Do you feel safer with self-driving cars on the road?

[russ_watters]

I am always confused by this sentiment. Every new innovation threatens the old way. Do we stop progressing?

Agreed. I think the fact that the job losses are specific and complete adds visibility that makes the downside seem worse -- as opposed to, say, loss of secretarial jobs to PCs, which was a fraction of a larger pool. But I don't consider the disruption worse if it eliminates 10 million out of 10 million jobs vs 10 million out of 50 million (made up numbers for illustration). It's still 10 million people who need to find new jobs.

...The one caveat I'd put on that though is if it is 10 out of 50, you may have a chance to keep your job via good performance, whereas if it is 10 out of 10, you will lose your job no matter how good you are at it. But when it comes to unskilled labor, there isn't really such a thing as "being good at it".

There is ongoing debate in the US about job skills: in an open thread right now, a user is arguing we need more higher education including a degree above phd. On the other end is Mike Rowe who in effect is arguing fewer people should be going to college and more getting skilled blue collar work. I think there is room for a nuanced view of both (more blue collar and more usable bacherlors degrees).

As a society, the USA tends to look at the issue backwards for some reason. What the USA needs less of is non-skilled jobs like taxi drivers, burger flippers and WalMart greeters. We shouldn't bemoan the loss of these jobs, we should celebrate it! The real problem is that these jobs are "needed" at all: there are better-skilled jobs available for the taking, but there are 25 million(!) adults who lack even a high school diploma to go after something better. That's the real problem we should be focusing on (or not? Who's fault is that anyway?).

Holding back progress in order to provide unskilled work to people who haven't held-up their end of the bargain isn't something I favor: and I think more automation will help that by providing a kick to those who need it.

 

[russ_watters]

Yes, but now jobs are being disrupted at an ever increasing rate. This will not be the same scale of job disruption as in the past. I see the potential for a serious crap storm in the near future if steps are not taken.

Do you have any references/statistics for the current state of distruption? I hear a lot of people predicting increasing future disruption (as they have - incorrectly - since the start of the industrial revolution), but I don't think I've ever seen evidence of a current problem. An awful lot of people came out of the "Great Recession" pessimistic, believing "this one will be different", but despite a slow recovery we're now pretty much back to where we were during the over-inflated '90s; with a lower unemployment rate than ever in the 2000s (since 2000 itself). There are some caveats to that (part time workers and demographics shifting toward retiring baby-boomers), but I don't see anything in the data that suggests an automation-caused unemployment problem.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I am always confused by this sentiment. Every new innovation threatens the old way. Do we stop progressing?

It might be that the final goal is to even, eventually, virtually replace humans in difficult, risky, heavy or routine jobs with machines, robots and A.I. ... and allow humans (in a better future society) to enjoy the benefits and life as it is, or have time to pursue other more advanced and higher level quests ...
I'm OK with that! ...

People loosing jobs is an issue of course (in the transitive states of society), but no transition is easy ...
Plus more jobs are always created, as said by others.

 

[WWGD]

I am always confused by this sentiment. Every new innovation threatens the old way. Do we stop progressing?

There is a difference between incremental progress and its extreme version of disruption. Plenty of room in-between.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

There is a difference between incremental progress and its extreme version of disruption. Plenty of room in-between.

So you are advocating that US regulators should somehow step in and slow US autonomous car research in public/private companies to give taxi drivers time to learn new skills?

 

[WWGD]

So you are advocating that US regulators should somehow step in and slow US autonomous car research in public/private companies to give taxi drivers time to learn new skills?

No, nothing nearly that radical. Just that the effects of disrupting be considered, and not just the glamorous aspect of it.
It is relatively easy to adapt to incremental changes, though not so much so to change careers when disruption happens. That's all (folks).

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

No, nothing nearly that radical. Just that the effects of disrupting be considered, and not just the glamorous aspect of it.
It is relatively easy to adapt to incremental changes, though not so much so to change careers when disruption happens. That's all (folks).

I hear you and I think they are being considered. A Google search reveals that, but the problem is that the market does not accept "unnecessary" incremental steps. The market wants the best and cutting edge all the time when it's possible. Thus regulators would be needed to enforce incrementalism. The problem with that is then the US market suffers when other countries don't follow suit and advance past.

 

[WWGD]

The fact that a taxi driver won't be able to drive a taxi anymore only means he will have more time to find a cure for cancer or increase the efficiency of solar panels.

If a person lives, it must create a demand for something. If there is a demand, there is work. That is why technology or immigration will never create a job shortage. Ever.

But I'll admit that it can be difficult to change old habits and break a well established routine.

How many taxi drivers have degrees and/or advanced knowledge of (Solar) engineering, biotech? EDIT I am not saying it is impossible to make the transition but that something must be made to facilitate it, it is not likely to happen without special programs.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

How many taxi drivers have degrees and/or advanced knowledge of (Solar) engineering, biotech? EDIT I am not saying it is impossible to make the transition but that something must be made to facilitate it, it is not likely to happen without special programs.

Most have some knowledge to repair or maintain cars. E.g. they can contribute to self-driving car maintainance, an important issue, IMO.

 

[WWGD]

Most have some knowledge to repair or maintain cars. E.g. they can contribute to self-driving car maintainance, an important issue, IMO.

True, good point, although many modern cars have become too complicated, computerized, requiring very specialized knowledge which older cars did not require. Besides, today remaining up-to-date and improving one's education is much easier by just having an internet connection.

 

[jack action]

How many taxi drivers have degrees and/or advanced knowledge of (Solar) engineering, biotech? EDIT I am not saying it is impossible to make the transition but that something must be made to facilitate it, it is not likely to happen without special programs.

To me, it is the ultimate goal that everyone can possesses such skill. But, in the mean time, getting a diploma for a job like driving a vehicle doesn't take more than a year or two. I'm pretty sure the change over from where we are now to a fully driverless society will take more time than that.

Transitioning from a career to another is not that uncommon, even without having a complete disappearance of a profession. Heck, I've seen a TV show not long ago about a very popular porn star who became a landscaper. If she can do that, I think a taxi driver can develop another useful skill as well.

 

[WWGD]

To me, it is the ultimate goal that everyone can possesses such skill. But, in the mean time, getting a diploma for a job like driving a vehicle doesn't take more than a year or two. I'm pretty sure the change over from where we are now to a fully driverless society will take more time than that.

Transitioning from a career to another is not that uncommon, even without having a complete disappearance of a profession. Heck, I've seen a TV show not long ago about a very popular porn star who became a landscaper. If she can do that, I think a taxi driver can develop another useful skill as well.

Not quite; I have been trying to transition into a porn star for years, without any success. Maybe my name " Mr Softy" did not help much ;).

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I've seen a TV show not long ago about a very popular porn star who became a landscaper.

Porn stars and "landscapes" are not that unrelated! ... (x2 way ...)

 

[ISamson]

Do you feel safer with self-driving cars on the road?

No. How do I know that the computer for the car has been properly programmed without bugs and not hacked. I am an important person (), I don't want to be murdered by a hacked computer - taxi driver!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Do you feel safer with self-driving cars on the road?

No. How do I know that the computer for the car has been properly programmed without bugs and not hacked. I am an important person (), I don't want to be murdered by a hacked computer - taxi driver!

Security is always an issue, but I think they are ambitious that it keeps improving radically ...

 

[ISamson]

Security is always an issue, but I think they are ambitious that it keeps improving radically ...

Yes, true, but I believe there always will be one insignificant little person that will somehow find a way to hack the system sooner or later. Always.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Yes, true, but I believe there always will be one insignificant little person that will somehow find a way to hack the system sooner or later. Always.

Possibly, but people are getting more and more mature ... . I hope they'll stop playing at some point! ...

 

[ISamson]

Possibly, but people are getting more and more mature ... . I hope they'll stop playing at some point! ...

Never. There always are terrorists or super agents or people wanting something from someone for some reason.
But I hope so.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Never. There always are terrorists or super agents.
But I hope so.

Perhaps. But with billions of cell phones, computers etc. even nowdays ... isn't it getting a little better? ... A car or two would be minor, better than more accidents ...

 

[ISamson]

But with billions of cell phones, computers etc. even nowdays ... isn't it getting a little better?

I don't get it, why better?

A car or two would be minor, better than more accidents ...

Yeah, but this would make them unreliable, scary and as I said famous/rich people would have problems.

But with billions of cell phones, computers etc.

Where are you going with this?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I don't get it, why better?
Yeah, but this would make them unreliable, scary and as I said famous/rich people would have problems.
Where are you going with this?

All I'm saying is that statistically it's getting better, as far as I know. Just look at the past (but I know you're younger): A lot less computers etc. - a lot more hacks back then. Now with an "ocean" of technology and software, and even available our personal data etc. (fb etc./ social media), a lot less trouble (just cookies and malware ..., most of the time ...). It's just not a fashion anymore! You see what I mean?

Some "target" people will always have a problem and a risk. It doesn't have to be their car ...

 

[ISamson]

A lot less computers etc. - a lot more hacks back then.

Why?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Why?

I'm talking e.g. about the 90's. Even on a primitive cell phone I was getting viruses back then. Now just ads ...
Hacking was more of a fashion back then (statistically), as far as I know ...
Perhaps it just discharged over time ... with the plularity of technology ...

 

[jack action]

Do you feel safer with self-driving cars on the road?

No. How do I know that the computer for the car has been properly programmed without bugs and not hacked. I am an important person (), I don't want to be murdered by a hacked computer - taxi driver!

How do you know a human taxi driver has been properly trained and that he's not intoxicated or a terrorist wanting to blow himself up with you and the car?

 

[WWGD]

Possibly, but people are getting more and more mature ... . I hope they'll stop playing at some point! ...

I don't think it is necessarily an issue of maturity; some people believe --whether "right" or not -- that they are getting a raw deal and have no means of redress or making themselves heard. Others, I agree, are POS immature and selfish ( My days in the far Left are over).

 

[WWGD]

To me, it is the ultimate goal that everyone can possesses such skill. But, in the mean time, getting a diploma for a job like driving a vehicle doesn't take more than a year or two. I'm pretty sure the change over from where we are now to a fully driverless society will take more time than that.

Transitioning from a career to another is not that uncommon, even without having a complete disappearance of a profession. Heck, I've seen a TV show not long ago about a very popular porn star who became a landscaper. If she can do that, I think a taxi driver can develop another useful skill as well.

Still, it is usually easier to think this way when it comes to others' situation. You know the saying: If your neighbor loses their job, it is a recession. If you lose _your_ job, it is a depression...

 

[mathman]

NY Times (Nov. 12, 2017) magazine section - entire issue is devoted to this subject.

 

[Spinnor]

NY Times (Nov. 12, 2017) magazine section - entire issue is devoted to this subject.

The link, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...lights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront

 

[Spinnor]

Do you have any references/statistics for the current state of distruption? I hear a lot of people predicting increasing future disruption (as they have - incorrectly - since the start of the industrial revolution), but I don't think I've ever seen evidence of a current problem. An awful lot of people came out of the "Great Recession" pessimistic, believing "this one will be different", but despite a slow recovery we're now pretty much back to where we were during the over-inflated '90s; with a lower unemployment rate than ever in the 2000s (since 2000 itself). There are some caveats to that (part time workers and demographics shifting toward retiring baby-boomers), but I don't see anything in the data that suggests an automation-caused unemployment problem.

I just get a bad feeling about a possible future of severe job disruption and the possibilities for civil strife. I do not blame the scientists who are making this disruption possible. I am worried for my children as I don't have so many years left one way or the other.

I am picking and choosing to back up my fears,

"...I work in Automation and predict that the number and quality of jobs lost will far exceed most predictions, and a high percentage of the jobs lost will belong to educated white collar professionals. As a society, we are completely unprepared for changes of that magnitude. Our legal and economic systems change at a glacial pace while technological change is increasing exponentially. How do you apportion the economic wealth of a nation when productivity is high, costs are dropping, and corporate profits are soaring, while large sections of the work force are being discarded as unnecessary. ..."

From the coment section of, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/tech...ing-will-affect-employment-and-public-policy/

"... As MarketWatch points out, a national Pew poll confirms that the biggest cause of job loss in the U.S. is technology. A 2013 Oxford University study estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs could be replaced by robots and automated technology within the next two decades. ..."

From, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/05/report-ai-and-robots-could-change-your-career-within-5-years.html

"... Two-thirds of Americans believe robots will soon perform most of the work done by humans but 80% also believe their jobs will be unaffected. Time to think again, ..."

From, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/11/robots-jobs-employees-artificial-intelligence

All from, https://www.google.com/search?q=projections+how+advances+in+artificial+inteligence,+robotics,+will+lead+to+job+losses&oq=projections+how+advances+in+artificial+inteligence,+robotics,+will+lead+to+job+losses&aqs=chrome..69i57.49743j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Bring on the self driving cars, just maybe not at full speed. Edit. I wonder when human race car drivers will lose to self driving race cars?

 

[WWGD]

I just get a bad feeling about a possible future of severe job disruption and the possibilities for civil strife. I do not blame the scientists who are making this disruption possible. I am worried for my children as I don't have so many years left one way or the other.

I am picking and choosing to back up my fears,

"...I work in Automation and predict that the number and quality of jobs lost will far exceed most predictions, and a high percentage of the jobs lost will belong to educated white collar professionals. As a society, we are completely unprepared for changes of that magnitude. Our legal and economic systems change at a glacial pace while technological change is increasing exponentially. How do you apportion the economic wealth of a nation when productivity is high, costs are dropping, and corporate profits are soaring, while large sections of the work force are being discarded as unnecessary. ..."

From the coment section of, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/tech...ing-will-affect-employment-and-public-policy/

"... As MarketWatch points out, a national Pew poll confirms that the biggest cause of job loss in the U.S. is technology. A 2013 Oxford University study estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs could be replaced by robots and automated technology within the next two decades. ..."


From, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/05/report-ai-and-robots-could-change-your-career-within-5-years.html

"... Two-thirds of Americans believe robots will soon perform most of the work done by humans but 80% also believe their jobs will be unaffected. Time to think again, ..."

From, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/11/robots-jobs-employees-artificial-intelligence

All from, https://www.google.com/search?q=projections+how+advances+in+artificial+inteligence,+robotics,+will+lead+to+job+losses&oq=projections+how+advances+in+artificial+inteligence,+robotics,+will+lead+to+job+losses&aqs=chrome..69i57.49743j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Bring on the self driving cars, just maybe not at full speed.

Yes, it seems like, as a society, we want to have it both ways: cool new technologies in automation while keeping our jobs; not wanting to think about the implications of major disruptive changes. Just like we love the comfort of buying from Amazon and other online retailers, yet we decry the loss of brick and mortar stores. But seems like the change machine reinforces itself and there is realistically no way of slowing things down.