Fukushima Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP

[Caniche]

Sellafield MOX reprocessing facility closing down as a direct consequence of Fukushima.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/aug/03/sellafield-mox-plant-close

Thank goodness, in these times of austerity the taxpayer can ill afford to subsidise a private nuclear concern to the tune of £1.4 billion. Now we just have to ditch the other £3.1 billion subsidy to this super efficient industry. Where is the "free market" when your life depends on it

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jn5dpQ-4-LeFD6NZ_yzv2njTZ5aA?docId=CNG.de226b3f8ca77186559071adc6e480e0.4c1

Forty-five percent of children tested in the region around Japan's stricken nuclear plant were found to have traces of radioactive elements in their thyroid glands, an official said Thursday.
The official said that the iodine concentrations -- found in tests that the government carried out about five months ago in Fukushima prefecture -- were not considered alarming in terms of their health impact.
"The government's official position is that none of the children showed radiation levels that would be problematic," he told AFP.

 

[tsutsuji]

and http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110819/0820_shinosenmap.html Tepco and JAEA, using a Kyoto University measurement system have created a new radiation map on Google Earth displaying the measurements made by (a) monitoring car(s) running on the roads in the 100 km range over a total distance of 17,000 km since mid-June. The car(s) made one measurement every 10 seconds. Radiations may increase 10-fold between locations separated by only 100 m.

 

[zapperzero]

Radiations may increase 10-fold between locations separated by only 100 m.

Hotspots.

 

[Jim Lagerfeld]

North winds and rain for the first time in quite a while in Tokyo, while we were all out enjoying the a break from the heatwave, environmental radiation clearly spiked during the short rain storm - from o.o65 to 0.01 uSv in Kawasaki, 0.058 to 0.093 in Saitama city. You can see it very clearly here: http://guregoro.sakura.ne.jp/radioactivity/kanagawa/ and a screen grab here

data is taken from official prefectural monitoring stations.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.47news.jp/CN/201108/CN2011082001000306.html An experiment is made in a rice field at Iitate-Mura where growing rice is forbidden. They spread a fixation agent. After one week, they remove the crust with agricultural machinery. The chemical cost being ¥ 170 / m² , the problem is to lower the cost.

 

[zapperzero]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110820p2g00m0dm013000c.html

cumulative radiation in the town of Namie, 22 km northwest of the plant, was estimated at 115 millisieverts over the five-month period, the highest among locations outside the zone and equivalent to 229 millisieverts over a 12-month period.

Words cannot express my anger.

 

[alpi]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110820p2g00m0dm013000c.html


Words cannot express my anger.

Would it be better to forcibly evacuate more people despite what is said here http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,780810,00.html ? Don't think so.

 

[zapperzero]

Would it be better to forcibly evacuate more people despite what is said here http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,780810,00.html ? Don't think so.

Forcibly? Straw man argument.

Problem: as of today, anything beyond the 20km exclusion radius around Fukushima NPP is considered "normal". Therefore, people wishing to relocate cannot get any help from either gov't or TEPCO.

Problem: 0.2 Sieverts is way beyond the level at which you expect to start seeing definite health effects.

So yea, <text removed> I didn't think I could get any angrier.

 

[nikkkom]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110820p2g00m0dm013000c.html
"cumulative radiation in the town of Namie, 22 km northwest of the plant, was estimated at 115 millisieverts over the five-month period, the highest among locations outside the zone and equivalent to 229 millisieverts over a 12-month period."

Words cannot express my anger.

Can you elaborate?

 

[zapperzero]

Can you elaborate?

On the anger issue? I am afraid this is the wrong thread. I am angry because the town should have been evacuated, with full support from TEPCO and the Japanese gov't.

 

[Astronuc]

Would it be better to forcibly evacuate more people despite what is said here http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,780810,00.html ? Don't think so.

TEPCO and the government should support folks who would like to leave, as in voluntary evacuation, rather than live with exposure to the radioactivity/radiation that TEPCO caused.

 

[Gary7]

I would point out that some of the city of Namie is located within the 20 km evacuation zone, and some is within the wider "planned evacuation zone". The city government of Namie has encouraged people to relocate, and they are assisting people in this regard. There are temporary shelters set up in Fukushima city for use by residents of Namie, and there are a number of schemes from the city, prefecture, and national government set up to provide cash for the citizens of Namie. Information direct from the Namie city hall website http://www.town.namie.fukushima.jp/ .

Recently there are also movements to get cash settlements from Tepco.

Whether or not all the above is sufficient or fair or just, I shall leave it to others to hash out on the political thread.

 

[zapperzero]

I would point out that some of the city of Namie is located within the 20 km evacuation zone, and some is within the wider "planned evacuation zone". The city government of Namie has encouraged people to relocate, and they are assisting people in this regard. There are temporary shelters set up in Fukushima city for use by residents of Namie, and there are a number of schemes from the city, prefecture, and national government set up to provide cash for the citizens of Namie. Information direct from the Namie city hall website http://www.town.namie.fukushima.jp/ .

Recently there are also movements to get cash settlements from Tepco.

Whether or not all the above is sufficient or fair or just, I shall leave it to others to hash out on the political thread.

The site says there were tsunami refugees living in a shelter in Namie, as late as this month.
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=ro&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http://www.town.namie.fukushima.jp/%3Fp%3D6422&usg=ALkJrhgR9QrO6h8iTA1jcUM166dY0gtrJw
There is also talk there of building temporary housing. This does not sound like a planned evacuation!

Not a question of politics, but of public health and radiation safety.

 

[rowmag]

North winds and rain for the first time in quite a while in Tokyo, while we were all out enjoying the a break from the heatwave, environmental radiation clearly spiked during the short rain storm - from o.o65 to 0.01 uSv in Kawasaki, 0.058 to 0.093 in Saitama city. You can see it very clearly here: http://guregoro.sakura.ne.jp/radioactivity/kanagawa/ and a screen grab here

data is taken from official prefectural monitoring stations.

Yes, I had noticed this in another location which was also downwind of Fukushima Daiichi and raining heavily that day. Two questions, for anyone who knows:

1) Why did the levels drop again after the rain stopped? If it was Cesium being brought down, should it not have remained on the ground and raised the background level permanently afterwards (as happened in the March bursts in several places)? But it doesn't, it drops back to the previous level after the rain stops. Why the difference this time from the spikes in March?

2) What does this imply about the ongoing level of atmospheric emissions from the plant?

 

[Gary7]

I don't wish to engage in a polemic about what the country, prefecture, or city is doing (or isn't doing) to insure the health of its citizens. I was pointing out that parts of Namie are within the evacuation zone, and other parts are in the "planned evacuation zone" (whether or not the "planned" in either the translation or the original Japanese is appropriate or not I leave to the linguists). And I was also pointing out the existence of financial help at the national, prefectural, and city level. I would be extremely surprised if anyone in Namie city is finding life to be normal.

The Adatara Stadium in the article for which you provided the link, is part of the temporary shelters available to the residents of Namie. It is located in the city of Nihonmatsu, some 10 miles or so beyond the "planned evacuation zone". It is being returned to its original function as a stadium, and so Namie town is asking those sheltering in that stadium to relocate to other temporary shelters (which are located throughout Nihonmatsu and Fukushima city).

 

[zapperzero]

I don't wish to engage in a polemic about what the country, prefecture, or city is doing (or isn't doing) to insure the health of its citizens.

Yet, this is exactly what you are doing.

I was pointing out that parts of Namie are within the evacuation zone, and other parts are in the "planned evacuation zone" (whether or not the "planned" in either the translation or the original Japanese is appropriate or not I leave to the linguists). And I was also pointing out the existence of financial help at the national, prefectural, and city level. I would be extremely surprised if anyone in Namie city is finding life to be normal.

I, for one, am extremely surprised that there is still anyone in Namie city. Do you happen to know why this is so?

The Adatara Stadium in the article for which you provided the link, is part of the temporary shelters available to the residents of Namie. It is located in the city of Nihonmatsu, some 10 miles or so beyond the "planned evacuation zone". It is being returned to its original function as a stadium, and so Namie town is asking those sheltering in that stadium to relocate to other temporary shelters (which are located throughout Nihonmatsu and Fukushima city).

Oh. Fukushima city. That makes it all better... not.

Have you seen this?
http://www.town.namie.fukushima.jp/?p=6455

16 uSv/h in the air (h=1m) on school grounds? Please tell me no-one is actually going to school there! It comes out to 20-something mSv/year, even assuming 8hr days, six months vacations and no other exposure!

 

[nikkkom]

You know, I am very critical of nuclear industry and government. However, I also try to be reasonable in what I demand/expect from them. You are not.

I, for one, am extremely surprised that there is still anyone in Namie city. Do you happen to know why this is so?

Oh. Fukushima city. That makes it all better... not.

Where do you want people to be relocated? South pole?
Namie is right in the center of the north-westerly radioactive fallout strip. Fukushima city is four times farther from F1 and has contamination levels about 20 times lower than Namie. I don't see what's wrong in relocating people from Namie to Fukushima city.

Have you seen this?
http://www.town.namie.fukushima.jp/?p=6455

16 uSv/h in the air (h=1m) on school grounds? Please tell me no-one is actually going to school there!

I think schools don't work in August.

It comes out to 20-something mSv/year, even assuming 8hr days, six months vacations and no other exposure!

2 roentgen/year, yeah. Everybody will die DIE DIE DIE! I mean, can you calm down please for a second?

Even discounting the effects of further decrease of these levels due to decay, natural washout and decontamination, this level of *external* exposure is not notably dangerous. For the comparison, people in Pripyat got upwards of 30 roentgens *in one day*. Now _that_ was a serious exposure.

The bigger problem is internal exposure (children will drink local water and inhale dust and get Cs and Sr in their body and bones). Japan government needs to start decontamination programme (in fact, I expected it to be in full swing by now) to make cities and roads safer. I am puzzled that this does not seem to be happening. If I would be a Japanese, I'd be angry at _that_.

 

[Gary7]

As I said, I am not interested in a polemical discussion. However, if my pointing out factual errors is considered polemical, I am ready to stand unrepentantly guilty.

I have no idea whether or not people are still living in Namie, but since part of it is in the mandatory evacuation zone, and since the city has encouraged residents to leave, I would be surprised if there were many still living there. Regarding the schools, according to the Namie city website, the students have been relocated to schools outside of the evacuation zone.

 

[zapperzero]

You know, I am very critical of nuclear industry and government. However, I also try to be reasonable in what I demand/expect from them. You are not.

Ad hominem.

Where do you want people to be relocated? South pole?

Oh, anywhere East of a line running N-S 30 km East of Fukushima NPP should do, for now. Not on the coast, though.

Namie is right in the center of the north-westerly radioactive fallout strip. Fukushima city is four times farther from F1 and has contamination levels about 20 times lower than Namie. I don't see what's wrong in relocating people from Namie to Fukushima city.

There are hotspots in Fukushima city too. They have not been mapped properly, let alone decontaminated. It is not a good place to be, especially for people who have already gotten a significant dose.

I think schools don't work in August.

Yes. They stopped in July and will resume in September.

2 roentgen/year, yeah. Everybody will die DIE DIE DIE! I mean, can you calm down please for a second?

These guys http://www.wellesley.edu/ScienceCenter/Safety/maximum.html say 0.5 R should be maximum exposure per year for a member of the general public. What makes you believe otherwise?

Even discounting the effects of further decrease of these levels due to decay, natural washout and decontamination, this level of *external* exposure is not notably dangerous.

No? Again, citation please, as they say on Wikipedia. Also, please remember that this is only the dose from going to school we're talking about. I doubt the rest of the city is much cleaner.

For the comparison, people in Pripyat got upwards of 30 roentgens *in one day*. Now _that_ was a serious exposure.

And they were evacuated. What is your point?

The bigger problem is internal exposure (children will drink local water and inhale dust and get Cs and Sr in their body and bones).

Yes. There is that. In fact, 16 uSv/h at 1 meter from the ground, so long after the accident and with infinitesimal current release rates, pretty much spells "cesium in the ground, and lots of it".

Japan government needs to start decontamination programme (in fact, I expected it to be in full swing by now) to make cities and roads safer. I am puzzled that this does not seem to be happening. If I would be a Japanese, I'd be angry at _that_.

I am more than puzzled. I am angry. I am also not Japanese, so I must seem strange to you, I realize.

 

[Bodge]

High concentrations of radioactive isotopes of Neptunium, Lanthanum, Yttrium, Barium, Strontium, Cobalt, Silver and Zirconium found 35km from Fuk-1.

In 'plant species' upto 500 beq/kg of Neptunium-239 was found.

Were there is Neptunium there has to be Plutonium and Uranium too.

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/08/neptunium-239-was-indeed-detected-in.html

 

[joewein]

Here is the slide show containing the data:
http://user.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~cshozu/images/seminar.pdf

 

[rmattila]

Yes, I had noticed this in another location which was also downwind of Fukushima Daiichi and raining heavily that day. Two questions, for anyone who knows:

1) Why did the levels drop again after the rain stopped? If it was Cesium being brought down, should it not have remained on the ground and raised the background level permanently afterwards (as happened in the March bursts in several places)? But it doesn't, it drops back to the previous level after the rain stops. Why the difference this time from the spikes in March?

2) What does this imply about the ongoing level of atmospheric emissions from the plant?

If there's radon in the soil (I don't know what the situation is in Japan), one explanation for external radiation peaks during and briefly after heavy rainfall could be wash-down of short-lived daughters on Rn-222: http://www.hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q1241.html

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/22/world/asia/22japan.html?_r=1

NYT says official admission that the exclusion zone will remain closed indefinitely is due in the next few days. Still nothing about hotspots outside it.

EDITED for sensationalism

 

[alpi]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/22/world/asia/22japan.html?_r=1

Official admission that the exclusion zone will remain closed indefinitely

Is "The New York Times" an official? Or ex-skf.blogspot?

 

[zapperzero]

Is "The New York Times" an official? Or ex-skf.blogspot?

NYT is citing "major media outlets" which in turn are speculating on an imminent gov't move. Also, although I follow ex-skf, I found this with google. I see where you're heading, though, and will amend my previous, if still possible.

 

[zapperzero]

Is "The New York Times" an official? Or ex-skf.blogspot?

Apparently the source is Naoto Kan, as cited by Kyodo news agency.
http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110822D22JF463.htm

 

[rowmag]

If there's radon in the soil (I don't know what the situation is in Japan), one explanation for external radiation peaks during and briefly after heavy rainfall could be wash-down of short-lived daughters on Rn-222: http://www.hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q1241.html

Thank you. Interesting. I had no idea.

So the wind coming from Fukushima Daiichi would have been just a coincidence, if this was the cause. (Or... could radon created by uranium decay in the melted/damaged fuel have been blown over? Would that even make sense?)

 

[nikkkom]

Where do you want people to be relocated? South pole?

Oh, anywhere East of a line running N-S 30 km East of Fukushima NPP should do, for now. Not on the coast, though.

Please be informed that Fukushima city is about 40 kilometers to the East from F1 NPP, and about the same distance to the North. (Google maps says that distance from it to F1 is ~61 km, and 40^2 + 40^2 < 60^2, so at least one side of the triangle should be more than 40 km).

IOW: Fukushima city fulfils your criteria above.

 

[zapperzero]

Please be informed that Fukushima city is about 40 kilometers to the East from F1 NPP, and about the same distance to the North. (Google maps says that distance from it to F1 is ~61 km, and 40^2 + 40^2 < 60^2, so at least one side of the triangle should be more than 40 km).

IOW: Fukushima city fulfils your criteria above.

You may want to check that compass of yours

 

[Bodge]

Regarding radioactive Sulfur-35,

"Our model predicts that the concentration in the marine boundary layer at Fukushima, was approximately 200,000 atoms per m3, which is approximately 365 times above expected natural concentrations."

They believe approx. 0.7% of that reached Scripps, California.

S-35 was produced by neutron bombardment of seawater.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/08/11/1109449108.abstract

Please see my post in the other https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3463999&postcount=11012"

 

[alpi]

Regarding radioactive Sulfur-35,

"Our model predicts that the concentration in the marine boundary layer at Fukushima, was approximately 200,000 atoms per m3, which is approximately 365 times above expected natural concentrations."

They believe approx. 0.7% of that reached Scripps, California. ...

Why would anyone care what these people believe?

 

[jim hardy]

There were significant solar flares Feb 15 and March 9. I assume Scripps scientists would allow for them...

i didnt see in article linked a mention of that, only that solar flares are a natural source of that sulfur isotope.

old jim

 

[Bodge]

Re. Solar Flares and 'their model',

I don't have access to PNAS, maybe you can take it up with the authors:

Antra Priyadarshi, Gerardo Dominguez, Mark H. Thiemens

abstract: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/08/11/1109449108.abstract

supporting info: http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2011/08/15/1109449108.DCSupplemental/pnas.1109449108_SI.pdf

BTW, they actually wrote that 0.7% of the FUK-1 sulfur concentration reached "southern California", not Scripps - that was my mistake.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110823/0445_jokusenryo.html Helicopter borne radiation surveys will be started before next October in 22 prefectures from Aomori to Aichi. The surveys must be done before snow starts falling. At present helicopter surveys have been released only for Fukushima, Miyagi and Ibaraki. The results of the Tochigi helicopter survey will be released soon. The helicopter survey is already started in Yamagata. It is starting in Gunma on 23 August, and by the end of this month in Niigata. Some of the other prefectures will use their own helicopters instead of the ministry of education and science ones. Helicopters fly at a 150~300 m altitude, and the surface radiation levels have to be computed from the helicopter gamma ray data. The 22 prefectures are Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata, Iwate, Fukushima, Aomori, Tokyo, Nagano, Niigata, Yamanashi, Kanagawa, Gunma, Ibaraki, Chiba, Tochigi, Saitama, Aichi, Ishikawa, Shizuoka, Fukui, Toyama, Gifu.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110823/0445_hoshikusa.html Fukushima prefecture has completed a report on the causes of the cow contamination case that was found last week. Although the hay was imported from abroad and stored indoors, as it is known that the surrounding area was highly contaminated, it is believed that the hay was contaminated by the air flowing into the cowhouse's walkway where the straw was stored. Although no straw was remaining in the cowhouse for analysis, Fukushima prefecture insists that "the cause is known" and that the Fukushima beef ban must be lifted. [Worse of all, does not this seem to imply that the theory that chickens and pigs are safe because they are grown indoors and fed with imported food, is collapsing?]

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110824/index.html The ministry of education has officially discarded its goal to achieve less than 20 mSv / year or 3.8 μSv / hour in schools. Instead the goal is now 1 mSv / year or 1 μSv / hour.

http://www.aist.go.jp/aist_j/press_release/pr2011/pr20110824/pr20110824.html A press release of the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology nano particles department, saying they developed nano particles of prussian blue available in different shapes suitable for many kinds of cesium decontamination operations.

 

[zapperzero]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110824/index.html The ministry of education has officially discarded its goal to achieve less than 20 mSv / year or 3.8 μSv / hour in schools. Instead the goal is now 1 mSv / year or 1 μSv / hour.

Excellent news!

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201108240292.html
TEPCO announces it will start monitoring local fallout (5-10 km radius) and steam emissions from the plant. Also planned: new radiation sensors for drywells.

Better extremely, unaccountably, criminally late than never, eh?

 

[NUCENG]

http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201108240292.html
TEPCO announces it will start monitoring local fallout (5-10 km radius) and steam emissions from the plant. Also planned: new radiation sensors for drywells.

Better extremely, unaccountably, criminally late than never, eh?

The article says they are using water filled tubs tubs as a new collection method to determine if measurements they conducted in July and August are overestimating releases by including radiation deposited and re-released as airborne radioactivity. Your comment implies that they haven't been monitoring previouslywhich is disproven by the article references to monitoring in July and August. If their new method allows them to be more accurate on release measurements and lowers the estimated releases, that is good news for the Japanese. But my guess is that you will be disappointed or even accuse them of fudging the results.

The news that the exposure standards for schools and children have been lowered is good news. Implementing better measurement methods that reveal more information about what is really happening is good news. Temperatures on RPVs dropping belpow 100 DegC is good news. If you don't recognize what is good, it will hurt your credibility on your valid criticisms. If we continually beat up TEPCO and GovJapan when they are doing something right, what motivation do they have to continue to tell us anything or expend the effort to provide information in English?

 

[zapperzero]

The article says they are using water filled tubs tubs as a new collection method to determine if measurements they conducted in July and August are overestimating releases by including radiation deposited and re-released as airborne radioactivity. Your comment implies that they haven't been monitoring previously which is disproven by the article references to monitoring in July and August. If their new method allows them to be more accurate on release measurements and lowers the estimated releases, that is good news for the Japanese. But my guess is that you will be disappointed or even accuse them of fudging the results.

The news that the exposure standards for schools and children have been lowered is good news. Implementing better measurement methods that reveal more information about what is really happening is good news. Temperatures on RPVs dropping belpow 100 DegC is good news. If you don't recognize what is good, it will hurt your credibility on your valid criticisms. If we continually beat up TEPCO and GovJapan when they are doing something right, what motivation do they have to continue to tell us anything or expend the effort to provide information in English?

Yes. It is all good news, I honestly meant what I said: better late than never. Have you seen the July and August numbers they are referring to? I must have missed them.

OTOH I still haven't seen the data re: steam that they had promised to gather since June, iirc, the helicopter survey was pushed back to October (firmly in "next gov't's problem" land) and so on and so forth.

IMO, the reason we are getting any information at all is simple and has nothing to do with our goodwill: there is a line between "apparent bumbling inefficiency" and "outright lies, in violation of various laws". TEPCO and the J-gov are staying (to their credit, ultimately) JUST on the lawful side of that line.

EDIT: There are skeletons in the closet. Have you seen this?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3468442&postcount=288

 

[NUCENG]

Yes. It is all good news, I honestly meant what I said: better late than never. Have you seen the July and August numbers they are referring to? I must have missed them.

OTOH I still haven't seen the data re: steam that they had promised to gather since June, iirc, the helicopter survey was pushed back to October (firmly in "next gov't's problem" land) and so on and so forth.

IMO, the reason we are getting any information at all is simple and has nothing to do with our goodwill: there is a line between "apparent bumbling inefficiency" and "outright lies, in violation of various laws". TEPCO and the J-gov are staying (to their credit, ultimately) JUST on the lawful side of that line.

EDIT: There are skeletons in the closet. Have you seen this?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3468442&postcount=288

The July and August measurements were used to estimate the ongoing release rate. They have published the estimates, but I have not seen the data or calculation details.

I understand your opinion, but in your comment you were talking about criminal. That would require the deficiencies to be either negligent or deliberate. If so I will wait for the Japanese courts to decide that issue, because I have no proof. I doubt that the technicians making the measurements after having their pay cut will be silent when that invrestigation gets going.

I don't know why they didn't sample the steam, but they were measuring the air and fallout offsite which is the cumulative effect of steam and gaseous releases and windblown contamination. Is there a reason that the portion due to steam was more important?

Yes I saw Tsutsuji's post and pointed out that I had seen indications that TEPCO knew about the 869 eartquake during the post-KK earthquake reviews and ignored it.

In short There are many problems included in this accident. As an engineer, I seek facts and solutions. It is tempting to try to make our posts memorable by using trigger words, like "criminal", but it isn't helpful in a search for truth. I am suggesting that we all think before we push the Submit Reply button. Is what I wrote fair? Is it supported by facts. If it is opinion, did I label it as my opinion and have I explained how I got there? Does it add to the discussion?

 

[zapperzero]

Look, I know I am prone to using emotionally-charged language. Just not this time. Bad decisions made before the fact (and their consequences), are being hidden with inconsequential half-truths, obfuscation and delays.

The July and August measurements were used to estimate the ongoing release rate. They have published the estimates, but I have not seen the data or calculation details.

Nor has anyone outside TEPCO. Why do you suppose that is? How about the overall source term calculation?

I understand your opinion, but in your comment you were talking about criminal. That would require the deficiencies to be either negligent or deliberate. If so I will wait for the Japanese courts to decide that issue, because I have no proof. I doubt that the technicians making the measurements after having their pay cut will be silent when that invrestigation gets going.

IF an investigation gets going. But will the J-gov investigate?

I don't know why they didn't sample the steam, but they were measuring the air and fallout offsite which is the cumulative effect of steam and gaseous releases and windblown contamination. Is there a reason that the portion due to steam was more important?

More important than what? We do not have access to fallout data from within the zone, either. We get bits and pieces, here and there.

Yes I saw Tsutsuji's post and pointed out that I had seen indications that TEPCO knew about the 869 eartquake during the post-KK earthquake reviews and ignored it.

There's your criminal negligence, right there. So, reckless endangerment of plant workers and people living around the plant, at the very least. Possible manslaughter charges, should anyone eventually turn up dead because of what the tsunami did to the NPP.

In short There are many problems included in this accident. As an engineer, I seek facts and solutions. It is tempting to try to make our posts memorable by using trigger words, like "criminal", but it isn't helpful in a search for truth. I am suggesting that we all think before we push the Submit Reply button. Is what I wrote fair? Is it supported by facts. If it is opinion, did I label it as my opinion and have I explained how I got there? Does it add to the discussion?

I would like to ask you to please take a look at the system called "Fukushima NPP". Its current state encodes the consequences of many events; some are natural and some man-made. Do you suggest that in our search for the truth of what happened we discard from analysis the man-made ones?

When thinking of the safety of NPPs (or of any other artifacts) must we think of the people who are operating them and the ways their action or inaction may influence the safety of the system?

 

[NUCENG]

Look, I know I am prone to using emotionally-charged language. Just not this time. Bad decisions made before the fact (and their consequences), are being hidden with inconsequential half-truths, obfuscation and delays.


Nor has anyone outside TEPCO. Why do you suppose that is? How about the overall source term calculation?


IF an investigation gets going. But will the J-gov investigate?


More important than what? We do not have access to fallout data from within the zone, either. We get bits and pieces, here and there.


There's your criminal negligence, right there. So, reckless endangerment of plant workers and people living around the plant, at the very least. Possible manslaughter charges, should anyone eventually turn up dead because of what the tsunami did to the NPP.


I would like to ask you to please take a look at the system called "Fukushima NPP". Its current state encodes the consequences of many events; some are natural and some man-made. Do you suggest that in our search for the truth of what happened we discard from analysis the man-made ones?


When thinking of the safety of NPPs (or of any other artifacts) must we think of the people who are operating them and the ways their action or inaction may influence the safety of the system?

I am not suggesting that we discard or ignore anything. Right now the most important things are to stabilize and cool the plant, restore some degree of containment to eliminate ongoing releases. Once that is done the Japanese will have time for investigation for causes and corrective actions including criminal proceedings, if the evidence supports it. I doubt that any government that follows Mr. Kan would survive if they whitewash this event.

I will not defend the mistakes that have been made, but the sheer magnitude of the economic loss and social upset from evacuations and fear and distrust that have followed will be nearly impossible to resolve unless somebody is held responsible. But that is an issue for the Japanese to resolve in their courts and under their laws. I am sure that some of the mistakes we see today may be caused by training weaknesses or errors in procedures. Those problems may not be criminal and it is premature to start hanging people. Others, like potential negligence in considering the tsunami design basis, may require assigning blame to regulators as well as utility personnel.

Another consideration is that in the earthquake/tsunami, the Japanese have suffered thousands of people dead and injured, thousands of homes and businesses destroyed, and are faced with some very serious decisions for their future. On this forum we are concentrating only on a small part of the problems they face. They can legitimately have some vastly different priorities than we may see here.

I want to learn as much as I can from the mistakes that have been made and the lessons that are there to learn. That will only happen if we are fair in evaluating what is good as well as what was wrong. I don't suggest that your emotionally-charged language is unjustified, but I wonder if it actually hurts the effectiveness of your arguments. I have lived in Japan and I have a lot of confidence that they will listen to the help they are getting from the rest of the world and adopt some of it, but they will also find some of their own solutions.

 

[tsutsuji]

Morino, Y., T. Ohara, and M. Nishizawa, "Atmospheric behavior, deposition, and budget of radioactive materials from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011", Geophysical Research Letter, accepted 11 August 2011:

A budget analysis indicated that approximately 13% of iodine-131 and 22% of cesium-137 were deposited over land in Japan, and the rest was deposited over the ocean or transported out of the model domain (700 × 700 km2).
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2011GL048689.shtml

Takeda, M., M. Yamauchi, M. Makino, and T. Owada (2011), "Initial effect of the Fukushima accident on atmospheric electricity", Geophysical Research Letter, 38, published 12 August 2011 :

Vertical atmospheric DC electric field at ground level, or potential gradient (PG), suddenly dropped by one order of magnitude at Kakioka, 150 km southwest from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (FNPP) right after the plant released a massive amount of radioactive material southward on 14 March, 2011.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL048511.shtml

"No radioactive substances found so far in rice harvested in Fukushima", but...

Meanwhile, the Chiba prefectural government said 47 becquerels per kilogram of cesium were detected in preharvest rice in the prefectural city of Shiroi.
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110826p2g00m0dm015000c.html

 

[rmattila]

Olivier Masson et al:

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es2017158

Environ. Sci. Technol., Article ASAP
DOI: 10.1021/es2017158
Publication Date (Web): August 2, 2011

Abstract is free, the whole article requires subscription.

The data set provided in this paper is the most comprehensive survey of the main relevant airborne radionuclides from the Fukushima reactors, measured across Europe. A rough estimate of the total 131I inventory that has passed over Europe during this period was <1% of the released amount. According to the measurements, airborne activity levels remain of no concern for public health in Europe.

 

[zapperzero]

I am not suggesting that we discard or ignore anything. Right now the most important things are to stabilize and cool the plant, restore some degree of containment to eliminate ongoing releases.

That activity too seems to be hindered by an unwillingness to find (and thus make public) unpleasant facts, on the part of TEPCO, at least. Once again, the human factor interferes with engineering.

Once that is done the Japanese will have time for investigation for causes and corrective actions including criminal proceedings, if the evidence supports it. I doubt that any government that follows Mr. Kan would survive if they whitewash this event.

I will not defend the mistakes that have been made, but the sheer magnitude of the economic loss and social upset from evacuations and fear and distrust that have followed will be nearly impossible to resolve unless somebody is held responsible. But that is an issue for the Japanese to resolve in their courts and under their laws. I am sure that some of the mistakes we see today may be caused by training weaknesses or errors in procedures. Those problems may not be criminal and it is premature to start hanging people. Others, like potential negligence in considering the tsunami design basis, may require assigning blame to regulators as well as utility personnel.

Another consideration is that in the earthquake/tsunami, the Japanese have suffered thousands of people dead and injured, thousands of homes and businesses destroyed, and are faced with some very serious decisions for their future. On this forum we are concentrating only on a small part of the problems they face. They can legitimately have some vastly different priorities than we may see here.

I want to learn as much as I can from the mistakes that have been made and the lessons that are there to learn. That will only happen if we are fair in evaluating what is good as well as what was wrong. I don't suggest that your emotionally-charged language is unjustified, but I wonder if it actually hurts the effectiveness of your arguments. I have lived in Japan and I have a lot of confidence that they will listen to the help they are getting from the rest of the world and adopt some of it, but they will also find some of their own solutions.

For the second and hopefully last time: when I say "criminal" I am not trying to inflame anyone, nor am I expressing an emotion. I am stating the facts, as I understand them to be. It is for the Japanese to deal with their own, for sure.

Because I believe some of the actors of this drama may have commited crimes, I am concerned that the truth about what happened and why (which should by rights belong to mankind, as nuclear accidents have the potential to affect us all) will get lost, or misplaced, or actively hidden.

 

[zapperzero]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304567604576453342206030686.html

A Wall Street Journal investigation of Japan's efforts to protect people living around the stricken plant reveals that government officials failed to warn those [Namie] residents despite projections showing a risk of radioactive contamination

 

[tsutsuji]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304567604576453342206030686.html

Let's hope the IAEA has a subscription to the Wall Street Journal so that the people who wrote "evacuation, has been impressive and extremely well organized" (http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima/missionsummary010611.pdf ) have a chance to revise their opinions. I wonder what the findings will be if a systematic survey is made concerning how iodine pills were distributed after the accident. Which percentage of concerned children received the pills in a timely manner ?

There is a 22 March Yomiuri article on this topic :

Some municipal governments in Fukushima Prefecture distributed pills containing nonradioactive iodine without waiting for the central government's go-ahead, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned.

(...)

Hidehiko Nishiyama, a senior official of the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, said Saturday night, "On the morning of March 16, we instructed the prefectural government to give iodine medicine to people who were evacuating from inside the 20-kilometer zone."

The evacuations had been completed by shortly after noon on March 15, however.

(...)

A NISA official said, "(...) as it turned out nobody actually received the pills."

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110321004250.htm

but this seems to concern the decision to give pills around 15 or 16 March. How many people in the evacuated groups received pills on 12 March ?

Did the local governments have a manual telling them how to proceed with pill distribution ?

 

[tsutsuji]

http://mainichi.jp/select/today/news/20110830k0000m040082000c.html Two maps of Earth contamination have been released. One is prepared by the ministry of Education and science and covers 2,200 locations in the 100 km range around the plant. It shows that the worse place is in Ookuma with 1,545,000 Bq/m² of cesium. 34 places in Minamisoma, Tomioka, Ookuma, Futaba, Namie and Iitate are above the 1,480,000 Bq/m² evacuation level decided by authorities in Chernobyl. The other one, prepared by the ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, shows where 5000 Bq/kg is exceeded, forbidding to grow rice, among 360 locations in Fukushima prefecture and 220 locations in Miyagi, Tochigi, Gunma, Ibaraki and Chiba prefectures. Both maps will be available on http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/ on 30 August. The ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries plans to extend its survey to 3000 locations.

"Shipments of early-harvested rice start in Fukushima Prefecture":

According to the Fukushima Prefectural Government, a small amount of radioactive cesium totaling 22 becquerels per kilogram against the government-set allowable limit of 500 becquerels was detected only in raw rice in Nihonmatsu's former Odaira village district.
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110829p2a00m0na010000c.html

 

[Gary7]

Looks like the map will be released tomorrow (30th for those of us here in Japan).
http://www.fnn-news.com/news/headlines/articles/CONN00206426.html