Probability of bridge collapsing

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The discussion centers on calculating the probability of exactly one bridge collapsing in Dystopia county, where the Elder bridge has a 17% chance, the Younger bridge a 6% chance, and the Ancient bridge a 24% chance of collapse. The initial misunderstanding involved averaging the probabilities instead of focusing on the specific scenario of one bridge collapsing while the others remain intact. The correct approach involves calculating the probabilities of each individual bridge collapsing while the other two do not. This requires using the principles of probability, specifically the multiplication rule for independent events. The solution emphasizes the need to combine these probabilities to find the total likelihood of exactly one bridge collapsing.
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Homework Statement



Dystopia county has three bridges. In the next year, the Elder bridge has a 17% chance of collapse, the Younger bridge has a 6% chance of collapse, and the Ancient bridge has a 24% chance of collapse. What is the probability that exactly one of these bridges will collapse in the next year? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)


Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



I thought the answer was the average of the 3 probabilities, which is 15.6666%. Then I realized that it would be the chance that each will collapse, not the chance that exactly one will collapse. However, I'm not sure what equation I need to use in order to find this. We've been using combinations and permutations in class, but I'm not sure if they are relevant for this problem.

Thanks
 
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For exactly one bridge to collapse it must be true that the other two bridges don't collapse. So you have:
P(Elder bridge collapses AND Younger bridge doesn't collapse AND Ancient bridge doesn't collapse)
+ P(Elder bridge doesn't collapse AND Younger bridge does collapse AND Ancient bridge doesn't collapse)
+ P(Elder bridge doesn't collapse AND Younger bridge doesn't collapse AND Ancient bridge does collapse)
 


Thanks a lot. I had been working on that one for a while.
 
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