Vanadium 50 said:
Let's improve the analogy - Did the American revolution happen yesterday or in 1900 (factor of 2). If someone were to ask which is right, shouldn't we say neither?
I would say that which is "right" is not the important question. The important question is, which, if either, of these is close enough?
In the case of your analogy, I would agree that neither is close enough, because historically speaking, yesterday is not much more different from the 1770s and 1780s than 1900 was. They're both very different from the time of the American Revolution, and there are many significant historical events in between in both cases, so neither one is close enough. (Note that by this criterion, even saying that the American Revolution happened in the 1790s is not close enough, since the Constitution, a significant historical event, was in between then and the revolution. So I should indeed retract my earlier statement that "two centuries" would be reasonably close. You would need to say two and a half centuries.)
In the case of the OP's question, however, being only a factor of 2 off from the correct answer might well be close enough for many purposes. Sure, you'll be somewhat off when predicting the exact perturbations on test objects in the path of the flyby. But you will correctly predict that no significant disruption of the solar system as a whole will occur.
Whereas being off by a factor of a zillion won't be anywhere near close enough for anything. There you're expecting the solar system to be seriously disrupted, when nothing like that will actually occur.