Expected values probability help

  • Thread starter Thread starter mtingt
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability
AI Thread Summary
The discussion revolves around calculating the expected value for a game involving tossing a fair coin three times, with specific payouts for different outcomes. Participants clarify that if one tail occurs, the winnings are $0, which should be included in the expected value calculation. The original poster incorrectly computed probabilities, leading to an inaccurate expected value equation. Correct probabilities for the outcomes must be used to ensure the calculations are valid, particularly for the case of getting two heads and one tail. Overall, understanding the correct probabilities is crucial for accurately determining the expected value in this scenario.
mtingt
Messages
13
Reaction score
0
A fair coin is tossed 3 times, and a player wins $26 if 3 tails occur, wins $13 if 2 tails occur, and loses $26 if no tails occur. If 1 tail occurs, no one wins. what is the expected value?


i don't really understand what does the "if 1 tail occurs , no one wins. how do you set up that?

i only set up up to ( $26*3/8) + ($13* 2/8) -(26* 4/8) how do i set up the if 1 tail occurs?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
mtingt said:
i don't really understand what does the "if 1 tail occurs , no one wins. how do you set up that?

Use $0 for the winnings.

i only set up up to ( $26*3/8) + ($13* 2/8) -(26* 4/8) how do i set up the if 1 tail occurs?[/

Your probabilities add up to more than 1, so they are wrong.
 
if i use 0 for the winnings that 1 tail occurs that just means i add 0 to the end of my equation?
($26*3/8) + ($13* 2/8) -(26* 4/8) + 0 (1/8)

isnt that still the same?
so what is wrong with my equation?
 
mtingt said:
if i use 0 for the winnings that 1 tail occurs that just means i add 0 to the end of my equation?

($26*3/8) + ($13* 2/8) -(26* 4/8) + 0 (1/8)
isnt that still the same?
Yes. The zero just shows a grader than you know what you are doing.

so what is wrong with my equation?

You have computed the probabilities incorrectly. For example, the probability of getting 2 heads in 3 tosses isn't 2/8. Of the 8 possible results of tossing 3 coins, there are 3 possible ways that one can get 2 heads and 1 tail.
 
Stephen Tashi said:
You have computed the probabilities incorrectly. For example, the probability of getting 2 heads in 3 tosses isn't 2/8. Of the 8 possible results of tossing 3 coins, there are 3 possible ways that one can get 2 heads and 1 tail.

oh wow, i can't believe i made such a stupid mistake, thank you for helping me out
 
I picked up this problem from the Schaum's series book titled "College Mathematics" by Ayres/Schmidt. It is a solved problem in the book. But what surprised me was that the solution to this problem was given in one line without any explanation. I could, therefore, not understand how the given one-line solution was reached. The one-line solution in the book says: The equation is ##x \cos{\omega} +y \sin{\omega} - 5 = 0##, ##\omega## being the parameter. From my side, the only thing I could...
Back
Top