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Economic analysis: replace machine now or later

  1. Nov 8, 2015 #1

    Maylis

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    1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data
    I know it's not directly related to engineering, but its from an engineering economics course!
    upload_2015-11-8_18-39-12.png

    2. Relevant equations


    3. The attempt at a solution
    Hello, I'm trying to solve this problem, and my first thought it to find the present value of each machine
    $$ PV = C_{D}t[1-(1+i)^{-n_{t}}]/(in_{t}) $$
    Where ##C_{D}## is the depreciated value, ##i## is the interest rate, ##n_{t}## is the depreciation life (tax purposes), and ##t## is the tax rate.
    When comparing the old machine and the new machine, I found ##PV_{old} = $516.9##, and ##PV_{new} = $614.4##, so it would mean the new one is presently worth more. I used ##n_{t,old} = 5## and ##n_{t,new}=10##. ##C_{D} = C_{I}-C_{S}## where ##C_{I}## is the initial cost, and ##C_{S}## is the salvage value. However, I am not sure how I should incorporate operating expenses in my calculation, which leads me to believe what I am doing is incorrect.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Nov 9, 2015 #2
    I wouldn't use an equation to work this out. I would start by determining the cash flows for the two scenarios and then determine the net present value of each scenario.
     
  4. Nov 9, 2015 #3

    Maylis

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    Not sure if I am going about this the right way
    Straight-line depreciation
    $$ D = (15,000-0)/10 = 1,500 $$
    So the salvage value today is
    $$ 1,500 = (15,000-C_{s})/5 $$
    $$ C_{s} = 7,500 $$

    For using the old machine for 5 years and then replacing (no salvage value)

    $$ 15,000*1.1^{5} + 2,500(5) = $36,657.65 $$
    Then using the new machine for 5 years
    $$ 22,000*1.1^{5} + 1,500(5) = $42,931.22 $$
    So for the next 10 years you get total cost ##$79,588.87##

    Then Just buying the new machine now and using for the next 10 years with subtracting salvage value for the old machine today
    $$ 22,000*1.1^{10}+1,500(10) - 7,500 = $64,562.33 $$

    So it seems that purchasing the new machine is better.
     
  5. Nov 9, 2015 #4
    I really don't like what you did here, and I don't think that your results are correct. Here is an assessment of the cash flows for the scenario of waiting the 5 years before purchasing:

    End of Year 1:
    Operating cost= -2500
    Tax refund on operating cost = +1250
    Tax refund on depreciation = +750
    Net cash flow at end of year 1 = -500

    Same for years 2-4.

    End of Year 5
    Same as years 1-4, except purchase cost of 22000.
    Net cash flow at end of year 5 = -22500

    End of years 6-15:
    Operating cost = -1500
    Tax refund on operating cost = +750
    Tax Refund on depreciation = +1100
    Net cash flow at end of years 6-16 = +350

    These case flows can be used to calculate the NPV of scenario 1.

    In my judgement, scenario 2 (immediate purchase) is somewhat ambiguous, for the following reasons:
    1. Scenario 1 involves having a machine to use for 15 years. In scenario 2, what do you do after 10 years (when the useful life of the new machine has expired)?
    2. Can you sell the original machine at time zero to recover its salvage value?

    Chet
     
  6. Nov 9, 2015 #5

    Maylis

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    Thanks Chet, I didn't understand what the tax credit of 50% meant. I didn't realize you get 50% of your operating cost back. I assumed it meant you pay 22,000 for the machine plus 50% tax, just like buying something at the store. This is more clear, I will give this a try
     
  7. Nov 9, 2015 #6

    SteamKing

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    I think something got mixed up here.

    According to the OP, Machine 1 has a service life of 10 years. Machine 1 is currently 5 years old, and it will be replaced when it is 10 years old, at the end of its service life. Machine 2, which also has a service life of 10 years, will replace Machine 1. The question asks if it is more economical to replace Machine 1 now by purchasing Machine 2, while Machine 1 still has some salvage value, rather than wait 5 years until Machine 1 is fully depreciated and has no scrap value. In any event, it is not anticipated to keep Machine 1 past 10 years of service life
     
  8. Nov 9, 2015 #7

    Maylis

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    I agree with steamking, I think the old machine has a salvage value of $7500 if sold today
     
  9. Nov 9, 2015 #8
    Yes. When the company fills out its tax return, it gets a deduction for operating expenses (since this reduces their net income) and it also gets a tax deduction on depreciation (which is a bookkeeping entry).
     
  10. Nov 9, 2015 #9

    SteamKing

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    At those tax rates (50%), no one would ever replace any equipment until it vaporized. :wink:
     
  11. Nov 9, 2015 #10
    OK. That settles my first question. My second question still stands. If the new machine is put into operation at time zero, what does the company use from years 11 - 15?
     
  12. Nov 9, 2015 #11

    Maylis

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    Agreed, the question doesn't mention it, so it is unknown.
     
  13. Nov 9, 2015 #12
    Actually, a high tax rate is favorable from the standpoint of tax writeoffs for expenses and depreciation. The high tax rate hurts when when it comes to paying taxes on income.
     
  14. Nov 9, 2015 #13

    Maylis

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    I just realized, this thing doesn't give the depreciation of the new machine, so how can I do the tax credit for depreciation for years 6-10? Assume zero salvage value at the end of its operating life as well?
     
  15. Nov 9, 2015 #14
    I would tend to assume that a 2nd new machine is bought at the end of year 10, and that it is sold for salvage value at the end of year 15.

    Chet
     
  16. Nov 9, 2015 #15
    Sure, use straight line depreciation like the original machine.
     
  17. Nov 9, 2015 #16

    SteamKing

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    I'm not sure what you consider 'time zero'.

    The company can either use Machine 1 for another 5 years from the present time and then purchase Machine 2, or it can purchase Machine 2 now and use it for 10 years. I don't think the planning department has considered what happens in the latter event, when Machine 2 is purchased earlier than anticipated.
     
  18. Nov 9, 2015 #17
    Presumably, the old machine is sold for salvage value at time zero, when the new machine is put into operation. So there is an immediate cash flow at time zero.
     
  19. Nov 9, 2015 #18

    Maylis

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    Okay, I'm not sure if I should only consider the 10 year expenditure and use that as my comparison

    Scenario 1 (use old machine for 5 years then use new machine 5 years)
    Expenditure: -500(5) - 22000 + 350(5) = -22750

    Scenario 2 (buy new machine now and sell old machine)
    Expenditure: -22000 + 7500 + 350(10) = -11,000

    So you would spend less money in scenario 2. Is that the right way to determine the better option?
     
  20. Nov 9, 2015 #19
    No. You need to get the net present value of each scenario by properly discounting the cash flows. Comparing it the way you did it is not adequate. There is a big difference between laying out the 22000 now and paying it 5 years from now. Don't forget that the discount rate is 10%.
     
  21. Nov 9, 2015 #20

    Maylis

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    Should I use the expenditures for all 10 years of operating life to calculate the NPV (first equation should be 350*10)? Admittedly, I don't know how to calculate NPV from these expenditures.

    I guess ##NPV = Cash Flow/(1+i)^{n}##
     
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