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I am having a hard time understanding which factors should be taken into account and which ones should not be taken into account when calculating probability.

I have the following situation:

Last night I played FIFA12 on xbox live against an unknown opponent. He challenged me to a rematch after the match was over.

I would like to calculate the chance I would have had of winning if I would have said "yes" to the rematch.

However, upon trying to calculate the chance (using Bayes' theory for example), I quickly gathered countless factors such as:

- previous personal win/loss ratio
- the fact he first scored a goal in the first 10 minutes of the first half
- the fact I scored two goals the last 20 minutes of the second half
- his predictability
- my predictability
- my fatigue at that hour; mentally as well as phyiscally
- the knowledge the opponent has about my strategy after having played a match with me
- how tired my opponent is
- the opponent's fatigue; mentally as well as physically
- if he is a night person or not

I keep thinking of factors such as these and I am not sure which ones would be valid factors for probability calculation. I am getting lost.

Does anyone have an idea on this?

Thank you

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# Probability factors?

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