How can I generate a two-tailed power law distribution for stock market returns?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around generating a two-tailed power law distribution for stock market returns. Participants explore the challenges faced in modeling this distribution, particularly in the context of software tools and statistical methods.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses interest in modeling stock market returns with a power law distribution but struggles to generate a two-tailed distribution using available software.
  • Another participant provides a resource on power laws in finance and asks for clarification on the distinction between one-tailed and two-tailed distributions, questioning whether the issue lies with the data or the parameters used.
  • A participant indicates that they can generate a one-tailed distribution for positive returns but is unsure how to achieve a two-tailed distribution or if it corresponds to a specific distribution type.
  • One reply suggests that Excel is not suitable for statistical analysis and recommends using R, mentioning the existence of a package that may assist in generating the desired distribution.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants have not reached a consensus on how to generate the two-tailed power law distribution, and multiple viewpoints regarding the tools and methods remain present.

Contextual Notes

There are unresolved questions about the specific formulas needed for the two-tailed distribution and the limitations of the software tools mentioned. The discussion also reflects varying levels of familiarity with statistical modeling among participants.

Tejay
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Hi All,

After reading some books on how stock market returns are better modeled by a power law distribution, I wanted to play with some data based on this.

When using some software and or doing it myself on excel, I can generate one tail, but not two.

This is what I would like my data to look like;

04107-exhibit_01.gif


Does anyone know how to do this?

As you might have gathered, I am well out of my depth here. Just looking to tinker with the data for fun.
 
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Welcome to PF!

Here's an article on using power laws in finance with pointers to other related articles which may be a good start:

http://physicsoffinance.blogspot.com/2011/12/power-laws-in-finance.html

There are also several papers on this very topic that you can find via Google that I didn't include here because they may be too technical.

With respect to your question though: Can you describe what you mean by one tail vs two tails? is this a limitation of your data or the choice of parameters for your power law graph?
 
Thanks for the quick reply.
That article is exactly what I am trying to do.

What I meant by one tail is I can calculate say a graph like this for the positive returns;

550plain-power-law.jpg


But I am not sure of the formula I need to use to get the overall distribution or bell shape.

Even better, if this is called a particular distribution I would prefer to generate the graph in a software package. I downloaded Easyfit 5.5, but the power law distribution produces what I am describing as a "one tail" distribution such as the image above and not like the image in my original post.

Thanks :)
 
Excel is the worst tool available for anything statistical. You could try "R" - a powerful yet free statistical software package. I believe (based on memory from a year or so ago) that there is even a package for R that will aid in generating the type of distribution you want.
 

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