cases that were possible reinfections was more than 10 times that of S gene positive (7.6%
versus 0.7%). There were 15 hospital admissions in those S gene negative giving an adjusted observed/expected ratio of 0.32 (95% CI 0.19, 0.52). The third/booster vaccine dose was associated with a 57% (95% CI 55, 60) reduction in the risk of symptomatic S gene negative symptomatic infection relative to ≥25 weeks post second dose.

Interpretation
These early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta. Whilst offering the greatest protection against Delta, the third/booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 for Omicron when compared to ≥25 weeks post second vaccine dose.