I got a bit hasty in my early reply in addition to suffering from the ##\LaTeX## bug. It happens when I try to do control volumes while on Zoom calls. Ultimately,
@erobz is on the right track in #30.
If you use that control volume (though I would draw the outlet to be even with the inner edge of the pipe), you can do an analysis using conservation of mass and momentum. Define the inlet size as station 1 and the outlet under the disc as station 2. Then conservation of mass, assuming steady and incompressible flow, states that
$$\boxed{V_1 A_1 = V_2 A_2.}$$
You know that ##A_1 = \pi D^2/4## and ##A_2 = \pi D h##, where ##h## is the height the cap is lifted. That lets you relate the inlet and outlet velocities. You could start with the integral form of conservation of mass here, but that's a bit much for this case.
Conservation of momentum is a bit trickier, but is how we relate flow quantities to forces. Assuming steady flow and neglecting viscosity and gravity (which seems reasonable if you draw the small CV),
$$\iint_{\mathcal{A}}\rho\vec{V}(\vec{V}\cdot\hat{n})dA = -\iint_{\mathcal{A}} p\hat{n}dA +\vec{F}_{ext}.$$
You can simplify that and you'll find that the ##x##-momentum equation is satisfied by default, so all that's left is the ##y## direction. There, you'll have some pressure at the top of the pipe (station 1), ##p_1##, atmospheric pressure at the outlets, ##p_{atm}##, and the weight of the cap, ##W##, which points down. Simplifying the momentum equation in the ##y## direction yields
$$\boxed{-\rho v_1^2 A_1 = p_{atm} A_1 - p_1 A_1 + W.}$$
If the goal is to get the height the cap lifts, ##h##, as a function of ##p_1## (or more usefully, ##p_g = p_1 - p_{atm}##), then we currently have 2 equations for 3 variables. Enter the Bernoulli equation (again neglecting gravity).
$$\boxed{p_1 + \frac{1}{2}\rho v_1^2 = p_{atm} + \frac{1}{2}\rho v_2^2.}$$
That should allow you to solve for ##h## as a function of ##D##, the pipe diameter, ##p_g##, the gage pressure inside the pipe, and ##W##, the weight of the "cap."
This time I chicken-scratched this during a different meeting, so someone check my work.