- #1
Niles
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Homework Statement
Hi all.
At a poll in America, where 1000 people have been asked, 480 people said that they would vote yes on proposition A (it is a fictive proposition), and of course 520 people said they would vote no on proposition A.
I have to find the probability that proposition A will pass.
What I have done is to use the following formula:
[tex]
P = \frac{{(n + 1)!}}{{m!(n - m)!}}f^m (1 - f)^{n - m},
[/tex]
which has been derived in class. Here m is 480, n is 1000. P is the probability of M persons answering "yes" out of N total (so N is the total amount of people in America voting, and M is the amount in America that votes "yes") when we have a sample of n (1000), where m (480) have answered "yes". f is equal to M/N.
My attempt is that if more than 50% vote yes, then prop. A will pass. So I want to integrate P from N/2 to N, but it is not a continuous distribution. I thought of finding P for N/2 (i.e. that 50% will answer "yes"), but that is only the probability of 50% answering yes, and does not include the rest from > 50%.
What would be the most proper approach to this problem?
Thanks in advance.