Simple probability question

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around a probability problem involving the distribution of 12 balls into 20 boxes, specifically focusing on the condition that no box receives more than one ball. Participants explore different approaches and hints related to the problem without providing complete solutions.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Technical explanation, Homework-related, Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant suggests that the multinomial distribution may be relevant to the problem, although this is presented as a probable approach.
  • Another participant emphasizes the importance of hints over full solutions to encourage imaginative thinking, proposing that the problem can be reformulated for easier application of a formula.
  • A participant provides a detailed calculation of the number of favorable arrangements and total arrangements, leading to a proposed probability expression without asserting its correctness.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants have not reached a consensus on the best approach or solution to the problem, and multiple viewpoints and methods are presented.

Contextual Notes

There are assumptions regarding the independence of ball placements and the definitions of arrangements that remain unaddressed. The discussion does not resolve the mathematical steps involved in the proposed solutions.

alexmahone
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If 12 balls are thrown at random into 20 boxes, what is the probability that no box will receive more than one ball?

Please give only a hint, and not the full solution.
 
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Alexmahone said:
If 12 balls are thrown at random into 20 boxes, what is the probability that no box will receive more than one ball?

Please give only a hint, and not the full solution.

I believe we share the same attitude: Seeing the full solution is like, killing our imagination. :p

Hint:
The question can be rewritten in another way so that it's very easy for us to apply the formula.

 
My solution:

No. of favourable arrangements:
The 1st ball can be put into any of the 20 boxes, the 2nd ball can can be put into any of the other 19 boxes and so on. So, the number of ways to put 12 balls into 20 boxes so that no box receives more than one ball is 20*19*\cdots*9=\frac{20!}{8!}.

Total no. of arrangements:
The 1st ball can be put into any of the 20 boxes, the 2nd ball can be put into any of the 20 boxes and so on. So, the total number of ways to put 12 balls into 20 boxes is 20^{12}.

So, P=\frac{20!}{8!20^{12}}
 

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