How to Determine Uncertainty of a Probability with Experimental Data?

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To determine the uncertainty of a probability derived from experimental data, one can apply the technique of propagation of uncertainty. This involves recognizing that the data used to calculate the probability has its own uncertainty, which affects the final probability value. In the example given, where the probability is 46/234, the uncertainty can be calculated based on the number of trials and the observed outcomes. While external resources like PDFs can provide guidance, they may not directly address specific questions about individual calculations. Understanding how to apply these principles is crucial for accurately reporting experimental probabilities.
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If i have experimentally determined a probability of an event with two possible outcomes to be, say, 46/234, how can I attatch an uncertainty value to this?
 
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You used some formula to calculate the probability from your data. Your data has an uncertainty. Therefore, by propogation of uncertainty, your probability has an uncertainty. That is, you use the technique of propagation of uncertainty to find the uncertainty.

If your first year, check this out:
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=196445
 
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Thank you, I read the pdf, and I found it useful, but I did not find the answer to my question. I didn't use a formula to calculate the probability, I just observed that I got this outcome 43 out of 234 times
 
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