etudiant said:
Thank you, that is most helpful data. The sharp loss of pressure in reactor 1 before 2.45 am on Mar 12 would fit nicely with the timeline recording reactor products 6 km away a few hours later.
As you point out, the leak does not appear to be directly from the quake, but rather a subsequent pressure generated failure. Still, it indicates that the integrity of the facility was materially compromised even before the explosions.
I forgot to include TEPCOs own thoughts on containment damage which came out in the 2nd half of may as part of a very long Japanese report that had not been fully translated into english last time we talked about it, and I presume it still hasnt. But there were some press stories about it which we talked about here, and I computer-translated a few paragraphs that were related to the timing of containment failures.
Their assumptions, which were apparently based on things such as pressure readings, don't exactly match what I've been saying, although they are not too far off for some reactors.
For reactor 1 they estimated a leak equivalent to a 3cm hole in drywell 18 hours after quake. Worsening to 7cm by 50 hours after quake. So here they are already admitting to some containment damage by the morning of 12th, although some 4 hours later than I guestimated based on a few pressure readings.
For reactor 2 they estimated a leak equivalent to a 10cm hole in drywell 21 hours after quake. Suppression chamber damage obviously followed at a later date, when the 'strange sound was heard. Drywell damage at 21 hours after quake is late on morning of 12th, a bit too late to blame this for the data 6km away.
I suppose it is possible that these '18 hours' and '21 hours' estimates that TEPCO mentioned are not supposed to be the exact starting times for containment failure, but rather an indication of how bad the damage may be at that moment. eg if damage equivalent to 3cm at around 8:30, maybe there could have been damage equivalent to 1cm at 5am. I cannot tell until I see full translation, and even then I would not be surprised if this remains a little unclear. Its not as if when I study what pressure data is available to us, the times TEPCO said fit perfectly with a dramatic event shown in data at precisely these times.
Anyway TEPCOs analysis of reactor 3 may be of particular interest to those seeking possible earthquake damage, because as discussed when press articles appeared on this subject some days ago, TEPCO seem to be suggesting that some piping system may have been damaged at reactor 3 by the earthquake itself. Again I wait in hope of full document translation, and I have no idea whether such early damage may be responsible for any of the radiation being picked up on morning of march 12th.